I will eventually get the full cleaned up version of the Handicapping page up and running. Once we get to the 16 games on Thursday followed by 16 games on Friday, that is a little bit too much to put into the main blog – even for the stats geek like myself.
But I also don’t know that I will get home from work in time to get the handicapping page fully ready before tomorrow’s games tip off. So, since there is only two games, I will handicap them here.
For those unfamiliar with the Lunatic’s attempt to gamble imaginary money at his imaginary casino, here is how it works. The Lunatic rates his bets into three tiers – a $10 bet means he has no clue who is going to win the game but it is no fun to have an article about predicting all the games and not actually predict a winner. A $20 bet means he feels pretty confident about the outcome – he wouldn’t call it a sure thing, but he feels good about the pick. A $30 bet means that he is calling his shot that this is a lock, and something has to go massively wrong for it to not come through.
Historically, I get most of my locks wrong, and I get most of my guesses right. Then, I eventually get tired of losing on my tiers and bet the same amount each time in a sad attempt to get even.
I also leave this disclaimer on the main site. This is for entertainment purposes only. I am a sleep deprived Crazed Lunatic – betting real money on my picks is a truly crazy action. And you never know how his friend Karma will act. Normally Karma makes all my Locks lose – I got too cocky and it needs to knock me down. But don’t anger Karma – it knows that if you bet against the Lunatic knowing he will do badly, that is when his imaginary picks will get hot and do well….
I also mention this important fact (in case you were not convinced by the entertainment purposes only clause). The Lunatic has won small amounts of imaginary money the last few years in this crazy effort to pick all the games. However, the Lunatic has never gone into a true Las Vegas Sportsbook and left with more money than he came with. So, I do not bet real money any more – Vegas has won enough from me.
Enough with the disclaimers – lets get to the games.
6:40 pm on truTV – #16 Howard vs #16 UMBC (-1.5) – Over/Under: 140.5
I do feel bad in one respect for Howard and UMBC. Because they both did something that many teams were unable to do. Not only did they win their conference’s regular season title, but they also backed it up by winning their conference tournament. And their reward is to play in the first game of the tournament.
I don’t know a lot about these teams, but I did see a little of the America East championship where UMBC beat Vermont, and they looked pretty decent. Also, the statistics say UMBC is slightly better (which makes sense why Vegas has them as a 1.5 point favorite). It is hard to only win a game by a point (it happens, but normally a free throw happens to pad a lead). So, while it is a guess, I would go with UMBC for $10 to cover. As for the spread, the teams average closer to 144 pts per game, so I think we are getting good odds with the over – I will take the over for $20.
Lunatic’s picks – UMBC ($10), Over ($20)
9:15 pm on truTV – NC State (-1.5) vs Texas – O/U: 158.5.
This is one of those rare games where you have a reasonable data point from the regular season. These two teams met in Maui in November and played a fast-paced game where the Longhorns won 102-97. Both teams come into the tournament struggling as they both have lost 5 of their last 6 games. But the one thing that doesn’t seem to change for either team is that they score a lot of points.
I think you have to lock the over. When these teams met in the season, they scored 199 points. Even if they don’t light it up in Dayton as they did in Maui, you have to figure they are getting to 158.5. Give me the over for $30. As for the game, I feel like I am getting a gift – Texas won the regular season by 5 and I am going to get another 1.5 points. I am going to put $20 on Texas getting 1.5 points – I feel like they should repeat what they did in Maui, but realizing that we are talking about two teams that struggled coming into the tournament, I am not going to lock the outcome like I will the points.
Lunatic’s picks – Texas ($20), Over ($30)
So, there is your Tuesday preview. We should have two really fun and really competitive games tomorrow. The tournament will begin in just about 18 hours. So very exciting!!!!