Stomp The Lunatic

So, it only makes sense to talk about the elephant in the room. Over the last few years, there has been a push to increase the number of the teams in the NCAA tournament. In 2023, the NCAA created a committee called the Transformation Committee to lead their modernization efforts. Co-chaired by Greg Sankey (the SEC commissioner) and Julie Cromer (athletic director at Ohio University), they made multiple recommendations (the public version of this can be seen on the NCAA site here – DI board endorses modernization recommendations – NCAA.org.

But the one consequential one to the Lunatic was this under Championships. Expanding access to NCAA championships to include 25% of active Division I members in good standing in team sports sponsored by more than 200 schools.

This would mean that if the NCAA follows through with the recommendations from the committee, we will see an NCAA Tournament of 90+ teams in the future (personally, if you are going to do this, you need to go to 96 – have a 32 byes and their opponents are the winners of the other 64 teams).

Obviously, the Lunatic has lots of opinions about this. First of all, I have very selfish reasons that I don’t want expansion. How would this impact the Stomp the Lunatic Pool? It is fine to not pick 4 play-in games, but would it make sense to not pick 32 play-in games – that is an entire round. I am not sure I know enough JavaScript to modify the form to add another round to it (and account for the byes). And when would these games take place? If they started everything on Thursday and gave people 3-4 days to look at the bracket and make their picks, it would be fine. But there are always concerns about how long the season is – it is likely they would want to play those games on Tuesday and Wednesday like the current play-in games. Would people be able to make their picks in just 1 1/2 days? I am sure I would eventually come up with a plan – but I don’t want to have to make those types of decisions.

But there are also some really strong arguments against expansion. One of the statements by the committee is that there is access to the tournament. Well, everyone at the moment has access to the tournament – win your conference tournament. In all but a few conferences, everyone is invited. It doesn’t matter if you went 3-15 in the conference – if you can win 4-5 games in a row during the conference tournament, you get the automatic bid. At the moment, the NCAA tournament is really a 360 team tournament, that after the first 4 rounds, the NCAA decides to give 36 teams a second chance and have them play the 32 teams still remaining.

The second goes back in time to history. The lowest seed in history to win the NCAA championship is the 8 seed – when Villanova beat Georgetown in 1985. Since expanding to 64 teams, here are the seeds to win the tournament:

• 1 seed – 24 (63.2%)
• 2 seed – 5 (13.2%)
• 3 seed – 4 (10.5%)
• 4 seed – 2 (5.3%)
• 6 seed – 1 (2.6%)
• 7 seed – 1 (2.6%)
• 8 seed – 1 (2.6%)

Sure, there have been some great stories of 11 seeds making it to the Final Four – including the awesome run by the NC State Wolfpack this year. But in the last 40 years (since this year, Purdue and Connecticut are both 1 seeds), we could have made the tournament a 16 team tournament and included the actual champion 92.5% of the time.

Currently, we have 36 at large bids. The eventual champion has come from the top 32 teams seeded. Even if something crazy happens and none of the top 32 teams in the country win their conference tournament, we still have enough spots for all of those teams (plus 4 more).

Finally, there is the most important question. Do we really think these teams have a chance? If teams like Illinois and Alabama are losing by double digits to Connecticut, do I honestly think that 20-12 Oklahoma (the first team left out by the committee) that went 8-10 in their conference really has a chance. They couldn’t win 6 games in a row in their conference – but I somehow think that they can win 6 games in March when they are going to have to go through a lineup like Clemson, Baylor, Arizona, Alabama, Connecticut and then Purdue.

And more importantly, that was the 1st team out. If I don’t think that Oklahoma has a chance, do I think that the 82nd ranked team in the NET has a shot (by the way, that was 16-17 Maryland). So, more bluntly, do I really want a team that didn’t even win half their games during the season in the tournament. The goal of people like Greg Sankey is to get as many teams from his power conference in the tournament as possible. Maybe Julie Cromer as the athletic director of a school from the MAC was hoping that a few of those extra spots would fall to the mid-major teams, but lets face it – that is not how it would work.

Of course, I can also think of some reasons to expand. Lets say that they increased to 80 teams like Sankey suggested before this years tournament as a starting point. And lets look at the 12 highest teams in the NET that got left out. Those would be:

• Indiana State (28, 27-6)
• St John’s (32, 20-13)
• Cincinnati (37, 20-14)
• Pitt (40, 22-11)
• Villanova (41, 18-15)
• Wake Forest (43, 20-13)
• Oklahoma (46, 20-12)
• Utah (48, 19-14)
• Ohio State (49, 20-13)
• Princeton (55, 22-4)
• Bradley (57, 21-11)
• Providence (58, 21-13)

So, in theory, by expanding to 80, we would see 3 more mid-major schools (in this example, Indiana St, Princeton and Bradley) join some of the snubbed teams like Oklahoma, St. John’s and Pitt thanks to the expansion. Other than my outlier of Seton Hall (who is 67th in the NET – not sure how the 4th place team in the Big East finished 67th in the NET – might be an analysis for another evening when I have more time), all the teams (like Indiana State) that we have been complaining about being snubbed would now be in the tournament. Of course, we would always say a team was snubbed – this just moves the list down (now instead of Indiana State and St. John’s being snubbed we are talking about Virginia Tech and UCF being snubbed…)

There is also the reality that maybe expanding the tournament will make some of the first round games more competitive – to make an expanded tournament work, you would have to start having at large teams playing the small conference auto-bids. Providence probably has a better chance of giving Arizona a close game than Long Beach State. I would rather see Long Beach State get their chance, but I am not naive enough to believe that Providence has a better chance to keep the game close or even pull the upset.

In a way, that is a strength and a weakness. Those games might produce a few more upsets if teams like Providence are ending up as 14 or 15 seeds. But it is a single elimination tournament. Those upsets do ruin chances for legitimate tournament contenders to have an off-game and leave early. When it is Long Beach State, it seems exciting. I can’t get as excited about a struggling major conference team to pull that upset.

The last strength is that these things always work out. The first year that the tournament expanded from 65 to 68 teams was 2011. And I am sure there were lots of comments around we don’t need 3 more teams – those teams likely don’t have a chance to win the whole thing. And sure enough, that very year, 11 seed VCU went on a streak that took them all the way to the Final 4. If those 3 extra spots didn’t exist, VCU wouldn’t even be playing that year.

And of course, this year, NC State showed that an 11 seed is certainly capable of making a run to claim the title. If they got this far, there is certainly the possibility that they could have won 2 more games.

This year also had the worst-case scenario where so many of the teams that won the conference tournaments were teams that the Selection Committee was not planning on selecting. Those teams earned their bid by winning their conference tournament. But it did mean the pool of at-large teams then shrunk as teams like North Carolina and Arizona now needed an at-large spot to play.

Lets face it – expansion is probably inevitable. With all the buzz that Indiana State and Seton Hall shouldn’t have been playing in the NIT championship since they should have been in the NCAAs, and teams like NC State making the Final Four and other 11 seeds like Oregon winning a game in the tournament, there will be a desire to include more of those types of teams.

But if we are going to do it, I would include a few rules. If we go to 80, we now have 48 at large bids to give.

• The top 6 mid-major conference regular season champions (in the mind of the committee) that don’t win their conference tournament get an at-large bid. That would likely be some combination of Utah State, Indiana State, Princeton, South Florida, Richmond, Appalachian State (25-6), UC-Irvine (23-9), High Point (23-8).
• The top 4 teams in the major conferences (now just the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big 10 and SEC) based on the standings automatically get an at-large bid if they need it. This would mean that at least this year, Pitt and Seton Hall would have got a bid.
• In order for a team with a losing record in the conference to be considered, all the teams at least 2 games above them in the standings must be already in the field. This gives the chance for a team with a big non-conference win to get credit for it (since it doesn’t count in the conference standings). But it also places weight on the regular season.
• I am good with setting an expectation that the conference tournament can’t hurt you according to the above rule, but can help you get out of it. Basically, what this would do is allow a 9-9 team who gets beat by another 9-9 team to still be eligible and not caught by the losing record rule because they are now 9-10. But it would allow a school like NC State who was 9-11 in conference to make it to the championship game before losing and no longer worry about this rule (since they would be 13-12)

That being said, if we are really going to expand, I would try to solve multiple problems with what I think is a great plan.

Expand the tournament to 96 teams. 32 teams will get byes.

• Any regular season champion from the 5 power conferences are guaranteed a bye.
• Any team that wins both their regular season and conference tournament are guaranteed a bye.
• If there is room, any team winning the conference tournament of a power conference are guaranteed a bye.
• If there is still room, the committee will select the remaining best teams to get the remaining byes.

Any regular season champion that does not win their conference tournament is guaranteed one of the remaining 64 at-large bids. I can be persuaded to figure out a rule that a regular season champ must satisfy (such as having won 20 games or finishing in the top 150 in the NET) – but it needs to be inclusive. If we are talking about expanding to give more access, the teams that deserve that access the most are the ones who won their regular season title.

The 64 teams not getting a bye play each other – the winner obviously advances to play one of the teams that have a bye, the losers will play in the NIT tournament. A requirement to accept the bid into the tournament is being willing to continue to play if you lose your first round game.

By expanding to 80-96 teams, you are essentially eliminating the worthy pool of teams that go to the NIT. But the NIT is a worthy part of college basketball history that should continue in some format. This allows the teams that would traditionally go to the NIT to still participate. It will also make it so that teams can not decline the invitation.

It is too late at the moment to come up with what this would have looked like this year, but I might have to do that after the tournament is over (since my mind tomorrow will simply be on my Boilers). I might need to come up with a few more rules to create fairness.

But if we expanded in this way, we would do a few things:

• Save the NIT, which would probably die if the NCAA tournament is expanded to 80 teams. All the teams that are hosting first round games would now be in the NCAA, and it would leave only smaller schools, which will hurt any TV ratings.
• Guarantee access to regular season champions – there should be some reward for being the best team in your conference over 18 games.
• Possibly produce better matchups in the 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, and 3 vs 14 games. It is one thing for a 6th place team to win their conference tournament and end up as a 15 seed. But in this new expansion, they will have to beat someone else for the right to play against the 2 seed.

It is that time for the Lunatic to grade the conferences on how they did. I might be growing a little lenient as I do this. I try to account for a few things – how many games the conference is supposed to win, and how many Elite 8 teams you have. I gave grades to all the conferences with more than 1 team.

ACC – A+. The ACC was clearly the best conference of the tournament. NC State was the best story of the tournament making the Final 4. Clemson and Duke also made the Elite 8. They went 12-5 in the tournament – considering they only had 5 teams, it was amazing that they ended up with the most wins from any conference.

Big East – A. The Big East’s performance in the tournament shows they kind of were robbed by only getting 3 teams. They are 9-2 in the tournament, with Connecticut in the championship game and Marquette and Creighton both making the Sweet 16. They have the best record of the conferences – but this is also what the three teams were supposed to do, so I left them at an A.

Big 10 – A. The Big 10 had the second most wins – going 10-5 in the tournament. With Purdue in the championship and Illinois making the Elite 8, this has been one of the best showings for the conference. Other than the ACC (who were +5 vs. seed), the Big 10 (+1 vs. seed) was one of the only other major conferences above expectation.

Pac 12 – B+. In the final season of the conference, they went 6-4 (with all 4 teams winning their first round games). With Colorado and Oregon both winning in the first round, they finished +1 over seed expectation, but with Arizona getting upset in the Sweet 16, I could not give them an A without a team in the Elite 8.

Atlantic 10 – B. Both Dayton and Duquesne won their first round games (+1 vs seeds). Any time the Atlantic 10 gets multiple teams to the second round is a good year, but can’t be better than a B without a Sweet 16 team.

West Coast – B. This is where their seed expectation would put them. But they got there by Gonzaga winning both games for the conference – since St. Mary’s was upset by Grand Canyon.

Mountain West – B. San Diego State led this team to a B by making the Sweet 16. Utah State (first round) and Colorado State (play-in) won games. None of the others were supposed to win based on seed and they didn’t. So, they were +1 based on seed, but I had a hard time giving a conference anything better than a B for a 4-6 record.

SEC – B-. This was the conference I had the hardest time seeding. They were supposed to win 12 games in the tournament, and they only won 8. Kentucky and Auburn losing in the first round were two of the biggest upsets in the tournament. But Alabama made it to their first Final 4, and Tennessee made it to the Elite 8 and came close against Purdue. So, this felt the right place for an 8-8 conference that had a few pleasant surprises and a few disappointments.

MID-MAJORS – C. This is the most awkward group to grade, because any win is above expectations (other than the 2 guaranteed play-in wins). So, going 6-22 is actually 4 games above expectations. Oakland, Grand Canyon, Yale and James Madison were exciting wins giving us hope. But with none of the Cinderella teams making the Sweet 16 (which does tend to happen despite what the expectations are by seed), I decided simply a passing grade was enough.

Conference USA – C-. FAU gave Northwestern a battle into overtime and UAB only lost by 4 to a San Diego State team that made the Sweet 16. But that still means they went 0-2. It didn’t seem fair to give them a D for two close losses, but couldn’t really give them much more since as the 8 seed, FAU was supposed to win the close game.

Big 12 – F. The Big 12 was supposed to be the best conference in college basketball. They were expected to win 14 games in the tournament and have 4 teams in the Sweet 16. Instead, only Houston and Iowa State got to the Sweet 16 (and both then got upset). BYU, TCU and Texas Tech lost in the first round. The conference ended up only going 7-8. According to seed, they lost 7 more games than they were supposed to – add into it being the only major conference outside of the Pac 12 that did not have an Elite 8 team and this has to be considered a failed season that looked like it would be full of opportunity.

Sydney Affolter made a layup while getting fouled and hit the free throw to cut the lead to 5.

But the next few possessions showed the impact of Kamilla Cardoso and Raven Johnson.

Addison O’Grady drove the lane for the Hawkeyes, but the South Carolina center blocked the shot. Then, off a missed shot by Johnson, Cardoso got the rebound and laid it in.

While Johnson struggled on offense, she excelled on defense. Down 8, Caitlin Clark decided to shoot a deep three from almost the logo – which is a testament of how closely Johnson guarded her.

Clark then got forced into a wild running shot as South Carolina cut off the pass to the wing. And at that point, the time was basically up. The Gamecocks from the free throw line managed to score the last 7 points of the game and win 87-75.

As is often the case with championship games, while the stars tend to shine, there is always an unexpected hero. Today, that was South Carolina freshman Tessa Johnson. The freshman scored a career-high 19 points from the bench to lead all scorers for South Carolina. All in all, it was South Carolina’s depth that might have won this game as their bench outscored Iowa’s 37-0.

The South Carolina Gamecocks finished off the perfect season, getting their revenge against the Hawkeyes to go 38-0 for the season, becoming the 10th team in history to go undefeated on the way to winning the national championship.

Congratulations to the South Carolina Gamecocks, the 2024 women’s basketball national champions!!!!

It has been a game of runs – but right now, South Carolina is on the most recent one. Three-pointers from Bree Hill and Tessa Johnson, and South Carolina’s defense has taken over.

Clark made a nice layup with about 4:44 to cut the lead to 2, but the Gamecocks would finish the 3rd quarter on a 11-4 run

10 minutes away from declaring the women’s national champion!!!

Iowa jumped out to a 10-0 lead to start the game. But South Carolina started off the second quarter on a 7-0 run to tie the game.

The stars have done what you would expect. Iowa’s Caitlin Clark had 21 points in the first half. Kamilla Cardoso had 11 points for South Carolina.

There have been a couple keys. Raven Johnson has played incredible defense on Clark in the second quarter, holding the star to 3 points in the second quarter after a hot start. This also included a steal at the end of the half as Clark was trying to run the clock out that led to a layup to make it 49-46.

South Carolina has dominated the boards – they already have 12 offensive rebounds, giving them multiple extra chances.

But maybe the biggest story is the South Carolina bench, as Sania Feagin, Milaysia Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson have outscored the Iowa bench 22-0.

South Carolina also has scored the first 6 points of the second half – so Iowa will need to do something to stop the Gamecocks’ momentum.

I have to admit – sleep took over last night. I had all these plans to blog all Sunday. And then I slept a good chunk of the day away. It was so nice to sleep.

So I am behind on my blog but excited for the women’s championship game!!!!

Caitlin Clark will try to cement her legacy by adding the one thing that has alluded her.

South Carolina will try to go undefeated while avenging their only loss in the last 2 seasons – a Final 4 loss to the Hawkeyes.

We have the player of the year against the most dominant team in women’s basketball. Should be a great game!!! And tip-off is minutes away!!!

Alabama gave it a decent try to stop the defending champions. Both teams went on 7-0 runs at some point to start the second half. With a little under 13 minutes to play, Grant Nelson hit a jumper to tie the game at 56.

But as the Huskies do, that was as close as Alabama was going to get. Stephon Castle got fouled after an offensive rebound and got two from the line, and then scored again on a jumper. Then, Samson Johnson got a dunk and Alex Karaban got a layup to quickly spread the lead to 8.

At this point, the teams would keep trading baskets to about the 3 minute mark as Karaban hit a three-pointer to make the lead 11, just to watch Mark Sears hit a super deep three-pointer to cut the lead back to 8.

Then, Donovan Clingan wrapped up the game. Tristen Newton found Clingan down low for a dunk to extend the lead to 10. Then, as Grant Nelson drove to the basket, Clingan blocked the shot to stop the Tide. And on the next possession Cam Spencer found Clingan in the post again for another dunk.

Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer would finish the game off with two three-pointers, and the Huskies won 86-72.

Alabama simply could not keep up their hot shooting from three-point range, and Clingan’s 4 blocks on defense made it difficult for the Tide to score points in the lane. Meanwhile, the Tide simply had no answer for the Huskies as all 5 starters scored in double digits, led by Castle’s 21 and Clingan’s 18 points.

It took a little bit longer than normal, but the Huskies still found a way to extend the lead to double digits by the end of the game. And now, they are one game away from defending their championship.

The only team left in their path in Zach Edey’s Purdue Boilermakers. One team that had everyone come back in order to try to get redemption from last year’s tournament. One team trying to keep what they won from last year’s tournament.

These teams have been on a collision course all season. UConn started the pre-season polls at 6th while the Boilers started at 3rd. UConn would only improve, staying in the top 5 all season including holding the top spot for 7 weeks. The Boilers never fell farther than 4th (after their loss to Northwestern) as they held the top spot for 5 weeks. So, if you exclude the pre-season poll, the two teams were at the top of the poll for 12 of the 19 weeks and the only 2 teams to stay in the top 5 for all 19 weeks. It should be a great championship game as both teams have proven they are the best two teams in college basketball.

The Lunatic will be excited to cheer on his Boilers on Monday night as they face the defending champion Huskies.

Alabama is doing everything possible to try to beat the UConn Huskies, and yet they are still down 4.

The pace of the game is exactly what Alabama wants. It has been a fast-paced hectic game with both teams running the ball down the court.

Alabama even jumped out to a 5 point lead with about 11 minutes in the half when Rylan Griffen made a three-pointer. But the Huskies quickly came back, running hard off defensive rebounds including a pretty upcourt pass by Tristen Newton to Donovan Clingan for a massive dunk. The teams kept trading baskets to about 5 minutes when Alabama’s Latrell Wrightsell Jr hit a three to give the Tide a lead just for the Huskies to come down the court and find Tristen Newton for a three to take the lead back.

The Huskies extended the lead to 7 as Cam Spencer hit a three-pointer and Donovan Clingan made a layup. But Mark Sears would hit a 3 pointer from the corner and an impressive scoop shot around Clingan at the buzzer to cut the Huskies lead to 44-40.

Alabama is doing everything they can at the moment. They actually shot 8-11 (72.7%) from three point range, and have the pace to be exactly what they want. But they have not had an answer for Stephon Castle who has 13 points.

It should be an exciting second half – here we go!!!

There were tons of nerve-wracking moments for the Lunatic. The Boilers jumped out to an early lead as Fletcher Loyer hit a three-pointer and Trey Kaufman-Renn hit a shot in the lane and a couple of free throws. But Purdue’s Braden Smith had a very uncharacteristic game – starting with 2 over and back turnovers. And NC State would settle down from the early start, led by DJ Horne.

There was then an unfortunate moment for the Wolfpack as Michael O’Connell off a steal drove to the basket and fell injuring his hamstring. I hated seeing it as I have remembered so many times where a Purdue player like Robbie Hummel went down with a non-contact injury. O’Connell did come back a couple of times but he was clearly not himself.

However, Jayden Taylor came in and played excellent defense. As did Ben Middlebrooks on Zach Edey as they managed to steal the ball from Edey multiple times without fouling him.

DJ Horne hit a couple of baskets to cut the lead to 3 points late in the first half, but Fletcher Loyer hit a huge three-pointer to end the half and give the Boilers a 6 point lead.

Lance Jones hit a three-pointer to lead the scoring for the 2nd half and the lead was back out to 9 points. But once again, Horne kept the Wolfpack in the game with a few baskets. This led into a very nervous time for the Lunatic as neither team could score for the next 2 1/2 minutes. Purdue would turn the ball over, but NC State couldn’t capitalize. Both teams were playing very solid defense.

Then, Zach Edey found Mason Gillis for a three pointer, and Braden Smith found Lance Jones for a three pointer. And the lead was back to double digits.

DJ Horne continued to try to chip away, as a jumper with 8 minutes made it a 49-42 game. But that was as close as the Wolfpack would get.

Over the next 5 minutes, Purdue would go on a 14-1 run, including two three pointers by Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith that put the game out of reach.

Zach Edey still led the Boilers with 20 points as so much of Purdue’s offense went through him, and Edey had a couple huge blocks on defense to keep the Wolfpack at bay. But it was a huge game from Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer, who managed to hit some key shots at moments when the Boilers had gone cold and you could send NC State was gaining some momentum.

I think the impressive thing was that Purdue found a different way to win. NC State only sent Edey to the line once. Purdue turned the ball over 16 times. Braden Smith only got 3 points.

But the Boilers won this game on the defensive side. DJ Horne was spectacular, scoring 21 points. But they really caused DJ Burns trouble when he only got 8 points – and the other 3 starters could only score 5 more points. The Wolfpack only were able to shoot 36.8% from the field (and only 26.3% from three-point range).

It was encouraging that one of Purdue’s stars could have a rough game, they had a ton of turnovers, and yet, they still found a way to win with defense. The Boilermakers are heading to the NCAA Championship game!!!!! And the Lunatic is so very happy!!!!

The Lunatic is going so crazy right now!!! I can not even express words that show how happy I am!!!!

It was not the prettiest of games but Purdue won 63-50 and is going to get to play on Monday night for the National Championship!

I will compose myself shortly to write about the game but for right now, I simply am going to enjoy this moment!!!!