Stomp The Lunatic

As many of you know, I love to see if I can do better at predicting the bracket with a few days of looking at the data compared to the experts in the media who do this for a living.  One of the comments that always drove me nuts was when these media pundits would say that they got 67 of the 68 teams right – they are so great because they got over 98% of the teams.

But here is the thing – 32 of those teams are given to them – the automatic bids from each conference.  And we haven’t even started talking about the ranked teams – if Virginia wins the ACC, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to guess that Duke and North Carolina are still going to make the tournament.  By the time you remove some of the most obvious answers, you normally are talking about 12 out of 13 – still a good percentage – but doesn’t sound as good as 67 out of 68…….

So, lets start to define the bubble – without looking too hard at team profiles.  We can use history to identify teams that have nothing to worry about.  This will still make the bubble larger than it really is – but this is easy to do without looking too hard.  Lets make a few assumptions:

• Lets assume the committee will use the NET ranking in a similar way that the RPI was used
• I don’t remember any major conference schools with a ranking in the top 30, and any smaller conference schools with a ranking in the top 20 that did not make the tournament.
• It is also extremely rare that a top 25 ranked team doesn’t make the tourney.
• No team outside of the top 80 receives an at-large bid – and typically no small conference outside of the top 50 gets on….
• There are not a lot of teams that make the tournament with 14 or more losses – it happens, but it puts you squarely in the most nervous part of the bubble.
• The committee likes to see teams who have beaten tough teams (their quadrant 1 wins) – you are in a weaker position if you have less than 2 of these wins
• You are not getting in with a losing record as an at-large team.  You might be able to survive a losing record in conference – but overall is a non-starter.

When I apply these rules and add in the conference champions, I have already filled the bracket with 50 teams – leaving my current bubble at 18 teams.  Lets divide the locks a little bit – in order to be able to move the bubble when necessary:

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Already IN (with NET rankings in parentheses) – 9 teams:

Southern – Wofford (13), OVC – Murray St (43), Atlantic Sun – Liberty (59), Colonial – Northeastern (82), Horizon – Northern Kentucky (117), Big South – Gardner-Webb (173), MVC – Bradley (177), MAAC – Iona (203), NEC – Fairleigh Dickinson (215)

Single Bid Conferences (these are conferences with no team in the top 80 remaining) – with the top seed remaining listed – 10 teams:

Summit (3/12 – Omaha vs North Dakota St), Patriot (3/13 – Colgate vs Bucknell), America East (3/16 – Vermont), MEAC (3/16 – Norfolk St), SWAC (3/16 – Prairie View A&M), Big Sky (3/16 – Montana), Conf USA (3/16 – Old Dominion), Southland (3/16 – Sam Houston St), Ivy (3/17 – Harvard), Sun Belt (3/17 – Georgia St)

Major Conference Locks – the assumption is that the Bubble Stays the same size as long as one of these teams wins the tournament – 22 teams

ACC (6) – Virginia (2), Duke (3), UNC (7), Virginia Tech (11), Florida St (19), Louisville (22)

SEC (5) – Kentucky (5), Tennessee (6), LSU (14), Auburn (17), Mississippi State (21)

Big 10 (5) – Michigan State (8), Michigan (10), Purdue (12), Wisconsin (15), Maryland (26)

Big 12 (4) – Texas Tech (9), Kansas (20), Iowa State (23), Kansas State (24)

Big East (2) – Villanova (25), Marquette (29)

Pac 12 (0) – We will get to them later – Not sure what to do with them…….

Smaller Conference Locks – these are the more classic Bid Stealer situations – where one or two teams fit a locked profile – so if they lose in their tournament, the bubble shrinks – 5 teams

American (Houston – 4, Cincinnati – 27), West Coast (Gonzaga – 1), Mountain West (Nevada – 18), MAC (Buffalo – 16)

Bubble Conference Champions – these are conferences where the leader is in between the top 30 and top 80, so if they lose, these teams become part of the bubble pool – 4 teams (with some comments)

Atlantic 10 – VCU (31) – the Rams look like they have a good profile, but being from a smaller conference, it is better for them to not lose their quarterfinal game.

Pac 12 – Washington (38) – This to me is shocking that none of the Pac 12 teams are in the top 30.  I find it hard to believe that Washington would be left out as the regular season champion of a major conference.  But they only have 2 wins against the Quadrant 1 teams with no opportunity to improve upon that in their tournament – which is not the best of the bubble profile positions.  It would make everyone’s lives easier if the Huskies simply win the Pac 12 tournament.

WAC – New Mexico State (46) – New Mexico State has no victories against a Quadrant 1 team.  That is not a good position for a smaller conference bubble team.  Their NET ranking is under 50, so it is worth at least looking at the rest of their profile – but they likely have to win the WAC title.

Big West – UC Irvine (75) – UC Irvine only has one win against a Quadrant 1 team – but with a NET ranking of 75, they are not getting in.  But I feel if they are in the top 80, they deserve to be mentioned on the bubble – even if their only realistic shot is getting the Big West automatic bid.

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So – at this point, the remaining teams in the Top 80 are fighting for 18 spots.  We can now divide the bubble into groups that indicate their risk – realize that this is not an exact ranking – I have only looked at NET ranking, number of quadrant 1 wins (without seeing who those wins are) and number of losses – but it still makes it easier to look at teams when they are in groups.  You also don’t get in simply by being in the first few groups – all these teams have blemishes on their record.

Top 50 Major Conference Teams with Safer Profiles (at least 3 Quadrant 1 wins and less than 13 losses – since if they lose in their tournament and need an at-large bid, they fall into the 14 loss group….) – 6 teams

Mississippi (34), Baylor (36), Oklahoma (40), Iowa (42),  Syracuse (44), TCU (47)

Top 50 Small Conference Teams with Safer Profiles – At least 3 Quadrant 1 wins – 1 team

Utah State (30)

Major Conference Teams That Have at Least 2 Quadrant 1 wins and less than 13 losses –  8 teams

North Carolina State (32), Creighton (54), Minnesota (56), Oregon (61), Seton Hall (62),  St. John’s (66), Arizona State (67), Georgetown (76)

Small Conference Top 50 Teams with 2 Quadrant 1 wins – 4 teams

UCF (28), Belmont (45), Lipscomb (48), Temple (50)

NOTE – That is 19 teams so far in the above groups.  As I said, obviously not all those 19 teams are better than the teams below – but you can start to feel which teams are more nervous…….

Top 50 Teams with only 1 Quadrant 1 Win (mainly small conference teams – with one exception from the ACC) – 3 teams

Clemson (35), St. Mary’s (37), Furman (41).   NOTE: St. Mary’s is up 4 with 12 minutes left on #1 Gonzaga.  If they can hold on, they steal bid by sending Gonzaga to the at-large pool.  Of course, as I type this, St. Mary’s turns the ball over and Gonzaga hits a 3 to cut the lead to 1…..  Sorry, St. Mary’s fans – we know what the Lunatic curse does.

Top 50 Teams With 13 or More Losses – these teams have multiple quality wins, but also have lots of losses – 7 teams

Florida (33), Texas (39), Indiana (51), Ohio State (55), Xavier (70), Providence (74), South Carolina (78)

Two Strikes – Only 2 Quadrant 1 Wins and 13 or More Losses – 2 teams

Nebraska (52), Alabama (57)

Two Slightly Worse Strikes – Only 1 Quadrant 1 Wins and 13 or More Losses – 2 teams

Butler (63), Arkansas (64)

Major Conference Team with No Quadrant 1 Wins – 1 team

Colorado (69) – Not sure how this happens.  Colorado is only 19-11, but because of the weakness of the Pac 12 conference, they are 0-2 against Quadrant 1 teams.  I think Colorado’s only chance to get an at-large bid is to beat Washington in the semi-finals (the only chance for a Quadrant 1 win in the tournament) and then lose to Oregon or Arizona State in the final.  And I suspect that will not be enough.

Small Conference Teams with 1-2 Quadrant 1 Wins but Ranked between 50-80 – These teams rarely get in – but I feel they are in the Top 80 – they deserve their place in the blog. – 4 teams

Memphis (53), UNC Greensboro (58), Dayton (65), Fresno State (79)

Small Conference Teams with No Quadrant 1 Wins – these teams never get in – but as before – they deserve their place in the blog – 5 teams

Toledo (60), Davidson (68), Hofstra (71), East Tennessee State (72), San Francisco (73),

Major Conference Teams with Losing Records – they will not make it – but if I list a major team in the 70s, it seems like we should mention all of them – 3 teams

Penn State (49), Missouri (77), Texas A&M (80) – by the way, this is important to say that the system still has some bugs.  If Minnesota beats Penn State on Thursday in the quater-finals, they will get credited with a Quadrant 1 victory despite the fact that Penn State has no chance whatsoever of making the tournament.  Guess maybe the Nittany Lions fall a couple places – and it turns into a Quadrant 2 game – but still doesn’t feel right.

 

You can safely remove the last 3 groups – so that means 18 spots for 34 teams (generously).  Well, 17 spots for 33 teams – St. Mary’s is up 56-47 on #1 Gonzaga with 50.1 seconds and going to the line!!!!  The #1 team in the country is going to lose and one of the bubble teams in the crazy nervous positions took the decision out of the Selection Committee’s hands and earned the automatic bid.  You have to love March Madness!!!!!!!

AFTER THE FACT NOTE:  Obviously, 2 more bids have been earned as I typed this.  Congratulations to St. Mary’s and North Dakota State (the Summit Conference Champion)

I likely won’t congratulate all the teams that win their Conference Tournaments.  That is because as the week goes on, my focus goes more on my insane attempt at being a brackettologist – and showing that these folks in the media who spend a full season ranking teams might do a good job of seeding teams – but when it comes to figuring out the 68 teams the Selection Commitee will choose, some crazy statistician with a week of gathering data and looking at Team Sheets can do almost as well.

But it is Monday – there are very few games tonight and so was able to watch some of the smaller conference teams play.  And so congratulations to Iona – who has managed to win their 4th straight MAAC Championship – as they ran away from Monmouth in the second half to win 81-60.

Tuesday night will be an exciting night as 5 more conferences (Colonial, Horizon, Northeast, Summit and West Coast) will decide their tournament champions.  Four of these games should be fantastic from the perspective of this is it for these teams – they might have been champions, co-champs or runner-ups in their conference regular season, but if they want to make the NCAA Tournament, they need to win tomorrow night.

Of course, the West Coast final will feature the #1 team in the country – Gonzaga.  And so obviously, if tonight’s late semi-final game winner between St. Mary’s and San Diego can pull the ultimate upset, the Bubble will remain safe from any bid-stealers.  Before you think that happens, lets just remember that the Zags have won their last 21 games by double digits (including all their games against West Coast Conference schools).  In fact, the Zags have won by 20 or more points in 15 of those 21 games.  That is right – if Gonzaga had spotted their opponents 19 points before the game started, they would still be 15-6 since their last loss to North Carolina.

While it is fun watching upsets – that is what March is all about – I suspect that the West Coast Championship in Las Vegas is not going to be where that will happen.  Maybe St. Mary’s or San Diego will prove me wrong…….

Well, it is ready through Sunday’s March 10th games!   For the most part, the file is the same as normal.   I have continued with the approach that conference tournament game are counted as conference games instead of post-season games.  There is one additional data point – while I have not calculated it, I used the NCAA’s new NET rankings to validate the records (since it lists the official neutral game records).  And since I had the new ranking on the file, I added it to the standings file.

I have also added two PDF files – for those of you who would like to see what some of the data sheets that the Selection Committee gets when making their decisions.  Fortunately for all of us, the NCAA puts their Team Sheets (which breaks each teams schedule into different rankings quadrants) and NET Nitty Gritty summary files on their RPI Archives Page – and so I have copied them and loaded them to the Research tab along with the Schedule 2019 Excel document.

No promises that I will update these three files every day, but wanted to make this available for everyone – and will update as I have time throughout the week – the spreadsheet has a page that says when it is last updated.

For those of you who want to do crazy statistical research, build models, or just have all the schedule data at your fingertips to evaluate teams, the data is there in the research links under Schedule 2019.

Obviously, remember the traditional Lunatic disclaimers.  I have done some basic cleaning and quality checks that the records from the schedule I have match the official NCAA site – but there are a lot of games, and so I will not make the claim that I have checked every piece of the dataset.  More importantly, because of multiple changes to the NCAA’s website (and my ramblings last week of difficulties pulling this data due to blanks in the box scores), there are potential issues to be checked.  For example, I have noticed that some of the home sites seem to be attendance figures due to missing information on the box score summary.  I suspect the scores are right since the complete records are correct.  But take the data with a grain of salt.

That being said, one really interesting thing that this file does create is a side-by-side comparison of the old RPI calculation (which my tool still calculates – as does some other webpages) vs. the new NET model that the Selection Committee is using to rank games into the quadrants.  I will probably have to ramble about it – but lets just say that from a quick glance, North Carolina State and Indiana are thanking their lucky stars that the NCAA has moved to the NET score, and Arizona State, Seton Hall and Temple might be eventually wishing that the RPI was still the NCAA’s ranking system.

For those of you who are not familiar with this tradition of me doing insane data pulls to grab all this great college basketball data, I will give you some more details.

As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I pick Purdue to go far and just randomly pick the other games late Wednesday evening.

However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort.

If you notice something terribly wrong, let me know – no promises I have time to fix it, but at least everyone will know.

Enjoy the data!!!!

Monday of Championship Week is typically a showcase for the mid-major conferences.  None of the major conference championships start until Tuesday and Wednesday.  And so all the games are from the smaller conference – including the championship finals of the Southern and MAAC Conferences.

The Southern Conference Championship was of particular interest this year, because it is very rare when you see a ranked team from the Southern Conference.  But that is what Wofford was tonight – as they brought their 20th ranking in the AP poll and 28-4 record to Asheville, NC to play against 2nd seed UNC-Greensboro, who was no slouch at 28-5.

And with 5 minutes and 41 seconds left in the game, UNC-Greensboro led 55-50.  And every team on the bubble’s worse nightmare was starting to become a potential reality – that the 20th ranked Wofford Terriers who have a NCAA NET ranking of 14th would need an at-large bid to get into a tournament – one the Selection Committee most likely would have given.

Then, for the next 4 1/2 minutes, the Terriers went on a 16-0 run, going on to win the Southern Conference Championship 70-58 and ending UNC-Greensboro’s upset bid.  The Spartans now have to hope that their 28-6 record, a close game against Wofford (well – close if you actually watched the game, it is unusual that a team leads for most of the game and ends up losing by 12) and NET ranking of 58th and their close 6 point loss at LSU in November will be enough to get in the tournament.  Unfortunately for the Spartans, if the Selection Committee does what it normally does, that will not likely be enough – which is why the rest of the Bubble was hyper-ventilating for 35 minutes and can suddenly catch their breath.

Wofford is the Southern Conference Champions and will be heading to the Big Dance.  And there will be one more team from the bubble making their way into the tournament because the Terriers had an amazing final 5 minutes to save their undefeated conference record and gain the automatic bid.  Congratulations to the Wofford Terriers!

It is that time – the Lunatic is ranting in full force – and so it must be time to Stomp the Lunatic!!!!!!

My goal is to get the box scores loaded onto the site over the next few days (sorry, I was actually enjoying the games too much to format the files that I have pulled down – but it looks like I solved my box score problem and have all the games through Saturday, March 9th) – will hopefully get those up tomorrow or Tuesday for those who want to start building their models or digging through the data.

But the 2019 Stomp The Lunatic Contest has officially been announced – so for the next week, enjoy my ranting about the conference tournaments (and anything else going on that I want to ramble about on college basketball).  And get ready to STOMP THE LUNATIC!!!!!

Congratulations to Gardner-Webb, Liberty and Bradley – as they will be dancing in the NCAA Tournament.   Gardner-Webb jumped out to a fast start and never looked back to win the Big South Championship.   Liberty kept playing strong in a physical game against Lipscomb – but managed to hit a key three pointer with 11 seconds to claim the Atlantic Sun Championship.  And then, there was Bradley, who came back from being down 18 points to stun Northern Iowa and take the Missouri Valley Championship.

You have to really have a little bit of pity for a mid-major regular season champion.  Because in the cruel world of March supremacy – for these teams, it only matters what you do in 3 games in March – if you are lucky enough to get that far.

Saturday was the perfect example.  In the Missouri Valley conference, last year’s final four darling Loyola-Chicago found themselves the #1 seed in the conference tournament semi-finals.  But #5 seed Bradley did not care about the fact that the Ramblers were going to try to repeat their magical run.  The Braves’ Nate Kannell hit a three pointer to put Bradley up 53-51, and unlike last March, Loyola-Chicago could not hit the three pointer before the buzzer.  So, Bradley advances to the tourney final and Loyola-Chicago will have to bring their act to the NIT.

Of course, the Missouri Valley was ultra-cruel.  That is because #2 seed Drake was actually the regular-season co-champions with the Ramblers.  With the bracket opened up, Drake found themselves in a tight game with #6 seed Northern Iowa.  And after Drake’s Tremell Murphy hit a layup to tie the game at 58 with 8 seconds left, the Panther’s Wyatt Lohaus hit a layup before the buzzer to give Northern Iowa the 2 point victory.

The Summit conference also watched their top seed go down as South Dakota State was upset in the quarterfinals by Western Illinois 79-76.  And so the 24-8 team heads to the NIT and the 10-20 team advances.

If Duke and Virginia play each other for the ACC Tournament Championship next weekend, both teams – win or lose – might still be #1 seeds when the Selection Committee announces the tournament brackets.  But today, in the Atlantic Sun, if top seed Lipscomb (who is 25-6 and won at TCU earlier this season and only lost by 4 at Louisville) loses to second seed and regular-season co-champ Liberty (who is 27-6 but doesn’t have as good of a non-conference profile as Lipscomb), they will be hoping that the Selection Committee gives them a chance as one of the last teams in – while they know they will likely be heading to the NIT.

It is the cruel world that a mid-major champion lives in.  If you are in the ACC or Big 10, or Big 12 or SEC, you can lose in your conference tournament, and it is viewed as you ran up against a desparate bubble team who upset you in a crazy tough conference.  But in a mid-major conference, you are expected to win your tournament – you are not often afforded a second chance – even if your loss is to a 27-6 team.

So, enjoy the mid-major tournaments – these teams are much better than everyone realizes, and there is some really good basketball that is being played when you get two good teams on the court and both of them realize that this might be the last 40 minutes of their season.

 

The Ohio Valley Conference championship has been decided – by the OVC’s biggest star.  Murray State finished off Belmont 77-65 as Ja Morant scored 36 points to lead the Racers to the tournament.

It has been a great day of basketball – watching Virginia come back to beat Louisville and take a share of the ACC.  Watching North Carolina come out a couple down at halftime and take a big lead before holding off one last Duke run to win the other share of the ACC.  Michigan State came back from down 9 to knock off Michigan and win a share of the Big 10 championship.

And while those games are all big – and matter a lot in the seeding of the top teams, there is only one game tonight that ensured a team a ticket to the dance – and that ticket belongs to the Ohio Valley Champions – the Murray State Racers!

Congratulations to my Purdue Boilermakers of being one of the two 2019 Big 10 regular season co-champions!!!!!  It wasn’t always pretty, but Purdue managed to stop a few Wildcat runs in the second half and won at Northwestern 70-57.

The Boilermakers have now won 24 Big 10 regular season championships, the most of any of the Big 10 teams!!!!

The BTN staff mentioned something that might make this even more incredible.  They mentioned that this team has managed to win the Big 10 championship with no recruits who were ranked higher than 60th.  These players understand their roles and play hard, and that effort and the development that they have shown under Matt Painter is a great success story that you can win in college basketball without needing to get 1-and-done stars.

Great job Boilermakers!!!!!!!   BOILER UP!!!!!!!

If today doesn’t get you excited about March Madness, you are probably not a college basketball fan.  Just think about this list of games:

• The Ohio Valley Conference will become the first team to officially send a team to the tournament tonight at 8 pm – their conference championship game should be fantastic – it is Belmont (26-4) vs. Murray St (26-4).  Both teams are very talented, and both probably deserve to be in the Tournament.  But when you are from the Ohio Valley Conference, it is wise to win the automatic bid.
• Obviously the game I am most interested in – Purdue is at Northwestern – if the Boilermakers win, they win a share of the Big 10 championship.  Then, tonight Michigan and Michigan State play to decide the rest of the title.
• In the ACC, Virginia will try to wrap up a share of the conference championship if they can win at home against Louisville
• In the Big 12, Texas Tech plays at Iowa State and Kansas State hosts Oklahoma – if both win, they will share the Big 12 championship.
• In the Big East, Villanova can claim the title outright if they win on the road at Seton Hall (who is playing to try to stay on the bubble).  If they lose, Marquette can share the title if the beat Georgetown (who is also on the bubble).
• In the SEC, Tennesse can claim a share of the title if they beat Auburn.  LSU also could claim a share of the title against Vanderbilt.

And we haven’t even talked about all the bubble teams trying to get one more win and be in a safer position before the major conference tournaments start.

Oh – and of course, there is that game at 6 pm – as #3 North Carolina hosts #4 Duke – as the Tar Heels have a chance to win a share of the ACC championship, and Duke tries to get revenge for the loss in Durham and show that they still are the team deserving a #1 seed in the tournament.  Of course, there is the drama surrounding if Zion Williamson will play tonight – as he recovers from a knee injury suffered in the first meeting between these two powerhouses.

Final weekend of the major conferences regular season.  Many of the smaller conferences are playing their conference tournaments.  Bubble games all over the place.  And Duke / UNC.   It must be March!!!!!  Enjoy the games!