As always, I am going down to the very end. I am not really happy with my bubble. And so I decided to do what I felt better about based on how teams played towards the end. I will probably regret that choice when I see the actual bracket come out.

A quick note since the Memphis / UAB game is close. UAB would steal a bid – my last team in was Indiana, so if the Blazers win, they would kick the Hoosiers out and move Drake up to an 11 seed so that they could be placed as a 12 seed.

An editor’s note: After Michigan’s win, I reassessed the Big 10 rankings. Remember, going in Maryland was ranked 11th, Wisconsin was 18th and Michigan was 22nd. I assumed Wisconsin would get a boost from a 5 seed to a 3 seed with a Big 10 championship. But with Michigan winning, I moved back to the original order of the polls. I did debate about moving Michigan up one more line to the 4 seed, but I didn’t see #10 Clemson, #13 Louisville, or #14 Texas A&M being kicked out to make room for them. I also debated if Wisconsin would fall back to 5, but I struggled with moving the Badgers that many spots due to a close loss. At the end of the day, I am hedging my bet. Last year, no team moved more than 1 seed line from their poll ranking – and so, it makes more sense to move Wisconsin up 2 spots (18 to 16) and Michigan up 5 spots on the S-curve (22 to 17 which still leaves the Wolverines as a 5 seed).

Also, I am thrilled that Memphis won the American, and so I did not have to shrink the bubble.

• 1 – Duke, Houston, Auburn, Florida
• 2 – St. John’s, Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan St
• 3 – Texas Tech, Iowa St, Kentucky, Maryland
• 4 – Louisville, Clemson, Texas A&M, Wisconsin
• 5 – Michigan, Arizona, BYU, Purdue
• 6 – Illinois, Oregon, Missouri, Memphis
• 7 – St. Mary’s, Marquette, Ole Miss, UCLA
• 8 – Creighton, Gonzaga, Kansas, Connecticut
• 9 – Baylor, Georgia, Mississippi St, New Mexico
• 10 – Utah St, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, North Carolina
• 11 (PLAY-IN) – Oklahoma, San Diego St, Xavier, Indiana
• 11 – VCU, Colorado St
• 12 – Drake, UC-San Diego, McNeese St, Liberty
• 13 – Yale, High Point, Akron, Grand Canyon
• 14 – Lipscomb, Troy, UNC-Wilmington, Montana
• 15 – Wofford, Robert Morris, Bryant, Omaha
• 16 – Norfolk St, SIU-Edwardsville
• 16 (PLAY-IN) – American, Mt St Mary’s, Alabama St, Saint Francis PA

FIRST 4 OUT – West Virginia, Boise State, Texas, SMU

SECOND 4 OUT – Ohio St, UC Irvine, Villanova, George Mason

I know that a lot of the bracketologists don’t like teams like North Carolina and Xavier. But at some point, if we are going to give teams like Oklahoma credit for their losses because of how hard their schedule is, than the same has to go for North Carolina and Xavier.

Lets look at the Tar Heels. North Carolina went 22-13 and 15-8 in the ACC (thanks to the tourney games). Oklahoma went 20-13 and 7-13 in the SEC. You could mention that Oklahoma went 7-11 in Quad 1 games while UNC went 1-12 in Quad 1 games. And that is fair. But every Quad 1 game is not the same.

Both teams played Auburn (UNC lost by 13 instead of 28). Both teams played Florida (UNC lost by 6 instead of 22). Both teams played Alabama (UNC lost by 15 instead of 28). Oklahoma gets the edge on their 5 pt victory over Louisville (UNC lost by 13). Oklahoma also has some nice wins over Arizona, Missouri and Michigan (UNC only has UCLA). Oklahoma has 5 wins against bubble teams (but you look deeper at that and you realize that all 5 of those victories are against teams with losing records in the SEC). Sadly for the Lunatic, he let most of those teams with losing records in because that is what the committee will likely do.

The teams that gave me the biggest struggle was Xavier, Indiana and West Virginia. I picked Xavier because I felt going 13-7 in the Big East was simply better than going 10-10 in either the Big 10 or Big 12. The last memory I have of Xavier is them losing by 2 points in an exciting game against Marquette after they entered the Big East tournament on a 7 game winning streak (including a win over Creighton). My last memory of West Virginia was them losing by 7 in the Big 12 tournament to last place Colorado and their last two games against tourney teams they lost by 20.

That memory ended up being the difference between Indiana and West Virginia for the last spot. Both teams are 19-13. Indiana lost twice recently to Oregon, but both games were closer than 20 point blow-outs. And they also have the relatively recent victories over Purdue and Michigan State. With the teams resumes looking so close, I felt that the Hoosiers were simply played better.

I will probably be wrong – the committee will probably choose West Virginia and Texas just to spite me. The tournament selection show is only 30 minutes away. So exciting!!!