I have struggled with this. I had my original picks that I gave on the Podcast (definitely check it out) – but then realized they were very similar to my current picks. I then had wild crazy picks – going under the strategy that with the chalk winning the first 2 rounds, the upsets would eventually have to come. And then after looking of the carnage of upsets, I changed all of it.

I had three reasons for this:

1. Before the tournament as I was doing my bracketology, all I could think to myself is that it is amazing that Connecticut, Houston and Purdue have done so well in the season that they will have 1 seeds no matter what they do in their conference tournaments. Then, when I made my current picks, I tried to find places to not have all 4 top seeds make it to the Final Four, which felt awkward (and led to a horrible pick of Auburn over UConn).
2. Every year, I write an article about how it is impressive that the conference champions manage to survive to the finals (although to be fair, UConn ruined that theory last year – I am already doubting this new strategy).
3. I am a crazy person that overthinks everything. Having this much time to over-analyze my picks causes me to make likely poor choices.

Anyways, here is the strategy that I took. I would pick regular season champions over conference tournament champions. I would pick either over a team who is simply an at-large team. If two teams are at the same level, I will need to make choices.

Oh – one last rule. Once my final four happens, I can not pick a team that my main picks have winning the tournament (Purdue and Connecticut). The whole point is to give me a second chance if something goes wrong (which hopefully will not happen).

So – here is each game based on my new logic.

East – UConn (Big East champ) beats San Diego State. Illinois (Big 10 tourney champ) beats Iowa State (Big 12 tourney champ) – I have felt that the Big 10 has had a slightly better tournament so far, and so the Big 10 champ moves on. UConn will claim the East.

West – UNC (ACC champ) beats Alabama. Arizona (Pac 12 champ) beats Clemson. UNC beats Arizona (since I have felt that the ACC has had a better tournament so far – although the Pac 12 has also out-performed expectations) to claim the West.

South – Houston (Big 12 champ) beats Duke. NC State (ACC tourney champ) beats Marquette – need to have at least one crazy upset). Houston beats NC State since regular season champs beat tourney champs in this strategy to claim the South.

Midwest – Purdue (Big 10 champ) beats Gonzaga. Tennessee (SEC champ) beats Creighton. Purdue beats Tennessee (since I can’t pick against my Boilers yet) to claim the Midwest.

I thought the top teams were clearly better – at this point when they only need to win 2 more games, I should take them.

Now, this is where the strategy goes crazy upsets. I picked Purdue in my insane picks and UConn in my sane picks – so obviously both of them can not advance to the championship against other regular season champions. So, North Carolina will play Houston for the championship.

On one hand, Houston was the higher ranked team going in and came from the conference perceived to be the best going into the tournament. UNC however is clearly from the conference that has performed the best during the tournament. So – the tie-breaker goes to the fact that Elizabeth’s dad went to UNC. My picks this year have been about going with my heart of what I would like to see. And if my Boilers don’t win (the team I desire upon all desire to win) and UConn doesn’t win (the team that my head says should win), picking a team that my family has ties to makes sense.

So – there we go. The Lunatic’s second chance picks will be the 4 favorites making it to the Final 4, and then have chaos happen in Arizona.

That should be relatively easy for all of you to stomp. Good luck to everyone with your second chance picks!!!!