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  • Not a stationary process

    March 29, 2011

    A fascinating tournament. OK, my picks are totally blown. But beyond that. I have built a Bradley-Terry class model that gives the probability of each team beating every other that fits the regular season as well as possible. Given this belief structure (a set of 604 parameters) I can simulate hundreds of thousands of tournaments. This tournament (or one even more extreme) has like a 1 in 500 probability. (There are different ways to measure weirdness, but they are all similar). I’ve been doing this modeling for like 10 years now. So, a multiple comparison correction gets me to like 1 in 50 decadal probability. Makes me think teams either do, or are starting to, play differently in the tournament than in the regular season. You basketball hotshots out there–do underdogs play a higher variance game–like more 3-point attempts or such in this single elimination structure? Shees, am I going to actually have to learn something about basketball to build a sensible model? Fe

  • Just hafta steal this….

    March 28, 2011

    Loved Piet’s comment on FB VCU Rams won the game doo dah, doo dah. Jayhawk fans go home in shame, Oh the doo dah day.

  • VCU in the finals….

    March 28, 2011

    Sorry UConn. But when the VCU Rams beat the Butler Bulldogs to make it to the finals, the need to face (and beat) Kentucky. The Southeast Conference (SEC) is the only Major conference they have yet to face in the tournament. With wins over USC (Pac10), Georgetown (Big East), Purdue (Big 10), Florida State (ACC), and Kansas (Big 12), the SEC is the only conference of the major 6 conferences that VCU has yet to face. Guess the big question—-Can VCU beat another mid-Major? Hell yeah!!!!

  • ESPN folks are crazy

    March 27, 2011

    Reading a couple of comments from the ESPN Blog – after a writer asked if the VCU run actually warranted expansion.

    Eamonn Brennan – Oh my god, no. Please never say that again. Take a look at the NIT bracket and tell me you want to see any of those teams in this tournament. No thanks.

    Jay Bilas – Final Four or out in 1st Round, Selection argument against VCU and UAB still the same. Neither w/ better credentials than CU, VT, UA, SM

    Eamonn Brennan – I mean, stubborn though it is, I agree with Bilas. Saying VCU has proven the selection argument wrong is like saying Ohio State shouldn’t have been a No. 1 seed because they lost. That’s not how it works

    While I appreciate sticking to your statements, since Bilas criticized the committee for including VCU and UAB, I don’t think you can have it both ways. First of all, Alabama and Colorado are still playing – reaching the semi-finals of the NIT. So, yes, I would have been interested to see how they could have done against the NCAA teams. But at the end of day, the Selection Committee’s job is to identify the teams that are best capable of winning the National Championship. The fact that you think Alabama, Colorado, Virginia Tech and St. Mary’s belonged in the tournament before VCU and UAB means that you think at this point that the tournament should be expanded further because you believe those teams also could win the tournament and they got left out. But to continue to make the argument that a school at VCU who has made the Final Four shouldn’t have made the tournament is insane. At a certain point, you should either let the topic drop or admit you were wrong about the Rams. But to stubbornly continue to say that they shouldn’t have even been in the tournament is silly.

  • Probably not a lot more movement in the standings

    March 27, 2011

    Needed to do some quick checks. Right now, the only movement can happen on the Kentucky / Connecticut side. No one was brave enough to pick either Butler or VCU to get to the championship game. So, that means that those who have the original favorites like Ohio State or Kansas will be rooting for the small schools to stop any potential large amount of scoring.

    But, there were 32 people (22 for Connecticut, 10 for Kentucky) who still have a chance to get points in the semi-finals, and 17 of them (11 for Connecticut, 6 for Kentucky) have a chance with them as their champions!

    Also, a special call out to Cooper Ams and Deborah Waite who were the only two people to get Butler correct in the SE region. Of course, even with the local fans, no one was brave enough to take VCU to win the SW region. Although we have a few more brave fans in the Second Chance Pool….

    So, looks like the pool will come down to the 32 people who have either Connecticut or Kentucky to continue farther in the tournament (and those in the top 10 hoping they have enough points to hold the others off).

  • As for the leaders in the pool!!!!

    March 27, 2011

    We have co-leaders in the Standard Pool, and neither of them are named Brent Peterson (he has slipped to 12th place – a constant reminder to me of how it is perfectly possible to be tremendously good at picking the games, but if you end up having a bad round in the Elite 8, Final 4, and Championship, it can quickly slip away).

    Those leaders are Patrick Booth and Rebecca Shipp – who both correctly got Kentucky and Connecticut of the Final 4 to take the lead. The are followed closely by Cooper Ams (40 behind), kyn8iv (40 behind – apparently as much as I try to get names, I still end up not knowing at least one of the leaders), Harold Ingram (50), Rob Bradley (50), Bill Gemmill (70) and Elizabeth Kinzie (70).

    In the upset pool, Logan Horgan has taken the lead with 273 points thank to picking Kentucky. Our potential 2 year old champion is followed by Deborah Waite (10 pts), Rob Bradley (14), Cooper Ams (24) and Brent Peterson (31).

    And in the Second Chance Pool, we have a 6 way tie for the lead at the top. Bill Gemmill, Cooper Ams, Elizabeth Kinzie, Jan Palmore, Joshua Lacks and Michelle Ams all are tied at 400 pts.

    Good luck to the few of you who still have the chance to make ground in the pool (or for those of you hoping that the upsets will continue so you can stay on the leaderboard.

  • Well – it only makes sense

    March 27, 2011

    In a year of upsets, there was only one appropriate way for the Kentucky-North Carolina game. And since the Lunatic was rooting for the Tar Heels, we all know what that means. The Kentucky Wildcats become the final team to punch their ticket to Houston and the Final Four!

    Thanks to the Wildcats victory, we have the first tournament where not only do we have no #1 seeds, we also don’t have any 2 seeds either. In 1980, Louisville was a 2 seed – and in 2006, UCLA was a 2 seed.

    In 2011, we have Connecticut – a 3 seed, Kentucky – a 4 seed, Butler – a 8 seed, and VCU – a 11 seed. And of course, because it will make sense, the 3 and 4 seeds will play each other, and the 8 and 11 seeds will play each other.

    • So, this means that we have a record of a 3 seed being the favorite (based on seeds) going into the Final 4.
    • We have a record number when you add up the seeds (26).
    • I haven’t looked, but I imagine the 37 losses between the 4 teams is a record (Kentucky has the least with 8 losses).
    • VCU ties the record of the highest seed to make the Final 4 (with George Mason -2006 and LSU – 1986).
    • And the winner of the Butler – VCU game will go into the record books as the highest seed to make the championship game (Butler would tie the 1985 Villanova team which was an 8 seed – obviously VCU would be the first 11 seed to make it.

    Hopefully that will lead to an unpredictable Final Four – how crazy would it be if Butler or VCU was the 2011 champions! One can only hope!!!!

  • I was wrong!

    March 27, 2011

    Butler is not your team. That is because destiny has been fulfilled!!!!!! And the city of Richmond will be a crazy hoops city for one more week. That is because the 11 seeded – had to play their way into the field in the First Four – VCU Rams jumped out to an 18 point first half lead, and then withstood a few runs in the second half from the Kansas Jayhawks to punch their ticket to Houston and the Final Four.

    This will guarantee a mid-major Cinderella team will make the championship game, as VCU will next face last year’s darling – the Butler Bulldogs. And with most of being from Richmond, it is only obvious that our team is the VCU RAMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Hats off to the Rams for pulling off the most improbable run from the First Four to the Final Four. The CBS broadcast proudly put on the screen that this was the school’s first Final 4 appearance ever – which Elizabeth and me have thought humorous since they had also proudly put that fact that it was their first Sweet 16 appearance in school history, and first Elite 8 appearance in school history. However, here is the real fact that is interesting. VCU will forever go down in history as the first school to ever win 5 games in the tournament to get to the Final 4.

    Hats off to the Selection Committee as well for taking a chance on the Rams – it was highly criticized when it first happened, and yet here are the Rams still playing. Just think, 3 of the First 4 teams would not have been in the tournament had it not been for the expansion that everyone in the media has criticized to anyone willing to listen – whether it be how weak the bubble was or how there was no reason to change such a great tournament.

    Congratulations to the VCU Rams – you are our team!!!!!!!! And you have made yourselves, the university, and the city of Richmond extremely proud of you!!!! Here’s hoping that there are two more victories in your future!

  • VCU win

    March 27, 2011

    So epic…the Belvedere exit is closed by State Police. I guess I should have taken VCU to the Final Four instead of Purdue. But between those two for Undergraduate and Graduate schools…who would have thunk.

  • This is still your team!

    March 26, 2011

    ‘Let’s win this game for all the small schools that never had a chance to get here.’ – Merle Webb from Hoosiers.

    And for the second year in a row, the Butler Bulldogs delivered – and have now made consecutive Final Fours. All the small schools that never had a chance to get there will show their players that it is possible if you just believe and play solid basketball.

    So, let the Hoosiers mysteria begin again.  Butler is here to stay – and they have shown that they were not just Gordon Haywood last year. They had a lot more talent on that team – and that talent is drilling clutch three-pointers when the game is on the line, getting to the free throw line when necessary, and grabbing offensive or defensive rebounds, or playing stifling defense when it is most critical.

    Congratulations also go out to the Connecticut Huskies who have continued their unbelievably hot March. The Huskies have now won 9 games in the last 19 days on their march toHouston. I keep hearing things like – they have to be getting tired with all the basketball they have been playing – they can’t keep this going. Well, the Huskies have kept going and now are just two victories away from one of the most unbelievable runs that I can remember. And the Big East breathes a sigh of relief that after getting a record 11 teams in the tournament, the Huskies helped ensure that they at least got one team into the Final Four.

    So, congratulations to both ButlerandConnecticut. They have punched their tickets to Houston. One can only hope that Sunday’s games will be anywhere close to as good as tonight’s overtime battle between the Bulldogs and Gators, and the two point contest between the Huskies and Wildcats.

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The Crazed Lunatic is a crazy college basketball fan, especially for his Purdue Boilermakers!!!! Boiler Up!!!!

Every March, his passion comes out to rant and rave about one of the best sporting events in the world, the NCAA Basketball Tournament. While many of you will Stomp the Lunatic with your picks in our fun bracket picking game, this will not diminish the Lunatic’s crazed attempt at blogging about the tournament that he loves. Whether it will be trying to predict who will be in the tournament during Championship Week or his insane attempt to handicap all 67 games against the Vegas spreads, you can count on the Lunatic’s sleep-deprived rantings throughout the month of March.

If you notice any problems with the website or have any questions about the Stomp the Lunatic contest, please reach out by email at thomas@tehodgson.com

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