This will be short – because it is easy. Everything.

The Big East is playing its semi-finals – which will have Seton Hall playing Georgetown to see who gets a chance to crash the dance. And Creighton will play the winner of UConn and DePaul to see who gets to try to stop them.

The Big 12 is playing its semi-finals – kicking off with #2 Baylor vs #12 Oklahoma State with #11 Kansas waiting for the winner of #13 Texas and #20 Texas Tech

The ACC is playing its semi-finals – cant go wrong with Virgina going against Georgia Tech and Florida State waiting for the winner of Virginia Tech vs North Carolina.

The Big 10 quarterfinals are stacked – starting off with #9 Ohio State vs #20 Purdue. Then, you have #4 Michigan vs Maryland, #3 Illinois vs Rutgers, and #5 Iowa vs the Wisconsin / Penn State winner.

The SEC quarterfinals are #6 Alabama vs Mississippi State, Tennessee vs Florida, #8 Arkansas vs Missouri and LSU waiting for the Ole Miss / South Carolina team.

The Pac 12 semi-finals will be late on Friday – with Oregon playing Oregon St, and the other semi-final waiting for the winners of the USC/Utah and the Colorado/California quarters tonight.

Every single one of those games involves someone who is a lock for the tournament or someone who is on the bubble – well, unless Utah and California both pull off upsets tonight. Many of those games will likely involve two tournament teams by the time the Selection Committee announces the bracket on Sunday.

Oh – and lets not forget that the American conference quarterfinals and Mountain West conference semi-finals – both full of mid-major teams on the bubble will be playing as well.

No matter what game you turn on, it is likely going to be good. The only way to go wrong is not to watch any of them. So, enjoy what should be an amazing day of basketball – hopefully it will be as good as Thursday is – well, as long as the games all decide themselves on the court. Don’t want to see any more announcements of teams having to end their season due to quarantine.

You know you are going to have a wild day when the day starts with a new twist in one of the biggest sagas for the week. Everyone is aware of the fact that Duke looked like they would miss the tournament for the first time in a long time as they struggled to an 11-11 record. Knowing they needed a big run in the ACC Tournament, it looked like they were going to try to make that run – as they took down Boston College and Louisville to set up the showdown we were looking forward to against Florida State. And then the announcement.

Duke has a positive test for Covid-19, all their players are going into quarantine, and the AD has announced that the Blue Devil’s season is over. Before the games even started, the media was going crazy. Then, the games start.

Michigan State after all the good will they made from their late season run started off against Maryland early with a 12 point lead, and then apparently forgot how to shoot. At one point, Maryland had built out a 19 point lead – eventually taking out the Spartans 68-57.

Virginia ended Syracuse’s ACC Tournament with a three pointer at the buzzer.

Kentucky’s nightmare of a season was ended when Missisippi State hit two FTs to take the lead and Kentucky’s last second three-pointer didn’t go in.

The Big East tournament has lost their top seed, as injured Villanova fell by one point to Georgetown. And we couldn’t figure out if the bigger piece of news. Was it that the Hoyas have now made the Big East tournament ripe for being a bid-stealer league as Creighton is the only locked team remaining of the final 6 teams (to be fair, UConn is playing well and might be in as well). Or was it the fact that Georgetown coach Patrick Ewing revealed that he was being accosted in Madison Square Garden by security asking the famous New York Knick for his credential passes – how could they not know that it was the Hall of Famer who has his jersey retired in the rafters.

Not sure that the evening can match the drama of the afternoon. But the afternoon surely delivered.

I should be working on my bracketology page. I keep telling myself that I should try to build a model to predict who the Selection Committee will take based on 2019’s tournament. I then realize that I have tried to do that in the past and it never ended well. At a minimum, I should be looking at resumes of bubble teams. Does Xavier’s loss knock them out? Does Syracuse’s win get them in? I think the answer to both of those questions are yes – but it is really anyone’s guess at the moment. Only the Selection Committee really knows for sure – and they are not talking to anyone (well – at least I think they are not. Maybe that is how Lunardi and Palm do so well each year – maybe they get to talk to the committee…..)

That is not completely fair – I don’t know what access the journalists (or bracketologists) get to the Selection Committee…. But I sure think it would be fun to be a fly on the wall and see what gets discussed.

Anyways, I might listen to North Carolina and Notre Dame play as I pretend to work on my bracketology. But since I have a busy day at work tomorrow – and they likely isn’t going to be a lot more eventful basketball tonight, I should at a minimum give the Thursday Viewing Guide!!!!

Thursday is moving day for many of the conferences. Those that have Saturday championships get to see their top seeds open up their Championship Week. But truthfully, the games to tend to watch are those interesting 4 vs 5 matchups. The Big 12 is the perfect example – remember they have 5 teams in the top 13 of the AP Poll. So, we open the day at 11:30 am in the Big 12 tournament with #10 West Virginia (the 4 seed in the Big 12) playing #12 Oklahoma State.

Here are the other games of interest – especially on the bubble:

11:30 am – Big 10 2nd Round – Michigan State (15-11) vs Maryland (15-12). Who would have thought a few weeks ago that the Spartans have more of a chance than the Terrapins to survive a first round loss. Unfortunately, when you close your season out losing to Northwestern and Penn State, you find yourself in a do or die situation. This game really could be an elimination game for the loser.

Noon – ACC Quarterfinals – Virginia (13-4) vs Syracuse (16-8). If Syracuse plays as well as they did today, this should be a fantastic game.

2:30 pm – ACC Quarterfinals – Georgia Tech (15-8) vs Miami FL (10-16). This was a bad break for a bubble team like Georgia Tech. They were expecting Clemson, a team that would be great if they win, but likely wouldn’t hurt your profile if you lose. Instead you get the Hurricanes who know their only chance to keep playing is to keep winning – and a team backed into a corner like that can be a dangerous team – ask Clemson.

3pm – Big East Quarterfinals – St. John’s (16-10) vs. Seton Hall (13-12). Another game that a bubble team like St. John’s might not be able to afford to lose. But Seton Hall certainly is good enough to win this game.

5:30 pm – Pac 12 Quarterfinals – UCLA (17-8) vs Oregon State (14-12). UCLA is like Georgia Tech. They might be able to survive an opening round loss and still make the tournament. But they certainly don’t want to find out.

5:30 pm – Mountain West Quarterfinals – Boise State (18-7) vs Nevada (15-9). Boise State is one of the interesting possible bubble teams from the Mountain West. Nevada is outside the bubble, but obviously at 15-9, they are not a pushover. Should be a good game.

6:30 pm – ACC Quarterfinals – Florida State (15-5) vs Duke (13-11). Can the Blue Devils continue their improbable run to the dance? Can the Seminoles bounce back from their surprising loss to Notre Dame to end the season?

6:30 pm – Big 12 Quarterfinals – #11 Kansas (19-8) vs the winner of the #25 Oklahoma (15-9?) / Iowa State game. OK – this goes off the viewing guide if Iowa State wins their third game of the season tonight. But if everything goes as expected, we have two top 25 teams playing – fun!!!!

6:30 pm – Conference USA Quarterfinals – Western Kentucky (18-6) vs Texas-San Antonio (15-10). This is really a callout to the entire Conference USA tournament. They have 5 teams ranked between 73 and 86 – including Western Kentucky. In other words, 5 teams all evenly matched that could win a conference tournament in a likely single-bid conference. To be honest, some of the other quarterfinals might end up being better – but since the only one that is fully scheduled at this point is this one and it is between two teams with winning records. We will go with it.

7 pm – SEC 2nd Round – Missouri (15-8) vs Georgia (14-11). Missouri looked like they were solidly in – at some point, they were ranked 10th in the country. Then they lost 5 of their last 7 games. And are looking at a Georgia team that knows they have to win the SEC tournament to likely get to the dance. Tough game for a team who desperately needs a win.

9 pm – ACC Quarterfinals – #22 Virginia Tech (15-5) vs the winner of North Carolina / Notre Dame. Quite honestly, the ACC is going to really be a fun tournament. The ACC might not be having a super strong year like normal, but that makes their conference tournament super interesting to watch. Lots of bubble drama – and all the games look like they could be closely matched – you really probably can’t do worse as a basketball fan on Thursday by tuning into the ACC tournament and just watching all 4 games.

9 pm – Big East Quarterfinal – Connecticut (14-6) vs the winner of Providence / DePaul. Connecticut has been super hot – Providence with a win will move to 14-12 and trying to make their way onto the bubble.

9:30 pm – Big 12 Quarterfinal – #13 Texas (17-7) vs #20 – Texas Tech (17-9). OK – I might have spoke too soon on keeping the TV on the ACC Tournament all day. The Big 12 will have three games where both teams are in the top 25 (assuming Oklahoma wins tonight). And the 4th game has #2 Baylor in it. If you want to watch some bubble intrigue with a few top tournament teams mixed in, go to the ACC. But you can watch 7 of 8 teams that all could go deep in the NCAA tournament playing each other on Thursday in the Big 12……

11:30 pm – Pac 12 Quarterfinal – #23 Colorado vs the winner of Stanford / California. If you are still up this late, and looking for something to watch, you must either be on the West Coast or as insane as the Crazed Lunatic. Get your sleep on Thursday night – save sleep deprivation for the tournament. But if you are awake, Colorado is one of the top teams from the Pac 12, and they are one of those teams that most of us on the East Coast never get to watch.

Syracuse started today on the bubble against a North Carolina State team that probably needed a big run to get to the tournament. Syracuse destroyed them – while I haven’t evaluated their profile, they looked like a tournament team today.

Duke also continued their improbable run. They set up the game they needed to tomorrow against second seed Florida State.

Louisville could have used the win today to help their resume – but before you start thinking crazy things like Duke just jumped over Louisville – remember they beat Duke twice in the regular season and have a better record than the Blue Devils. Louisville might be a little more nervous on the bubble, but at this second, they are more worried about other teams on the bubble. Duke still needs to get past Florida State to get back into the discussion (at least in my opinion).

Clemson went from comfortably in to maybe not as comfortably in – losing a close game to Miami FL. And Xavier blew a 19 point lead to watch their bubble get dangerously close to popping by losing to Butler in overtime.

The crazy NET story from the Patriot league is doing just fine – Colgate is up by 31 points against Bucknell – and there is still 16 minutes to play.

So – a little bit of drama in the ACC and Big East. But the big stories are still to come likely tomorrow.

To be honest, Wednesday isn’t the most exciting day for me. I might need to really make some ground on Bracketology. Or maybe I will try to set up my Handicapping blog. Maybe I might even try to sleep early. It might be the last chance for several days.

The reason it isn’t that exciting is because there are no finals. At this point, many of the conferences are starting tournaments that will end on Saturday or Sunday. I know that their fans care – but I can’t get that excited about watching a game like 9-12 Portland St play 5-15 Northern Arizona to kick off the Big Sky tournament. You might say – sure but the major tournaments are starting tomorrow. Great – I get to watch 12-13 TCU play 8-19 Kansas St to kick off the Big 12 tournament. There are a couple bubble teams playing tomorrow – even one ranked team. So, the day isn’t void of interesting games. But in most cases, we are more watching bubble teams to make sure they don’t lose to a team that could knock them off the bubble. The story simply isn’t as interesting to me.

The ACC at least is onto their second round – so they have a couple of interesting games – including what I believe is the game of the day.

6:30 pm EST brings us Louisville vs. Duke – we know that Duke is in desperation mode, but Louisville’s NET ranking does put them on the bubble. Louisville’s resume isn’t as strong as one might think. The only quad 1 victory that Louisville has is their victory at Duke (a team not likely in the field). They are 6-0 against Quad 2 – but of the teams that are legitimately possible tourney teams, they really only have home victories against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. That might be enough – sometimes it is important to simply win the games you are supposed to. But getting a 3rd win against Duke might be just as important to Louisville as the game is for Duke.

Other games that might have some bubble interest:

• Noon EST – ACC 2nd Round – Syracuse (15-8) vs. North Carolina St (13-9) – I find it fascinating how often Syracuse finds their way on the bubble. And watch out if they make the tournament. Syracuse is likely in better shape than NC State – but a run in the ACC Tournament could get them to the dance
• 2:30 EST – ACC 2nd Round – Clemson (16-6) vs Miami FL (9-16). Clemson is likely in the tournament with a 10-6 record in the ACC. So, a chance to watch a possibly tournament team.
• 6 EST – Big East 1st Round – Xavier (13-7) vs Butler (9-14). Xavier is a bubble team who could really use a good run in the Big East tournament. It starts with not getting upset early against Butler.
• 7 EST – Conf USA 2nd Round – Marshall (15-6) vs Rice (14-12). Marshall currently stands at 81st in the NET ranking. They are one of multiple teams that could win the Conf USA tournament – and while I suspect that only one Conf USA team makes it to the dance, that team could be dangerous…..It might be Marshall……
• 7:30 EST – Patriot Semifinal – Colgate (12-1) vs Bucknell (5-6). Because it is the #8 team in the country according to NET. I might need to see for myself what Colgate looks like.
• 9 EST – ACC 2nd Round – North Carolina (16-9) vs Notre Dame (11-14). UNC looks like they are in – and that by itself puts them on the Wednesday viewing list. Add into it Notre Dame, who survived today on a last second three-pointer, following their regular season upset of Florida State. The Irish aren’t getting in without winning the ACC Tournament – but they are not your normal 11-14 team.
• 9:30 EST – Big 12 1st Round – Oklahoma (14-9) vs Iowa State (2-21). OK – this should be a blowout. But Oklahoma is the only ranked team playing on Wednesday.

If you are a fan of the Big 10 or the Pac 12, they play a couple games as well. But truthfully, Wednesday is our final day of calm before the storm. Over half of the AP Top 25 start their Championship Week on Thursday – starting at 11:30 am with #10 West Virginia against #12 Oklahoma State. So, Championship Week will get interesting again quickly……

I keep debating structure for the blog. Last night, I had so much fun doing a breakdown of the bubble – then I woke up this morning and realized that should have probably been in my bracketology blog. With the changes in service that I had on my website provider, I made the realization that instead of loading pages for my bracketology and handicapping pages and constantly uploading them, I could simply use WordPress to create a new blog – easier to update, always available, etc. Just one problem – I came up with the idea last weekend which doesn’t leave a lot of time for making pretty or organizing what content goes where.

Sleep deprived lunatic with multiple blogs at his fingertips – what can go wrong with that.

Anyways, lets look at today’s Lunatic viewing guide. If you are lucky enough to watch TV during the afternoon, the ACC has your sole and undivided attention. The one that will have everyone’s attention is at 4:30 pm EST as Duke starts their last charge for the dance against Boston College. At 11-11, the Blue Devils probably have to at least win 3 games in Greensboro to make a last ditch effort. As I said before, I can’t see a 13-12 team making the tournament, even if they have the name Duke across their jerseys.

There are other small conference tournaments starting this late afternoon and evening, but everyone’s attention really should be on the finals – as 5 teams will punch their ticket to the dance. The premier game of the day is in Las Vegas in the West Coast Conference at 9 pm EST. In the middle of the night for us on the East Coast, BYU survived a scare from Pepperdine in overtime, creating the matchup everyone wanted to see from the WCC. The #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs will try to go into the tournament undefeated, with the BYU Cougars trying to pull the major upset.

But there are 4 other championships to be played – hope they are as good as Monday night.

• Colonial (7 pm EST) – #6 Drexel (11-7) vs #8 Elon (10-8)
• Northeast (7 pm EST) – #2 Bryant (15-5) vs #4 Mount St Mary’s (11-10)
• Horizon (7 pm EST) – #1 Cleveland State (18-7) vs #3 Oakland (12-17)
• Summit (9 pm EST) – #3 North Dakota State (15-11) vs #4 Oral Roberts (15-10)

Enjoy the conference tournament games tonight – tomorrow begins some of the bubble activity as first round games of some of the major conferences begin.

Its late, but bracketology is on a roll – why not do one last quick categorization. There are a few other things that we can look through that can order the teams without looking at anything but the Nitty Gritty summary.

• Based on my memory – the worst record to make the tournament is the 16-14 Georgia team from 2001.
• Teams don’t tend to get an at-large bid if they don’t have a Quad 1 victory. Sometimes the committee will look past it if they have a ton of Quad 2 wins – but at the end of the day, the committee selections teams that have beaten other teams in the bracket.
• If you are not in the top 6 conferences (Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big East and Pac 12), you better be in the top 50 of the NET. Not saying it doesn’t happen – but a mid-major team has few chances to get Quad 1 wins to begin with – it helps to be looked at with the teams in the top 30-50.

The Bubble Crashers – these are the teams that are outside of the top 80, but could come crashing into the rankings if the make it to their tournament championship (probably taking out a top 10 team along the way). You can only be in this group if you are in a major conference. Sure – Marshall might jump into the top 80 if they make it to the Conf USA final. But they still have no chance for a Quad 1 victory to grab the committee’s attention. This also doesn’t include a team like Notre Dame – at 10-14, they could win the ACC tournament and still have a worse record than Georgia did in 2001. They don’t need the at-large bid if they win 5 games in the tournament, and they don’t have a .500 record without those 5 wins. We won’t really look at these teams unless they go on a streak – if they are still playing on Saturday or Sunday, we will have to re-evaluate them

• Marquette (87) – 13-13
• Pitt (92) – 10-11
• Georgia (94) – 14-11

Already out due to losing record or ineligible – these teams have a losing record going into the tournament. They are in the top 80 of the rankings, but they are out barring winning their tournament.

• Penn State (40) – 10-13
• Arizona (46) – 17-9 but ineligible
• Kentucky (59) – 9-15
• Indiana (61) – 12-14
• Auburn (69) – 13-14 and ineligible
• Minnesota (79) – 13-14

No wins against Quad 1 teams – the two American teams might still get another chance at Houston. The other two have their season over with so are likely done.

• Memphis (52) – American (15-7)
• SMU (56) – American (11-4)
• Davidson (62) – Atlantic 10 (13-8)
• St. Marys CA (64) – WCC (14-8)

Mid-major outside the top 60 – only one team in this bucket has a chance – but it is hard to tell. That is Wichita State – they still have the American in front of them. But they also have the interesting fact that they are the American’s regular season champion – one would think it was 7th ranked Houston, but Houston actually fell behind Wichita State by conference winning percentage.

• Wichita State (65) – American (15-4)
• Richmond (70) – Atlantic 10 (13-8)
• Dayton (80) – Atlantic 10 (14-9)

Better win 2 or 3 games this week – these teams have records that are between .500 and 2 games above .500. Remember that Georgia team was 2 games above .500. I don’t suspect that a 13-12 team makes it.

• Seton Hall (58) – Big East (13-12)
• Duke (60) – ACC (11-11)
• Stanford (71) – Pac 12 (14-12)
• Providence (77) – Big East (13-12)
• Mississippi State (78) – SEC (14-13)

Have No Clue How to Handle – this just shows how confusing this is. Colgate has a NET ranking of 8!!!!! If they seed simply on the ranking, they are a #2 seed!!!!! I can’t believe that they are an at-large candidate, but how can I take them off the bubble. I really hope they win the Patriot.

Outside the top 50 – some of these teams are surprising that they are here (Louisville), some of them have some of the best wins on the bubble (Michigan St), but regardless, I am categorizing without deep diving into schedules

• Louisville (51) – ACC (13-6)
• Mississippi (53) – SEC (15-10)
• Xavier (57) – Big East (13-7)
• North Carolina State (66) – ACC (13-9)
• Michigan State (67) – Big 10 (15-11)
• St. John’s (68) – Big East (16-10)

Remaining Mid-Major Teams – these teams have had great seasons. But they are in the mid-major conferences. And I have seen too many top mid-major teams not get into the tournament due to not enough quality wins. I think it is a shame – and this is probably the type of season to give the mid-majors more chances. But they are on the bubble because history has not been kind to this group.

• Boise State (43) – Mountain West (18-7)
• St. Louis (44) – Atlantic 10 (14-6)
• Drake (47) – Missouri Valley (25-4)
• Utah State (48) – Mountain West (18-7)
• Colorado State (50) – Mountain West (17-5)

Remaining Major Teams – this is the largest group – not all of these teams are ranked equally. But they might be some of the safest teams on the bubble from a history perspective.

• Connecticut (31) – Big East (14-6)
• Maryland (34) – Big 10 (15-12)
• Clemson (36) – ACC (16-6)
• Rutgers (37) – Big 10 (14-10)
• Georgia Tech (38) – ACC (15-8)
• North Carolina (39) – ACC (16-9)
• UCLA (41) – Pac 12 (17-8)
• Missouri (45) – SEC (15-8)
• Syracuse (49) – ACC (15-8)

Loser of the Atlantic 10 championship – St. Bonaventure is 15-4 and ranked 27th. VCU is 19-6 and ranked 35th. They were the top 2 teams in the regular season, and they survived to make it to the tournament final. They also play the championship on Sunday. Remember, Selection Sunday is money to the NCAA. Their game will finish approximately 3 hours before the bracket is released. It is possible they could simply have both in already. But if VCU is on the outside of the bracket and they win on their home court on Sunday, would the committee simply put them in the spot they placed St. Bonaventure so that they can get a bracket out the door. I have heard stories of contingency brackets so that they can move from bracket to bracket based on the results of the championships on Sunday – but I am obviously not in the room… Who knows what will be going through the mind of the Selection Committee at 3 pm EST. If I had to go based on my initial gut instinct, I think both teams are in.

So – there you go. 16 spots for 40 teams if we include the bubble crashers and remove the two ineligible teams. But the reality is that I think the teams really looking at this are the last 4 categories. Those 21 teams really have the best chances at the 16 remaining spots…..

As we said in the last post, there are really likely 60 teams playing for 37 at-large spots. But we would like to know what teams are likely locks into the tournament, and which are really still on the bubble.

And we want to do it quickly – I don’t want to pour over schedules just yet. I simply want to start to define groupings. So, lets establish our locks.

Lets first make an assumption – remember we really have 70 teams and 47 spots – there are 11 potential multi-bid conferences (and one is decided). For right now, lets place the highest ranked NET team in these spots (partly out of laziness so that I don’t have to look up conference standings) – we will list the one team who has actually punched their ticket first..

• Missouri Valley – Loyola – Chicago (10)
• WCC – Gonzaga (1)
• Big 12 – Baylor (2)
• Big 10 – Michigan (3)
• American – Houston (5)
• SEC – Alabama (7)
• Big East – Villanova (11)
• Pac 12 – Colorado (12)
• ACC – Virginia (13)
• Mountain West – San Diego State (21)
• Atlantic 10 – St Bonaventure (27)

Next, there are only two ranked teams that I remember that have missed the NCAA tournament (2014 – SMU and 2004 – Utah State). My memory is not always perfect – I wouldn’t be surprised if I missed someone (probably recent). Considering both of these teams are from smaller conferences, and the bottom of the current top 25 polls are from the major 6 conferences, I think you can safely lock the teams in this weeks poll.

You also have to remember the NET / RPI rankings. There has never been a top 30 RPI / NET school from a major 6 conference that has missed the tournament – and the best ranked team to miss the tournament was #21 Missouri State in 2006. I’ve mentioned Colgate’s weird situation a couple times – so they get left out of this conversation. This will give you the following locks:

• Illinois – Big 10 (4 – AP #3)
• Iowa – Big 10 (6 – AP #5)
• Ohio St – Big 10 (9 – AP #9)
• Kansas – Big 12 (14 – AP #11)
• USC – Pac 12 (15 – AP #24)
• Arkansas – SEC (16 – AP #8)
• Texas Tech – Big 12 (17 – AP #20)
• Tennessee – SEC (18)
• BYU – WCC (19)
• Purdue – Big 10 (20 – AP #21)
• Florida State – ACC (22 – AP #15)
• West Virginia – Big 12 (23 – AP #10)
• Texas – Big 12 (24 – AP #13)
• Creighton – Big East (25 – AP #17)
• Wisconsin – Big 10 (26)
• LSU – SEC (28)
• Florida – SEC (29)
• Oklahoma State – Big 12 (30 – AP #12)
• Oregon – Pac 12 (32 – Coaches #25)
• Oklahoma – Big 12 (33 – AP #25)
• Virginia Tech – ACC (42 – AP #22)

So – very quickly, without looking at schedules and simply trusting the rankings, you can lock in 21 teams. Sure – it is always possible for teams to shift. It would likely be a good thing for Wisconsin, LSU and Florida to win their first tournament game so they stay in the top 30. But I would likely believe that they are OK – remember, not only would they have to drop because of the loss, but 16 more teams have to pass them. A loss might push them back – but probably not far enough out of the tournament.

That leaves 16 spots for the remaining 39 teams. There are two teams that are not as safe – because they are our place-holders.

First, there is San Diego State – our Mountain West “champion”. They are likely safe. They currently are at 21st (that magical number that only Missouri State didn’t survive). They are also 19th in the polls, which adds another level of safety. The part that is scary is that they are 0-3 in their Quad 1 games. They are 6-1 against Quad 2 – so the committee might look past the gap, but they join Colgate as the only team in the NET top 50 without a Quad 1 victory. The good news is that if the NET rankings stay as is and they beat Boise St, Utah St or Colorado St in the conference tournament, they will remove that hole.

Next, there is St Bonaventure – our Atlantic 10 “champion”. I think they are safe, but as a team from the Atlantic 10 hovering around a ranking of 30th, they probably fall into the bubble conversation.

Still – unless something strange happens, these teams are the ones playing this week for seeding. You will probably hear their name called on Sunday.

There are two exciting parts of championship week. Obviously, there are all the championship games. But then there is watching the desparation of the bubble teams trying to make one last good impression on the Selection Committee.

We might not be able to know for certain, but there are some historical rules that can help us really identify the teams who are playing for seeding vs. the teams who are playing for their tournament lives.

In this first piece, we will break down the conferences. This year, due to the Ivy League cancelling their winter sports, there are 31 conference champions and 37 at-large bids. In order to help start identifying the bubble, it can help to understand the potential teams.

At the end of the day, when the NCAA used the RPI, the worst RPI to ever get an at-large bid was in 1999 when New Mexico made it as #74. In 2019, the first time the committee used the NET, they came close to breaking this record – as #73 St. John’s made it into the field as the last at-large team. We can be a little ultra conservative and probably make a safe assumption that you will not be an at-large team if you are not in the top 80 of the NET rankings.

13 of the conferences do not have a team in the top 80 – these are definitely one-bid conferences. Those are (added their conference tournament winner if it has happened): America East, Atlantic Sun (Liberty), Big Sky, Colonial, MAAC, MEAC, NEC, OVC (Morehead St), Southland, Summit, Sun Belt (Appalachian St), SWAC, and WAC.

Another 6 conferences have 1-2 teams in the top 80 NET rankings. But they likely will be a one-bid conference. The reason for this is the best of those teams is ranked 54th (UC Santa Barbara from the Big West). 54th is really good, but all these teams have a large hole in their resume – quad 1 victories. Of these 8 teams, only #74 Louisiana Tech has a quad 1 win – and their lone win is a road win against #73 North Texas.

So, the Big West, Big South (Winthrop), MAC, Horizon, Conference USA and Southern conferences join the one-bids.

I suspect there is one more one-bid conference, but they would create a record depending on how far a loss causes the team to fall. The best ranked team to not get invited to the tournament (based on RPI) was #21 Missouri State in 2006. Currently, Colgate sits at 8th in the NET. I can’t imagine the Patriot second-place team can get an at-large bid based on having beaten only 4-5 teams in the Patriot league. But their NET ranking will put them on the bubble if they lose – probably the wrong side, but still…….

The Missouri Valley is decided – Loyola Illinois defended their regular season championship and do not need to worry about Selection Sunday (although with their NET ranking of 10 and being ranked in the polls, they were likely safe anyways). Drake is 25-4 with a ranking at 47 – they will probably be one of the Selection Committee’s most difficult decision.

So, that then leaves us with 10 conferences with a chance at multiple bids (outside the case of if Drake gives the MVC a second team). Here they are with the number of top 80 teams they have:

Big 10 (12), SEC (10), ACC (10), Big 12 (7), Big East (7), Pac 12 (6), Atlantic 10 (6), American (4), Mountain West (4), WCC (3).

So, they represent 69 teams – 10 of them likely will get their bid from the conference championship. Adding Drake gives us 60 teams fighting for 37 spots (OK – I guess ultra-conservatively 61 if we need to add Colgate if they lose on Wednesday or Sunday – they would be better off not joining the at-large discussion).

This establishes a few things. First, we likely have 19-20 one-bid conferences where they will be sending their conference champion to the dance.

Next, there are 9 conferences that can cause the bubble to shrink. The Atlantic 10 championship is St. Bonaventure vs VCU – both top 80 teams. If BYU can beat Pepperdine tonight, it will drop to 8 – since Gonzaga is beating St. Mary’s by 27 pts in the second half, BYU is in the top 20, and if St. Mary’s miraculously comes back, they are also in the top 80.

The major 6 conferences normally aren’t responsible for the bid-stealer. With typically over half of your conference being top 80 teams, the chance that one of the worst teams in the conference can go win games on 4-5 straight days is unlikely. So, if you are rooting for a bubble buster, you will be watching the American and Mountain West conference tournaments – and rooting for chaos.

If you are following the Lunatic’s guide and enjoying some of the games, they are treating you to some fun.

In the Summit conference, regular season champion South Dakota State found themselves down a decent part of the game, but with 9 seconds left, tied the game from the free throw line. Oral Roberts then broke their hearts by driving to the lane, missing the jumper in the lane, and having Kevin Obanor of the Golden Eagles tap the ball in right before the clock struck 0 to send the regular season champs home.

Meanwhile, in the Horizon conference, Cleveland State also found themselves down most of the game, but while they were down 1 with a minute left, a tap out on a defensive rebound led to a fast break for Tre Gomillion who gave the Vikings a lead with a thunderous dunk and foul.

With 5 minutes left, UNC-Greensboro just scored the last 5 points to take a 4 point lead in the Southern Conference championship. Appalachian State is running away with an upset in the Sun Belt – they have a 14 point lead over East division champion Georgia State with 4 minutes to play.

Lots of excitement in the Monday conference tournaments. They might not be the big names like Michigan or Baylor or Virginia. And admittedly, some of the basketball isn’t the best. But it sure is exciting to watch.