Because bracketology has become such a popular thing and because the Selection Committee has been criticized in the past for a lack of clarity into their decisions, the NCAA has done a few things to try to provide a more open environment. One thing they did was they do a mock selection committee session with the press to allow them to go through the process that the committee does – which would be such a fun thing for a crazed basketball fan like the Lunatic. But the big thing that they did was they give us a preview into their thoughts by releasing their top 16 with 3 weeks left in the season. So, lets look at what they did.

1 seeds

• Michigan (AP 1, Coaches 1, NET 1)
• Duke (AP 3, Coaches 3, NET 2)
• Arizona (AP 4, Coaches 4, NET 3)
• Iowa State (AP 6, Coaches 6, NET 6)

2 seeds

• UConn (AP 5, Coaches 5, NET 10)
• Houston (AP 2, Coaches 2, NET 8)
• Illinois (AP 10, Coaches 10, NET 4)
• Purdue (AP 7, Coaches 7, NET 7)

3 seeds

• Florida (AP 12, Coaches 11, NET 9)
• Kansas (AP 8, Coaches 12, NET 13)
• Nebraska (AP 9, Coaches 9, NET 11)
• Gonzaga (AP 11, Coaches 8, NET 5)

4 seeds

• Texas Tech (AP 13, Coaches 13, NET 17)
• Michigan State (AP 15, Coaches 15, NET 12)
• Vanderbilt (AP 19, Coaches 18, NET 15)
• Virginia (AP 14, Coaches 14, NET 16)

So, nothing too surprising. The only NET team left out was Louisville (#14). The only AP team left out was North Carolina (#16). The only Coaches team left out was St. John’s (#16).

Basically, if the polls and NET rankings agreed, the committee did as well. Michigan, Duke and Arizona were all top 4 teams – and so they were all 1 seeds. Purdue was 7th in all 3 rankings, so they were a 2 seed. Florida and Nebraska were all between 9-12, so they were 3 seeds. And Virginia was between 14-16, so they were a 4 seed. The only place where this didn’t happen was Iowa St – who were 6th in all 3 rankings but took the final 1 seed.

The committee was a little bit more variable when they didn’t agree. They seemed to agree with the polls when it came to UConn, Gonzaga and Texas Tech. But they seemed to agree with the NET ranking when it came to ranking Houston, Illinois, Kansas and Vanderbilt. But still, no one seemed to ever get a ranking that was more than 1 seed line away from any of their rankings.

And that probably should all make sense. The polls are supposed to be people who really know basketball – and so if they all vote and come up with their top 16, the fact the committee agreed with that makes sense. Same thing with the computer rankings, which are supposed to be using all the data to come up with the best teams.

One other piece of interest is some research I have done on the selection committee process. According to Jeff Borzello’s ESPN article, there are seven statistics that they look at. Three are considered resume-based – KPI, ESPN’s Strength of Record, and Wins above Bubble (WAB). Three are predictive – BPI, KenPom, and BartTorvik. The seventh is the NCAA’s NET ranking. NCAA Vice President of Basketball Dan Gavitt said the committee tends to lean towards resume metrics in selecting the field while predictive metrics become more important in seeding debates. But he highlighted the growing importance of WAB when it comes to inclusion in the field. The Lunatic will have to keep that in mind as he does his bracketology.

But there is one thing that has happened since then that really puts something into perspective. How hard it is to consistently win in college basketball, and the amazing task that the eventual champion will perform by winning 6 straight games in March.

I think while we could argue about 1 or 2 teams, these are clearly the top 16 teams at that time in college basketball. So, let see how they have done in the following week since the rankings came out.

• Michigan (L vs 2 – Duke (N), W vs Minnesota, W at 7 – Illinois)
• Duke (W vs 1 – Michigan (N), W at Notre Dame, W vs 16 – Virginia)
• Arizona (W at 6 – Houston, W at Baylor, W vs 10 – Kansas)
• Iowa State (L at BYU, W at Utah, L vs 13 – Texas Tech)
• UConn (W at Villanova, W vs St. John’s, W vs Seton Hall)
• Houston (L vs 3 – Arizona, L at 10 – Kansas, W vs Colorado)
• Illinois (L at UCLA, L vs 1 – Michigan)
• Purdue (L vs 14 – Michigan State)
• Florida (W at Ole Miss, W at Texas, W vs Arkansas)
• Kansas (L vs Cincinnati, W vs 6 – Houston, L at 3 – Arizona)
• Nebraska (W vs Penn State, W vs Maryland, W at USC)
• Gonzaga (W vs Pacific, W vs Portland, L at St. Mary’s)
• Texas Tech (W vs Kansas State, W vs Cincinnati, W at 4 – Iowa State)
• Michigan State (W vs Ohio State, W at 7 – Purdue)
• Vanderbilt (L vs Tennessee, W vs Georgia, L at Kentucky)
• Virginia (W vs Miami FL, W vs NC State, L at 2 – Duke)

So, of the top 16 teams, 9 of them couldn’t even get through their next 2-3 games before losing to someone (and 5 of those teams lost to teams not part of the top 16). And only 4 have managed to stay undefeated with a win over a fellow top 16 team (Duke, Arizona, Texas Tech and Michigan St). 5 of the top 16 teams have actually lost twice since the rankings were released.

To win the national championship, you need to win 6 straight games. And you are going to have to do that against the best teams in the country – as the last week has shown, it is hard enough to simply win 6 straight games, especially if you are not playing at home.

It should be a great tournament. So excited for March to be here.