Stomp The Lunatic

There are 22 games today. 12 conference tournaments will claim their automatic bid, while 5 conferences will play their semi-finals to play for their title tomorrow in one of the most agonizingly nerve-wracking parts of March. There is enough pressure on these games as it is with an invitation to the tournament on the line, but the Selection Committee has already made most of their decisions by Sunday, so what happens in a conference like the American if a favorite loses. The committee says they create contingency brackets – but the bias involved in that has to be strong. Anyways, lets worry about today. I am going to list out all 22 games – because that is what a Lunatic would do. Not going to comment on them all – but at least you know when and where the games are. Lets start with the power conferences – with the championships coming first.

• Big 12 – 6 pm (ESPN) – #2 Houston vs. Arizona – the Wildcats upset #9 Texas Tech on Friday to get to the championship. The Cougars should be safe as a 1 seed – but obviously, they want to show they are the best team in the Big 12.
• Big East – 6:30 pm (FOX) – #6 St. John’s vs Creighton – the Bluejays knocked off the two time national champions, while the Red Storm ran away from Marquette in the second half. I think St. John’s analytical rankings will hold them back for a chance at the last 1 seed, but I guess there is still a small chance for them to move up.
• ACC – 8:30 pm (ESPN) – #1 Duke vs #13 Louisville – in the first half against UNC, Duke showed they are more than just Cooper Flagg before having to hang on to win by 3. Meanwhile, the Cardinals managed to take a big lead on Clemson and then also hang on by 3. Will be interesting to see how the #1 team in the country does without their star player against a ranked team.

SEC semi-finals (both games on ESPN):

• 1 pm – #8 Tennessee vs. #3 Auburn – do the Volunteers still have an outside chance at a 1 seed – the SEC tournament has set up perfectly for a champion outside of Auburn to claim the other bid. (I suspect Duke, Auburn and Houston are safe).
• 3:30 pm – #4 Florida vs #5 Alabama – the Crimson Tide are asking the same question the Vols are. And obviously the Gators is trying to hang on to the last 1 seed. Both of these games deserve to be a final and might be the best games of the day – the fact that they are semis show how amazing the SEC is this year.

Big 10 semi-finals (both games on CBS / Paramount+)

• 1 pm – #7 Michigan State vs. #18 Wisconsin – it is unclear to me if the Spartans can get to the top line – but they will have to play against a very dangerous Badgers team to try to prove it.
• 3:30 pm – #11 Maryland vs #22 Michigan – can the Wolverines keep defying expectations by winning games. Both the Terps and Wolverines looked unbeatable in their quarterfinals so should be a great game.

NON POWER CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS – in order of when they come on TV. I am not going to comment on every game but will point out a couple interesting ones. I think the teams with asterisks by them are the current teams I have listed as favorites in my bracketology page – things might have changed in some of the semi-finals on Friday.

• 11 am (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – AMERICA EAST – Bryant* (22-11) vs Maine (20-13)
• 1 pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – MEAC – Norfolk State* (23-10) vs South Carolina State (20-12)
• 6 pm (CBS) – MOUNTAIN WEST – Colorado State (24-9) vs Boise State (24-9) – What a really big game – because nothing makes sense in the Mountain West. Both Colorado State and Boise State were in the bubble conversation going into the week – so is making the title game enough. The Broncos have beaten both San Diego State and regular-season champion New Mexico to get here. The Rams beat Nevada and upset Utah State based on NET ranking last night. The NET ranking says the favorite should be Boise State (but to be fair, the NET was wrong on both of Friday’s semi-finals). The conference standings say 2nd place Colorado State should be the favorite, as well as the fact that the Rams swept Boise State in both regular season games. Of course, it is hard to beat a good team three times in a season. So glad the games are not played on paper, and that we can simply watch these two really good teams play for a guaranteed spot in the tournament (and of course, the Mountain West championship trophy).
• 7:30 pm (ESPNU / ESPN+)- MAAC – Iona (17-16) vs. Mt St. Mary’s (21-12) – Iona knocked off regular-season Quinnipac and Mt. St. Mary’s responded by taking out 2nd place Merrimack. Will eventually have to update my bracketology.
• 7:40 pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – MAC – Akron* (27-6) vs. Miami OH (25-8) – the MAC always puts up dangerous teams in March, so it should be a great game between the conferences’ top two teams.
• 8:30 pm (CBS Sports Network) – CONFERENCE USA – Liberty* (27-6) vs. Jacksonville State (22-11) – The Flames are a top 65 NET ranking team, but have not played a single Quad 1 opponent all season. They will need to beat the Gamecocks to make the tournament.
• 9:30 pm (ESPNU / ESPN+) – SWAC – Jackson State (16-17) vs. Alabama State (18-15)
• 9:30 pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – BIG WEST – UC San Diego* (29-4) vs. UC Irvine (28-5) – this is certainly the best game of the day of two teams most people have no heard about. But these are two great basketball teams. UC San Diego has a NET ranking of 35 – and they also have a road victory against Utah State. UC Irvine has a NET ranking of 60 – but their only quad 1 game (and victory) is a road win against the Tritons. Of course, the Tritons got a second Quad 1 win when they returned the favor and beat the Anteaters in Irvine. Whenever you get to watch two teams that have won 28+ games (and have split their regular season games), you know that you are going to get to watch a fantastic game. The only unfortunate reality is that the team who loses tonight likely will miss out on the NCAA Tournament.
• 11:30 pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – WAC – Utah Valley* (25-7) vs. Grand Canyon (25-7) – if you do decide to stay up for the last game of the day, it should be a good one. It might not have two 28+ win teams in the top 60 of the NET like the Big West conference before it, but the top two teams from the WAC both being 25 win teams is a pretty appropriate way to finish Championship Saturday.

Atlantic 10 semi-finals (both games on CBS Sports Network)

• 1 pm – VCU* (26-6) vs Loyola-Chicago (22-10) – this is probably the biggest games on the bubble since all the remaining power conference teams have a cemented place in the tournament. The Rams probably need to at a minimum make it to the championship so this is a critical game. Their NET suggests that they are safe. What the committee did to Indiana State last year suggests that they are not safe. Hoping the local Richmond team takes the decision out of the committee’s hands by winning two more games this weekend.
• 3:30 pm – George Mason (25-7) vs. St. Joseph’s (22-11) – the Patriots are co-champions in the Atlantic 10, but their NET ranking doesn’t put them in the same category as VCU. They are very capable of continuing to win and claiming the A-10 title.

American semi-finals (both games on ESPN2 / ESPN+)

• 3 pm – #16 Memphis* (27-5) vs Tulane (19-13) – this is the second biggest bubble game of the day, but for a different reason. The Tigers as the #16 team in the country are safer than VCU. Which means if they get upset by Tulane today (or in the championship Sunday), the bubble will shrink by one to get the Tigers into the field.
• 5 pm – North Texas (24-7) vs UAB (21-11) – North Texas has a decent NET ranking at 59 but no Quad 1 wins, and if they get one this weekend, it will mean they have the automatic bid, so they really need to keep winning.

Ivy semi-finals (11 am on ESPNU, 2 pm on ESPNEWS – both on ESPN+)

• 11 am – Yale* (20-7) vs Princeton (19-11)
• 2 pm – Cornell (17-10) vs Dartmouth (14-13)

22 games to decide 12 automatic bids for the NCAA Tournament – Championship Saturday is here!!!! Enjoy a fantastic day of college hoops!

I am not even going to watch the last 4 minutes as we are down 16. Michigan has played with more intensity and have had a great balanced attack. We simply can’t guard anyone.

Oh well – still enjoyed my apple pie and pizza. It wasn’t a bad Pi day – other than Purdue losing.

After being up until 2 am yesterday, I am going to use the blowout loss as an opportunity to get some rest. Have lots of analysis to do for my bracketology tomorrow.

A small note – I did make a change to the stats which will be introduced when I pull Friday’s games. I changed the offensive and defensive ratings to be based on pts per possession vs. simply adjusted margin. While it is not exactly the same as some of the other analytics (since I don’t know their way of adjusting for schedule), the numbers are at least closer to what the committee will see (which I hope will help me tomorrow with my analysis). I also added a pace statistic to show whether a team plays faster or slower.

Saturday should be a fun day – with the exception of the 10 semi-final games from the SEC, Big 10, Atlantic 10, Ivy and American, the other 12 games will watch the winner go to the NCAA Tournament. Enjoy the games tomorrow!!!!

The Tar Heels got my message at half time – but the Tar Heels fought all the way back to being down from as many as 24 points to the down just 1 point with a chance to take the lead at the end of the game.

Ven-Allen Lubin took the ball strongly to the hoop and was fouled with 4 seconds. It was a shame the foul was called because one of his teammates had tipped the rebound in. But it would get much worse.

Lubin missed the first free throw but made the second one to seemingly tie the game. Except the referee blew his whistle. Jae’Lyn Withers stepped into the lane early before the free throw was shot for a lane violation. Instead of trying to defend to send the game to overtime, they had to foul to extend the game.

Kon Knueppel made both free throws for Duke, and Lubin’s fade-away three-pointer at the buzzer missed and the Blue Devils hung on to make the ACC championship game. Now, the Tar Heels have to anxiously wait two days to see if they will make the tournament. Tough break for UNC.

Well, my Boilers are down 5 but it is early. Maybe eating some pie will help.

So, the North Carolina Tar Heels have a huge opportunity tonight. They have done what they were supposed to do to make the ACC semi-finals. Many would have expected seeing #1 Duke as their opponent would be the end of the road – but then the Blue Devils lost two key players to injury. Suddenly, they have a wide open path to taking the decision out of the committee’s hands.

So, what is that you do not do in this situation? Lose your composure so badly that you let the Blue Devils score the last 15 points of the half. Duke appears to be determined to show that they are more than Cooper Flagg – and you can tell that they are playing with more enthusiasm, and it has the Tar Heels rattled.

There is still another half to play, but UNC finds themselves down 21 to the number 1 team in the country. That is not the impression they were trying to make tonight

I just have to remind everyone – it’s PI Day. While some of us math nerds know the mathematical constant to more digits, 3/14 leads to fun celebrations in the math world – typically involving eating some type of pie, ranging from desserts to pizza. Of course, as Elizabeth reminded me, this is only the second best mathematical constant day. Mole day (10/23) will always have a special place in our hearts.

Last night was great because Katie was apparently memorizing the constant to 20 digits to win a piece of pie at her school. For all the times that my daughter jokingly calls me a nerd for all my basketball stats, she might be horrified to know that at this moment, she knows more digits of pi than I do.

But since I have a computer in front of me, for those who want to test yourself (I only remember the classic first 6). According to math.com, it is 3.14159265358979323846 (it goes further if you really want to party with numbers).

The college basketball world decided to celebrate by having 22 of the top 25 teams in the country play in their various conference tournaments. You simply can not go wrong today – grab a piece of pie and enjoy some amazing athletes take a round ball and throw it through a circle (which by the way is about 56.55 inches – the 18 inch diameter multiplied by the number we are celebrating).

So I have a pizza pie for dinner, a no sugar added apple pie for dessert and lots of basketball to watch – happy Pi day!!!

I am not sure how conscious I will be in the morning, so might as well get the viewing guide done over the last 4 minutes of the Utah State game.

To be fair, almost everything is a big game on Friday. SEC and Big 10 are still in their quarterfinals, but the other major conferences are to their semi-finals, so all the games should be pretty good.

The top 4 teams in the ACC will battle on Friday – UNC will try to take advantage of Flagg’s injury as they take on their rivals #1 Duke at 7 pm. Then, #10 Clemson will play #13 Louisville in the 9:30 pm semi-final with a chance to improve their seeding.

The Big East also has their top 4 teams battling as #25 Marquette will try to upset regular season champion #6 St. John’s at 6:30 pm. Then at 9 pm, defending national champions Connecticut will play Creighton – should be a great night of basketball at Madison Square Garden.

The seeds held form in the Big 12 as well. #2 Houston will defend their regular season championship against #17 BYU at 7 pm, followed by #9 Texas Tech taking on Arizona. The games should be great, even if it is being played on the ridiculous court they created in Kansas City.

The Big 10 tournament should be some great matchups. #7 Michigan State kicks things off in Indianapolis at Noon against #23 Oregon. Then, #18 Wisconsin will play UCLA (the only non-ranked team left). And then in the evening games, we will have #11 Maryland against #24 Illinois and #20 Purdue vs. #22 Michigan. I have to say, it is pretty amazing that in these four power conferences, how the top teams keep advancing.

The SEC tournament will continue to be wild as their top 4 seeds will enter the chaos. Their lineup is #3 Auburn vs Ole Miss, #8 Tennessee vs Texas, #4 Florida vs #21 Missouri, and #5 Alabama vs #15 Kentucky – if these games are anywhere close to as good as the ones today, it should be an incredible day of basketball in Nashville.

The mid-majors also have some key games. VCU kicks off their Atlantic 10 tournament in a tough quarterfinal against St. Bonaventure at 11:30 am. #16 Memphis also has a somewhat difficult opener in the American quarterfinals against Wichita State. UC San Diego plays in the Big West semi-finals vs. Santa Barbara. And then of course, there is the Mountain West. They don’t start until 9:30 pm, but they have two great games in Las Vegas as New Mexico plays Boise State, and Utah State plays Colorado State.

So – as I said – you can’t miss no matter what conference tournament you decide to watch. All the games should be awesome!

I can’t decide if I should be thanking my Boilermakers or not. The game kind of got me all riled up as they were in a ridiculously close game against USC that basically got won when a pretty soft foul was called with 28 seconds left on an inbounds play to Trey Kaufman-Renn. The Boilermakers’ big man hit both free throws to give Purdue a 2 point lead, and then had a good defensive stop on a shot from Desmond Claude and a turnover as everyone was slipping to the floor. So, certainly not pretty, but Purdue survived. It is almost 1 am as I am finally winding down, so not happy that I stayed up so late when exhausted. But at the end of the day, it allowed me to clean up pieces of the website – so add to it a Purdue victory leads me to being pretty happy.

The long awaited box scores / schedule / net rankings Excel file has finally been loaded to the website. If you go to the Research link on the menu, you will see that the 2025 Schedule File is now available. The typical disclaimer is there. My process checks to see that the records (by site and by quad) match what is on the NCAA NET Rankings page. For those of you who wonder why I do this each year, here is the brief story Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games – some with tons of success. Bill Kahn had been near the top of the standings multiple years by building Bradley-Terry models. And our 2006 champion, David Shaddick, won by using a model he created with this data for a stats training course at work for analysts. At the end of the day, good statistical techniques can be used to do a great job of forecasting the game – even if it doesn’t capture all the strange possibilities that can happen. As always, if you notice any issues with the data, please let me know!!! Enjoy the data!!!

I also was able to be awake enough to fix the tags on my bracketology page – it isn’t pretty like I want it – but it at least is readable again (as a joke, I should have posted it so people could see how bad it got). Anyways, I need a starting point for the rankings, and so I came up with a method to list the teams that still have a chance (along with all the automatic bids). At this point, we won’t see any more conference championships decided until Saturday – when the majority of the games will send a team to the tournament.

I look up from my blogging to see a wild finish. The Kentucky Wildcats found themselves up 12 points with 4 minutes to play. But the Oklahoma Sooners started chipping away. Still, with 40 seconds left the Wildcats had a 6 point lead. Then, Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears took over. Fears hit a three-pointer to cut the lead to 3, then stole the ball as the Sooners pressed and passed it to Jalon Moore for a dunk to cut the lead to 1. Then, the Wildcats continued to struggle with the press and Fears stole the ball again. Fears settled down the team into their half court offense, drove the lane and made a pretty layup to give the Sooners a lead with 6 seconds left. Unfortunately, there was still 6 seconds left. Kentucky passed the ball into Otega Oweh who streaked up the court all the way to the baseline, cut to the hoop, and shot a floater that hit the rim, rolled a little, and fell in the net to crush the Sooners comeback at the buzzer.

The entire SEC has been wild today – which makes sense out of the toughest conference. Ole Miss hit a buzzer beater to knock off Arkansas by 3. And Texas continued their desperation run by knocking off rivals Texas A&M in double overtime. The only game that didn’t finish as a one possession game was the Missouri vs. Mississippi State game – and even though the Tigers won by 12, it was a 2 point game with only 4 minutes left before they ran away in the final minutes.

Duke fans are extremely nervous as they watched Cooper Flagg leave with a scary ankle sprain and Malik Brown leave after dislocating his shoulder. They did still beat Georgia Tech by 8 but it is not clear if Flagg or Brown will be able to play when the games matter so much more next week.

There were bubble teams that advanced their cause – such as North Carolina who held off Wake Forest. There were a lot of bubble teams who lost in one possession game – such as Xavier’s 2 point loss to Marquette, Baylor’s 2 point loss to Texas Tech and SMU’s 3 point loss to Clemson. And there were a few teams like Indiana and Kansas that were hoping to make a statement in the conference tournament only to watch as their opponents (Oregon and Arizona) ran away late.

I joked in my viewing guide that hopefully I won’t be awake for the nightowl game between Utah State and UNLV. Well, the Aggies are up 8 with 4 minutes to play – really wasn’t expecting to be still awake. I am so tired, yet very content. The NCAA data is ready, I have a starting point for my bracketology, the site is somewhat caught up, and Purdue won. The Lunatic will sleep happily tonight.

I didn’t see it – but apparently the Duke star injured his ankle while grabbing a rebound. That could be a huge development if he is out for any amount of time. Will be interested to see what the report on his injury is after the game.

The Lunatic is happy that he gets to watch his Boilers play tonight as they open their Big Ten tournament against USC. Can’t decide if it is a blessing or curse that we got the 9 pm game – won’t conflict with work but it also makes for a long night – welcome to March for the Lunatic. We should also congratulate Montana for beating Northern Colorado to claim the Big Sky title late last night.

Honestly, if you can’t find a game to watch today, you are simply not trying (or don’t have access to the SEC Network). With all 5 power conferences playing their 2nd rounds or quarterfinals, there are plenty of great games to choose from. Since I only have a few minutes to blog, I will try to pick out the best.

In the Noon games, the best game is #12 Iowa State vs #17 BYU. But as the bubble is concerned, there are two good ones between Indiana and Oregon, or Arkansas and Ole Miss. The Hoosiers and Razorbacks really could use another win to feel comfortable about their chances.

In the middle afternoon games, we go to the Big East where #25 Marquette plays Xavier. For those looking for bubble teams, an interesting one in the ACC between North Carolina and Wake Forest sticks out as the Tar Heels need a victory but Wake Forest is better than what their NET ranking says. There is also Texas and Texas A&M – rivalry game in one the Longhorns have to win could be super exciting (and emotional).

In the early evening / late afternoon games, I would check out the Mountain West where Boise State plays San Diego State (6 pm). It is unclear how many Mt West schools will make it – but thus will show you the talent that exists out west. The other games that stuck out to me is Baylor vs #9 Texas Tech as the Bears try to cement their bid, and #13 Louisville vs Stanford – mainly since you don’t normally see a power conference team with 20 wins and not be in the Top 80 of the NET. It honestly makes me wonder if the NET score is a little broken (actually we probably can make that argument simply by noticing that Big East champion St John’s is 16th in the NET.

For the late games, while I might be watching my Boilers, you really can’t go wrong with any of them. I would have to say Oklahoma vs Kentucky is the most important one, but #10 Clemson vs SMU looking to claim a Quad 1 victory is also critical. And Villanova vs UConn and a rematch from last Saturday’s Kansas vs Arizona game should also be great.

And if you are going to stay up past midnight, the My West has you covered with Utah State taking on UNLV in Las Vegas. Here is hoping that I am happily dreaming of Purdue players winning by that point….

Enjoy the games.

Well, I got home late from work today – not making it home until after 7 pm. It apparently shows. After dinner, I figured I would work on my bracketology for a while. I was going to watch the Georgia vs. Oklahoma game simply to realize I don’t get the games on the SEC Network. So annoyed at that.

Well, I kept going on the bracketology – to formulate my final version of the bubble. Was annoyed at the teams that might make it in that probably are not worthy of a bid. Still not a fan of a 6-12 SEC team making it in the tournament, but after looking at the bubble, I sadly believe it could happen.

Of course, when I finished the page – my formatting of my bracketology page got all messed up to the point that I can’t publish it.

With it being after 11 pm, I am fading fast and haven’t even been able to validate my box scores. So much to do – and so little time.

I will mention this – which might add to my disgust of this year’s bubble.

In the SEC, Vanderbilt lost to Texas making the conference even more confusing. It will get worse if Oklahoma can beat Georgia in the game I can not watch – its a two point game with about 9 to play. Ohio State, West Virginia and Cincinnati all lost.

It wasn’t all bad for the bubble – North Carolina won their game by 20. Baylor won by 14. But the Lunatic doesn’t know that he can make it much longer before slumber overtakes him. So, before going to bed, have to at least congratulate McNeese and American – who punched their tickets to the dance with victories in the conference finals.