Well, so much for my simulator. The only double digit seed it predicted would win was Nevada (52% chance) against Nevada, and Boise State (56% chance) against Northwestern. With all the talented double digit seeds available (especially in the 5/12 games), the only teams it thinks can pull the upsets are from the Mountain West (including the team losing by 21 points at the moment to Arizona State – if you are wondering, if Arizona State plays TCU, TCU goes from a 48% chance to a 60% chance). I guess one day is not enough time to build a simulator.
So, I am going to stick with what I had. In my dream picks, I will change my final from what I said in the podcast. It is ridiculous to think that Texas will lose a tournament game in Houston – but my dream pick would be to have to keep playing teams we already played. So, Purdue will beat Gonzaga in the final.
In my sane picks, I keep the same final 4, but have Alabama beat Texas. Here are links to the full set of picks.