The Miami (OH) Redhawks has a chance at history tonight. According to an article that I read on ncaa.com, 20 teams during the NCAA Tournament era have gone undefeated during the regular season. Tonight at 9 pm, Miami (OH) has a chance to become the 21st, but they will have to survive a road game at the 15-15 Ohio Bobcats.
Earlier this week, the talking heads started to debate if the Redhawks lose in the MAC conference tournament. And since today, the first #1 seed lost in their conference tournament as Belmont got beat by Drake in the Missouri Valley quarterfinals, the reality that an upset can happen feels more realistic than before.
But the debate went wild last weekend when ex-Auburn coach Bruce Pearl made this statement on the Big East telecast. “Here’s the deal. Are we going to select the 68 most deserving teams? Or are we going to select the 68 best teams?” he said. “If we’re selecting the 68 best teams, then Miami (Ohio) is going to have to win their tournament to qualify as a champion, because as an at-large, they are not one of the best teams in the country, and that’s going to be a difficult choice for the committee.” Based on some defense from the Miami OH athletic director later in the week, it sounded like Pearl also made the degrading comment that the Redhawks would have finished last if they were in the Big East.
Pearl then doubled-down on Monday when trying to make a statement that 15-14 Auburn belongs in the field and that they are in the last four in territory if they simply beat LSU on Tuesday, March 3 and then win their first round game of the SEC tournament. Of course, he specifically left out the need to beat rival Alabama on Saturday.
“They’ve got five Quad 1 wins. They’ve got the best win in college basketball on the road at Florida. As far as that margin, it’s either the best or one of the best. So they got a little bit more work to do,” he said.
Pearl added “there’s no love of my son. I mean, there’s no nepotism involved here.”
So, lets break down a few statements here as well as call out some facts.
No offense to the Gators – who might actually win the National Championship in a few weeks and are clearly the best team in the SEC. But I would argue that Wisconsin’s road victory or Duke’s neutral court victory over Michigan, or the Texas Tech neutral court victory over Duke or the Red Raiders road victory at Arizona would count as a better win. Might even go with the Tar Heels home victory over the Blue Devils if you add the tension of the rivalry between the two schools.
And lets not take away games from those top teams simply because they are always winning. Michigan has gone on the road to Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois and left those incredibly difficult places to play with double digit victories. And if we are saying Auburn is a tournament team, then the Wolverine’s 30 point neutral court victory over the Tigers must look incredible.
Auburn’s victory over the Gators is certainly a great victory – but there are 5 other teams who have beaten Florida, while there are only 2 teams who beat the other top 3 teams – I can’t call one of those 6 games the best of the season.
Also, while I don’t want to go back and look, I am pretty sure based on my previous bracketologies, there has been no team in history that has lost 16 games and received an at-large bid to the tournament. If the Tigers lose to Alabama this weekend and then lose in the SEC tournament to need an at-large bid, they will have 16 losses. History does not suggest they will make it.
Considering that Pearl used to coach at Auburn, and that his son still coaches at Auburn, if there is “no nepotism” or love for his son in his statements, then he is not qualified to be talking about college basketball if he is going to say that a team with more losses than any other tournament team in history belongs in over a 32-1 team – even if that team is from the MAC. Bruce Pearl won a lot of basketball games as a coach, and so he knows basketball – and so it is horribly disappointing to hear him make such biased and careless statements.
It really, really bothers me that Pearl suggested that the Red Hawks would finish last in the Big East. Lets just assume that the NET rankings are truly predictive. Miami is 53rd, which is one spot behind Seton Hall at 52nd. The Pirates are 10-9 and 4th in the Big East. Creighton, Providence, Butler, Georgetown, Xavier, Marquette and DePaul all have NET rankings in the 80s and 90s – implying that there are 7 teams that the Redhawks would be favored to beat (especially at home) if they were in the Big East. They probably wouldn’t still be undefeated. Even the conference leaders, Connecticut and St. John’s, have lost twice in the conference. But it is truly unfair to say that Miami would finish in last place in the Big East. In fact, if they played the way they currently are, they likely would be ranked and we wouldn’t be having a debate about if they belong in the tournament.
You will hear stupid statements like the following. Miami OH only beat a team like Mercyhurst by 5 points – a poor Big 10 team like Northwestern beat Mercyhurst by 23. Those types of arguments will leave out the fact that the Redhawks also beat Central Michigan by 39 points – a team that lost by only 14 point on the road at Marquette. The transitive theory might seem fun to rank teams, but they break down when you realize that there are thousands of games in the season and everyone has an off-night. The transitive theory tells us that since the Wisconsin Badgers went on the road and beat #2 Michigan by 3 points, then clearly Villanova and TCU (teams that beat Wisconsin by double digits) would have destroyed the Wolverines if they were given a chance.
At some point, we have to do a comparison point when we look at teams that played in different conferences and might only have 1-2 teams that both have played. So, I understand wanting the transitive theory to count. But at some point, winning games has to matter – and while I understand it is against weaker competition, no team in college basketball this season other than the Redhawks will have 30 regular season wins.
I would rather see a regular season champion like Miami OH get a second chance over a middle of the road power conference team. Ohio State and Indiana both have played 12 games against Quad 1 teams and have only managed to win 2 of them. So, simply because Ohio State or Indiana beat #15th ranked Purdue but in 10 other games against likely tournament teams, they lost, I should assume that those teams have a better chance to win a tournament game than a mid-major team that went 30-0. Based on the regular season, the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers have a 16% chance of winning against a NCAA tournament team. Miami OH is a true unknown based on the regular season, but based on the fact that they went 30-0, I have to believe that they still have a better chance to win a tournament game than 16%. So, if I think Ohio State or Indiana is a tournament team that will be on the correct side of the bubble, I feel like I can find a place for the Redhawks.
I do admit that I noticed something that worried me about Miami’s at large hopes. They have no games against Quad 1 teams, and their only Quad 2 game is their 3 point home victory against Akron. The selection committee has not been kind to mid-major teams with a NET ranking in the 40s or 50s that have no Quad 1 wins. No one is making an argument that 25-6 Belmont (who is currently 54th in the NET) should be in with 0 Quad 1 wins so what is different about Miami (who is 53rd in the NET).
But at the end of the day, there is still a difference. Belmont lost 6 games. If Miami wins tonight and loses in the MAC tournament, they will have lost only once.
It makes me sad because I don’t normally agree with a lot that Stephen A Smith says (although to be fair, I think sometimes that is because he is so demonstrative and feels like he tries to be controversial to get ratings). So, I am not sure that I don’t agree with him, or if he is simply taking the contrarian side to get clicks. So it makes it even crazier that in this case, he might be the side of reason. He said this. “There is no reason on God’s green Earth that a team goes 30-0 in the regular season, only the 4th team in the last 35 years to do so, can’t make a field of 1 of 68 – that’s insane.” He then said basically if you go 30-0 and can’t make the NCAA Tournament, then the regular season means nothing – you just can’t do that.
Every team has a bad night. And the Miami Redhawks have managed to find a way to still win when they have a bad night. And the closer and closer they have gotten to an undefeated regular season, the more the pressure in the room rises. And somehow, they continue to find ways to win.
Do I have to re-think my stance if the Redhawks lose tonight (right now, they have a 6 point half-time lead)? Maybe. While I would have them in, I am not sure the committee would be as agreeable to let the Redhawks in with 2 losses. But if they hold on to get to 31-0, and then somehow get upset in the MAC championship, it would be ridiculous that the committee leave them out.