As I sit here watching Kansas play Cincinnati, I realized that my modeling chances for the evening are waning. So why not keep blogging. By the way, I have to say that the bubble is fascinating this year – I really am not sure what is going to happen. With Kansas State winning against Texas, and Cincinnati having a chance to knock off Kansas, can 11 Big 12 teams really make the tournament. I do think it is a win or else game for Cincinnati – I don’t know that 19-14 with 7-12 in the conference going against a team without its two leading scorers is good enough. But right now the Bearcats are up 14 – so they look good. That being said, it is still early.

Thursday is typically the classic bubble day, as the Big 12, ACC, Big East, Pac 12 and Mountain West all have their quarterfinals – and the 2nd rounds of the Big 10 and SEC are going. So, if you want to watch a bubble team, you can simply turn on the TV. I will say that I think the Big 10 and SEC hurt their bubble teams. The quarterfinals which will give a 7 seed on the bubble a shot at the 2 seed doesn’t happen until Friday. The Selection Committee makes their initial board tonight, and while teams can make their way on and off that board, the further into the weekend, I suspect the less likely for movement.

If you are looking for the best basketball, simply go to Kansas City (or watch ESPN) to see the Big 12 championship. Look at this schedule starting at 12:30 pm EST and going all day:

• #20 BYU vs #25 Texas Tech
• #1 Houston vs TCU (who is not a lock but probably is in)
• #7 Iowa State vs Kansas St (who clearly is on the bubble and might need another win to make it)
• #14 Baylor vs the winner of #16 Kansas / Cincinnati – so we either get to see how the injured Jayhawks due against a ranked team, or see if Cincinnati can move their way off the bubble and into the dance

You really can’t get much better than that. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t good basketball out there. Teams like #2 UConn, #4 UNC, and #6 Arizona open their conference tournaments – but their opponents probably need to be still playing on Saturday to even move onto the bubble. Teams finishing with 16+ losses like Florida State, Xavier and USC don’t get at large bids. But there are plenty of interesting bubble teams still playing. I could name off almost every game tomorrow, but here are the ones that are most interesting to me.

• Atlantic 10 co-champ and local favorite, Richmond opens against St. Joseph’s – I can’t see the Spiders making it without getting to the final. (Same can be said for Loyola with their game against St. Bonaventure)
• As a Big 10 fan, Michigan State vs Minnesota is interesting to me to see if the Spartans can advance against another 18-13 team.
• Mississippi State got ranked and then lost a bunch of games at the end of the season now desperately need a win against LSU (who could possibly get in the conversation with some wins)
• St. John’s vs Seton Hall is a classic bubble game, with the winner probably earning a chance to upset Connecticut. That is actually a prize – since no one is going to blame you for losing to the Huskies, but you will certainly be win if you can knock the defending national champions out of the Big East tournament.
• Wake Forest vs Pitt in the ACC could be against 2 teams both in the tournament, or could be 2 teams both out of the tournament trying to make one last good impression. The ACC bubble is confusing as always.
• UNLV gets to host San Diego State in the Mountain West – the Running Rebels are the Mt West team left out of the conversation for the bubble – which is unfair. Their 12-6 record was actually better than the Aztecs.
• Oregon probably desperately needs a win against a tougher than expected UCLA.
• Are there any crazier bubble teams than Ohio State and Iowa? OSU started the season 11-2, crash and burned so badly in January and early February that they fired their coach, and then responded with a 5-1 record for their interim coach. The Hawkeyes finished strongly with a 4-2 record (only losses both to Illinois) to get onto the bubble.
• Providence is clearly part of the Big East bubble, but also has Creighton – so a win could clinch things for them.
• NC State has seen their NET ranking move into the top 80 and will continue to rise with their big victory over Syracuse today – they next get Duke, which would certainly be a big game to have.
• Ole Miss vs Texas A&M is for two SEC teams that I think probably need to win 3-4 games, so this could easily be an elimination game.
• The evening games of the Mountain West include Colorado State vs. Nevada and New Mexico vs Boise State. Should be a good time in Las Vegas.

Some of the other evening games might be more interesting based on who wins later tonight – but I have already listed off too many games to watch as it is. And the second half of the Kansas game has started – although maybe I should be checking out the fact that Boston College is up double digits against Clemson, or that 3-28 DePaul is up a basket against Villanova.

So much basketball – so little time. Enjoy the games!