Stomp The Lunatic

So, I have the benefit of hind-sight as I write this, so it is a little unfair. For Part 1 of this, I am going to try to remember back to my feelings before many of the games started. But since we have the benefit of hindsight, I have to include a little about how the tournament went. I will try to be fair and mention some things I was wrong on as well.

The process is amazing

The thing I loved the most is something they really didn’t do, but I have to give the NCAA credit. The tournament is fool-proof. And a large part of that is because of the selection committee procedures. But the part that I love the most is how each conference’s top 3 teams must be placed in different regions if they are in the protected top 4 seeds. Then, they try to avoid these teams playing a conference opponent until the regional final. It sometimes can’t happen (such as when a conference like the Big 10 has 9 teams), but they do their best.

Lets remember what this gives us (without names):

West – WCC champs, ACC reg season champs, Big 12 third place team (tourney runner-up), and SEC 4th place team.

East – Big 12 reg-season co-champ, SEC reg season tied for 2nd, Big 10 third place team (tourney runner-up), and Pac 12 reg-season 2nd place team (tourney runner-up).

South – Pac 12 champs, Big East tourney champ (and 2nd place reg season), SEC tourney champ (tied 2nd reg season), and Big 10 reg season co-champ

Midwest – Big 12 tourney champ (and reg season co-champ), SEC reg season champ, Big 10 reg season co-champ, and Big East regular season champ

So, 11 of the top 16 teams won either their regular season championship or tournament championship, all the power conferences are represented, and they are split so they don’t play anyone they have played before the regional final. You simply can’t go wrong. We can debate if Tennessee should be a 2 seed and Duke should be a 3 seed, but in the end, you set up the champs to play other champs. And once again, it has led to an outstanding tournament.

Conference tournaments apparently don’t matter

Before the tournament, I really didn’t like this. The SEC tournament is the biggest example of this. Both at the top and at the bubble.

Lets look at the top first. Kentucky and Tennessee were tied for 2nd in the SEC. They split their games in the regular season, both defending their home courts. Going in, Kentucky is 5th in the polls and Tennessee is 9th – so people felt the Wildcats are felt as slightly better. Then, the SEC tournament happens and watches the Volunteers beat Kentucky in the semi-finals and go on to win the SEC tournament. So you had to figure the Vols would jump Kentucky. Even the polls agreed with me – as the final AP poll had Tennessee at 5th and Kentucky dropped to 7th.

Then, when the bracket comes out, Kentucky is a 2 seed as the 6th overall team, and Tennessee is a 3 seed as the 10th overall team. How is that even possible. Two teams from the same conference – tied in the standings and split their games – you would think the team that wins in the tournament would get the edge. Instead, the Volunteers reward for winning the SEC tournament is getting ranked also behind Wisconsin who lost in the Big 10 tourney quarter-finals to Michigan State.

I can see the committee not wanting to do what I did and put three SEC teams on the 2nd line. But then why weren’t the 2 teams the SEC reg season champ Auburn and the SEC tourney champ Tennessee.

The bubble side was just as confusing. Texas A&M was clearly on the bubble – with a NET ranking of 43rd, there were not a lot of at large team spots left. Before the tournament, they were only 2-9 against the Top Quadrant teams. The Aggies then beat fellow bubble team Florida, Auburn – who ended up being a 2 seed and then Arkansas – who ended up being a 4 seed before finally falling to the Volunteers.

So, it was a crazy surprise to see that the Aggies didn’t make it to the dance. All the bubble teams have double digit losses – they all have flaws. But not many of them have victories against two teams ranked in the top 16. And isn’t that who you want in the tournament as your 10-12 seeds. Someone who is inconsistent but capable of beating anyone.

The Aggies didn’t change my opinions from their performance in the NIT – making it all the way to the NIT final and losing on a shot with 3 seconds left to Xavier – who has a different fascinating profile. But this is about the conference tourneys. The Aggies looked like they were peaking at the right time to make a run in March – except they apparently peaked to late.

The SEC had 6 teams in the top 6 seed lines – with the two 6 seeds being 9-9 in the conference. LSU was 22-11 overall, 9-9 in conference, and of teams in the at-large part of the field they had home victories against Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. If that is the profile of a 6 seed, why did Texas A&M, who was 23-12 overall, 9-9 in same conference, and of teams in the at-large part of the field had a road victory against Alabama and neutral court victories against Auburn, Arkansas and Notre Dame, not even get in the field. The Aggies had the same record, had all their big victories away from home, and had one more big victory than the 6 seed from their conference and are not even worth an 11 seed.

The only reasonable explanations for that are somehow LSU had a NET ranking that was 18th instead of 43rd (which I don’t understand how that happened and still doesn’t explain why they don’t at least deserve an 11 seed$ or that the tournament games don’t count and so the Aggies don’t get credit for their 2 big victories over top 16 teams.

What to do with the Mountain West

At the end of the day, I am not upset that Wyoming got one of the last spots. I have always said that I would rather see a runner-up from a non-power conference make it over a 18-15 power conference team like Oklahoma. But was the 4th place team from the Mountain West the right choice.

4 Mountain West teams made it – and they created a confusing set of rankings.

Colorado State was ranked 23rd in the polls – and they beat St Mary’s and Creighton. They split against SD State and Wyoming and swept Boise St. But they lost twice to UNLV to fall to 2nd in the standings and lost to San Diego St in the semi-finals

Then you have Boise State. Boise St lost those two to Colorado St and once to Wyoming, but then won the other 15 conference games (including the other game against Wyoming and a sweep of San Diego St). They also swept UNLV to make up the losses to CSU. They beat power conference teams that didn’t make the tourney in Mississippi and Washington State but they also lost two games to some of the best in the Atlantic 10 (St Bonaventure and St Louis) – which is relevant later. They also beat Wyoming and SD State to win the conf tournament. It is weird that a team wins their conference regular season title, beats everyone again in the tourney, and falls 2 seed lines below the conference runner-up. But I guess there is enough weirdness with their non-conference and the fact that they were swept by the runner-up. I don’t agree with it but I can see the complexity

San Diego St finished 3rd in the conference – they have also a victory against St. Mary’s. They have the 2 victories against Colorado State and a victory against Wyoming, but the could not figure out Boise State in three games.

This brings us to Wyoming. The Cowboys finished 4th. In non-conference, they did beat CSU Fullerton and Washington, but the game against a top 40 team against Arizona ended in a 29 point defeat. They managed to hold their home court against Boise State and Colorado State but lost in the conference tournament to Boise State.

Should this be enough? The conference has only beat St. Mary’s twice and beat Creighton. Not Wyoming – the top 6 teams from the conference (I checked out UNLV and Fresno State as well). Why not reward another non-power conference with an extra bid.

That brings us back to the Atlantic 10. Dayton was tied for 2nd in the conference with VCU. Unlike Wyoming, when they played a number 1 seed in Kansas, they successfully pulled the upset. They also beat Miami FL in that November tournament. They also won on their home court against Virginia Tech and Davidson before getting upset in the conference tournament by March darling Richmond.

So, Dayton had arguably a bigger win in Kansas and the same number of non-conference victories as the top 3 teams from the Mountain West conferences. And so it makes sense that they are behind Wyoming who has only the two Mt West home victories on their resume. One could point out that Wyoming was 50th in the NET and Dayton was 58th. But if NET is the reason, I could probably list out a few other deserving mid-majors who were ahead of Wyoming in the NET rankings – 47th North Texas who won the Conf USA regular season, 45th SMU was the runner-up in the American but got passed up by 3rd place Memphis – who got a 9 seed (and by the way then beat 8th seeded Boise State).

I am thrilled the committee wanted to reward a talented non-power conference team. I just think there were probably better choices. Hindsight then agreed with me as the Mountain West went 0-4 in the tournament.

We both went wrong with the ACC

I don’t like the fact that UNC was ranked in the top 25 after their big victory against Duke and ended up as an 8 seed. The Tar Heels didn’t seem to mind – since they are playing tonight in the Final Four. But it is ridiculous that non-ranked 9-9 teams from the SEC are getting 6 seeds and the Tar Heels who were tied for 2nd in the ACC settle for an 8 seed.

I also don’t like that Notre Dame, the other 14-4 team tied for second in the ACC, ended up in the play-in game. The play-in game should be for middle of the road 9-9 or 8-10 power conference teams that sneak into the tournament, not a 2nd place team. Notre Dame couldn’t win any of their multiple games against tourney teams in non-conference, but they did beat UNC, Miami and Virginia Tech. Somehow, Miami who finished 4th in the conference jumped them in the standings – would the Irish have been in the Final Four and if conference standings mattered and they switched places with the Hurricanes – maybe. Regardless, they should not have been in the play-in game.

Conference standings should matter!!!

As I have been typing this, I have noticed multiple times the committee reversed the standings. It is hard to say in every case – might be a research topic for Sunday. But it doesn’t seem right.

I agree that we are putting in teams instead of conferences. I am glad that non-conference games matter as well. But it is hard enough to compare Memphis to Creighton to North Carolina – we should be able to leverage the conference standings to at least have a good ranking between teams that play each other.

There have been a few examples here, but I will add one more. Creighton was 4th in the Big East, 1 game ahead of Seton Hall and Marquette. Creighton then made it to the Big East championship while Seton Hall lost in the quarterfinals to UConn. Yet, Seton Hall ended up an 8 seed, and Creighton was a 9 seed – probably due to the fact that the Hall swept Creighton. But that says something in the standings of a league with a relatively balanced home and away. Creighton was 3 games better in the standings against the rest of the conference…..

Creighton ended up winning an exciting game against San Diego State, while Seton Hall got destroyed by TCU. So, maybe it all worked out for Creighton – but we are grading the committee here. If it is really due to uneven schedules, it is one thing – but otherwise, the conference standings should matter in the rank ordering.

So glad to be wrong!!!

In my bracketology, I had St. Peter’s as a 14 seed and Yale as a 15 seed. But the selection committee felt that those teams should be swapped.

If the Selection Committee listened to me, my Boilers might have lost their 3 point game in the First Round instead of the Sweet 16 – glad that the Committee was right and believed the team we beat by 22 points was better….

I am sure that if my bracket had been the final, people could rip apart the inconsistencies as well. The Selection Committee deserves credit for coming up with a great tournament. I can not-pick seeding, but at the end of the day, the teams still get to play the games on the court.

Speaking of which, not sure I will have time for part 2 before the game starts. Kansas and Villanova tip-off a great night of basketball in New Orleans in 20 minutes!!!! Enjoy the games!!!!

As many of you know, the Lunatic does his insane handicapping of all 67 games. And after writing my reasons for my picks, I realized that it is also the perfect Lunatic preview of the Final Four. Or maybe I am just desperate to not stay up past midnight. It is hard to tell sometimes.

I have had a hard time getting my expert staff together to do our roundtable. Katie’s expert opinion would be it is only 3 more days until this nonsense is over and she can start to watch her TV shows again. Charlie has been busy with his swim team’s end of season awards, soccer practices and a party tonight with his friends, and with his picks eliminated in the pool, he probably doesn’t even care about who wins. And then of course, we have Katie’s rugby match on Saturday. I could probably get my wonderful wife, Elizabeth, to pick the two games with me, but she is being nice enough to let me watch the Stanford / UConn game, so I won’t make her pick. Although she has told me that she wants to let everyone know that she is a plumbing genius, fixing our toilet fill valve in our downstairs bathroom this afternoon.

Maybe I can get them together on Sunday for the championship game. For the Final Four, we will settle for the professional betting opinions of the Crazed Lunatic, live from the Lunatic Casino, so that you don’t need to go to the Handicapping page to find his madness……..

LUNATIC’S DISCLAIMER – For those who do not look at the Lunatic’s handicapping page, please remember that the Lunatic Casino only deals with imaginary money. If I bet for real, I would most definitely jinx any team I pick and lose huge amounts of money. These four teams are all great, and should not have to worry about any crazy curse from a middle-aged sleep-deprived fan. But that fan has to pick someone – it is just for fun.

At this point, the Lunatic could be safe. His current progress against the spreads is 33-30-1, putting him down $17. But his progress against the over/under is 36-26-2, putting him ahead $121. It is crazy that at this point in the tournament that the Lunatic is ahead $104.

There are only 6 potential bets left. The Lunatic could simply say that he is unsure about all 3 games, bet $10 for each of the 6 bets, and walk away with no less than a $44 victory. But any degenerate gambler would never do this. So, neither will the Lunatic. You should always respect a streak, and the Lunatic is on one. Have to take a risk to get a great reward. No one wants to simply leave the Lunatic Casino winning enough to pay for the parking garage outside. Go Big or Go Home!!!!

As I type this, the Lunatic Casino’s host comes over and says, “We love to have you here, Mr. Hodgson. Please accept this comp at our amazing prime rib buffet, and afterwards, maybe you would like to sit down at one of our blackjack tables. We really appreciate your business at our Sportsbook, and maybe you would like to try your luck at one of our other games.”

The Lunatic should be afraid. But he does love a good prime rib. And he definitely loves college basketball. Here we go!!!!

6:09 pm – #1 Kansas (-4) vs #2 Villanova (OVER/UNDER: 133)

Kansas is responsible for knocking off 2 of the best teams in the Big East in Providence (beat by 5) and Creighton (beat by 7). While both of those games got close at times, Kansas never looked like they didn’t have control of the game. Now, they get the best team from the Big East. But here is the problem for Villanova. Villanova basically plays 6 players. Then, Justin Moore, their 2nd leading scorer, tore his achilles in the final minute against Houston. In the last 3 games, other than their 6th man Caleb Daniels, the only other players who have come off Villanova’s bench are Bryan Antoine (who has played 8 minutes over the 3 games) and Chris Arcidiacono (who has played 6 minutes over the 3 games). Maybe the Wildcats top 5 remaining players can play the whole game. Maybe Caleb Daniels can take over Moore’s place in the lineup and someone will step up to take over Moore’s scoring. Kansas would have been the favorite if Moore was in the line-up. Add Moore’s injury and the fact that it is only a 4 point line and you have to take the Jayhawks. Kansas’ last two games fell under 133 and Villanova’s last three fell under 133, and it is unclear who will replace Moore’s scoring for Villanova. So, I would take the under.

LUNATIC’S PICKS – Kansas ($30) / Under ($30)

8:49 pm – #2 Duke (-4) vs #8 North Carolina (OVER/UNDER: 151)

It is kind of crazy that Coach K has led Duke for 42 years, the Blue Devils and Tar Heels have won so many National Championships, and yet this is the first time these two powerhouses have met in the tournament. However, we have the benefit of the ACC regular season to handicap this game. In their first game at Chapel Hill, Duke jumped out to a 31-8 lead, and coasted to a 87-67 victory. In their second game in Coach K’s farewell to Cameron Arena, the Blue Devils led by 7 in the second half, and then North Carolina finished on an amazing run to beat Duke 94-81. I think that the pressure of Coach K’s finale got to the young Blue Devils at Cameron. And you would think that there is a tremendous amount of pressure to get Coach K to the championship game. But I also think that this is the best thing that could have happened to Duke in this pressure packed game. Pride and revenge are interesting motivations. Duke was the better team for 68 of the 80 minutes these teams played this year. So, while UNC is playing like a different team from that first game – having won 10 of their last 11 games, you have to pick the ACC regular season champs in this game. And since both games covered the over, I will take Duke in a high scoring game.

LUNATIC’S PICKS – Duke ($30) / Over ($30)

Normally I use this week to blog about all types of things – both college basketball and non-basketball related. This can be a tough week for those of us who are completely crazy for the madness of March.

After non-stop basketball for most of the month, it can be a tough 5 days to wait for the weekend’s Final 4 games.

I have wanted to write something about how the Selection Committee did (pretty well). I have wanted to talk about how my bad bracketology had an interesting result. I have wanted to talk about how the game is too physical.

But I am apparently getting old. My ability to deal with sleep deprivation appears to get worse each year. I told myself I would blog Thursday night, noticed the NIT championship was close and started watching the game (which if you didn’t see the last post, the game was really fantastic), and then it was 9:30 pm and I was such a mess that I couldn’t type a coherent thought.

I will do my best to catch up. At a minimum, it should be a fantastic weekend. Obviously, we are all excited about an incredible Final 4 that comprises 4 of the most successful programs in history. Kansas vs Villanova would normally be considered a showcase game in any Final 4, and this year, we all know the buzz is about Duke and North Carolina in the other semi-final.

But I also need to mention, if you simply love basketball, don’t forget to tune into ESPN tonight. The women’s Final 4 is tonight – and based on the final AP rankings, they have 4 of the 5 top ranked teams battling it out (NC State was ranked 3rd but lost in the regional final in a thrilling double overtime game to UConn). At 7 pm, AP #1 South Carolina plays #4 Louisville. And at 9:30 pm, #2 Stanford plays #5 Connecticut.

The best women and men in college basketball will be showcasing their amazing talent in what should be an amazing Final 4!!!! Can’t wait for the games to start!

I admit that I don’t pay a ton of attention to the NIT – typically teams either show up excited to either prove they should have been in the dance or excited to just get a chance to keep playing. Or they crash and burn after the heartache of being left out of the dance.

But the two teams in the NIT were interesting finalists who put on a great show. In one corner, you had Texas A&M who had that amazing run in the SEC Tournament to only lose in the championship game to Tennessee – going into the championship, they had won 12 of their last 14 games. They went from completely out of the picture to one game away from making the tournament and definitely in the bubble conversation.

In the other corner, you had Xavier who looked like a lock for the tournament, and then lost 8 of their last 10 regular season games to fall onto the wrong side of the bubble conversation. And then, impressively won their 4 NIT matches to get to the final.

Texas A&M jumped out to an 8 point lead at halftime, but Xavier came back. The game at the end was an awesome back and forth of Texas A&M getting the lead and Xavier taking it back. With 27 seconds left, Quenton Jackson drove to the lane for the Aggies and was fouled. Jackson calmly hit both free throws to take the lead by 1.

Xavier’s Adam Kunkel missed a contested layup but Zack Freemantle got the rebound. Freemantle tried to go back up with the ball, but his shot was met with a thunderous block by A&M’s Ethan Henderson. But that still gave Xavier one more shot.

The ball comes in to Jack Nunge, who made an aggressive move from the post into the lane and hooked the ball with his right hand over the A&M defender off the backboard and into the basket for a 1 point lead with 3 seconds left.

Tyrese Radford charged down the court hoping to have one last chance to win the game. He dribbled as close as he could before time ran out, put up a runner as the buzzer goes off, the ball hits the rim, rattles around as if it is going to win the game, and then at the last moment, kicks off and drops harmlessly to the ground.

It was a great game – congratulations to Xavier on winning the NIT!!!! Hopefully, the Final Four will bring just as exciting of a finish to the 2022 season!

If you need a little more basketball in your life, head to ESPN to watch the NIT championship. Texas A&M and Xavier are going back and forth in a tight game with about 10 minutes left!!!!

I had a feeling that this would happen. I wish it would have happened on Friday, but it eventually happens with Cinderella.

As I stated in my handicapping, this game was a little different because of how North Carolina plays. I thought things might get out of hand if they keep playing a pressure style of defense.

One of the announcers said it perfectly. Kentucky and Purdue tried to take advantage of their size by passing into the post and let their talented big men try to score. UNC took advantage of their size but in a slightly different way. They used dribble penetration to get into the lane and draw St. Peter’s big men to the ball. Then, they could dump the ball off to their big men to finish off the drive. And it worked perfectly.

North Carolina jumped out to a 9-0 lead and never looked back – coasting to a 69-49 victory.

On the broadcast, they mentioned that this is the first time UNC and Duke are meeting in the tournament. How crazy fitting that in Coach K’s last season, he gets one more chance to end with a victory against such a rival. While the St. Peter’s story was nice, we all know this is the game most college basketball fans wanted to see next Saturday.

Congratulations to the North Carolina Tar Heels for making the Final Four.

And what a great Final Four we have. In one semi-final, we have the Big 12 champions Kansas playing against the Big East champions Villanova. And in the other semi-final, we have the two best teams from the ACC, regular season champ Duke against runner-up North Carolina playing for the opportunity to represent the ACC in the championship.

At halftime, the 10th seeded Miami Hurricanes were up 35-29.

And then the skies cleared and the Jayhawks came out to play. The Big 12 champions showed why they were the last remaining 1 seed in the tournament. And they showed they had no intentions of leaving just yet.

Miami only scored 15 points in the second half, while the top ranked Jayhawks put up 47 points. Kansas looked like they couldn’t miss – they would have these beautiful passes that led to dunk after dunk. Then, Miami as they fell further behind would force up three pointers that would not fall.

It might have been one of the most complete performances that I have seen in the tournament. If the Jayhawks can figure out how to play like that for 4 more halves, they might very well be cutting down the nets in New Orleans as well as Chicago. Of course, I am sure that Villanova, Duke and the winner of the UNC/St. Peter’s will also have something to say about that.

For now, Kansas can be happy with their 76-50 victory over the Hurricanes. Congratulations to the Jayhawks!

This was supposed to be when the pressure would mount so high for the Duke Blue Devils. Well, this time, Duke answered any questions with a crazy balanced attack.

Duke really only played 6 players (Theo John got onto the court for 5 minutes as their 7th player). But all 6 of those players scored at least 9 points in a really balanced attack.

AJ Griffin led scoring with 18 points , going 7-9 from the field. Paolo Banchero added 16 and Wendell Moore added 14. Mark Williams went a perfect 6-6 for 12 points. Jeremy Roach had 9 points and Trevor Keels came off the bench to add 9 points. All-in-all, they went 29-53 (54.7%) from the field.

This is made more impressive by the fact that this is the same Arkansas team that shut down Gonzaga with their defense 2 nights ago. We talk about how defenses are dominating this tournament, but I don’t know what you do when you have a team where all 5 players can step up and score. You can’t just decide to stop Banchero – then someone else will beat you.

Arkansas did try to close the gap in the second half, even cutting the lead to 5. But nothing was going to stop the Blue Devils today. They quickly built the lead back to double digits and never looked back.

I am starting to wonder if this story has already been written by the college basketball fates, and we are simply watching the script unfold. This final run broke a tie with legendary coach John Wooden. Coach K now has led the most teams (13) to a Final 4. Let that number just sink in for a moment. Over 30 percent of the seasons that Coach K has coached at Duke have ended in the Final Four.

So amazing. And while I know that Cinderella St. Peter’s will have something to say about it, we are one win away from seeing Coach K get one more chance against North Carolina – with this time, the prize would be playing in the national championship. No offense to the Peacocks, since lets face it, who wouldn’t want to see a 15 seed make it to the Final Four – but think about how much it would mean to college basketball fans if Duke and UNC played in Coach K’s last Final Four.

Congratulations to the ACC champion Duke Blue Devils!!!