As has become a tradition, Charlie and Katie explain the logic of their picks – with some obvious embellishments from their daddy.
This year, Katie’s pick includes a little video that shows what Nanny and Grandpa have been teaching the children about being a fan of North Carolina.
Just click on Charlie’s picks or Katie’s picks here or on the site navigator.
3 responses to “The ever popular Charlie and Katie picks are revealed”
Hello Katie,
Glad to make your acquaintance. In your handicapping this year I note that you pose a most delicious problem: “I don’t know any Vegas statisticians who could tell me what the lines would be if these two teams won their first round games.”
Well, good news. I now do know how to do this conditional probability model. I can slide your hypothetical wins and losses into your dad’s data repository, refit the 600 parameter BT model, and produce rational odds of any future possible tournament.
I would be most pleased to write up a formal proposal for your consideration and review. I am confident we can come to a most equitable arrangement for jointly taking down the Las Vegas bookies–my models and your capital. A winning combination if ever there was one.
Given your clear, enthusiastic, and genuine “Go Heels” production you have fully satisfied my client qualification standards.
Looking forward to a long and mutually fruitful partnership,
Bill
LOL 🙂
Well – I am actually somewhat surprised, but the Katie Hodgson Line Model (consisting of just a few variables) is scary accurate (well, for considering the level of work done).
The model tends to under-predict the Vegas line – typically having the hardest time when you have a 15-25 point line (like the Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky game). But the distribution is surprisingly good.
Matched the line – 12 (21.4%)
Within 1 pt – 19 (33.9%)
Within 2 pts – 14 (25.0%)
Within 3 pts – 5 (8.9%)
Within 4 pts – 3 (5.4%)
Within 5 pts – 1 (1.8%)
Within 6 pts – 2 (3.6%)
So, using just a couple variables and spending very little time, the model can correctly guess what the Vegas line will be within a basket 80.4% of the time. That’s not bad for the level of effort. Of course, that could also explain why Katie is doing the best of anyone in my household.