Stomp The Lunatic

So, I was getting in the car to pick up lunch from Chick-Fil-A, and made the realization that I could listen to basketball in my car by streaming to my phone (since the audio would bluetooth to my car’s radio). Of course, at noon, the only game on was the America East championship. Most rational people would probably say to themselves, “I know nothing about Hartford or UMass-Lowell, lets just listen to some music on the radio or my favorite songs on my phone.” That is not the Lunatic.

I said to myself, “Awesome – I can listen to the America East championship!!!!!” And then when Chick-Fil-A forgot the bag with all the fries for the meals, I thought “Cool – now I get to watch more of the game!” And then I realized, “I might have a problem of being obsessed about March Madness!”

So, when I got home, I updated the Schedule Excel document to have all the games through yesterday, and updated the viewing guide with times of all the weekend’s games. If I keep updating one of them, it will likely be the one on the bracketology page – after all, that was the point of that page. I still haven’t done much on it – so caught up with watching basketball that I keep forgetting that at some point this weekend, I need to come up with a bracket.

I also sadly just realized that I created the Bracketology blog and never sent out the link. Silly Lunatic. If you look at the links on the side, the 2021 Bracketology blog is now available.

Oh – and congratulations to Hartford for winning the America East conference championship – thanks to the Hawks for kicking off Championship Weekend!!!!

Still is everything and anything. With only 2 days left in the season, all the conference tournaments are either playing their semi-finals or championships on Saturday.

If you want a tournament to watch where you don’t have to turn your channel, the obvious choice is the Big 10 tournament. Your two semi-final games are #4 Michigan vs #9 Ohio State and #3 Illinois vs #5 Iowa. Three of the top 5 teams are playing tomorrow – and they are all in Indianapolis.

There is a surprising amount of bubble intrigue at the moment, and not for the reason you would think. At this point, almost everyone on the bubble has lost in their conference tournament. But with Georgetown playing for the Big East championship and Oregon State playing for the Pac 12 championship, there are certainly lots of teams who will be rooting for Creighton and the winner of tonight’s USC / Colorado semi-final. Those would definitely be bid thieves. Cincinnati has a chance to be a bid thief as well in the American – and quite honestly, with Wichita State and Memphis extremely close to the cut-line (if not already there), they likely would be considered a bid thief as well.

Stolen from the Bracketology page is our tracking the conference tournament champions table. This has either the team who has clinched the conference’s bid – or the remaining games for that conference. In 4 of the conferences playing on the west coast where you see three teams, those are the late semi-finals tonight – the single team is waiting to find out who they will be playing Saturday for the championship.

CONFERENCE	CHAMPION
WCC	#1 Gonzaga (1)
Big 12	Sat 6 pm – #3 Texas (24) vs #5 Oklahoma State (30)
Big 10	Sat 1 pm – #1 Michigan (3) vs #5 Ohio State (9) Sat 3:30 pm – #2 Illinois (4) vs #3 Iowa (5) Sun 3:30 pm – FINAL
SEC	Sat 1 pm – #1 Alabama (7) vs #4 Tennessee (18) Sat 3:30 pm – #2 Arkansas (17) vs #3 LSU (28) Sun 1 pm – FINAL
ACC	Sat 8:30 pm – #2 Florida State (22) vs #4 Georgia Tech (37)
Big East	Sat 6:30 pm – #2 Creighton (25) vs #9 Georgetown (85)
Pac 12	Sat 10:30 pm – #3 Colorado (11) vs #5 Oregon State (106)
American	Sat 3 pm – #1 Wichita State (64) vs #5 Cincinnati (125) Sat 5:30 pm – #2 Houston (6) vs #3 Memphis (52) Sun 3:15 pm – FINAL
Missouri Valley	#1 Loyola-Chicago (10)
Mountain West	Sat 6 pm – #1 San Diego State (21) vs #2 Utah State (49)
Atlantic 10	Sun 1 pm – #1 St. Bonaventure (27) vs #2 VCU (35)
Patriot	Sun Noon – #2 Colgate (8) vs #9 Loyola – Maryland (153)
Big South	#1 Winthrop (54)
Big West	Sat 11:30 pm – #1 UC Santa Barbara (56) vs #2 UC Irvine (105)
MAC	Sat 7:30 pm – #2 Buffalo (76) vs #5 Ohio (110)
Conference USA	Sat 9 pm – #1E Western Kentucky (86) vs #3W North Texas (71)
Atlantic Sun	#1 Liberty (82)
Southland	Sat 9:30 pm – #1 Nicholls (179) vs #2 Abilene Christian (83)
Southern	#1 UNC-Greensboro (84)
OVC	#2 Morehead State (122)
Big Sky	Sat 8 pm – #2 Eastern Washington (121) vs #5 Montana State (235)
America East	#4 Hartford (168)
Horizon	#1 Cleveland State (163)
Summit	#4 Oral Roberts (159)
Sun Belt	#4E Appalachian State (209)
NEC	#4 Mt St Mary’s (162)
Colonial	#6 Drexel (137)
WAC	Sat 10 pm – #1 Grand Canyon (136) vs #3 New Mexico State (183)
MAAC	Sat 4 pm – #7 Fairfield (277) vs #9 Iona (144)
MEAC	Sat 1 pm – N2 Norfolk State (199) vs N3 Morgan State (197)
SWAC	Sat 6 pm – #1 Prairie View A&M (195) vs #3 Texas Southern (229)

First, you get three teams that had to drop out of their conference championship games (that I heard about) due to a positive test for Covid-19. I posted about Virginia, and I imagine most of you saw the news come out about Kansas. But the third one, while going more unnoticed, is really sad. That is because the third was MEAC regular season champion North Carolina A&T. Virginia and Kansas were going to be in the tournament no matter what – but the Aggies only path to the dance was to win the MEAC conference tournament. It is sad to watch any team possibly have their season end this way – but it is slightly more painful to watch a mid-major regular season champion go down like this.

Then, my Boilermakers fell down to #9 Ohio State by 18 points, missed 10 free throws in regulation, and somehow, still came back to tie the Buckeyes in regulation. Just to get out-played in the overtime period and have their Big 10 tournament come to an end. They probably weren’t going to beat Michigan – but would have loved to get a chance to play another game at the court where most of the tournament is going to be played against one of the teams who many believe can win it all. That would have been great experience for my Boilermaker team filled with young players (they have had 4 different freshmen win Big 10 Freshman of the Week honors).

No shame to losing to the #9 team in the country in overtime. And the Boilers will hear their name called on Sunday. But still rough to watch them lose.

The ACC on Thursday stole the headlines before any game had been played as the news was released that someone on Duke tested positive for Covid-19, and the Blue Devils would have to withdraw from the tournament.

Sadly, the news on Friday morning was worse. This time, the team with a positive test was regular-season champion and 16th ranked in the AP Poll Virginia has to withdraw from the tournament.

The message was slightly different – on Thursday, the Duke AD said that the Blue Devils season was over. Today, they simply said that Virginia could not play today.

So, we don’t know if it is just one player or many, and how it will impact the rest of the team getting 7 negative tests before travelling to Indy. But at this point, we are no longer talking about a team that likely wasn’t going to make the tournament without a couple more wins. We are looking at team that very likely is going to be a top 4-6 seed.

Will enough players from Virginia be able to make the trip (the rules apparently say they only need 5)? Will the Cavaliers have their seed dropped if they can’t field a full team by the Selection Committee? Are they going to actually have to use the NCAA Contingency Plans? All of a sudden, the first team out is an even more critical position as the first possible replacement team – at first it sounded like just over-planning, but now it looks like a potentially real scenario.

This will be short – because it is easy. Everything.

The Big East is playing its semi-finals – which will have Seton Hall playing Georgetown to see who gets a chance to crash the dance. And Creighton will play the winner of UConn and DePaul to see who gets to try to stop them.

The Big 12 is playing its semi-finals – kicking off with #2 Baylor vs #12 Oklahoma State with #11 Kansas waiting for the winner of #13 Texas and #20 Texas Tech

The ACC is playing its semi-finals – cant go wrong with Virgina going against Georgia Tech and Florida State waiting for the winner of Virginia Tech vs North Carolina.

The Big 10 quarterfinals are stacked – starting off with #9 Ohio State vs #20 Purdue. Then, you have #4 Michigan vs Maryland, #3 Illinois vs Rutgers, and #5 Iowa vs the Wisconsin / Penn State winner.

The SEC quarterfinals are #6 Alabama vs Mississippi State, Tennessee vs Florida, #8 Arkansas vs Missouri and LSU waiting for the Ole Miss / South Carolina team.

The Pac 12 semi-finals will be late on Friday – with Oregon playing Oregon St, and the other semi-final waiting for the winners of the USC/Utah and the Colorado/California quarters tonight.

Every single one of those games involves someone who is a lock for the tournament or someone who is on the bubble – well, unless Utah and California both pull off upsets tonight. Many of those games will likely involve two tournament teams by the time the Selection Committee announces the bracket on Sunday.

Oh – and lets not forget that the American conference quarterfinals and Mountain West conference semi-finals – both full of mid-major teams on the bubble will be playing as well.

No matter what game you turn on, it is likely going to be good. The only way to go wrong is not to watch any of them. So, enjoy what should be an amazing day of basketball – hopefully it will be as good as Thursday is – well, as long as the games all decide themselves on the court. Don’t want to see any more announcements of teams having to end their season due to quarantine.

You know you are going to have a wild day when the day starts with a new twist in one of the biggest sagas for the week. Everyone is aware of the fact that Duke looked like they would miss the tournament for the first time in a long time as they struggled to an 11-11 record. Knowing they needed a big run in the ACC Tournament, it looked like they were going to try to make that run – as they took down Boston College and Louisville to set up the showdown we were looking forward to against Florida State. And then the announcement.

Duke has a positive test for Covid-19, all their players are going into quarantine, and the AD has announced that the Blue Devil’s season is over. Before the games even started, the media was going crazy. Then, the games start.

Michigan State after all the good will they made from their late season run started off against Maryland early with a 12 point lead, and then apparently forgot how to shoot. At one point, Maryland had built out a 19 point lead – eventually taking out the Spartans 68-57.

Virginia ended Syracuse’s ACC Tournament with a three pointer at the buzzer.

Kentucky’s nightmare of a season was ended when Missisippi State hit two FTs to take the lead and Kentucky’s last second three-pointer didn’t go in.

The Big East tournament has lost their top seed, as injured Villanova fell by one point to Georgetown. And we couldn’t figure out if the bigger piece of news. Was it that the Hoyas have now made the Big East tournament ripe for being a bid-stealer league as Creighton is the only locked team remaining of the final 6 teams (to be fair, UConn is playing well and might be in as well). Or was it the fact that Georgetown coach Patrick Ewing revealed that he was being accosted in Madison Square Garden by security asking the famous New York Knick for his credential passes – how could they not know that it was the Hall of Famer who has his jersey retired in the rafters.

Not sure that the evening can match the drama of the afternoon. But the afternoon surely delivered.

I should be working on my bracketology page. I keep telling myself that I should try to build a model to predict who the Selection Committee will take based on 2019’s tournament. I then realize that I have tried to do that in the past and it never ended well. At a minimum, I should be looking at resumes of bubble teams. Does Xavier’s loss knock them out? Does Syracuse’s win get them in? I think the answer to both of those questions are yes – but it is really anyone’s guess at the moment. Only the Selection Committee really knows for sure – and they are not talking to anyone (well – at least I think they are not. Maybe that is how Lunardi and Palm do so well each year – maybe they get to talk to the committee…..)

That is not completely fair – I don’t know what access the journalists (or bracketologists) get to the Selection Committee…. But I sure think it would be fun to be a fly on the wall and see what gets discussed.

Anyways, I might listen to North Carolina and Notre Dame play as I pretend to work on my bracketology. But since I have a busy day at work tomorrow – and they likely isn’t going to be a lot more eventful basketball tonight, I should at a minimum give the Thursday Viewing Guide!!!!

Thursday is moving day for many of the conferences. Those that have Saturday championships get to see their top seeds open up their Championship Week. But truthfully, the games to tend to watch are those interesting 4 vs 5 matchups. The Big 12 is the perfect example – remember they have 5 teams in the top 13 of the AP Poll. So, we open the day at 11:30 am in the Big 12 tournament with #10 West Virginia (the 4 seed in the Big 12) playing #12 Oklahoma State.

Here are the other games of interest – especially on the bubble:

11:30 am – Big 10 2nd Round – Michigan State (15-11) vs Maryland (15-12). Who would have thought a few weeks ago that the Spartans have more of a chance than the Terrapins to survive a first round loss. Unfortunately, when you close your season out losing to Northwestern and Penn State, you find yourself in a do or die situation. This game really could be an elimination game for the loser.

Noon – ACC Quarterfinals – Virginia (13-4) vs Syracuse (16-8). If Syracuse plays as well as they did today, this should be a fantastic game.

2:30 pm – ACC Quarterfinals – Georgia Tech (15-8) vs Miami FL (10-16). This was a bad break for a bubble team like Georgia Tech. They were expecting Clemson, a team that would be great if they win, but likely wouldn’t hurt your profile if you lose. Instead you get the Hurricanes who know their only chance to keep playing is to keep winning – and a team backed into a corner like that can be a dangerous team – ask Clemson.

3pm – Big East Quarterfinals – St. John’s (16-10) vs. Seton Hall (13-12). Another game that a bubble team like St. John’s might not be able to afford to lose. But Seton Hall certainly is good enough to win this game.

5:30 pm – Pac 12 Quarterfinals – UCLA (17-8) vs Oregon State (14-12). UCLA is like Georgia Tech. They might be able to survive an opening round loss and still make the tournament. But they certainly don’t want to find out.

5:30 pm – Mountain West Quarterfinals – Boise State (18-7) vs Nevada (15-9). Boise State is one of the interesting possible bubble teams from the Mountain West. Nevada is outside the bubble, but obviously at 15-9, they are not a pushover. Should be a good game.

6:30 pm – ACC Quarterfinals – Florida State (15-5) vs Duke (13-11). Can the Blue Devils continue their improbable run to the dance? Can the Seminoles bounce back from their surprising loss to Notre Dame to end the season?

6:30 pm – Big 12 Quarterfinals – #11 Kansas (19-8) vs the winner of the #25 Oklahoma (15-9?) / Iowa State game. OK – this goes off the viewing guide if Iowa State wins their third game of the season tonight. But if everything goes as expected, we have two top 25 teams playing – fun!!!!

6:30 pm – Conference USA Quarterfinals – Western Kentucky (18-6) vs Texas-San Antonio (15-10). This is really a callout to the entire Conference USA tournament. They have 5 teams ranked between 73 and 86 – including Western Kentucky. In other words, 5 teams all evenly matched that could win a conference tournament in a likely single-bid conference. To be honest, some of the other quarterfinals might end up being better – but since the only one that is fully scheduled at this point is this one and it is between two teams with winning records. We will go with it.

7 pm – SEC 2nd Round – Missouri (15-8) vs Georgia (14-11). Missouri looked like they were solidly in – at some point, they were ranked 10th in the country. Then they lost 5 of their last 7 games. And are looking at a Georgia team that knows they have to win the SEC tournament to likely get to the dance. Tough game for a team who desperately needs a win.

9 pm – ACC Quarterfinals – #22 Virginia Tech (15-5) vs the winner of North Carolina / Notre Dame. Quite honestly, the ACC is going to really be a fun tournament. The ACC might not be having a super strong year like normal, but that makes their conference tournament super interesting to watch. Lots of bubble drama – and all the games look like they could be closely matched – you really probably can’t do worse as a basketball fan on Thursday by tuning into the ACC tournament and just watching all 4 games.

9 pm – Big East Quarterfinal – Connecticut (14-6) vs the winner of Providence / DePaul. Connecticut has been super hot – Providence with a win will move to 14-12 and trying to make their way onto the bubble.

9:30 pm – Big 12 Quarterfinal – #13 Texas (17-7) vs #20 – Texas Tech (17-9). OK – I might have spoke too soon on keeping the TV on the ACC Tournament all day. The Big 12 will have three games where both teams are in the top 25 (assuming Oklahoma wins tonight). And the 4th game has #2 Baylor in it. If you want to watch some bubble intrigue with a few top tournament teams mixed in, go to the ACC. But you can watch 7 of 8 teams that all could go deep in the NCAA tournament playing each other on Thursday in the Big 12……

11:30 pm – Pac 12 Quarterfinal – #23 Colorado vs the winner of Stanford / California. If you are still up this late, and looking for something to watch, you must either be on the West Coast or as insane as the Crazed Lunatic. Get your sleep on Thursday night – save sleep deprivation for the tournament. But if you are awake, Colorado is one of the top teams from the Pac 12, and they are one of those teams that most of us on the East Coast never get to watch.

Syracuse started today on the bubble against a North Carolina State team that probably needed a big run to get to the tournament. Syracuse destroyed them – while I haven’t evaluated their profile, they looked like a tournament team today.

Duke also continued their improbable run. They set up the game they needed to tomorrow against second seed Florida State.

Louisville could have used the win today to help their resume – but before you start thinking crazy things like Duke just jumped over Louisville – remember they beat Duke twice in the regular season and have a better record than the Blue Devils. Louisville might be a little more nervous on the bubble, but at this second, they are more worried about other teams on the bubble. Duke still needs to get past Florida State to get back into the discussion (at least in my opinion).

Clemson went from comfortably in to maybe not as comfortably in – losing a close game to Miami FL. And Xavier blew a 19 point lead to watch their bubble get dangerously close to popping by losing to Butler in overtime.

The crazy NET story from the Patriot league is doing just fine – Colgate is up by 31 points against Bucknell – and there is still 16 minutes to play.

So – a little bit of drama in the ACC and Big East. But the big stories are still to come likely tomorrow.

To be honest, Wednesday isn’t the most exciting day for me. I might need to really make some ground on Bracketology. Or maybe I will try to set up my Handicapping blog. Maybe I might even try to sleep early. It might be the last chance for several days.

The reason it isn’t that exciting is because there are no finals. At this point, many of the conferences are starting tournaments that will end on Saturday or Sunday. I know that their fans care – but I can’t get that excited about watching a game like 9-12 Portland St play 5-15 Northern Arizona to kick off the Big Sky tournament. You might say – sure but the major tournaments are starting tomorrow. Great – I get to watch 12-13 TCU play 8-19 Kansas St to kick off the Big 12 tournament. There are a couple bubble teams playing tomorrow – even one ranked team. So, the day isn’t void of interesting games. But in most cases, we are more watching bubble teams to make sure they don’t lose to a team that could knock them off the bubble. The story simply isn’t as interesting to me.

The ACC at least is onto their second round – so they have a couple of interesting games – including what I believe is the game of the day.

6:30 pm EST brings us Louisville vs. Duke – we know that Duke is in desperation mode, but Louisville’s NET ranking does put them on the bubble. Louisville’s resume isn’t as strong as one might think. The only quad 1 victory that Louisville has is their victory at Duke (a team not likely in the field). They are 6-0 against Quad 2 – but of the teams that are legitimately possible tourney teams, they really only have home victories against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. That might be enough – sometimes it is important to simply win the games you are supposed to. But getting a 3rd win against Duke might be just as important to Louisville as the game is for Duke.

Other games that might have some bubble interest:

• Noon EST – ACC 2nd Round – Syracuse (15-8) vs. North Carolina St (13-9) – I find it fascinating how often Syracuse finds their way on the bubble. And watch out if they make the tournament. Syracuse is likely in better shape than NC State – but a run in the ACC Tournament could get them to the dance
• 2:30 EST – ACC 2nd Round – Clemson (16-6) vs Miami FL (9-16). Clemson is likely in the tournament with a 10-6 record in the ACC. So, a chance to watch a possibly tournament team.
• 6 EST – Big East 1st Round – Xavier (13-7) vs Butler (9-14). Xavier is a bubble team who could really use a good run in the Big East tournament. It starts with not getting upset early against Butler.
• 7 EST – Conf USA 2nd Round – Marshall (15-6) vs Rice (14-12). Marshall currently stands at 81st in the NET ranking. They are one of multiple teams that could win the Conf USA tournament – and while I suspect that only one Conf USA team makes it to the dance, that team could be dangerous…..It might be Marshall……
• 7:30 EST – Patriot Semifinal – Colgate (12-1) vs Bucknell (5-6). Because it is the #8 team in the country according to NET. I might need to see for myself what Colgate looks like.
• 9 EST – ACC 2nd Round – North Carolina (16-9) vs Notre Dame (11-14). UNC looks like they are in – and that by itself puts them on the Wednesday viewing list. Add into it Notre Dame, who survived today on a last second three-pointer, following their regular season upset of Florida State. The Irish aren’t getting in without winning the ACC Tournament – but they are not your normal 11-14 team.
• 9:30 EST – Big 12 1st Round – Oklahoma (14-9) vs Iowa State (2-21). OK – this should be a blowout. But Oklahoma is the only ranked team playing on Wednesday.

If you are a fan of the Big 10 or the Pac 12, they play a couple games as well. But truthfully, Wednesday is our final day of calm before the storm. Over half of the AP Top 25 start their Championship Week on Thursday – starting at 11:30 am with #10 West Virginia against #12 Oklahoma State. So, Championship Week will get interesting again quickly……