9:20 pm EST – #1 Kansas (-4) vs #8 North Carolina (O/U: 152)

LUNATIC’S PICKS: Kansas, Over

KANSAS STARTING LINE-UP

• G – #3 Dajuan Harris, Jr (5.5 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 4.2 APG) – 6’1″ SO
• G – #30 Ochai Agbaji (18.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.6 APG) – 6’5″ SR
• G – #2 Christian Braun (14.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.8 APG) – 6’6″ JR
• F – #10 Jalen Wilson (11.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.8 APG) – 6’8″ SO
• F – #33 David McCormack (10.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 0.9 APG) – 6’10” SR

NORTH CAROLINA STARTING LINE-UP

• G – #4 R.J Davis (13.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.7 APG) – 6’0″ SO
• G – #2 Caleb Love (16.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.6 APG) – 6’4″ SO
• G – #1 Leaky Black (5.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.8 APG) – 6’8″ SR
• F – #45 Brady Manek (15.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.8 APG) – 6’9″ SR
• F – #5 Armando Bacot (16.3 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 1.5 APG) – 6’10” JR

Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji is the Jayhawks leading scorer, and as was shown in the game against Villanova, he can light it up from outside. Christian Braun also can drive to the basket to score, and the two Jayhawks big-men (David McCormack and Jalen Wilson) work well with each other in the paint. In the Villanova game, McCormack went 10-12 from the field to score 25 points – he was unstoppable.

North Carolina’s leading scorer and rebounder is Armando Bacot. He plays with a tremendous amount of intensity, and is really good at drawing fouls – as both of Duke’s centers played with 4 fouls throughout the game. R.J. Davis is lightning fast when he drives to the lane, and Caleb Love is the type of guard who can totally take over a game. The best outside shooter is forward Brady Manek – which can help free up space drawing one of the other team’s forward away from the lane.

Much is made about the fast pace that North Carolina plays, but Kansas actually averages more points per game than UNC (Kansas averages 78.6 pts vs. UNC’s 77.5 pts). As we saw in the UNC / Duke game, fast-paced games can be highly entertaining, so I have high hopes for this game as both teams like to play fast.

Kansas is a little bit deeper and more willing to use their bench – with Remy Martin and Mitch Lightfoot. North Carolina’s bench played 13 minutes in the game against Duke (for perspective, Martin and Lightfoot played 30 against Villanova). The Tar Heels first substitution in the Duke game in the second half was with 5 minutes left because Bacot had to come off the court with an ankle injury. Don’t be surprised if North Carolina basically goes with their starters the whole game – if Bacot’s injury becomes a problem, or someone gets into foul trouble, UNC depth could create a problem for them.

North Carolina is a great feel-good story. At 12-6 and struggling in the start of the ACC season, it was believed that the Tar Heels would not even make it to the tournament. They are now 17-3 and look like a completely different team. That slow start is why they were an 8 seed – but they are clearly much more dangerous than an 8 seed. Caleb Love and RJ Davis are explosive guards who can get to the basket, and Armando Bacot has been a force inside. But as with Villanova, Kansas might have caught a huge break. Bacot injured his ankle late in the victory against Duke. I am sure he is going to play – but I am not sure he is going to be 100%. And he will need to be 100% against Kansas’s David McCormack. And the Jayhawks have two guards, Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun, who also can score.

If Bacot isn’t at 100%, I don’t see how they stop McCormack. Sometimes, teams struggle because of pace. UNC plays a high-tempo game that leads to large fast runs where a couple of misses leads to a 6-8 point swing in just a minute. But Kansas seems to be a team that can play at any pace – so I don’t think UNC’s style of play will phase them. I expect this to be a high scoring game, no matter who wins.

At the end of the day, there are four things that lean me towards Kansas.

• The polls give you a view of how the college basketball world view the talent on the top teams. Kansas started the season in the pre-season poll at 3rd behind only Gonzaga and UCLA. Kansas never dropped out of the top 10, and finished the season back in 3rd – behind only Gonzaga and Arizona. UNC never at any point in the season broke into the top 10. They started at 19th, moved up to 18th in the first week before eventually dropping out of the polls. They did sneak back into the polls at 25th after beating Duke, but dropped to 32nd in the final rankings after losing early in the ACC tournament. From a simple talent perspective, Kansas is believed to be the better team by the polls. Of course, we all know games aren’t played on paper – otherwise, we would have Gonzaga and Arizona playing for the title. But from a prediction perspective, the polls pick Kansas.
• I am very nervous about Bacot’s ankle injury. He was a warrior in the Duke game and played through the pain of the injury – but he also didn’t look the same once he came back in. UNC won at that point because Caleb Love took over the game. Kansas is a very talented team in the paint, and if Bacot isn’t 100%, the Jayhawks are going to dominate here.
• Normally, at some point in the pool, I mention the fact that champions win championships. Almost inevitably, teams that have won either a share of their conference regular season championship or a conference tournament championship advance to the finals. There have been 36 tournaments starting in 1985 since the field moved to 64+ teams. Assuming I did my research correctly, only 6 of those tournaments saw a team that had not won either of those championships take home the national championship (1985 Villanova, 1988 Kansas, 1989 Michigan, 1997 Arizona, 2014 Connecticut, and 2015 Duke). Kansas won a share of the Big 12 regular season championship and followed it up by winning the tournament as well. UNC was the runner-up in the ACC and did not make it to the finals of the ACC tournament. Considering many view the Big 12 as the best conference this year, it only makes sense to pick the team that won that conference’s championship.
• I really don’t like Kansas. I have never been a fan of the Big 12 – probably because of being burned whenever I pick them to do well. But Kansas bothers me more – and that is because of the NCAA pay-to-play scandal. Kansas was prominently featured in the FBI investigation regarding a pay-to-play scandal with Adidas (along with Arizona, Auburn, Louisville and LSU). Because of this, in September 2019, the NCAA notified the school of 5 Level I allegations against the program, including one against Bill Self. While the schools obviously all have fought the allegations, Louisville, Arizona and LSU have since parted ways with their coaches responsible for the scandal. Kansas’ response was to offer Bill Self a lifetime contract in April 2021, that will guarantee him $5.41 million per year and has a clause in it that states that Self can not be fired by the school for infractions that were known before the signing of the contract. So, there is overwhelming evidence that he cheated, and his reward is to coach at the school for a guaranteed $5.41 million for as long as he wants to coach. Meanwhile, it is well-known that my family roots for the Tar Heels. For full disclosure, UNC isn’t innocent in scandals – still not sure how they survived the academic scandals they were involved with. But with my father-in-law being a UNC alum, Elizabeth, the kids and I always cheer on the Tar Heels. And we all know what happens when I cheer for a team. I can’t even act like I want Kansas to win – the Lunatic Curse sees right through this. How else can we explain that all my Final 4 picks lost in the Sweet 16 (one of them to a 15 seed) except for one team. And that team keeps winning…….. As my wife says, “Stay classy, Kansas!!!”

With all these things in Kansas’ favor, and the Jayhawks only need to win by 4 points to cover, the obvious thing is to pick them to win. Whether you believe in historical facts like 30 of 36 championships are won by a conference champion, teams at the top of the polls tend to win, if it is a 50/50 coin flip when both teams are healthy, the odds change if one of the team has their leading scorer injured, or you simply believe in the fact that the Lunatic can’t cheer for a team that is going to win, the bet still ends up the same. If nothing can stop them, it only makes sense to pick them. You can’t even believe that Karma is eventually going to come and knock off the Jayhawks. To be fair, it is only fitting that since the NCAA hasn’t been able to wrap up their investigation in over 2 1/2 years, the NCAA chairman will have to stand on that stage and shake hands with Bill Self and hand him the trophy. So, it is a 50/50 chance on whether Karma is using this opportunity to sting Kansas or sting the NCAA.

It should be a fun game. Both teams are playing amazing at the moment and have had stretches where it looks like no one can beat them. It should be a fast-paced game with lots of offense. And while in the Lunatic’s preview, he has to give a pick, the truth is that games are not played on paper, they are won on the court. It should be a lot of fun to watch the Jayhawks and Tar Heels compete for the national championship.