Stomp The Lunatic

What a fantastic Elite 8 – well with the exception of my Boilermakers losing in overtime.  But alliances aside, as a college basketball fan, how could you have asked for a better Elite 8?  We had two games go to overtime, another game go to the buzzer ending as a one point upset victory, and the other game being a 2 point game with 12 seconds before free throws stretched the lead to a 6 point upset victory.  You really could not have asked for four better games if you were not a fan of one of the four losing teams.

And that fantastic four also left us with 4 champions.  The best 4 conferences all have sent one of their champions to Minneapolis.  The SEC Tournament Champion Auburn will try to upset the last remaining #1 seed – ACC Regular Season Co-Champion Virginia (ironically, Auburn was the team that took out the other ACC regular season co-champion).   And Big 12 regular season co-champion Texas Tech will try to take out the only remaining team that won a share of their regular season championship as well as their tournament championship – Big 10 champion Michigan State.

Once again, can’t ask for more – the four best conferences are sending their champions to the Final Four to battle for the NCAA Championship.  And if the Final Four and Championship are anything like the Elite 8, we are in for a treat.

This becomes a very important point in the standings – at this point, if you have Michigan State, Texas Tech, Virginia or Auburn, you are thrilled that you might still have a chance to win or place in the pool.  Or you could be like the Lunatic, where you have no more possible ways of scoring points and now are simply a spectator as you watch people continue to leap-frog you in the standings.

The person in the best position at the moment is our Standard Pool leader – Jim Carini.  Jim has been in this position before as he was our 2004 Champion.  But unlike in the actual games, experience doesn’t lead you to victory – your picks do.  And Jim had the foresight to predict Virginia to beat Texas Tech in the championship.  His 990 points not only has the lead – but he also has his champion and runner-up both alive.  But Jim is not running away with this.

John Woodburn and Ian Berglund are both tied for second at 950 points – but neither can catch Jim as John has Duke and Ian has Virginia.  Ethan Busby  (who had Duke beating Auburn) and Kyle Kelly (the top person in the standings with Michigan State) are tied at 4th with 940 points.  Brody Atkinson and Brian Lawton are tied at 6th with 930 points.  And Rosemary McKnight, Rich Napolitano, John Howarth and Lauren Martin are tied for 8th at 920.

In the Upset Pool, John Woodburn has a slim 1 point lead at 263 points.  Brody Atkinson is one point behind at 262 points, Lauren Martin is in 3rd and 260 points, Kyle Kelly is 4th at 256 points, and Michael Cheung and Murli Buluswar are in 5th at 255 points.  But it looks like we have a few people who are within striking distance that could make a move up the standings if one of the four remaining teams win.

In the Second Chance Pool, we have a tie at the top as Joshua Glass and Sam Luy are both at 520 points.  Wendy Joseph is clinging onto third all alone at 480 points, but is followed closely by Evan Goldstein at 440 points and 10 others at 400 points.

We do have one prize that is settled – as typically is by this point.  Wendy Joseph is unofficially the person who is in last place in the standings and in the money pool as her upset picks of Villanova, Belmont, Michigan and UNC did not do well – giving her a total of 290 points.  The normal tradition is to say that she should not have challenged the Lunatic, but with the Lunatic doing so poorly, we will just say that her upsets didn’t turn out well.

The Lunatic is going to get a thorough stomping.  He is in a large tie for 123rd place, and has no possible way of scoring any more points as Duke and UNC were eliminated over the last two rounds.  Yet that stomping is nothing compared to watching his Boilers lose that 3 point lead with 6 second left (and then living in Virginia so that every sports radio station can help him relive those 6 seconds over and over again).

Sometime this week, I will try to create the unofficial scenarios pages – that way, you can see what outcome in the Final Four is the best for you.  After two weeks of sleep deprivation, I am going to spread things out throughout the week instead of staying up until midnight each night.

Kenny Goins drilled a three pointer with 39 seconds left, and Michigan State took a 68-66 lead. RJ Barrett tried to give the Blue Devils back the lead with a three pointer but missed. In the scrum for the ball, Duke got it back for one more chance.

RJ Barrett drove to the basket and got fouled. But he missed the first free throw. Then two ironic moments happened. Barrett tried to intentionally miss the second free throw to give them one more chance with an offensive rebound. The ball went hard off the back of the rim, but bounced straight up high in the air and went in the basket.

But there was one more problem. Duke only had 3 fouls in the half – they couldn’t force MSU to the line. They were able to foul once but on the next in-bounce, MSU threw it downcourt and were able to run out the clock. This time, Duke’s luck at the buzzer ran out. And the Big 10 champion Michigan State Spartans are on the way to Minneapolis.

It took overtime. But the Auburn Tigers were able to rally in the second half after being down 11 early in the first half and still down 5 at halftime. Jared Harper was unbelievable – scoring 26 points and leading the Tigers to the 77-71 overtime victory.

It didn’t matter that they were playing a Wildcats team that had beaten them twice this season. It didn’t matter that they lost Chuma Okeke – who tore his ACL against UNC in the Sweet 16.

And so the last non-champion has been eliminated. It will be the SEC Tournament Champion Auburn taking on ACC regular season champion Virginia in one half of the Final Four. And then Big 12 regular season champion will await the winner of ACC Tournament Champion Duke and Big 10 regular season / tournament champion Michigan State.

Now the game many of us have been waiting for since the brackets were announced. Blue Devils and Spartans is coming!!!!

The sting still hurts.  I can’t stop thinking about it.  So, why not blog on it.  It was my premise that I hate Matt Painter’s decision to foul with 6 seconds while being up 3 points.  But lets be fair – if Purdue had got the defensive rebound on the missed FT, the Boilermakers would be heading to the Final Four and people would be talking about how smart it was of Painter to foul.

It is easy to play arm-chair coach after you know the results of the decision.  I can say it is the wrong decision because I saw after that decision was made, Virginia did tie the game.  But who knows – maybe Virginia would have hit a three pointer if they had defended – and the overtime still happens with the Cavaliers prevailing.

Then, my friend Dave sent me down the rabbit hole.  He texted me that a stat study showed playing defense was the right decision.   And he is right – both John Ezekowitz and Ken Pomeroy did studies on this.  I will use Pomeroy’s study – since he is known as one of the premier college basketball statisticians, and because his study had more data points since he accumulated data over more seasons.

Pomeroy found 814 games where a team got the ball down 3 points between 5 to 12 seconds.   138 of the cases, the leading team decided to foul.  In those cases, 5 times that leading team ended up losing in regulation, while 11 went to overtime.  If you made the assumption that overtime was a 50/50 event, fouling in this situation led to a 92% winning percentage.

On the other hand, for the 676 cases where the leading team defended – they only lost twice in regulation (on the dreaded four point play where the three pointer went in – and they got fouled giving them the chance to win the game).  Another 76 games went to overtime – leading to a 93.5% winning percentage.

What does this information tell the Lunatic……

• It is crazy hard to hit a three pointer when the defense knows your only choice is to shoot a three pointer.  It appears as though some coaches already have planned defenses for this to make it even more difficult.  But you are not looking at the normal 30-40% three point percentage that teams take during the normal parts of the game.  Pomeroy mentioned later in his study that teams only hit 16% of these types of three-pointers (and remember for the most part, these only tie the game).
• What if you could develop a defense that does this better – the reason coaches foul is that a team can’t tie the game from the FT line – but the problem is it lets the other team get closer without time coming off the clock.  What if you could create a defense that double-teamed the ball at the expense of allowing the opponent to have any two-point shot that they want.  You end up with the same result as the FTs – except more time has been taken off the clock and there is no chance of an offensive rebound leading to a bad result.  I bet a good coach could make that 16% Pomeroy observed be even less.
• I still think there are more risks to the fouling strategy.  Pomeroy noticed that 5 out of 138 cases ended with a loss in regulation.  Stranger things happen because of the dynamic the fouls create.  You have extended the game.  You have the defensive rebound situation that happened to Purdue – that could have just as easily ended in a three-pointer…  But even if they make both FTs, there is still 5-6 seconds left and now your lead is one point and they are going to foul you.  If you miss one of the FTs, you have now given the other team basically the same amount of time, but now this time, a three-pointer wins the game and they can still drive to the basket to force overtime.  Sure – they have to go the distance of the court – but most teams can do that with 5 seconds.
• That being said, while there is a slight edge towards defending, you are looking at two strategies that end up with relatively the same results.  So, while painful, you can’t really second guess this decision – teams lose either way at a relatively equal rate.

And then there is one last more painful realization this information gives.  With 6 seconds left in the game, Purdue had a 92% chance of making their first Final Four since 1980.  And they were in the unlucky 8% chance that ended their season.

This exercise didn’t help the Lunatic at all – while the stats show the Lunatic is probably  right, it is not by enough of a margin that it matters.  And it puts into focus that at that  fateful moment in time last night, my Boilers had a 92% of making the Final Four.   92%!!!!!!!

A missed free throw. What I think is a bad coaching decision to foul. A Virginia team that was crazy physical and beat us to every rebound.

Carson Edwards was incredible with 42 points – but it just wasn’t enough. I do have to say that I hate the decision to foul with a three point lead – you are getting killed on the glass and you bring that into play. So what if they hit the three pointer and send it to overtime. You have to make them hit what is a 35% shot with the pressure of their season being over to top it.

That tip out gave Virginia the chance to win or tie the game – and although it was amazing that they tracked it down in time and amazing they scored (it was such a great shot by Mamadi Diakite to send it to overtime), I would have rather played tough defense and make them hit the three.

You will notice in the similiar situation with 6 seconds and a 3 point lead, Virginia did not foul – they played tough defense, forced a bad pass and won the game.

But this one is going to sting for a while. My Boilers were 5 seconds away from heading to the Final Four for the first time since 1980. And they simply couldn’t hang on. They played their hearts out and played great. But Virginia also played great and were just a little bit better.

Thanks to my Boilers for giving me a memorable NCAA Tournament. And congratulations to the Virginia Cavaliers for advancing to the Final Four.

I have to give some credit to one of the CBS announcers (unfortunately, it was so late when he said it that I can’t remember who exactly it was) – but they made a great comment about the Virginia vs. Purdue game that I totally agree with.

He was talking about how great both coaches were – and talked a little bit about how unfair the criticism on Virginia was last year.  Then he finished with this thought – the best part about the South Regional final on Saturday will be this – at the end of it, either Coach Tony Bennett or Coach Matt Painter will be going to their first Final Four, and regardless of which one of them makes it, them being in the Final Four is good for the game of college basketball.

I could not agree more – both Tony Bennett and Matt Painter are fantastic coaches and have created amazing programs that sometimes get overlooked because they don’t get the Zion Williamson’s or R.J. Barrett’s in recruiting.  But they do recruit good players that are really good at playing their roles, and then they put them in incredible offensive and defensive schemes that are tough to stop.

While I am biased and want my Boilermakers to be the ones heading to Minneapolis, the game couldn’t get a better representative from the South than Tony Bennett or Matt Painter.

 

Oh who am I kidding – I can’t provide a legitimate Elite 8 preview.  I am too crazy excited!!!!!!!   My Boilermakers are in the Elite 8!!!!!!  I don’t care that my bracket is going down in flames!!!!!  Purdue has a legitimate chance at making the Final 4 – nothing could be better (well, other than them actually making the Final 4, winning that game to get to the National Championship, or winning it all)!!!!!!

.But I will do my best, we have a great set of games.  We have maybe the best example of elite offense playing against elite defense as Gonzaga will try to beat Texas Tech out west.  We have the ACC regular season co-champion playing the Big 10 regular season co-champion as Virginia plays Purdue in the south  We get another ACC / Big 10 clash as the two conference’s tournament champions play each other – will #1 Duke beat Michigan State despite the injury to Cam Reddish.  And of course, we can’t forget in the Midwest that Auburn and Kentucky will be fighting to determine who gets to represent the SEC in the Final Four.

There is something for everyone.  Amazing star power (Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett are incredible).  Amazing Hall of Fame Coaches playing each other as Coach K and Coach Izzo go head to head.  Amazing offenses like Gonzaga and Purdue.  Amazing defenses like Texas Tech and Virginia.  The fast pace three point shooting style of Auburn.  And we can’t forget about Coach Calapari and his star player PJ Washington coming back from injury at just the right time.

The champions have moved their way to the top – the only team left in the tournament that did not win either their regular season championship or conference tournament championship is Kentucky.  And the Wildcats were only the preseason #2 team in the country…….

You could not ask for a better Elite 8 – well, you could ask but odds are you couldn’t actually get a better Elite 8.  We are left with the best teams from the best conferences.  It should be an incredible weekend of basketball – and it starts in less than 2 hours!!!!!!

This will likely be it for my blogging for a while – have friends to meet for dinner and then I will be too insanely intense watching the Boilers!!!!!

ENJOY THE GAMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Brody Atkinson continues to dominate – getting 7 of 8 Elite 8 teams (only missing on Texas Tech over Michigan).  His 850 points in the Standard Pool and 258 points in the Upset Pool are winning both pools.

In the Standard Pool, John Woodburn and Ian Berglund are tied for second behind Brody – at 790 points.  Ethan Busby and Kyle Kelly are within one Final Four finalist in a tie for fourth at 780 points.  And we have a 4 way tie for 6th as Mark Walsh, Brian Lawton, Cheri Searles, and Andrew Braslow are at 770 points.  We also have a 9 way tie for 10th at 760.

In the Upset Pool, Michael Cheung has moved into 2nd place – just 7 points behind Brody.  They are followed closely by John Woodburn and Jocelyn Knox at 247 points, Kyle Kelly at 244 poitns, Murli Buluswar at 243 points, Sam Brunner at 242 points and Earl McKnight at 241 points.

In the Second Chance Pool, we have 7 people tied for first – as Mark Walsh, Haden Hopkins, Tony Bisese, Joshua Glass, Sam Luy, Evan Goldstein, and Martin Poteralski all got 7 of 8 games right..

The Lunatic is hurting – he had moved up to a tie for 64th place, but now has lost the West and Midwest Region champions – and his National Champion  – so he is basically at this point just a spectator.  But that is OK for him – he will be happy to just watch if it means watching his Boilers keep playing!!!  That being said, the Lunatic’s family does have a few people sticking near the leaderboard.  His dad, Edward Hodgson, is one of the 9 people tied for 10th – and his 12 year old son, Charlie is just 10 points behind that in a three way tie for 19th place.

Good luck to everyone in Stomping the Lunatic (although at this point, you might not need much luck)!!!!

One thing that I failed to mention when ranting about North Carolina losing was the horrible injury that happened to Chuma Okeke.  It was ugly – on his drive to the basket, right before jumping for a layup, you can see his foot plant one way and his knee move in the other direction as he crumbled to the ground.  You could tell he hurt himself pretty bad – while you hope good things for the player when he goes for an MRI tomorrow, you have to figure that he will not be playing on Sunday – which is horribly sad.

Auburn’s coach Bruce Pearl stated it perfectly in his post-game interview.  Pearl said that Okeke was the best player on the court tonight (he was destroying the Tar Heels with 20 points and 11 rebounds before going down), and then choked up and could hardly finish his sentence that Okeke was definitely hurt.

I hate to see things like this happen.  I hope that the knee injury isn’t too serious – but it looked pretty bad.  It is sad to watch a player’s season end as the tournament eliminates team after team.  But it is even sadder to watch a player’s season end from an injury.  I hope that I am wrong, but it looks like Auburn will have to figure out how to beat Kentucky without one of their stars.

Houston had come all the way back from down 11 at halftime to tke the lead.  With just 1:16 left on the clock, Houston’s Corey Davis Jr drives to the basket and makes a beautiful teardrop jumper in the lane to take a 3 point lead.  But the Wildcats would not go away.  Kentucky’s PJ Washington made a jumper and got fouled with 56 seconds to try to tie the game – but he missed the free throw.

But Washington would redeem himself.  Houston’s Corey Davis held the ball to drain the clock and then drove to the basket.  And this time, Washington came in and had a beautiful block to keep the lead at one point.  The ball popped out to the Wildcat’s Tyler Herro, who brings the ball up the court and passes to Keldon Johnson in the corner.  As the Houston defense shifts over, you can see Herro call for the ball at the three-point line.  Johnson obliged and the freshman Herro drained the three pointer to take a 2 point lead.

Off a time-out, Houston’s Corey Davis Jr drove hard to the basket but Kentucky played good defense and layup ended up being short.  Kentucky got the rebound and passed the ball out to Herro – who was fouled and calmly hit both free throws.

Houston’s Armoni Brooks missed a deep desperation three pointer, and PJ Washington snagged down the defensive rebound and helped run out the clocks – the Wildcats survived with 62-58.  Thanks to that victory, and Auburn’s upset – the SEC will be guaranteed to send a representative to the Final Four – Kentucky will play SEC Tournament Champion Auburn to try to take the Midwest Region.