Ken Pomeroy is one of the premier statisticians in the college basketball analytics world, and so it makes sense that people have research how his model has done over time.
My understanding is that every champion since his model came out in 2002 has had an offensive efficiency ranking in the top 40 and a defensive efficiency ranking in the top 25. So lets see who that narrows the field down to…..we will list their offensive and defensive ranking in parentheses.
– Houston (17, 2)
– Tennessee (29, 3)
– Auburn (10, 4)
– North Carolina (24, 6)
– Connecticut (1, 11)
– Arizona (8, 12)
– Marquette (21, 19)
– Purdue (4, 21)
– Creighton (12, 24)
Should probably not be a surprise that these are basically teams in the top 3 seeds.
If you are looking for any near misses.
On the defensive side, you have Duke (7, 26), Nebraska (36, 30) and Nevada (40, 36)
On the offensive side, you have New Mexico (41, 23) and St. Mary’s (45, 16).
And of course, the top efficiency margin teams to miss on this are 5th Iowa St (55, 1), 10th Illinois (3, 93), 13th Alabama (2, 112), 14th Baylor (6, 64) and 15th Gonzaga (9, 46)