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  • Handicapping the Tournament again

    March 19, 2013

    Also started up the handicapping page.  This is where I make an embarrassing attempt to try to predict the games against the Vegas lines – simply because I likely have no chance of beating any of you – so I obviously will be able to pick the games against expert handicappers who make a living because they produce good amounts of money for the casinos.

    But figure I might not get home from work before the 6:40 pm tip-off and so had to get the first picks out tonight.  Since I did it after midnight, I am sure it will have about the same amount of success as my ability so far to get the data to everyone.

     

  • Schedule Update and Cheat Sheets Available

    March 19, 2013

    Important Notes on the large Schedule dataset

    • The final three missing Sunday games have been added to the Schedule
    • On the standings page, there was an error – the offense and defense numbers are based off conference games instead of all games.  This then effected the Adjusted Scoring Margin numbers.   This error has also been fixed.

    Important Note for those of you who want to leverage data but don’t have time to build a model or sift through 5,000+ NCAA Box Score Summaries…..

    • I have loaded cheat sheets to help with your analysis.  It has summaries of the each team – listed side by side for their opponent in the first round.  So, you can see things like their avg. offense, avg. defense – or more granular info like what Top 50 teams have they beaten or Bottom 100+ teams have beaten them.

     

    My sincerest apologies about the error on the Standings page.  Was rushing just to get something out – should know better than doing things after midnight…..   Hope it did not mess anyone up.

  • Just a reminder to register first!!!!!

    March 18, 2013

    Please remember that even if you have done this in previous years, I need you to register again.  The way I set up my database is by year.  So, if you have not done so already, register first – that will take you straight to the main page to enter your brackets.

    Good luck everyone!!!

  • 2013 Season Games are Loaded on the Site

    March 18, 2013

    Only missing three games – the ACC Championship Game, Atlantic 10 Championship Game, and Big 10 Championship Game.   Don’t have a good explanation why the SEC game was available and the other three were not from today – but it is the best I can do at the moment.

    Obviously, take the data with a grain of salt.  I have done some basic cleaning and quality checks against RPI data – but to be fair, it is also 1 am – and so my chances for errors have probably increased.  🙂

    Joking aside, I am pretty sure that all the basic information that you might need should be here.  And for those of you who are not familiar with this tradition, I will give you some more details.

    As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

    So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I just randomly pick late Wednesday evening.

    However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort. So, just click on 2013 Schedule in the Admin menu and get an Excel spreadsheet with summary box score and standing / RPI information for each game for every Division I team.

    One potential error – I did not have the RPI data available to help me error check the final week of games.  So, I made some educated guesses on venues – for example, considering Vanderbilt, St. John’s and Tulsa as hosts of their conference tournaments since the games were played in the same city as their schools.  Not sure this is how the NCAA considers it, but I figured it was probably an accurate reflection.

    If you notice something terribly wrong, let me know – no promises I have time to fix it, but at least everyone will know.

    Enjoy the data!!!!

     

  • The brackets are up – let the games begin

    March 18, 2013

    The Selection Committee has done their job – now it is time for you to do yours!!!!!   STOMP THE LUNATIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The brackets are ready to be entered – if you have already registered, just go to the login page.  Otherwise, please register first!!!!

    Good luck to everyone in Stomping the Lunatic!

  • Update on stats

    March 17, 2013

    Well – I have now validated that I have all the games through March 10th correct.  I also know I have the games between March 11th – 14th are correct as far as scores – not 100% sure about venue – my interpretation from other neutral court games is that Vanderbilt playing the SEC tournament in Nashville, TN actually counts as a home game for them because it is the city of their school.  But don’t have any final rankings to compare against.

    So, I know the games missing from Friday and Saturday.  Now, it is just a time issue.  I should hopefully be able to get the full set of stats up some time late tonight.  I am really sorry if that messes anyone up.

     

     

  • For those waiting for stats….

    March 17, 2013

    I must apologize, but I made a tactical mistake.   I noticed on the NCAA Official Site that they have much more available information on the games and thought it would be good to leverage the official source.  Figured this would save me lots of time figuring out the neutral games since their schedule would officially say what were neutral games (instead of the obnoxious process I have had to do in previous years of getting all the stats and then manually identifying all the games).

    Well, I went in this morning to update all the schedules, read in all the games, and started to do a quick sanity check on standings.  Much to my chagrin, the site is fully updated through Thursday – with some Friday games.  And of course, my standings are updated through Saturday.  🙂  Who would have guessed that the official NCAA site would not have their stats available for games that happened over 24 hours ago.  So now I don’t know if I am missing anything.  While I always say take the stats with a grain of salt, it also feels horrible to put the data out there without knowing that I have all the games.

    I am looking for some other ways to sanity check (without having to look through the schedules of 347 teams – which is over 5,700 games).  I will try to get this out by the time the weekend ends – sadly, this might impact my ability to put out a bracketology page (or maybe I will wildly try to take a stab at a bracket in one hour late Sunday afternoon).

    At least this gives me an excuse to stay awake and watch / listen to the Pac 12 championship game between UCLA and Oregon.  See what the Bruins do without Jordan Adams….

  • It is not a weak bubble

    March 16, 2013

    A few days ago, I was reading the ESPN bubble watch – when the writer basically went on his yearly complaints about how the bubble is so weak.  Well, lets see how weak the bubble is – according to their own expert.  Here are the teams that will likely be left out.

    • Virginia (21-10, RPI=64) – has beaten Wisconsin, UNC, NC State and Duke this year – but style of play has also allowed them to lose games to team they shouldn’t.  Still – 4th in the ACC can’t be that bad.
    • Kentucky (21-10, RPI=48) – beat Florida and Missouri – but has lost to some teams they shouldn’t have without Noel.  Still finished in 2nd in the SEC at 12-6.
    • Alabama (19-11, RPI=61) – beat Villanova and Kentucky (when Noel was still playing).  Finished tied for 2nd in SEC at 12-6.
    • Maryland (21-11, RPI=77) – beat Duke twice as well as NC State.  Finish in ACC standings holding them back – but shown they are capable of winning against a tourney type team.
    • Tennessee (20-11, RPI=53) – beat Wichita St, Kentucky, Florida and Missouri.  Came on strong at end of season but had disappointing loss to Alabama in tournament.
    • Southern Miss (25-8, RPI=35) – no top 50 wins but kept it close against Arizona and Wichita St. – finished 2nd in Conf USA – and is playing tomorrow in the championship game against top seed Memphis.
    • Massachusetts (20-10, RPI=57) – beat LaSalle and Temple.   Winning record in tough Atlantic 10.
    • Iowa (21-11, RPI=72) – beat Iowa St, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois.  Had better record in Big 10 than Illinois and Minnesota – two teams believed to be in.  Strength of schedule holding Hawkeyes back.

    And this leaves out some of the top teams from smaller conferences – such as Akron – who are looking to still win their way into the Dance.  All these teams have flaws and lost games they shouldn’t.  But I wouldn’t say teams that are beating the likes of Duke, Florida and Wisconsin as weak.  Inconsistent – but then again, isn’t that the reason they are a bubble team…..

    Hope tomorrow’s games are good – lot of championship games and bids to be won……

     

     

  • The Site is Live – Welcome to the 2013 Lunatic Contest

    March 15, 2013

    I will be sending out an email tonight to everyone who participated last year!!!!   As always, please feel free to invite your friends and family – everyone is welcome.

    At this point, you can register for the contest – although for obvious reasons, you won’t be able to enter your brackets…..  🙂

    Good luck to everyone in Stomping the Lunatic!!!!!

  • Just a heads up

    March 11, 2013

    In case you have come here from a bookmark, I am still working on getting the final site tested.  So, if you try to register or login, you might get some really weird results (including the fact that the 2013 tournament has already happened and there is only 4 entries – myself, Charlie and Katie….  🙂

    I am trying to clean up a few things before the tournament starts – once the site is really ready, I will send out the emails to everyone!!!!

    In the meantime, I will congratulate Creighton for winning the Missouri Valley bid as well as Lehigh – who at 15-20 – knocked off top-seeded Charleston Southern to take the Big South bid.  Also, my sympathy to Middle Tennessee State.  Went 19-1 in the Sun Belt conference to get a 28-4 overall record and an RPI = 24.  Then, they lost in the quarterfinals tonight of the conference tournament to Florida International.  Now the Blue Raiders will have to wait a week to see if winning almost all their games against relatively weak competition (best wins are Ole Miss and UCF) will be enough.    Wouldn’t be March without these kinds of upset – will this be a sign of things to come….

    Should also mention that ESPN and Lunardi have brought Virginia back into the field after their overtime win against Maryland and kicked Tennessee back out.  Guess beating Missouri doesn’t look as great the next day.  🙂   Then again, after having 24 hours to think about La Salle’s blowout loss to Saint Louis, he decided to bump them back up over Kentucky and Boise State – who were only coming off victories on Saturday against teams of similar caliber (or better in the case of Florida) to St Louis.

    I guess I can’t talk – I never correctly pick the teams who will make the field (of course, I also don’t get to interview the committee members throughout the weekend either…)

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The Crazed Lunatic is a crazy college basketball fan, especially for his Purdue Boilermakers!!!! Boiler Up!!!!

Every March, his passion comes out to rant and rave about one of the best sporting events in the world, the NCAA Basketball Tournament. While many of you will Stomp the Lunatic with your picks in our fun bracket picking game, this will not diminish the Lunatic’s crazed attempt at blogging about the tournament that he loves. Whether it will be trying to predict who will be in the tournament during Championship Week or his insane attempt to handicap all 67 games against the Vegas spreads, you can count on the Lunatic’s sleep-deprived rantings throughout the month of March.

If you notice any problems with the website or have any questions about the Stomp the Lunatic contest, please reach out by email at thomas@tehodgson.com

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