With the Tuesday games, I have to start handicapping the teams before I am really ready.  But since when have we really gone to the Handicapping page expecting wise and sage opinions from the Lunatic.   Sleep deprived quick decisions and insane commentary made off of gut instincts is what everyone should be looking for – and those expectations are something the Lunatic can easily meet.

The first four games are picked for right now.  Who knows – maybe I will change my mind by the time the games start tomorrow.    You can go there to see my insane guesses, to see what the Vegas oddsmakers think about the game (probably more insightful), or simply to see when your favorite team is playing – since it also has the times of the games.

That being said, I know that I can’t let go of the fact that I think the bracket has been seeded poorly.   At some point, I will probably rant more about this – still not sure how Texas A&M is a 3 seed, Kentucky – the team that was co-champs with the Aggies and then beat the Aggies in the conference championship – is a 4 seed, and my Boilermakers – who are ranked 10th in the final Coaches Poll and 12 in the AP Poll – are a 5 seed.   But since we are talking about Handicapping, I thought this was interesting.

• None of the 8 seeds are currently favored to win over the 9 seed
• VCU – a 10 seed – is a 4.5 point favorite over the 7 seed Oregon St
• Gonzaga – an 11 seed – is a 1.5 point favorite over the 6 seed Seton Hall
• The 3 Big 10 teams that drew 5 seeds are larger favorites in their games than 2 of the 4 #4 seeds (so Vegas thinks that half the games the Committee thinks are the better 4 seeds against worst 13 seeds will be closer than the 5-12 games)
• #3 seed West Virginia also has a lower line (which is probably more a statement that 29-5 Stephen F Austin shouldn’t be a 14 seed).   But #3 Utah’s line against Fresno St is also only 9 (which puts it lower than Maryland and Indiana and even with Purdue’s line).  So Vegas thinks even half of the 3-14 games will be closer than three of the 5-12s.

I will end my evening with this.   While I don’t really like Coach John Calipari from Kentucky, he said some things that I thought really were spot on accurate in a fun rant about how they could be seeded behind the team they just beat for the SEC Championship

• He mentioned that you still have to play the games – you can’t count on someone else later in the bracket will be there.  You play who you play and you need to win those games.
• He questioned what was the point of playing the Sunday games.  The way the bracket was released, it appears that the seeding was decided before the SEC and Big 10 Championships.   He believes playing the championships on Sunday hurts the SEC teams because it puts it to close to the deadline of the bracket.  From looking at what happened to Kentucky and Michigan State, I think he was right.
• He had another interesting statement which I think is true.   He mentioned that the poor seeding doesn’t hurt the team that was misplaced.  If they are really a better team then where they are seeded, they are going to win the game.  It actually hurts the team that they play.  And the Vegas odds show that.  The 12 seeds are supposed to be the best of the small conference champions.  So the Vegas lines are suggesting that either the committee got all the 12 and 13 seeds wrong, or more likely, the 12 seeds should never have expected to see Purdue or Indiana in their path.

Those small conference champs might pull those upsets.   Chattanooga went 29-5 and Little Rock went 29-4 for a good reason.   As Calapari said, you have to play the games.   And that probably is the best part of the tournament.  Once Thursday comes, everyone stops worrying about the decisions of the committee and everything gets decided on the court.   You have to win 6 games (or 7 for the 4 play-ins) to win the championship against what should be close to the best 68 teams in the country, whether you are seeded right or not.