Well – I have so much that I should do. Everything has taken me longer than I remember it, and so the idea of handicapping the 4 play-in games and 32 first rounds games scares me. There are some fascinating stories out there that need to be discussed – such as the media criticizing the committee for selecting North Carolina, and the ridiculous fact that the West Virginia governor wants to investigate the NCAA for corruption for leaving out the Mountaineers. Not to mention I need to make my picks. So, I will spend my time trying to help all of you stomp me. Because that makes sense.

Ken Pomeroy is one of the premier statisticians in the college basketball analytics world, and so it makes sense that people have researched how his model has done over time.

My understanding is that every champion since his model came out in 2002 has had an offensive efficiency ranking in the top 40 and a defensive efficiency ranking in the top 25. Last year, UConn was 1 in offense and 11 in defense, so it certainly held true. So lets see who that narrows the field down to…..we will list their offensive and defensive ranking in parentheses.

• 1 – Duke (3, 4)
• 1 – Florida (1, 10)
• 1 – Houston (10, 2)
• 1 – Auburn (2, 12)
• 2 – Tennessee (18, 3)
• 2 – Michigan State (27, 5)
• 3 – Iowa State (20, 9)
• 4 – Maryland (28, 6)
• 5 – Clemson (24, 16)
• 8 – Louisville (29, 21)
• 7 – UCLA (35, 17)
• 6 – Ole Miss (31, 25)

That had a bunch of teams I was not expecting – so a little different from last year when all the teams that qualified were Top 3 seeds.

It is also interesting the teams that missed either the offensive or defensive cut by 10.

• 4 – Texas A&M (44, 7)
• 7 – Kansas (48, 11)
• 5 – Michigan (47, 14)-
• 11 – VCU (41, 23)
• 3 – Wisconsin (13, 27)
• 7 – Marquette (32, 28)
• 8 – Gonzaga (9, 29)
• 5 – Oregon (39, 31)
• 2 – Alabama (4, 32)
• 4 – Arizona (12, 33)

Finally, the top 10 defensive teams with bad offenses (well, bad enough to miss the above lists):

• 2 – St. John’s (65, 1)
• 7 – St. Mary’s (56, 8)

And of course, we can’t leave out the top 10 offensive teams with bad defenses:

• 6 – Missouri (5, 73)
• 3 – Texas Tech (6, 37)
• 4 – Purdue (7, 63)
• 3 – Kentucky (8, 57)

So, in a short blog, if history repeats itself, we have managed to reduce the field that can win the NCAA Championship from 68 to 12 without playing a game. Of course, championships are not won on paper, they are won on the court. Hopefully, this short blog can help you with your picks!