What to write about while the two 16 seeds play. I could actually make my picks – that would be productive. So obviously we can’t do that. Lets do the upset analysis.
So, if you are really looking to pick an upset, you should be analyzing matchups, health, etc. Lets face it, everything Purdue will get upset because they have been downright awful the last few weeks. Some will select Iowa State because of the news that Keshon Gilbert will miss the tournament with an injury. A great strategy is to actually pick a top seed that is ripe for an upset and going with it. With all I have to still do, I can’t analyze matchups. It is certainly a strategy, but there is lots to blog about.
Some will go crazy with the 9-11 seeds. Lets face it, 9 seeds recently have won more games that 8 seeds – it almost isn’t an upset any more. 10 and 11 seeds tend to be the “Last In”, and often, a couple of them end up determined to prove all the critics wrong and the selection committee correct by winning their game. I could end up blogging for hours about all of these teams, so we will skip that as well.
So, lets talk about the honest piece. Most of us – and in many cases, myself included, don’t know anything about the Akron’s and Omaha’s of the world. But we can use a reasonable assumption to learn more. If a team has not played a close game against a tournament team, they probably aren’t going to magically beat teams like Michigan State and St. John’s. In fact, even if I list a team, you should probably not pick a 14, 15, or 16 seed. But if you are feeling crazy, here is a list of teams to look into.
- HOT – This is a team who has beat a tournament at-large team (top 11 seeds)
- WARM – This is a team who has beat a top 100 NET team or at least had a single digit loss to a top 11 seed.
- COLD – This means no one from the seed line meets the requirement and so the Lunatic has to guess at who might be a reasonable choice.
16 seeds
- Norfolk State (WARM) – For a 16 seed, they beat High Point, came close to Stanford, and only lost by 15 to Tennessee. Not bad for a 16 seed.
15 seeds
- Wofford (COLD) – They had the best performance on the Lunatic models as well as the best win of the group (a 3 pt road victory at St. Louis)
14 seeds
- Troy (WARM) – It barely qualifies, but they have two victories against Sun Belt regular-season co-champion Arkansas State
13 seeds
- Yale (WARM) – They beat fellow 13 seed Akron, and also only lost to Purdue by 8 points
- Grand Canyon (WARM) – They beat Stanford by 7 points, and also only lost to Georgia by 5 points.
- High Point (WARM) – They beat the 2nd place team from the American, North Texas by 5 points at home.
12 seeds
- Colorado State (HOT) – The Mt West champ probably shouldn’t be a part of this, but they are a 12 seed – they have 2 wins against Utah State and a win against San Diego St (not to mention the 3 wins against Boise St that got them in the tournament)
- UC San Diego (HOT) – They also have a victory against Utah State. They also have a couple wins over UC-Irvine and a close loss to San Diego St.
- Liberty (WARM) – They have a win against fellow 12 seed McNeese St (by 4) and a 2 point win over Kansas St.
- McNeese St (WARM) – They have close losses to Alabama (8) and Mississippi St (3) and a victory against North Texas.
So, there you go, lots of interesting 12 seeds. The 13 seeds also demonstrated they likely could be in a competitive game. Then, things get bleak. Of course, some 14, 15 or 16 team comes out of nowhere to be Cinderella, but the statistics don’t really point out who will be wearing that glass slipper.