Grading the Conferences


So, I think the grader needs to re-evaluate his grading method. I came up with a complicated method Sunday night to grade everything based on the Vegas line. I felt that since there were no upsets, you couldn’t really grade based on if the favorites went as far as they were expected, because basically everyone went as far as they were expected.

So, I came up with a method that looks at how the teams did against the Vegas spread (thanks to my handicapping page, I have all the lines). I took all the results, and divided them into 5 equal groups (for A, B, C, D, and F). I then made some adjustments. Winning a game mattered. Winning a game you weren’t supposed to mattered more. Losing a game by less points than anyone else mattered (so for example, UConn lost to Florida by only 2 points in the Round of 32 which is better than Maryland (Sweet 16), Texas Tech (Elite 8) or Auburn (Final 4) – so they might have lost in the Round of 32 but they looked like a Final Four team in that game.

So, with an hour before the game, I started adding everything up. And thanks to the fact that they had no one worse than a C, the Big 10 would have won. That didn’t feel quite right either. Doesn’t feel right to say they were the best when none of their teams made the Final Four. So, I am now scrambling and making up the rules as I go.

SEC – A

  • A teams (Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss)
  • B teams (Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M)
  • C teams (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt)
  • D teams (Texas)
  • F teams (Mississippi State, Georgia, Missouri)

With the most teams in the A category and 2 teams in the Final 4, they win the conference battle. And lets face it – Arkansas’s run was sadly the most exciting of the double digit seeds. It wasn’t all good – as they also had the most teams with an F. But with 14 teams, they would bound to have a few duds.

Big 12 – A-

  • A teams (Houston, Arizona)
  • B teams (Texas Tech, BYU)
  • C teams (Baylor, Iowa State)
  • F teams (Kansas)

With a team in the Final 4 and Arizona’s strong performance against the spread, I put them next. Quite honestly, this grade is really based on Houston’s amazing run. They were the team I thought was the most vulnerable #1 seed, and yet, they are still playing on Monday night when everyone else has fallen.

Big 10 – B+

  • A teams (Michigan St, Purdue)
  • B teams (UCLA, Oregon, Maryland)
  • C teams (Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin)

I would argue that both the Spartans and Boilers exceeded expectations as they did very well against the Vegas lines. It might seem mean to give a Sweet 16 team like Michigan a C, but their best performance against the spread was actually their 3 point victory over UC-San Diego. No bad teams since every team won their first game, but can’t give an A without a team in the Final Four.

WCC – B

  • A teams (Gonzaga)
  • C teams (St. Mary’s)

To be fair, the WCC wasn’t supposed to make it far. But they both won their first round game and Gonzaga was competitive against Houston – so it was actually a pretty good tournament for the non-power conference

Big East – C

  • A teams (Connecticut, Creighton)
  • C teams (Xavier, St. John’s)
  • F team (Marquette)

UConn had one of the best performances against Florida. And Creighton did really well against Auburn. With a bunch of 8/9 seeds, you aren’t supposed to get past the 2nd round. But St. John’s certainly was. And Marquette forgot to show up. Not getting a team into the second weekend gets you a C – even with two teams getting an A.

Mt West – C

  • A teams (Colorado State, New Mexico)
  • F teams (Utah State, San Diego State)

With two on the outstanding side of the rankings and two on the horrible side of the rankings, it felt like a C was the appropriate ranking. Colorado State and New Mexico saved the conference from a worse grade.

ACC – D

  • A teams (Duke)
  • B teams (North Carolina)
  • F teams (Clemson, Louisville)

Here is the problem. Duke got an A because they made the Final Four. But Duke was supposed to win the entire tournament. Their collapse to Houston probably should make them a B. North Carolina got a B solely off destroying San Diego State in the First Four game. And Clemson and Louisville forgot to show up. This was not a good March for the ACC – so they get the worst grade of the power conferences.

One-bid conferences – F

  • A teams (Robert Morris)
  • B teams (Drake, McNeese, UNC-Wilmington, Alabama State)
  • C teams (High Point, Montana, Norfolk St, St Francis, UC San Diego, Yale, Mt St Mary’s, Wofford)
  • D teams (Akron, American, Grand Canyon, Liberty, Lipscomb, Omaha, Bryant, SIU-Edwardsville, Troy, VCU)
  • F teams (Memphis)

Memphis was the best ranked team as the sole team from the American as a 5 seed, and they lost. Drake and McNeese did win their first games, but then disappeared in their second round games. But the biggest factor with this grade is that excluding Memphis losing, 10 other Cinderellas lost by more than 6 points compared to the spread (which is actually a lot – the Vegas lines tend to be pretty close).

Well, the game as tipped off, as Houston has an early 14-10 lead. As the announcers have said, the game so far is a rock fight – which is scenario 2 for the Lunatic. But there is still plenty of time.


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