But if it is any consolation, the 5 minute curse might have been broken.

With 5 minutes, I noticed that #11 Texas was leading 70-62. And I thought, this can’t really happen for a third time. And then I watched the BYU Cougars cut the lead to 4. It got painful in one perspective, as the Cougars kept fouling Matas Vokeitaitis, the Longhorn’s center. And over the final 5 minutes, he missed 6 straight free throws, allowing the Cougars to continue to chip away at the lead.

After missing both free throws with about 30 seconds, the Cougars got the ball to Robert Wright III who drove to the hoop and shot a short jumper to try to cut the lead to 2 only to watch Vokeitaitis redeem himself with a huge block. The Longhorns would hit their free throws from that point to win 79-71.

And for yet another lead, one of the teams playing in the First Four games in Dayton followed up that win with an upset in the Round of 64. Could Texas actually make it to the Sweet 16 – we will see this weekend!!!

As for perfection, this game marked the last moment of perfection. Bob Degenhardt had managed to go 11-0 through the upsets. But he had the Cougars to beat the play-in winner, and so we now have a 12-way tie at 11-1.

But there is plenty of time to make up ground regardless of where you are in the standings. All you need is the team you have going to the Championship to keep winning. So, perfection might not be obtainable. But still lots of chances for success.

Congratulations to Bob for being the last perfect bracket.

North Carolina had a 19 point lead on the VCU Rams – but no lead in March is safe. The Rams kept chipping away at the lead, until I noticed that with five minutes left the score was 70-62. I told Elizabeth, that was the same score as the High Point game.

Sure enough, Michael Belle gets a dunk and was fouled. After hitting the free throw, it was a 5 point lead. Then, Terrence Hill Jr hit a long three pointer to cut the lead to a nail-biting 2 point lead. And while it was not a crazy scoring fest in the last 4 minutes like the High Point game, VCU kept nipping away until Terrence Hill Jr drove the baseline for a pretty layup to tie the game at 75.

North Carolina tried to hold for the last shot but VCU forced a turnover with 2 seconds left. So it looked like the Rams would get a chance to win the game in regulation. But Seth Trimble picked off the pass drove to the three pointer line and got a decent look to win the game but his shot was long – we are heading to overtime.

With 5 minutes left, Wisconsin had a comfortable 8 minute lead. Then Chase Johnston shot up a three-pointer from the half court logo on a run-out from a defensive rebound, and Terry Anderson hit a three-pointer from the top of the key, and in 45 seconds that comfortable lead was down to a 2 point nail-biting lead.

And then the pace of the game picked up. Neither team could stop the other. Nick Boyd hit a jumper for the Badgers just to get answered by Terry Anderson with a layup. Boyd would get fouled and hit both free throws just to get answered as Chase Johnston hit a three from the wing. The Badgers’ John Blackwell missed a shot in the lane only to have it tipped in by Nolan Winter – so of course, the Panthers’ Cam’Ron Fletcher hit a three-pointer to tie the game.

Boyd continued to drive to the lane at will – giving the Badgers a lead off a layup, and after High Point finally missed a shot, Boyd extended the lead to 4 points with another drive. But there was no quit in the Panthers – Johnston hit another three to cut the lead to 1 with about a minute to play. High Point pressed and caused the Wisconsin player to lose the ball out of bounds – and after a challenge, the Panthers got the ball.

As they were reviewing the play, the announcers mention a fascinating stat about the senior Chase Johnston who had cut the lead to 1. Johnston shot an amazing 48.5% from three-point range this season (63 of 132). What is more amazing is that he had only shot 4 shots from within the arc and missed all 4 of them. So, all but 4 shots he has taken all season have been three-pointers, and he has hit 48% of them, but hit 0% on his 4 chances for two-pointers.

Owen Aquino backed down his defender into the lane, and made a fade-away attempt, but his shot missed and the Badgers rushed the ball up the court so they could not be pressed. They give the ball to Boyd on an isolation play where everyone cleared out to let him drive 1 on 1. He drives down the right side of the lane and tries to switch hands to lay it up on the left, but the rim gets in the way.

The Panthers Rob Martin gets the rebound and starts to push the up the field and sees noneother than Johnston streaking down the court – so he lobs the ball down the court to the free-throw line and Johnston catches it, runs two steps towards the basket and hits his first two-point shot of the season on the open lay-up giving High Point a 83-82 lead with just 11 seconds to play.

Everyone knew who would get the ball – the Badgers gave it to Nick Boyd, he got stopped in his first attempt to drive to the hoop, but undeterred, he made another move and beat his defender to the lane. But Owen Aquino came off his man in the lane and managed to block Boyd’s layup.

But it wasn’t over just yet – Cam’Ron Fletcher got the rebound with 2 seconds and was fouled, but he missed the free throw. So, the Badgers had one last desperation try. But the lob pass down the court was intercepted by Terry Anderson and the upset had been completed.

It is what I love about March. Just when you think you have seen it all, it throws something new at you. A player who only shoots three-pointers and has not made a single shot from inside the arc all season wins the game with 11 seconds on a break-away lay-up.

It would be wrong to not mention the fact that the other mid-majors tried to make their own noise. South Florida came back from down 23 points to cut Louisville’s lead down to 4 points before running out of time as the Cardinals survive. McNeese was only down 3 to Vanderbilt at half-time, but the Commodores eventually pulled away.

After just 6 games, only 7 entries of 341 have perfect brackets. Congratulations to Troy Cole, Sonny Mao, Bernard Benson, Ashley Peterson, Bob Degenhardt, and my wonderful wife Elizabeth and my amazing daughter Katie. Of course, both my wife and daughter picked North Dakota State to upset Michigan State, so now we are down to 5.

Will someone survive the night 16-16 in the same way that Duke survived against Siena. Only time will tell. But beware the mid-majors. They are here to play!!!!

I was at a meeting at work, answering questions about some of the project our team was working on, when all of a sudden my phone blows up. First my son sends me a text. Then I received an email from a friend who enters the pool every year. Then my roommate from college sent me a text. And I knew the March had happened. I tried desperately to try to remember who was playing. When my meeting was over, I looked to try to find out what carnage had happened and heard a sound.

That sound was the collective deep breath as 88 of us gave a sigh of relief that our bracket wasn’t completely destroyed within the first 5 hours of the tournament, while the rest of the world gave a groan of disappointment as we didn’t get a 16 seed upsetting the overall #1 seed.

You have to give the five starters of Siena a ton of credit as they played their hearts out and literally played the entire game. The first bench player for Siena apparently came into the game with 10 seconds in the game – likely to intentionally foul.

Siena was up 11 at halftime and had the tournament favorites on the ropes. With 8 minutes left, Gavin Doty hit a three pointer to keep the Saints up 5. And then the Blue Devils led by Cayden and Cameron Boozer, Isaiah Evans, and an incredible display of team defense went on an 11-0 run over the next 6.5 minutes, and the Blue Devils survived with a 71-65 victory.

And I hear Kelly Clarkson in the back of my mind singing, “What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger!”

I know I have another game to write about, as Siena’s upset bid failed, but that was not the case for all the mid-major teams playing. I need to find a replay to see what I missed. I know it had to be exciting.

The TCU vs Ohio State game has started and so it is official. The brackets are now locked and it is time to Stomp the Lunatic! There is always some cleaning that I have to do when I get home from work, but if my administrative site is rig hot, we have 341 entries this year!!!! So that means that there are lots of you ready to stomp by sleep-deprived and fan-based picks into the ground.

Please check your brackets and make sure you see them in the standings page. It is a lot easier for me to fix any possible site issues if I know about them as early as possible. For example, I already know I need to clean up the standings page to have the correct regions for everyone’s winners – I seem to forget that every year. But the important part is making sure your picks are in the site. We can fix the titles of the standings at any time – but we need to make sure your picks are correctly entered before too many games are completed.

Hopefully, we have lots of fun games today – the first 4 days are always good for some classic games!!! Good luck to everyone!!!!

So very excited – and what a great game to get us started as TCU plays Ohio State at 12:15 pm. As of now we have 272 entries – if you waited to the last minute to enter your picks, that minute is now here!!!

Hope you all enter and that you all have a great time enjoying the Madness!!!! March is here – it is time to Stomp the Lunatic!!!!

I can see why Miami (OH) went 31-0. Even if you are a good defensive team, it is tough to guard a team that is going to shoot 41 three-point shots. When they did go inside the three point line, they were extremely efficient – going 13 – 23. That is just tough – you stop the drive and they just kick it out. And they are not afraid of shooting it from deep.

Add into it that the fans in Dayton were ready to explode whenever one of the three-pointers went down, and that lead to the Redhawks winning 89-79 over SMU to win their first NCAA Tournament games since 1999. The fans were so crazy, there was even a point where a bunch of them came out in speedos to try to distract the free throw shooter (which he did miss to delight the crowd).

Congratulations to the Redhawks for advancing to the next round!!!!!

I thought I would try to get ahead of my handicapping by getting all the first round games in tonight – but I have run out of steam. Still, the page has all the updates for Thursday’s games that start at noon.

Just 11 hours until the Round of 64 starts!!!! Make sure you get your picks in before Noon tomorrow!!!!

It could just be looking at too many handicapping stats. It could be that I am just tired. Or maybe it is simply that the top teams in the country have seemed to dominate teams throughout the season. But I was a little sad as I looked at my picks that were relatively void of upsets. Because the Lunatic loves it when the underdog wins.

In the first rounds, I am just not that impressed with the mid-majors. Almost always a 12 seed wins a game, and sometimes a 13 seed wins. But the teams I thought had the best chances to pull upsets, Northern Iowa and McNeese drew hot St. John’s and Vanderbilt. Typically, you see one of those updates happen because you get a mid-major champion playing against a team that was struggling down the stretch. Instead, you get a team that was the regular season and conference champion of the Big East. So, I tried to take some 11 seeds here and there, but I can’t see them continuing to then beat teams like Michigan State or Illinois. And it just keeps leading to the chalk winning. At one point when I was picking my sane picks, I had all four #1 seeds in the Final Four before I erased my bracket, took a step back to watch the Miami / SMU game, and then figured out what 2 or 3 seeds I was willing to give upsets to.

In my sane picks, I got Duke beating Houston and Arizona beating Iowa State as the Blue Devils go through the best teams of the Big 12 to win the championship against Arizona.

In my insane picks, I still have Duke beating Houston to get to the final. But I have Purdue upsetting Arizona, Michigan and then the Blue Devils to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.

In the last 2 hours, we have had over 40 entries as we are now up to 222 entries. With the typical last minute rush, we will hopefully break 300 entries again – which always leads to a fun tournament.

Don’t miss your chance to Stomp the Lunatic!!!!! Get your picks in – you have only 14 hours (basically until Noon tomorrow) to make your picks and help us all Stomp the Lunatic!

There was a point in time where Prairie View was 11-17 in February. But the Panthers won 7 straight games to rise to 8th in the SWAC and then win the SWAC Conference Tournament to earn their spot in Dayton. At 300th in the NET rankings, they were the worst team statistically to make the NCAA Tournament. So, no one would be surprised if the lost today to Lehigh, a team that finished 2nd in the Patriot league.

Well, the Panthers have now won their 8th game in a row, as their defense frustrated Lehigh into 16 turnovers with 9 of their shots being blocked. And unlike yesterday, there was no last second run to make it close – Prairie View kept the pressure on, beating the Mountain Hawks 67-55.

It is just a reminder that analysis can predict a lot. But at the end of the day, the games are played on the court – not on paper. Congratulations to the SWAC Conference Tournament Champions, Prairie View A&M.

Meanwhile, as we wait for the late game in Dayton, we get the news that SMU star player BJ Edwards will not be able to play as his injured ankle is still not ready to play. I do feel a little uncomfortable about this – SMU finished on a bad losing streak without their star player, but the news that he would be able to play this week was enough for the Selection Committee to give the Mustangs the final spot instead of other teams. One has to wonder if the committee would have gave the spot to streaking Oklahoma if they knew Edwards was unable to play.

Will this be the break that Miami needs to win in their first game this season against a power conference team – or will someone step up for the Mustang to keep their season alive until their star player can join them.

Not that people need help Stomping the Lunatic. But if you are not sure who to take, there is a method that helps.

Ken Pomeroy is one of the leading statisticians in college basketball analytics, and his models identify the most efficient offenses and defenses in college hoops. I read different cutoffs as people try to slide the outliers in – but in general something like 20-21 of the last 23 champions have been balanced enough to be top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

So if you want to know who that leaves you with….

• Duke (Off – 4, Def – 2)
• Arizona (Off – 6, Def – 3)
• Michigan (Off – 8, Def – 1)
• Florida (Off – 9, Def – 6)
• Houston (Off – 13, Def – 5)
• Louisville (Off – 19, Def – 25)
• Iowa State (Off – 20, Def – 4)
• Michigan State (Off – 24, Def – 13)

Here are some of the teams that missed out because their defense just missed the cut.

• Purdue (Off – 1, Def – 36)
• Illinois (Off – 2, Def 28)
• Vanderbilt (Off – 7, Def 31)
• Texas Tech (Off – 12, Def 33)

Here are some teams that missed out because their offense just missed the cut.

• Gonzaga (Off – 29, Def – 9)
• UConn (Off – 30, Def – 11)
• Tennessee (Off – 34, Def – 15)
• Virginia (Off – 27, Def – 16)
• St. Mary’s (Off – 40, Def – 20)

Finally, here are the teams that have a top 25 ranking in one measure but not a top 40 ranking in the other.

• Best remaining offenses – Alabama (3), Arkansas (5), BYU (10), Wisconsin (11), Georgia (14), Ohio State (16), Texas (18), UCLA (21), Santa Clara (22)
• Best remaining defenses – Nebraska (7), Kansas (10), St. John’s (12), Clemson (21), TCU (23), Northern Iowa (24)

I do think it is interesting that of the top 5 offenses, the only one with a top defense is Duke. But all 5 of the top defenses rank also have a top offense.

I guess the phrase defense wins championships might be more prophetic than we think. Anyways, hope that helps you with your brackets. Now I am off to see what other analytics I can come up with before eventually picking Purdue.

I will say this – because I do think analytics can really help you win a bracket pool like this. But there is a reality you have to live with. Let me approach it as a Purdue fan – lets say that you are picking the West region and while you can certainly see some teams with the potential to beat Arizona or Purdue, the odds tell you that these two teams will be in the regional final. The Kenpom approach says you should pick Arizona – and since they are the 1 seed and have only lost twice all season, this feels statistically the right answer.

So lets say you go with the stats, and the games start happening and the bracket breaks as you expected. As a Purdue fan, you desperately want to see your Boilers return to Indianapolis for the Final Four. But this will blow up your chance to win the pool – you went with the statistics and picked Arizona. So now you are conflicted. Are you really going to be happy if you come in 5th in the pool because you were right that Arizona beats Purdue? Of course not – you want to see your team win.

I personally feel you should always try to set yourself up so that you don’t end up being disappointed if you are correct. Sure, a little bit of realism is probably needed. Being from Richmond, I would like to see VCU go far. But picking them to the Final Four is probably a little crazy, even for me. But still I firmly believe you should pick with your heart so you can truly root for your picks.

If you are like me, that is a good way to use the upset pool. Pick with your heart in your entry trying to win the upset pool and pick with the statistics in your standard pool. And maybe you get lucky and one of them wins. Whichever way you choose, I hope it leads to success for you.