So – now that I have picked based on my heart instead of my logic or my statistics, it only makes sense to know what the model would have done (and you can see why I didn’t use it).

In the first round, I will also show you how my very basic model that predicts the margin does compared to the Vegas lines (which I also might have tended to ignore on my handicapping – maybe that is why I do great on the over/unders and horrible on the spreads).

SWEET 16 – model predicts all 8 favorites

• Auburn (-8.5) over Arizona – model predicts Auburn by 8.8
• Michigan State (-3.5) over Ole Miss – model predicts Michigan State by 3.8
• Florida (-6.5) over Maryland – model predicts Florida by 3.9
• Texas Tech (-5.5) over Arkansas – model predicts Texas Texas by 6.3
• Duke (-9) over Arizona – model predicts Duke by 7.4
• Alabama (-5.5) over BYU – model predicts Alabama by 5.9
• Houston (-8) over Purdue – model predicts Houston by 8.7
• Tennessee (-4.5) over Kentucky – model predicts Tennessee by 3

ELITE 8 – all the favorites win

• Auburn beats Michigan State by 6.5
• Florida beats Texas Tech by 4.2
• Duke beats Alabama by 4.8
• Houston beats Tennessee by 3.7

FINAL 4

• Auburn beats Florida by 1.5
• Duke beats Houston by 2.3

CHAMPIONSHIP

• Duke beats Auburn by 1.6

I just can’t pick the favorites all the way through. I am sure there is some creative way to pick some upsets based on lines that are close (such as picking Ole Miss, Maryland and Kentucky based on the model thinking the line is with 4 points) – but what is the right value – is it 2 points, 3 points, 4 points, whatever gives me 4 upsets, etc.

So, for those of you looking for some statistical help in the future rounds, my simple model is within a point of 5 of the 8 games, so it gives a decent guide. Of course, we don’t play the games on paper……

Anyways, enjoy the statistics and of course, the games, and good luck with your picks.