Well – I am relatively sure this will be a disaster. I spent so much time trying to create models that I really didn’t pay attention much to actual resumes until late last night and today. But I managed to come up with a crazy complex method to do this that will allow me to over-analyze how I did this for longer than I would like to admit.
All the models have flaws in them. I wish I had a longer amount of time to figure out how to make adjustments for this week. For example, a team like Arizona or Purdue might drop a couple spots in the polls for losing in their semi-finals – but I have to take what the polls said at the time. I already have fears about the process – since it as Houston as the #1 seed – despite my picking UConn. The models and unadjusted polls simply aren’t going to give the Huskies credit for winning the Big East tourney while the Cougars got destroyed by Iowa State.
I am still going to go forward with what I have – this is all my sillyness anyways – so who cares if I lose again to the media. I ended up with 12 voters – just like the committee. Then, I basically walked through the voting process.
I will eventually put a ton of information on the bracketology site about the voters and methods. But since it is 4:10 pm, I have to get a bracket out before the selection show. I am also going to include my specific vote in the list – so we can see if this is better than my normal process.
On the bracketology site – I will actually fill the regions / etc. – but for sake of time, I will simply list the seed lines.
1 – Houston (2), Connecticut – BIG EAST (1), Purdue (3), North Carolina (4)
2 – Iowa St – BIG 12 (5), Arizona (7), Tennessee (6), Creighton (9)
COMMENTS – I will be interested to see how the committee chooses between Marquette and Creighton – I chose the team that went to the finals, but the metrics like Creighton.
3 – Marquette (8), Auburn – SEC (10), Duke (14), Illinois (12)
COMMENTS – I am surprised the metrics liked Duke this much – I would suspect it will be Baylor or Kentucky….
4 – Baylor (12), Kentucky (13), Gonzaga (17), Alabama (18)
COMMENTS – This is one that I really don’t agree with my committee – if one of the WCC teams is ahead a seed line, it should be St. Mary’s.
5 – Kansas (16), St. Mary’s – WCC (15), BYU (20), South Carolina (21)
6 – Wisconsin (19), San Diego St (23), Utah St (24), Texas Tech (22)
COMMENTS – will be interested to see where the committee puts Wisconsin, especially if the beat Illinois for the Big 10 title. Also, very curious to see how they rank order the Mountain West.
7 – Florida (25), Nevada (27), Dayton (29), Washington St (26)
8 – Boise State (28), New Mexico – MT WEST (32), Nebraska (31), Colorado (36)
9 – Texas (30), Clemson (33), Michigan St (35), Florida Atlantic (41)
COMMENTS – The metrics really like FAU – I am not sure they are this safe, but I hope they are.
10 – St. John’s (37), Drake – MVC (44), Colorado St (34), Indiana St (51) / TCU (40)
COMMENTS – While I would love this, I would be surprised if Indiana State makes the tournament. But this is the biggest discrepancy between my picks and the imaginary committee. If I have counted correctly, we are also already at 34 at-large. That is just crazy.
11 – Missisippi St (47) / Pitt (39), James Madison (60), Grand Canyon (59), Oregon (54)
COMMENTS – It is crazy that we have started the automatic bids in the 11 seeds. I also think the committee is crazy to believe that either Grand Canyon or James Madison will be before NC State or Oregon.
12 – McNeese St (61), NC State (53), Duquesnes (62), Samford (64)
13 – Yale (65), UAB (63), Charleston (66), Vermont (67)
COMMENTS – I might have to put my own bracket out as well – I forgot that I ranked ordered teams that will miss the tournament ahead of these – so my numbers are going to go into the 80s instead of up to 68…..
14 – Akron (68), Oakland (69), Morehead St (71), Colgate (70)
15 – Western Kentucky (72), Long Beach St (74), Longwood (75), Stetson (73)
16 – South Dakota St (76), St Peter’s (78), Montana St (79) / Howard (80), Grambling (81) / Wagner (82),
FIRST FOUR OUT – Northwestern (38), Texas A&M (42), Wake Forest (52), Villanova (49), Cincinnati (57)
NEXT FOUR OUT – Oklahoma (50), Providence (43), Virginia (45), Utah (58)
Since it also doesn’t include my last outs – I will have a separate post with my original seeding.
But since it is already 5 pm, lets at least publish this post.