So, I have a couple problems with these picks. Unlike normal situations, my picks are doing great – but they are also completely dependent on Purdue winning. It makes me uncomfortable for lots of reasons. But that is part of the ride. I always try to pick my Boilers, because I know that sometimes the most effective way of winning the pool is simply being a fan of the school that wins. The Lunatic would never forgive himself if the Boilers won the National Championship, and didn’t pick them.
But the second chance picks are designed to give you a second chance – picking Purdue would basically continue to ride my current picks. And then I will have nothing to root for if my Boilers get beat. And amazing as the 16 remaining teams are, 15 of them are going to get beat But if you don’t pick them all the way, how far do you take them. So many hard decisions.
So, I am going to go with history. There is a post that tends to always happen every year. In the first two rounds, the tournament is always about Cinderella. It is fun to watch teams like St. Peter’s, New Mexico State, Richmond and Iowa State upset a team or two. But at this point in the tournament, it is about teams that won championships that continue. It is hard to win 6 games in a row – typically, the teams that pull that off are ones that won their regular season championship or made a run and won in the pressure of the conference tournament. It also always seems to be a power conference that comes out on top. There are a couple places where I don’t have that luxury – and so I will use it to support teams from my family.
In the West, Gonzaga is the #1 team in the country, so they will continue moving on against Arkansas. Duke is the ACC Regular Season Champion, and something odd happened. They are no longer the favorite. Vegas odds actually list Texas Tech as the favorite. Does giving the Blue Devils a chip on their shoulder change the dynamic. I don’t know – but they are the team who won a championship, and so they beat Texas Tech. Then, I will go with the regular season again. Duke beat Gonzaga – they do it again to reach the Final Four.
In the East, there are no regular season champs or conference tournament champions – well except for St. Peter’s, which would be insane. Purdue takes care of Cinderella – as with the Texas game, I suspect that Zach Edey and Trevion Williams will be too tough to handle inside, and if they put all their attention there, Jaden Ivey destroys them. Between UCLA and UNC, UCLA is probably the better team. But UCLA without Jaime Jaquez Jr – who injured his ankle in the win against St. Mary’s – is not. I have to assume that even if he plays, he is not going to be at his best. I will pick the team I want to see win – which is obviously North Carolina. Who wouldn’t want to see this final anyways – you have two teams in the Boilers and Tar Heels who can go on 20 point runs and then watch as their opponent completely comes back. I will go with my Boilers in this fun game of runs (it also goes along with the strategy of when in doubt, pick the team that is more likely to make it to the game).
In the South, the Pac 12 champs of Arizona play the American champs of Houston. Both teams have multiple weapons, but I still have the image of Bennedict Mathurin scoring almost at will against a really good defensive team in TCU just to watch the one time he missed end up with Christian Koloko coming in an slamming home the rebound. Not to mention, the champions selection tends to always go to the power conference school. Then, you have Villanova – who just came off beating Ohio State – beating Michigan. Villanova totally controlled the game against the Buckeyes. Based on conference standings, the Buckeyes were better than the Wolverines. Transitive theory and champions theory says take the Big East tourney champs. In the final, we will take Arizona since I think that they have more talent (and they won both their regular season and tournament championship). While I technically feel that Villanova did as well in the Big East, due to some games getting cancelled for Providence, the Fryars at 14-3 were the regular season champions compared to Villanova at 16-4.
In the Midwest, Kansas is the Big 12 regular season co-champ and the tournament champ. As mentioned above, technically Providence is the regular season Big East champ. But lets remember that Kansas just beat the Creighton team that crushed Providence by 28 points in the Big East tourney. While it is clear that game was a little bit of a fluke, you still have to figure the Jayhawks will win this game. In the other game, you have two double digit teams in Miami and Iowa State. Miami is the better offensive team, and Iowa State is the better defensive team. For this one, I have to go root for the team many of my family will. I think I might still have relatives on my dad’s side living in Ames – so I will go with Iowa State. In the final, Kansas beat the Cyclones twice in the regular season, so I have to expect that they will win the third game as well.
In the Final Four, Duke has the conference championship – so they sadly beat my Boilermakers. I feel the Big 12 might be playing the best basketball in the tournament, and I think Kansas’ road against Providence and Iowa State is easier than Arizona’s road against Houston and Villanova, so I will take the Jayhawks over the Wildcats. And then, under the same theory of easiest path to be in the game, Kansas will beat Duke to win the championship.
For those who don’t want to have to read through my ramblings, the full picks are below:
| Gonzaga | |||
| Duke | Duke | ||
| UNC | Purdue | ||
| Purdue | Duke | Kansas | |
| Arizona | Kansas | ||
| Villanova | Arizona | ||
| Kansas | Kansas | ||
| Iowa State |
I will be happy for all of these picks but 2 obvious ones to be wrong. I will give up all my picks if it would mean Purdue wins the championship. And then, Taylor’s voice starts to ring in my head again – This hope is treacherous. This daydream is dangerous. This hope is treacherous. I-I-I LIKE IT!!!!