After years of saying ‘Some year’ I finally got my tournament simulator running. I assume my B-T model gives me the correct winning probabilities. I then run through all 63 games and track. Then repeat for like 10,000 or 100,000 tournaments. Some factoids: Given Lunatic scoring expected value of B-T is 990. Standard deviation is 200. The 5%-95% range is 660-1320. I have Kansas as better than Ohio, but Ohio wins with higher probability because they are in a weaker bracket. There is a 5% probability that no Number 1 seed makes the final four. Cool what the machine can do. Anyone have any suggestions for calculations they would like run? No promises, but this is nerd week for me. -Bill
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Cheat Sheets are available!!!!
OK – for those of you who don’t want to have to build a statistical model and just want a quick way to evaluate the teams – the Lunatic is here to help you as well! I have created a summary page, which for each game, provides some nice summary statistics about the teams playing in a side-by-side format. So you can look at adjusted scoring margin, RPI, strength of schedule, games vs. Top 50 opponents, or bad losses.
If you want to do your picks quickly, it isn’t a bad tool – go check it out!!!!
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Yoda….
If I win it all it’s due to my 3 year old picking my bracket. THE FORCE IS STRONG IN THIS ONE, IT IS !!!! -Joe
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11-seed play-ins?
I need help. Having 16 seeds play-in to get to the round of 64 seems a bit silly, but ok, all’s fair in raw commercialism. But what’s this with having 11-seeds (USC/VCU) or 12-seeds (UAB/Clemson) having to playing? Why are better teams having to run through an entire additional round than worser teams? Will someone knowledgable (or simply opinionated will also do) please explain? Thank you.
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More importantly
I think that we might get 5 or 6 Horgans to participate in this year’s competition. I just wanted to throw down the gauntlet early this year to see if any other family units are going to step up to the plate in this large of a manner….the good news for everyone is that only ONE of the Horgans is a statistician (maybe that is ‘bad’ news for everyone considering that we all know how well the statistical models tend to work!).
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Pretty sure the committee just wanted to spite Joe Lunardi
I think the committee was getting as sick as I was of Joe Lunardi stupid face on the TV 24/7 spouting about the field. He went from being a geek who was good at figuring out who would be in the tournament to being an arrogant clown. Once coaches started saying that ‘Lunardi should have us in after that win’ (see VT beating Duke), I think the committee decided to take him down a peg. Worth mentioning – based on Richmond’s seed, can it be assumed that they were out of the field if they lost to Dayton? That would have been worse than Colorado.
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Finally, the brackets are up!
Very short message since it is late! But after much cursing myself for trying to improve the site, I have the registration page and entry form up – just look at the 2011 Entry links (Register and Login). Please remember the email that you use when you register – not only is it the email I will send updates to, but it is also your login password! If you have problems with the site, let me know through email atthomas@tehodgson.com- I will check at night to see what people need. Good luck to all of you in stomping the Lunatic!
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VCU to the Final Four Baby….
Ha…I’ll keep dreaming
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Tom’s Pathetic Bracketology Attempt
Admittingly, I have not put as much effort into this as last year. Maybe it is just because I am more excited about getting the site up and running – hopefully, people will really like the changes such as being able to view and edit their picks after they enter. They might seem like small changes to you – in fact, if done correctly, they should be… But they will be large shifts in the amount of time I need to maintain the site – which is always a big win to me.
Anyways, I have quickly ranked the conferences – and then haphazardly merged them into a jumbled mess that would represent my version of the tournament. One of these years when I get to follow the whole season closer – like when my kids are in college – I will do better at this. But still, we will have to see what my haphazard attempt against the experts. To see who I think is in, go to the link in the 2011 Lunatic’s ramblings section.
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Selection Sunday is Here
Which means time for me to rant on the media. I am tired about hearing how weak the bubble is this year. The media obviously has an agenda against the NCAA for expanding the tournament. If you read some of the ESPN analysts, you hear the comments like – thank goodness they didn’t go to 96 teams, we don’t have enough good teams at 68.
But then, when you look at Lunardi’s first 7 teams knocked out of the tournament – they include the following: Alabama – SEC West champ at 12-4, Missouri St – MVC champ (RPI 42), UAB – Conf USA champ (RPI 31), Harvard – Ivy champ (RPI 32). Not to mentionGeorgiaandBostonCollege.
I am sorry, but when you are leaving out 3 regular season champs with RPIs lower than 50 and a SEC West champ that has the crime of scheduling poorly, but has beaten bothKentuckyandTennessee- you have no right to say this is a weak field.
I don’t know that I have time to do the bracketology thing again this year – not to mention I did so poorly at it last year. And they do a good job of understanding the committee. But saying the bubble is weak is an insult to some really talented teams. You can argue whether or not these teams deserve one of the last spots in the field over other deserving teams – they all have flaws which is why they are in that conversation. But don’t take away from these talented teams and say there aren’t enough good teams out there to fill a field of 68 – when you are leaving that many regular season champions out with good RPIs, you lose the right to that claim.
