As many of you know, the Lunatic does his insane handicapping of all 67 games. And after writing my reasons for my picks, I realized that it is also the perfect Lunatic preview of the Final Four. Or maybe I am just desperate to not stay up past midnight. It is hard to tell sometimes.
I have had a hard time getting my expert staff together to do our roundtable. Katie’s expert opinion would be it is only 3 more days until this nonsense is over and she can start to watch her TV shows again. Charlie has been busy with his swim team’s end of season awards, soccer practices and a party tonight with his friends, and with his picks eliminated in the pool, he probably doesn’t even care about who wins. And then of course, we have Katie’s rugby match on Saturday. I could probably get my wonderful wife, Elizabeth, to pick the two games with me, but she is being nice enough to let me watch the Stanford / UConn game, so I won’t make her pick. Although she has told me that she wants to let everyone know that she is a plumbing genius, fixing our toilet fill valve in our downstairs bathroom this afternoon.
Maybe I can get them together on Sunday for the championship game. For the Final Four, we will settle for the professional betting opinions of the Crazed Lunatic, live from the Lunatic Casino, so that you don’t need to go to the Handicapping page to find his madness……..
LUNATIC’S DISCLAIMER – For those who do not look at the Lunatic’s handicapping page, please remember that the Lunatic Casino only deals with imaginary money. If I bet for real, I would most definitely jinx any team I pick and lose huge amounts of money. These four teams are all great, and should not have to worry about any crazy curse from a middle-aged sleep-deprived fan. But that fan has to pick someone – it is just for fun.
At this point, the Lunatic could be safe. His current progress against the spreads is 33-30-1, putting him down $17. But his progress against the over/under is 36-26-2, putting him ahead $121. It is crazy that at this point in the tournament that the Lunatic is ahead $104.
There are only 6 potential bets left. The Lunatic could simply say that he is unsure about all 3 games, bet $10 for each of the 6 bets, and walk away with no less than a $44 victory. But any degenerate gambler would never do this. So, neither will the Lunatic. You should always respect a streak, and the Lunatic is on one. Have to take a risk to get a great reward. No one wants to simply leave the Lunatic Casino winning enough to pay for the parking garage outside. Go Big or Go Home!!!!
As I type this, the Lunatic Casino’s host comes over and says, “We love to have you here, Mr. Hodgson. Please accept this comp at our amazing prime rib buffet, and afterwards, maybe you would like to sit down at one of our blackjack tables. We really appreciate your business at our Sportsbook, and maybe you would like to try your luck at one of our other games.”
The Lunatic should be afraid. But he does love a good prime rib. And he definitely loves college basketball. Here we go!!!!
6:09 pm – #1 Kansas (-4) vs #2 Villanova (OVER/UNDER: 133)
Kansas is responsible for knocking off 2 of the best teams in the Big East in Providence (beat by 5) and Creighton (beat by 7). While both of those games got close at times, Kansas never looked like they didn’t have control of the game. Now, they get the best team from the Big East. But here is the problem for Villanova. Villanova basically plays 6 players. Then, Justin Moore, their 2nd leading scorer, tore his achilles in the final minute against Houston. In the last 3 games, other than their 6th man Caleb Daniels, the only other players who have come off Villanova’s bench are Bryan Antoine (who has played 8 minutes over the 3 games) and Chris Arcidiacono (who has played 6 minutes over the 3 games). Maybe the Wildcats top 5 remaining players can play the whole game. Maybe Caleb Daniels can take over Moore’s place in the lineup and someone will step up to take over Moore’s scoring. Kansas would have been the favorite if Moore was in the line-up. Add Moore’s injury and the fact that it is only a 4 point line and you have to take the Jayhawks. Kansas’ last two games fell under 133 and Villanova’s last three fell under 133, and it is unclear who will replace Moore’s scoring for Villanova. So, I would take the under.
LUNATIC’S PICKS – Kansas ($30) / Under ($30)
8:49 pm – #2 Duke (-4) vs #8 North Carolina (OVER/UNDER: 151)
It is kind of crazy that Coach K has led Duke for 42 years, the Blue Devils and Tar Heels have won so many National Championships, and yet this is the first time these two powerhouses have met in the tournament. However, we have the benefit of the ACC regular season to handicap this game. In their first game at Chapel Hill, Duke jumped out to a 31-8 lead, and coasted to a 87-67 victory. In their second game in Coach K’s farewell to Cameron Arena, the Blue Devils led by 7 in the second half, and then North Carolina finished on an amazing run to beat Duke 94-81. I think that the pressure of Coach K’s finale got to the young Blue Devils at Cameron. And you would think that there is a tremendous amount of pressure to get Coach K to the championship game. But I also think that this is the best thing that could have happened to Duke in this pressure packed game. Pride and revenge are interesting motivations. Duke was the better team for 68 of the 80 minutes these teams played this year. So, while UNC is playing like a different team from that first game – having won 10 of their last 11 games, you have to pick the ACC regular season champs in this game. And since both games covered the over, I will take Duke in a high scoring game.
LUNATIC’S PICKS – Duke ($30) / Over ($30)