The Lunatic Reveals His Second Chance


And uses it in order to tell a different story. I struggled with how I should make my picks. Should I go with my heart? Should I go with my statistical model? Should I use the KenPom philosophy (basically take a more sophisticated statistical model)? Should I go with the team closest to where the game was being played? There were so many silly ways to pick the teams, and I wanted to avoid going simply with the teams I think will win, where I would end up with 4 #1 seeds advancing to the Final Four.

Then, I saw a story about how much the transfer window is changing the game. It had a graphic that showed the school that each of the 5 starters started at for each team in the Sweet 16. Here are the numbers:

  • Auburn – 1
  • Michigan – 0 (although ironically, they had 2 from Texas Tech and 1 from their opponent Auburn)
  • Ole Miss – 1
  • Michigan State -4
  • Florida – 1
  • Maryland – 2
  • Texas Tech – 1 (yes, that is right that Michigan has more of its freshman than they did)
  • Arkansas – 1 (not surprising that Calapari had to reload through the transfer portal)
  • Duke – 4
  • Arizona – 0 (is it a shock that one of the schools in the FBI recruiting scandal has moved to living off the transfer window)
  • BYU – 3 (impressive since they lost their coach to Kentucky)
  • Alabama – 1
  • Houston – 3
  • Purdue – 5 (go Boilers!!!)
  • Kentucky – 0 (not surprising since they lost their coach to Arkansas)
  • Tennessee – 2

Of all 16 teams, the only one that had all 5 of their starters be players they recruited from high school was my Boilermakers. I have always known that Matt Painter was an incredible coach, and always did a great job of developing players, but it surprised me that of all these teams, only Painter has recruited (and maybe more importantly, kept) his star players.

It makes me sad that only 5 of the 16 schools recruited at least 3 of their starters. But it proved the original author’s point that teams are now building through the transfer portal.

Since that makes me sad, and it would make me so very happy if this outcome happened, I decided that I would pick my teams for my second chance bracket based on who has developed its talent from the start. If there was a tie, I would pick who I want to see win.

In the South, Auburn sneaks past Michigan, and Michigan State beats Ole Miss, with the Spartans advancing to the Final Four.

In the West, Maryland upsets Florida (with only 2 starters), Texas Tech takes out Arkansas (with a tie, I go back to who I want – which will not be the remaining 8-10 SEC team). And then Maryland advances (with the smallest number).

In the East, Duke takes out Arizona and BYU (who beat Alabama) to go to San Antonio.

And of course, in the Midwest, Purdue beats Houston (despite Houston having 3 starters) and Tennessee gets their revenge against Kentucky – who swept the Volunteers in the regular season (because it is hard to beat a well-coached team three times in a season). And then my Boilers advance.

In the Final 4, my Boilers will upset both Duke and Michigan State to win the NCAA Championship to end the 25 year drought for the Big 10 (although I guess Maryland won in 2002 when they were still part of the ACC).

Here is the picture of my picks.

I know that this is a crazy pick. But this would make me so happy, and as I say in my handicapping page, when in doubt, never bet against the team you want to see win. So Go Boilers!!!!!

Good luck to everyone in beating the Lunatic for a second time.


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