Stomp The Lunatic

The Boilermakers found themselves down 10, and started to come back. They had made it a 2 point game with a little over 4 minutes when Houston missed a shot and in the fight for the rebound, a Cougar goes right over Caleb Furst to knock the ball out. It should have been an over-the-back penalty but it was called out on Furst. To rub salt in the wound, the replay showed that the ball actually last touched the knee of the Houston player but it wasn’t reviewable. And then LJ Cryer made a three-pointer off the new possession to extend the lead to 5.

Still, the Boilers had life in them. Braden Smith made a pretty pass to Trey Kaufman-Renn for a dunk to cut the lead to 3 with 2:20 to play. Then, the teams managed to stop each other multiple times. With under a minute to play, Houston was pushing Purdue all the way to half court, and so with the shot clock winding down, Smith desperately drives into the lane and kicks the ball out to the corner where Camden Heide hits a 3 pointer to tie the game.

With 34 seconds left, Houston decides to hold the ball as long as possible. Milos Uzan drives to the lane, and completely shoves Braden Smith out of the way to create space to shoot the ball with 5 seconds left, he misses his shot and as it looks like Camden Heide is in position for the rebound, Joseph Tugler jumps into him, the ball goes off Heide’s hand out-of-bounds, and it is Houston’s ball.

As they review who the ball goes off, the announcers are commenting on how it wasn’t an offensive foul on Uzan but since that is not reviewable, the ball is clearly off Heide.

And so 2.8 seconds left, and Milos Uzan passes the ball into the lane to Joseph Tugler, who immediately passes the ball back into Uzan who has just taken a step onto the court. And the Lunatic screams “NOOOOOO!!!!!!” as Uzan goes up for the layup to win the game for the Houston Cougars.

It is a shame because Purdue fought so hard in this game. And fought is the appropriate word as the Houston players ran them over time and time again as they crashed the offensive boards without any fouls against them. With all the contact that happened in the game, Houston only had 5 fouls called on them the entire second half.

At the end of the day, Houston had 16 offensive rebounds that typically led to points – and it was the final crashing of the boards (and the ridiculous non-call on the offensive foul on the drive) that led to them getting the ball out with 2.8 seconds to end Purdue’s season. It was a brutal way to finish the year, but I have to say that I was proud of how they played – they played their hearts out and ended up 1 second short.

So, all 8 favorites won in the Sweet 16. In 3 of the regions, we will see the #1 seed play the #2 seed. And in the one region where the #2 seed was eliminated, the #3 seed took its place.

While I am sad for my Boilers, you have to admit that it should be a great Elite 8. We have

• The SEC regular season champion
• The SEC tournament champion
• The Big 10 regular season champion
• The ACC regular season / tournament champion
• The Big 12 regular season / tournament champion
• The Big 12 second place team
• The other two SEC tournament semi-finalists who have been in the top 5-10 teams in the polls for most of the season.

Did not see much of it as I watch Milos Uzan bury my Boilermakers with three-pointers. But I know Michigan was up 48-39, and then the #1 seed in the South outscored the Wolverines 39-17 the rest of the way.

7 favorites have made their way to the Elite 8 – here is hoping Purdue can go on a last ditch run and end the streak.

Ole Miss had a double digit lead early in the first half, and an 8 point lead with about 12 minutes to play. But the Big 10 regular season champion fought back. With the game tied and about 1:30 left in the game, senior Jaden Akins drove to the basket with the shot clock running down, and he hit the runner in the lane to give the Spartans a 2 point lead.

Dre Davis missed a jumper from with about a minute to play, got the rebound but could not put the put-back in. On the next possession, Tre Holloman started to make a drive to the basket, drew the defense to him, and found a wide-open Carson Cooper for a layup and a 4 point lead.

Sean Pedulla quickly sprinted down the court and hit a jumper near the lane to cut the lead to 2 points with 33.6 seconds left. As I was thinking during the Ole Miss timeout that they have to try to trap a little and then foul, but they can’t let Michigan State take the clock down to 4 seconds, a pivotal play happened.

The official gave the ball to the Spartans, and based on the Lunatic rewinding and timing, took 5.9 seconds to get the ball in-bounds. Instead of being a turnover, Ole Miss had to foul Jaden Akins who got an outlet pass at mid-court. The senior calmly made the two free throws, and Michigan State was up by 4 again.

The Rebels tried to quickly get the ball down to score, but Jaemyn Brakefield missed a dunk after an athletic drive to the hoop. Fortunately, Pedulla was there to get the rebound and once again cut the lead to 2 points with the layup.

This time, the Spartans get the ball in on time, and Tre Holloman was sent to the line. And Holloman calmly drilled both free throws. Pedulla made a nice stop-drive at the top of the key to get a good look for a three-pointer with 6 seconds, but it missed giving the ball back to the Spartans.

Holloman would hit two more free throws to ice the game, and Matthew Murrell hit a three-pointer from the logo at the buzzer to annoy betters across the country who had the Spartans -3.5 points. But Michigan State spot in the Elite 8 did not matter on the spread – 3 points was enough to send the Spartans to the South regional final.

While I typed this, Tennessee won 78-65 to get revenge on the Kentucky Wildcats, who swept the Volunteers during the regular season. But it is tough to beat a good team three times in the same season, and Tennessee jumped out early and never looked back.

6 games now have seen 2 #1 seeds, 3 #2 seeds and a #3 seed (who was the favorite). If we are going to see an upset in the Elite 8, it is going to have to happen from one of the Big 10 teams playing in the late games, and it will have to happen against either the SEC regular season champion or the Big 12 regular season champion.

The Lunatic is already nervous and freaking out. I have changed from my nice clothes to go out to listen to a string quartet to my Purdue quarter-zip. I have my old Purdue soda mug from when I was a freshman at Tarkington Hall. I am ready!!!!
BOILER UP!!!!!

So back in February, my wife Elizabeth said there is this cool show where they are going to have a string quartet play songs from the TV show Bridgerton by Candlelight. It is at 6:30 pm on Friday at the end of March and should be relatively show (since there is a second show). She said she knows Katie will love it but it is during basketball season.

While I have never seen Bridgerton like Elizabeth and Katie have, I can’t resist good music. And then Purdue made the Sweet 16 and I panicked.

But then I saw that we play at 10:00 pm – I have never been so happy to have my Boilermakers play in the last game of the evening.

So, Elizabeth, Katie and I will enjoy a string quartet in a few minutes, and then I will stress out as Purdue plays Houston!!!! For the rest of you, enjoy the remaining games of the Sweet 16 as Michigan State and Ole Miss will tip off in just 40 minutes.

So, overtime was a lot of battling back and forth for the lead. But with about 1:40 to play, JT Toppin drove the lane and hit a close jumper to give the Red Raiders a 3 point lead. But after a timeout, Arkansas found Trevon Brazile all alone at the top of the key for a three pointer to tie it for the Razorbacks.

Texas Tech went right back to their All-American and JT Toppin delivered with another drive into the lane. But DJ Wagner would once again tie the game with a layup of his own. Back and forth. Back and forth. Only 34 seconds left.

Texas Tech winds the clock down and gets the ball to Darrion Williams, the hero who tied the game. And Williams drove to the hoop and made the layup to put the Red Raiders up 2 points. Arkansas’ last ditch fadeaway shot to try to tie the game came up short and Texas Tech survives and advances. All 4 favorites continued the trend of the chalk winning, but it sure ended with a fantastic game.

As for the pool, Debbe Evans and Scott Grimes still hold a 10 point lead over Ashley Peterson, and a 20 point lead over Amy Lacks and both of Andrea Zimmerman’s picks.

In the Upset Pool, Ashley Peterson holds an 18 point lead over Scott Grimes and a 28 point lead over Debbe Evans.

In the Second Chance Pool, we have 50 people who picked all 4 favorites and thus are tied for the lead at 160 points. For all of our sanity, I will simply congratulate everyone instead of trying to type everyone’s name.

Four more exciting games on Friday.

• Big 10 champ Michigan State vs 6 seed Ole Miss
• SEC rivals Tennessee and Kentucky play for a third time
• SEC champ Auburn plays Big 10 tournament champ Michigan
• And of course, Big 12 champion Houston takes on Purdue.

BOILER UP!!!

Of course it happens on the last game of the night. While Duke was busy holding off Arizona, in a region where the four teams combined averaged 98.5 points, the drama was all happening in San Francisco.

Arkansas was up 16 points, and up 10 points with 4 minutes to play, but Texas Tech has made a furious charge. Christian Anderson hit three three-pointers to cut the lead to 3 and Darrion Williams hit a three pointer with 10 seconds to tie the game. Arkansas’ DJ Wagner missed his drive and fadeaway jumper and we will play more basketball!!!!

The BYU Cougars scored 88 points tonight. On any given night, you would expect to be either winning or in a one-possession game with a total like that.

The BYU Cougars lost tonight by 25 points!!!!!!!

Alabama shot 25-51 from three-point range as they unloaded for 113 points. What makes that even crazier is their leader Mark Sears, who had 34 points off 10 three-pointers (one off the individual record) sat for the last 4 minutes since the game was so wrapped up.

The 25 three pointers made is a tournament record. The 51 three pointers shot is a tournament record. The Crimson Tide coasted their way to a huge victory.

If the Tide shoot like that, they will be the 2025 national champions. That was one of the most dominating performances I have seen. Sure, they might face some tougher defenses later in the tournament – but BYU is a really good team, and the Crimson Tide scored 113 points while resting some of their starters over the last 4 minutes.

Meanwhile, the Florida Gators are up 17 points on Maryland with 2 minutes to play. So, the Sweet 16 has been very sweet for the SEC.

So excited that the Sweet 16 has begun – and starting off with Alabama vs BYU which could be a first team to 100 game. Lots of scoring – lots of fun!!!

Congratulations go out to Illinois State as they beat Cleveland State by 11 down in Daytona Beach to win the championship game of the CBI Tournament.

Also, while we are at it, we should also congratulate Loyola-Chicago who beat Kent State by 10 and UC-Irvine who beat UAB in overtime to join Chattanooga and North Texas in the NIT semi-finals next week in Indianapolis.

Have to also mention that North Texas couldn’t host their game against Oklahoma State because their was a staff appreciation event being hosted in their arena. I can’t even imagine how something like that happens. There isn’t another place or time they can move the staff event?

Oh well – must get some sleep. The Sweet 16 is almost here!!!

So – now that I have picked based on my heart instead of my logic or my statistics, it only makes sense to know what the model would have done (and you can see why I didn’t use it).

In the first round, I will also show you how my very basic model that predicts the margin does compared to the Vegas lines (which I also might have tended to ignore on my handicapping – maybe that is why I do great on the over/unders and horrible on the spreads).

SWEET 16 – model predicts all 8 favorites

• Auburn (-8.5) over Arizona – model predicts Auburn by 8.8
• Michigan State (-3.5) over Ole Miss – model predicts Michigan State by 3.8
• Florida (-6.5) over Maryland – model predicts Florida by 3.9
• Texas Tech (-5.5) over Arkansas – model predicts Texas Texas by 6.3
• Duke (-9) over Arizona – model predicts Duke by 7.4
• Alabama (-5.5) over BYU – model predicts Alabama by 5.9
• Houston (-8) over Purdue – model predicts Houston by 8.7
• Tennessee (-4.5) over Kentucky – model predicts Tennessee by 3

ELITE 8 – all the favorites win

• Auburn beats Michigan State by 6.5
• Florida beats Texas Tech by 4.2
• Duke beats Alabama by 4.8
• Houston beats Tennessee by 3.7

FINAL 4

• Auburn beats Florida by 1.5
• Duke beats Houston by 2.3

CHAMPIONSHIP

• Duke beats Auburn by 1.6

I just can’t pick the favorites all the way through. I am sure there is some creative way to pick some upsets based on lines that are close (such as picking Ole Miss, Maryland and Kentucky based on the model thinking the line is with 4 points) – but what is the right value – is it 2 points, 3 points, 4 points, whatever gives me 4 upsets, etc.

So, for those of you looking for some statistical help in the future rounds, my simple model is within a point of 5 of the 8 games, so it gives a decent guide. Of course, we don’t play the games on paper……

Anyways, enjoy the statistics and of course, the games, and good luck with your picks.