As we know, I always do horrible with the seeding in my prediction of what the bracket will be. I was so bad that almost everyone on the Bracket Matrix beat my predictions. But in this part of the Selection Committee / Bracketology, we truly allow hindsight and the performances of the teams to grade both the Selection Committee and the Crazed Lunatic.

It is important to say that part of this is a little unfair – matchups totally matter. One 9 seed ended up having to play against North Carolina, while one 9 seed ended up going up against San Diego State. Hindsight makes it pretty clear that one team had a tougher matchup than the other.

Also, it is important to realize that performance doesn’t completely mean the seeding was wrong. St. Peter’s was a 15 seed who made it to the Elite 8. Just because they managed to go on a run in the tournament and beat Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, it certainly doesn’t mean that the Peacocks should have been a 2 seed when their best victory in the regular season was their conference tournament title game against NET #90 Iona.

But the results were stunning to me when I looked at them. so here are the complete details. I have removed all the teams that the Lunatic and Selection Committee agreed on. I also removed Notre Dame and Indiana because it felt unfair to include them when I had Indiana as an 11 seed and Notre Dame as a 12 seed (which in retrospect was so wrong) in the wrong play-in game. That leaves us with 4 groups. Two based on if the Lunatic or the Selection Committee disagreed by 1 seed line, and two based on if we disagreed by 2 or more seed lines. These groups don’t end up being equal because if I am off by 2 or more seeds, it creates a lot of ways the other seeds could fall…..

Also, we can quickly talk about the teams I missed. Wyoming and Rutgers were the teams that I missed. Both of them ended up in the two play-in games and lost. I had Oklahoma in the play-in game and Texas A&M as a 10 seed. Oklahoma beat Missouri St and lost to St. Bonaventure in the NIT. The Aggies beat Alcorn State, Oregon, Wake Forest, and St. Bonaventure before losing to Xavier at the last second in the NIT championship. But you can’t figure out if making the NIT championship would correspond to winning a NCAA tourney game.

Also – so we have a performance measure – we will predict their performance based on assuming they should go as far as their seed……

Selection Committee put 2+ seed ahead of the Lunatic

There are 6 teams that based on seed would have gone 4-6. Miami FL’s run to the Elite 8 saved this group to make them even with expectations. But what was stunning to me was some of the sizes of the losses. All these teams were off by 2 with the exception of Seton Hall, where I thought the Pirates should have been an 11 seed instead of an 8 seed.

• 6 – LSU (-1) – Lost to Iowa State (5)
• 7 – Michigan State (EVEN) – Beat Davidson (1), Lost to Duke by 5
• 8 – Seton Hall (-1) – Lost to TCU (27) – That is right – they lost by 27 points.
• 8 – San Diego St (-1) – Lost to Creighton (3)
• 9 – Marquette (EVEN) – Lost to UNC (32) – That is right – they lost by 32 points!!! They weren’t supposed to win as a 9 seed, but I feel they should be -1 on principle of losing by more than 30….
• 10 – Miami FL (+3) – Beat USC (2), Auburn (18), Iowa St (14), Lost to Kansas (26). We will give the SC credit here. But should be mentioned that this is +2 only because I put the Hurricanes in the wrong play-in game. And it is a little awkward, since technically, the 10 seed should beat the 11 seed in Iowa State…. But still, the Lunatic can be generous – this puts the SC even.

Selection Committee put 1 seed ahead of the Lunatic

The SC had 9 teams which were 1 seed better than the Lunatic’s seed. With the 2 seed supposed to win 3 games, the 3 and 4 seeds to win 2 games, and the two 6 seeds to win 1 game, they are expected to go 9-9. With both 6 seeds losing their first round games, this group fell 1 game below expectations (although I guess I could call them even if Duke beats UNC tonight).

• 2 – Duke (+1) – Beat CS Fullerton (17), Michigan St (5), Texas Tech (5), Arkansas (9) to make it to the Final Four. I mistakenly switched Duke and Tennessee – and then Duke went and won the West regional. Will the Blue Devils be able to win Coach K one last title – only time will tell….
• 3 – Wisconsin (-1) – Beat Colgate (7), Lost to Iowa State (5) – not sure they should get punished more for losing to an 11 seed, but I already set the rules quickly to get this written.
• 4 – Providence (EVEN) – Beat South Dakota St (9), Richmond (28), Lost to Kansas (5). The Fryars had a great Final 4 – they probably should get credit for being the closest to beating Kansas – I was wrong about the Big East here. So, see the rules off-set. Wisconsin should be penalized, Providence should get extra credit – we are all even.
• 6 – Alabama (-1) – Lost to Notre Dame (14) – remember Notre Dame also had to win a game to get to play Alabama and then fly the next morning from Dayton to San Diego to play the Crimson Tide.
• 6 – Colorado State (-1) – Lost to Michigan (12).
• 10 – Davidson (EVEN) – Lost to Michigan State (1)
• 12 – Richmond (+1) – Beat Iowa (4), Lost to Providence (28)
• 14 – Longwood (EVEN) – Lost to Tennessee (32)
• 14 – Yale (EVEN) – Lost to Purdue (22)

Lunatic put 2 seeds ahead of the Selection Committee

The Lunatic only had 3 teams where he felt they were 2 better seed lines than the committee – but 2 of those teams were incredible. Based on seed, the 8 seed should have made them 1-3. Instead, they went 6-3….. So, they performed 5 games above expectations

• 8 – North Carolina (+3) – Beat Marquette (32), Baylor (7), UCLA (7), St. Peter’s (20) to make the Final 4. Since I mentioned it with Miami, technically UNC was favored against St. Peter’s as the 8 seed should also beat the 15 seed. But rules are rules….
• 11 – Iowa State (+2) – Beat LSU (5), Beat Wisconsin (5), Lost to Miami FL (14) – I gave the Cyclones a 9 seed thanks to all their big victories, and they rewarded me with a Sweet 16 performance.
• 11 – Virginia Tech (EVEN) – Lost Texas (8) – surprisingly the only ACC team to not win a game was the Tournament Champion.

Lunatic put 1 seed ahead of the Selection Committee

There were a lot of these teams (14 to be exact) – The 3 and 4 seeds should win 2 games, and the 5 seed, two 7 seeds and 8 seed should have won 1. So, they should have gone 8-14. Instead, they went 15-14 to go 7 games over expectations, including two teams to the Elite 8. Also, want to mention that there were 10 teams based on seed that pulled an upset in the first round. 7 of those 10 teams were ones the Lunatic seeded better than the Selection Committee.

• 3 – Tennessee (-1) – Beat Longwood (32), Lost to Michigan (8) – my rewarding the Vols for the SEC tournament championship was actually one of my seeding mistakes. I can’t be perfect.
• 4 – UCLA (EVEN) – Beat Akron (4), St. Mary’s (16), Lost to North Carolina (7) – have to thank my rules since a 4 seed should beat an 8 seed – but a 4 seed as the committee made them or a 3 seed as I suggested losing in the Sweet 16 is the right ending from a seed expectation.
• 5 – Houston (+2) – Beat UAB (14), Illinois (15), Arizona (12), Lost to Villanova (6) – the Cougars upset on #1 Arizona was one of the great stories of the tournament.
• 7 – Murray State (EVEN) – Beat San Francisco (5), Lost to St. Peter’s (10) – in retrospect, I wish they had knocked Cinderella out of the tournament so that they didn’t beat Purdue.
• 7 – USC (-1) – Lost to Miami FL (2) – this is a double whammy for me since Miami was one of the teams I seeded worst than the SC and was totally wrong.
• 8 – Boise St (-1) – Lost to Memphis (11) – this is going to turn into a wash for me, because while I thought Boise State should have been a 7 seed, I also…..
• 9 – Memphis (+1) – Beat Boise State (11), Lost to Gonzaga (4). I also thought Memphis should have been an 8 seed. And they almost knocked the Zags out of the tournament.
• 9 – TCU (+1) – Beat Seton Hall (27), Lost to Arizona (5). As with Memphis, TCU almost took out a #1 seed, losing in OT.
• 9 – Creighton (+1) – Beat San Diego State (3). Lost to Kansas (7). The Blue Jays were my third 9 seed that won after I thought they should be an 8 seed.
• 10 – Loyola IL (EVEN) – Lost to Ohio State (13). Willing to admit I was wrong here – although I would have loved the Missouri Valley tourney champ to do well
• 11 – Michigan (+2) – Beat Colorado State (12), Tennessee (8), Lost to Villanova (8) – the Wolverines make my second team to be happy the committee seeded them instead of me (since a 9 seed would have put them against a 1 seed in the second round).
• 13 – Chattanooga (EVEN) – Lost to Illinois (1). The Mocs almost pulled off the 4/13 upset against the Big 10 regular season co-champ.
• 15 – Jacksonville State (EVEN) – Lost to Auburn (19). Lets be fair, the 14 and 15 seeds typically lose these games by double digits – but I would have liked to see them do better than this.
• 15 – St. Peter’s (+3) – Beat Kentucky (6). Murray State (10), Purdue (3), Lost to North Carolina (20). Makes sense that the last team on this list was the Cinderella team of the tournament as the first 15 seed to make the Elite 8. Just wish it wasn’t through my Boilermakers.

So, lets summarize. For teams that the Selection Committee seeded better than the Lunatic, those teams finished overall with a record of 1 game below expectations. But only 3 of the 15 teams won more games than they were supposed to, and 6 of the teams lost before they were supposed to (and only 6 of the 15 teams managed to win 1 game in the tournament).

For teams that the Lunatic seeded better than the Selection committee, those 17 teams finished overall with a record of 12 games above expectations. 8 of the 17 teams won more games than they were supposed to while only 3 lost before they were supposed to. 11 of the 17 teams won their first game in the tournament.

So, maybe the Crazed Lunatic does a horrible job of predicting where the Selection Committee will seed all the teams in the tournament. But based on how the teams did this year, maybe the Crazed Lunatic should be the one doing the seeding…..