Stomp The Lunatic

I normally have a lot of respect for the referees, but these refs deserve the criticism.

They are letting the centers elbow each other without calling it.  Then, they let one of the LSU players come over the back of the Iowa player for the rebound, pushing the Iowa player and the ball out of bounds – giving LSU the ball.

Then, they finally call a foul on LSU shooting a layup and call a deadball technical foul on Iowa’s Caitlin Clark for throwing the ball behind her back out of play.  It was foolish on Clark, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she thought she was sending the ball to a ref (there should have been one where the ball was heading).  Now, Clark has 4 fouls for something that was ridiculous.  In the classic “ball don’t lie” moment, the LSU player missed both technical FTs.

But the game is completely out of control at this point.  There is a point of letting the players play, and there is a point where you have to call a clean game.  The refs have been so inconsistent in calling touch fouls and then calling nothing.  It has been kind of awful.

Well – since our expert opinions could not predict close to anything in the Final 4.  The Lunatic decided that since his opinions seemed to be a jinx, the only possible solution is to go to the one thing that always knows – the ball.

So, I invited my son, Charlie to help me with some games of HORSE.  He would pick team he wants to represent, and the winner would obviously take the tournament.

In the women’s game, Charlie picked Iowa.  The Lunatic desperately using mid-ranged shots somehow pulled out a victory of HORSE – HOR.

In the men’s game, we decided since I was hot, it made sense for Charlie to take San Diego State (not to mention, I think Charlie really wanted to be San Diego State).  In a much closer battle, both of us ended to S, but somehow, the Lunatic hit a deep three and stole a second game.

Charlie then said – I want a second chance.  So, I said, “That’s fair – lets keep going”.  And so, this time, in another tight battle, we both got to S – but Charlie went to the classic behind the backboard shot, and won the third game – so Iowa and LSU were even.

Charlie said, lets finish off the women’s game – and so we started.  But in a messy game as both of our shots started to deteriorate, the Lunatic somehow ended up ahead and won HORSE – HOR.

Charlie said – No – that’s not possible, Iowa can’t lose.  Meanwhile, the Lunatic having a hard time breathing was pondering if he could really manage to play two more games.  So, I said, lets a make deal – we will say the last game for the men – which means UConn wins 2-0.  And then we can play one last game to decide the women.

This felt like win-win for the Lunatic – since it meant likely not passing out from what shouldn’t have that much exercise, but apparently was stretching my limits.  As we got ready to start, an ice cream truck randomly showed up in the court.  We both thought it was rather odd that an ice cream truck would be coming around when it was 60 degrees and right after massive storms from the night before.  But I told him he could have some.  Charlie – sensing blood in the water – suggested to make the game more interesting.  He didn’t want ice cream from the truck – he wanted real ice cream.  Ice cream that his dad would have to go get, and because of his current diet, he couldn’t have.

So, we were on – one game to decide if Iowa or LSU would win, and one game to decide if Charlie and Katie would get ice cream tonight.  The Lunatic started off strong, building a S-H lead.  But then, his age caught up to him.  And out of desperateness for ice cream, Charlie hit 4 in a row.  Somehow, the Lunatic managed to hit two of the shots, but his lead was down to S-R.  Charlie then went for a behind a backboard shot and missed.  And out of true desperation, the Lunatic went for a deep three and I missed it totally – not even coming close to the rim.  We then both preceeded to miss several shots.  Finally, mercifully, the Lunatic his a shot around the free throw line, and the pressure was too much for Charlie.  LSU wins HORSE – HOR.

So the ball predicts LSU and Connecticut as the National Champions.  But Charlie is still trying convince me that ice cream certainly sounds like a good way to end the day.  We will have to see if the ball don’t lie.

 

There was no stopping the Connecticut Huskies, as they are making their 5th National Championship appearance since 1999.

I don’t remember the exact number, but the broadcast mentioned that Miami had missed something like 15 layups.  Every drive to the basket was contested.  The Hurricanes managed to cut the lead from 20 down to 8, but it never got closer, as the Huskies cruised to a 72-59 victory.

Adama Sanogo finished with 21 points, as the Hurricanes had no answer for the big man.  Jordan Hawkins added 13 points, but the real story was the Huskies defense.

Congratulations to the UConn Huskies as they will play for their 5th National Championship – if I heard right from the broadcast, they have not lost a game in the Final 4 in any of their 5 appearances.  And their last 3 titles were all won in the state of Texas.

So, we will have the 4th seeded Connecticut Huskies playing for their 5th title since 1999 against the 5th seeded San Diego State Aztecs, who are playing in their first ever national championship game.

The Connecticut Huskies just dominated the first half, ending with Alex Karaban hitting a three pointer at the buzzer to give the top remaining seed a 37-24 lead.

You knew it would be that kind of night when Huskies’ 6’9″ Forward Adama Sanogo, who only hit 17 three pointers all season, hit two three pointers to start the game.  The Hurricanes didn’t have an answer for him in the lane either, as he rolled for 13 points going 5-6 from the field.

But the big story is that the Huskies defense is stopping the explosive Miami offense, as the Hurricanes are only shooting 25% from the field.  The 24 points is the lowest total number of points the Hurricanes have scored all season.

UConn has beaten everyone in the tournament by over 15 points, and they have a 13 minutes lead at halftime.  It just doesn’t look like anything can stop the Huskies.  But as we saw in the first game, teams can come back from double digits, and the Hurricanes have had their own experience doing that as they needed a second half comeback to beat the Texas Longhorns.

Twenty minutes of basketball left to see who will join San Diego State in the championship game!!!

With about 15 minutes left, there was a foul on Aztec’s Micah Parrish.  Everyone started complaining and as that happened, Parrish elbowed Brandon Weatherspoon in the chest, and the Owls’ guard flopped to the ground to get the refs attention.  And while it was a little weak, it certainly deserved a technical foul.  Alijah Martin would hit the two free throws, and then get fouled shooting a three pointer to drain three more free throws.  Florida Atlantic was up 54-40.

But the technical foul seemed to also fire up the Aztecs.  San Diego State continued to cut the lead.  Every time the Aztecs would miss a shot, they would get the rebound, drive to the basket, and seem to get fouled.  It was crazy – really good shooters kept missing free throws and then the Aztecs would get another rebound and cut the lead 1-2 points at a time.  With four and a half minutes, Aguek Arop got a jumper along the baseline and tied the game at 65.

Giancarlo Rosardo would give the Owls back the lead with a fadeaway from the post at four minutes.  Both teams kept playing tough, physical defense, but the Owls would maintain a three point lead off some free throws from Johnell Davis.

But the Aztecs would not go away.  Jaedon LeDee drove to the hoop and laid it in with a minute to cut the lead to 1.  But Owls’ Alijah Martin made a pretty drive down the baseline for a reverse layup with 50 seconds to take a 71-68 lead.  LeDee rushed the ball down the court again, and with 36 seconds hit a jumper to once again cut the lead to 1.

As timeout was called, everyone wondered if the Aztecs would foul and extend the game.  But instead, not only did the Aztecs decide to play defense, they went big, removing both their leading scores in Matt Bradley and Darrion Trammell.  With the shot clock running down, the Owls’ season leading scorer, Johnell Davis drove the lane but had his layup blocked by Aguek Arop and Nathan Mensah comes down with the ball with under 10 seconds to play.

Mensah outlets the ball to Lamont Butler, he takes it to the corner but gets cut-off from going down the baseline to the basket.  With under 2 seconds, Butler reverses back away from the basket and realizing time is running out, puts up a jumper with 0.5 seconds left.  And it hits nothing but net as the clock strikes 0.  San Diego State had not led since 10:34 in the first half.  But as the clock struck zero, the scoreboard showed Aztecs 72, Owls 71.

The Mountain West champions from San Diego State came from 14 points down to win at the buzzer and earn their trip to the championship game on Monday.

What an exciting game – we can only hope that we see something as exciting between the Miami Hurricanes and Connecticut Huskies!

San Diego State jumped out to a 14-5, and then after that, it has been all Florida Atlantic.   Nicholas Boyd hit 2 of his 3 three-pointers in what ignited a 16-3 run to give the Owls a 4 point lead.

Then after Nathan Mensah gave the Aztecs a 24-23 lead, Jalen Gaffney, Bryan Greenlee and Alijah Martin hit three pointers to help the Owls go on another 9-2 run.

Florida Atlantic has been able to find a way to score on the Aztecs impressive defense.  Just remember here is what teams have done against San Diego State in the tournament.

• Charleston (32.1% FG, 20.8% TPG, 29 first half pts, 57 pts)
• Furman (32.0% FG, 23.1% TPG, 25 first half pts, 52 pts)
• Alabama (32.4% FG, 11.1% TPG, 23 first half pts, 64 pts)
• Creighton (40.0% FG, 11.8% TPG, 33 first half pts, 56 pts)

The Owls have scored 40 points, shooting 53.6% from the field and 42.9% from three point range.  They have had a fantastic mix of scoring inside and shooting from outside, with really great ball movement.  And now the Conference USA champion is 20 minutes away if they can hold on to their 7 point lead of playing for their first ever National Championship.  But this has been a game of runs – don’t count the Mountain West champions out.

I remember a few days ago looking through Facebook and seeing a post that was going viral.  It was from Earvin Magic Johnson’s twitter, and gave Iowa’s Caitlin Clark’s this high level of praise.

“What makes Caitlin’s 40-point triple-double so special is the fact so many players never had one, not me, Michael Jordan, or Larry Bird!”

I don’t know if that is true – I assume that Magic knows what he is talking about.  But as the post went viral, many commentators were saying that Clark was the best player in college basketball, both men’s and women’s.

I thought to myself that this is just trying to promote the women’s game – which I totally support.  I also don’t know that I like putting the best designation onto something so hard to describe.  Zach Edey was awarded the best player in men’s basketball and couldn’t even get his team past the first round.  Centers have skills that guards don’t.  Guards have skills that centers don’t.  What is best – towering dunks, deep ranged three pointers, shut-down defense, or amazing passes.

But then I watched both women’s Final Four games last night, and got to watch Caitlin Clark play.  She hit one three-pointer from the March Madness logo.  She would drive down the lane at will and make these beautiful layups against a South Carolina team that was undefeated because they had the best defense in women’s basketball.  She would make these great passes to her teammates leading to baskets.  She did turn the ball over a few more times than one would like – but it was super entertaining.

If you are not doing anything tomorrow at 3:30 pm, you need to turn on the women’s championship game and watch her play.  What she did on Friday night was incredible, and that wasn’t even the game that got praise from one of the best players to ever play basketball.  It should be a great game, LSU has only lost twice all season so they are obviously incredibly talented as well.

If that is not enough to make you believe it, I will take a moment last night.  Charlie had just come down to make some popcorn and asked how the game was going.  And he looked and watched Clark drive to the basket and get a layup.  I said Iowa is winning, but Clark is incredible.  And without missing a beat, Clark comes down the court and hits a three pointer from almost half court.  And Charlie goes, “Dang – that was from the logo”.  I said, “Yeah – she has been doing that all night”.  Charlie even stayed and watched a little more of the game before wanting to go back to his video games – leaving and saying that she was amazing.

People who love the game or have starred in the game like Magic Johnson are going to recognize something special right away.  But you know that someone is special when you can get someone who doesn’t really care about women’s basketball to stop and watch for a while because they realize they are watching something special.

Once again, I know that this will never happen.  But the Lunatic also wants to add games that help evaluate teams.  Instead of allowing more teams into the tournament, lets add a set of games.  The NCAA tried this once and it failed – but it was bound to fail.  It was the bracket busters – it set up one game between the top non-power conference teams.  The idea was that the win would bump up the winner’s profiles.  But the problem was that winning those games just was not enough of a mover.

One problem that I have is what North Texas went through – they never got to play a power conference team.

So, here is my proposal.  We are going to add two weeks to the schedule, with games that will not count against the overall total that a team can play.

There were 100 teams that made the NCAA and NIT.  These teams will get rewarded with a tournament to start the season.  We can have 6 tournaments of 16 teams and one of 4 teams.  The tournament will redo the Sweet 16 teams, the teams that made the Second Round, etc. with one rule – it needs to guarantee that 4 of the teams in the tournament are from conferences outside of the Big 12, Big 10, SEC, ACC, Pac 12 or Big East.  The top 4 non-power conference teams will host the first two rounds where winners play winners and losers play losers – that means everyone gets at least 2 games against what likely will be talented teams (and the non-power teams finally get to play them at home).  Then, the winners of each group of 4 will play at neutral sites that are famous to try to get some excitement (Madison Square Garden, for example).  At a minimum, non-power teams will get two quality opponents, and could get 4.

Then, we will add one week to the season at the end of December / first week of January.  No one can schedule a game during this week because everyone is going to be told where they are playing.  We will take the current NET ranking and use it to create 8 team tournaments – top 8 play each other, 9-16 play each other, etc.  A couple of forced rules.  Each group of 8 has to have at least 2 non-power conference teams.  We likely can’t find enough neutral sites for these, and we want to be able to have tons of fans – so in this case, we will let whoever is the top team in the grouping host the tournament.  It will work just like the holiday tournaments, which will allow everyone to get 3 games against teams considered around the same skill level.  And if you are a non-power conference team near the top of the rankings, you are likely guaranteed to play one game against a power conference team – which can really improve your profile.

We can always simply increase the numbers into the NCAA tournament – but then we need to figure out how that increase doesn’t just end up having all the non-power conference teams playing in the first round.  If you win your conference tournament, you should automatically make the Round of 64.  And if the numbers of the NCAA tournament increase, it has to come with the rule that you have to have a winning record in your conference.  More access should mean more access to the teams who tend to not have a chance to get in.  It should go to a team like Dayton who comes in 2nd place in the Atlantic 10 and gets ignored because they lose in the conference tournament final, not to a power conference team that went 16-16 for the season.

We know this won’t happen.  But could you imagine how fun this would be.  On New Year’s Eve, you would have a tournament that would basically have the top 8 teams at that moment play each other.  It is probably too hard to organize, which is why it won’t happen.  But I think it would solve a lot of the problems for the Selection Committee.

Well – we are 10 minutes away from San Diego State and Florida Atlantic tipping offf.  I am so excited – it is going to be a fun night of basketball.

This will never happen.  But if I was the czar of college basketball, I would have a rule that you can not play in the NCAA tournament if you don’t have a winning record in your conference.  My fear is that other power conference teams would get invites instead, but it should open the door for a few more non-power conference teams to make the tournament.  Wouldn’t it have been fun to see a team like North Texas (2nd place in Conference USA) or Utah Valley (WAC regular season champion) who ended up winning the NIT and losing in the NIT semi-finals get a chance over a struggling power-conference team.

I think the difficulty becomes that some of these conferences are better so it is too be expected a slightly worse conference record.  So, setting the arbitrary rule would be unpopular.  But lets go past what I would do and list out all the teams that had the worst conference records and see how they did.  I will include the conference tournament games – since they are included in my team standings that I put on the site.

• 9 – West Virginia (Big 12 – 8-12) – Lost to Maryland
• 11 – First Four – Mississippi State (SEC – 9-11) – Lost to Pitt
• 8 – Arkansas (SEC – 9-11) – Beat Illinois and Kansas, Lost to UConn.
• 6 – Iowa State (Big 12 – 10-10) – Lost to Pitt
• 6 – TCU (Big 12 – 10-10) – Beat Arizona State, Lost to Gonzaga
• 9 – Illinois (Big 10 – 11-10) – Lost to Arkansas
• 8 – Iowa (Big 10 – 11-10) – Lost to Auburn
• 9 – Auburn (SEC – 10-9) – Beat Iowa, Lost to Houston

The first thing here that fascinates me is that of these 8 teams, only Mississippi State was in the First Four.  Everyone else was safely in.  And two of them were 6 seeds.  Why would a team like Pitt who went 14-6 in the ACC be in the First Four, and a team like West Virginia who went 8-12 in the Big 12 be the 9 seed?  That makes absolutely no sense to me.  Of course, Pitt ended up proving how wrong that was by beating two of the 8 teams on this list.

To be fair to TCU, they were still ranked in the polls at 22nd.  But note both TCU and Iowa State at 10-10 in the Big 12 were ranked ahead of Texas A&M who was 17-4 in the SEC (one of the two conferences with the most tournament teams).

Only Arkansas, TCU, and Auburn won their first round game, and part of that is because Arkansas and Auburn played other teams on the list.  And TCU’s victory was against one of the First Four teams that was in the play-in game.  Only Arkansas had a victory that was significant – when they knocked off #1 seed Kansas.

If you made a rule that if you have a record that isn’t more than 1 game over 500, you can not get an at-large bid unless the polls have you as a Top 25 team, we would be able to open up 7 spots in the dance – and we would have only missed out on Arkansas’ upset.  I’d have to believe if we gave these opportunities to teams like non-power conference teams like North Texas or power conference teams that did better in the standings like Vanderbilt or Clemson, we would be pleasantly surprised.

It doesn’t change much.  I could argue that teams like Vanderbilt and Clemson couldn’t even get through the NIT – so they certainly weren’t going to win the NCAA Tournament.  I am not sure that NIT performance is the fairest thing – several teams end up having a huge let down and get upset in the NIT because they aren’t ready to play.  I am not trying to say that North Texas, Utah Valley, Clemson or Vanderbilt would have won the NCAA Tournament if given the chance.

But I do think two things.  The seeding matters – if you can’t have a winning record in your conference, you certainly should not be an 8 or 9 seed over a 14-6 power conference team.  And I think having a few more spots for a team like North Texas would benefit the tournament.

I normally try to do this article earlier, but I somehow fell behind with all my blogging.  I am going to blame Purdue’s dismal performance.  But I have 3 1/2 hours until the Final Four begins, and I have already put in my handicapping, so it is time to catch up on my standard yearly entries into the blog.  I will also try to do my blog that grades the conferences.

To be fair, I am going to provide some initial feedback and then spend the rest of these articles breaking my own feedback.  Just calling out my own double standard before I get started.  But these articles have to have some criticism in them, and typically, that criticism happens using after the fact information – which is unfair.

At the end of the day, I can’t really complain about what the committee did.  It has been a fun wide-open tournament, and this is one of the best parts of this whole process – it is really almost impossible to mess up the tournament by the selection committee.  Each conference guarantees one team to represent them, the committee takes most of the teams remaining that are consensus top teams – which you can tell whether you use statistical rankings or the polls.

Lets start this with I think the Selection Committee did a very good, non-controversial job.  I (and many other real bracketologists) almost predicted the bracket, so it is hard to complain at what they did.  From my prediction, they left out Rutgers (who breaks one of my rules that I will state later, so I am good with), they added Nevada (who is a non-power conference team that I support making more spots available too), and I got 66 of the teams within 1 seed of where the committee placed them.  But I need to say this – I don’t create a bracket that is my feeling on the 68 best teams, I create a bracket that I think the Selection Committee will select.  And so, some of my feedback will go there.

As a Purdue fan, I am going to start with this statement.  I hate it when a top team loses how it is said that they should have never been that seed.  The selection committee got the top 4 seeds right – Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue.  Yes – they all lost early.  Purdue lost a game they never should have lost.  But that doesn’t mean that they were not deserving of a 1 seed.  If you look at the polls, the 61 pollsters of the AP poll had Purdue as the #3 team in the country.  If you look at the Coaches Poll, the 32 voters had Purdue as the #3 team in the country.  So, if the Selection Committee had been the 93 pollsters, Purdue would have been a 1 seed.  If you go to the Bracket Matrix, my quick count had 229 bracketologists.  Only 12 of them did not rank the Boilers as a 1 seed.  Purdue clearly had a flaw in how they play.  But to say another team deserved the 1 seed means that you were able to look into the future.  Now, if you want to say that Purdue is the biggest choke artist of college basketball, I won’t be able to argue with you.

Now that I have said that, I am going to probably use tournament results later to state what I would like to change.  I know things won’t change, but as a crazy blogger, I have to rant about something.

My biggest complaint ties to two things.  I feel that conference records have to matter more than they do, and that the committee uses the non-conference strength of schedule to punish teams.

I like the sentiment that all the games matter equally.  I even agree with that statement.  But it is hard enough comparing two teams from different conferences who have no opponents who were the same.  While conferences do have unbalanced schedules, they can still be evaluated much more fairly.  The SEC is the best example of this, and is the place where I think the poorest seeding mistake was made.

Lets look at the top of the SEC standings:

• 1) Alabama (16-2, 31-6, 1 AP, 2 Coaches, 2 NET)
• 2) Texas A&M (15-3, 25-10, 17 AP, 17 Coaches, 19 NET)
• 3) Kentucky (12-6, 22-12, 28 AP, 27 Coaches, 26 NET)
• 4T) Missouri (11-7, 25-10, 23 AP, 24 Coaches, 42 NET)
• 4T) Tennessee (11-7, 25-11, 20 AP, 21 Coaches, 4 NET)
• 4T) Vanderbilt (11-7, 22-15, NR in polls, 81 NET)

Obviously, Vanderbilt didn’t make the tournament – I actually think that is a shame despite their NET ranking being awful.  Because they still finished 3 games in the standings ahead of Arkansas and Mississippi State.  At some point, I will need to look deeper into that, but for now, lets focus on the easier argument, Texas A&M.

Based on the published S-curve, the committee made Tennessee (14) a 4 seed, Kentucky (23) a 6 seed, Texas A&M (25) a 7 seed, and Missouri (27) a 7 seed.  The Aggies beat Tennessee and finished 4 games ahead in the standings.  You could say that they were punished for non-conference losses to teams like Murray State and Wofford.  But each of these teams had a blemish (maybe not as bad as those), but the Aggies also won the games in the conference that these other teams did not.  They also made it all the way to the SEC championship game (which these other teams did not).  The polls and NET agreed that Texas A&M should be a 5 seed.  But instead a non-ranked team in Kentucky got put in front of them.

Maybe it was because of the bad losses, but I suspect it was more because of the non-conference strength of schedule (although the Big 12 schools didn’t get penalized so maybe it was the bad losses).  Texas A&M had a NET NC SOS of 248.  From a quick scan, the only at-large teams with a worse NC SOS were Kansas State (310), TCU (292), Northwestern (295), Penn State (278) and Providence (289).

But when you look at the schedule closer, the Aggies played a road game at Memphis, a neutral court game against Boise State and Colorado, a road game against DePaul, and a home game against Oregon State.  Yes, DePaul, Colorado and Oregon State might not be the best from the power conferences, but how many teams played 3 of them in non-conference.  And then add two non-power conference teams that made the tournament.  Lets take Boise State to compare – they played Colorado, Washington State (and of course, Texas A&M) – so 3 power conference schools – all on neutral courts.  None of their other opponents out of conference made the tournament (so certainly no one like Memphis or Boise State).  Their NC SOS was 135th.  So, I would argue that the Aggies played 2 more tougher teams, and ended up with a ranking 113 teams worse.  If you play a team that really stinks, it crushes your ranking – which is a shame because the committee uses that as a reason to hold teams back (ask Rutgers and Clemson who both had NC SOS > 300).

I struggle that a 25-11 team that went 11-7 in conference gets a 4 seed, and a 25-10 team that went 15-3 in the same conference gets a 7 seed, especially when both the polls both ranked the 7 seed team higher than the 4 seed.  I think this is really the only place the committee made a huge seeding mistake.

In the next post, I will go deeper into what I would change – and conference record is involved (along with me being hypocritical and using tournament results).