Stomp The Lunatic

As I mentioned before, my bracketology and handicapping pages were messed up when my WordPress sites crashed. And with all my focus last week on creating a bracket, I neglected figuring out how I would set up my handicapping page. And since my personal bracket got two teams wrong, it didn’t even do well for all that research.

Loyal readers – don’t fret. The Lunatic is here to handicap the games poorly – although I tend to be pretty accurate on the over/unders – maybe this will be the year where things switch and I get the games right and the totals wrong. Who knows?

But here is the problem – no one is going to believe a handicapping page when the picks come out after the games start. And I am still trying to figure out how to set up that page. So, under the chances that I can’t figure it out, the picks need to still happen – and so we can do that in the main blog for a little bit.

Normal disclaimers apply. This is just for fun. If you are thinking of using these for your own gambling, you probably should not. I have never walked out of a Vegas Sportsbook with more money than I came in with – so the only possible way these picks are successful is if money is not riding on it.

6:40 pm – 16 seed Howard (-3.5) vs 16 seed Wagner. O/U: 128.5

Neither team did particularly well as their top victories are in the 150+ of NET. But Howard had some competitive games against Cincinnati and Georgia Tech – so I think they are the slightly better team. That being said, Wagner plays at a very slow pace and add the pressure of the tournament could lead to a low scoring game.

Picks: Howard (30). Under (20)

9:10 pm – 10 seed Colorado State (-2.5) vs 10 seed Virginia O/U: 120.5

Virginia is one of those teams that I don’t think the metrics look favorably at. They had a few games where they lost big that effect their efficiency rankings. But they were the 3rd place team in the ACC. Its crazy to me that we could take the 3rd place team from the ACC and get 2.5 points against a Mountain West team that tied for 6th. The only thing that stops me from locking this is the Cavaliers amazing ability to go ice cold.

Picks: Virginia (20). Under (20)

Let the games begin!

Ken Pomeroy is one of the premier statisticians in the college basketball analytics world, and so it makes sense that people have research how his model has done over time.

My understanding is that every champion since his model came out in 2002 has had an offensive efficiency ranking in the top 40 and a defensive efficiency ranking in the top 25. So lets see who that narrows the field down to…..we will list their offensive and defensive ranking in parentheses.

– Houston (17, 2)

– Tennessee (29, 3)

– Auburn (10, 4)

– North Carolina (24, 6)

– Connecticut (1, 11)

– Arizona (8, 12)

– Marquette (21, 19)

– Purdue (4, 21)

– Creighton (12, 24)

Should probably not be a surprise that these are basically teams in the top 3 seeds.

If you are looking for any near misses.

On the defensive side, you have Duke (7, 26), Nebraska (36, 30) and Nevada (40, 36)

On the offensive side, you have New Mexico (41, 23) and St. Mary’s (45, 16).

And of course, the top efficiency margin teams to miss on this are 5th Iowa St (55, 1), 10th Illinois (3, 93), 13th Alabama (2, 112), 14th Baylor (6, 64) and 15th Gonzaga (9, 46)

The entry form has been set up and the bracket is now available on the site for you to enter your picks. Welcome to the 2024 Stomp the Lunatic contest!!!!

I have updated the research page with an Excel spreadsheet that has all the summaries of every game as well as the NET rankings. But for those of you looking not to do a ton of analysis, the ever popular cheat sheet is also available on the research page!

Reminder, you can not use your login from previous years. You must register to enter the 2024 contest. Also, I have been told that sometimes, if you don’t refresh the page, you can end up with an old set of links (I can’t seem to recreate that issue to try to fix it but I believe that it does happen. We will just chalk it up to the fact that I am not really a web designer.

If you have any questions about the pool, rules, where to send entry fees, please contact me at thomas@tehodgson.com

Good luck to everyone in STOMPING THE LUNATIC!!!!

We all know about Purdue’s history in March. I also was so disappointed about losing to Wisconsin that I completely forgot to congratulate Zach Edey on breaking the Purdue record for career points. He passed Rick Mount’s record of 2,323 points from 1967-1979. Currently, Edey has 2,339 career points – so congratulations on that achievement.

Of course, I am sure that if you ask Edey, there is only one prize that he is interested in – the NCAA National Championship. So that brings us to the nervousness of the Lunatic – as I created my imaginary bracket prediction, there is something that caught my eye as my Boilers likely will be a 1 seed.

One of the 6 teams I had as a 16 seed was none other than St. Peter’s. So the Lunatic is nervously hoping that after our well documented bad luck against schools from New Jersey, that we don’t find a re-match against the double digit seed that ended our Sweet 16 two years ago.

Please Selection Committee- be kind to my Boilers. Just 10 more minutes – the Lunatic is ready (well as ready as he is going to be).

I was really kind of disappointed with how the imaginary committee worked out. So here is based off mine.

1 – Connecticut, Houston, Purdue, UNC

2 – Iowa St, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette

3 – Creighton, Auburn, Illinois, Baylor

4 – Kentucky, Duke, St. Marys, Kansas

5 – Gonzaga, Alabama, Wisconsin, BYU

6 – South Carolina, Texas Tech, San Diego St, Utah St

7 – Florida, Washington St, Nevada, Boise St

8 – Dayton, Texas, Nebraska, New Mexico

9 – Clemson, Colorado St, Michigan St, Colorado

10 – St. John’s, Northwestern, Pitt / TCU, FAU / Texas A&M

11 – Drake, NC State, Oregon, Grand Canyon

12 – James Madison, McNeese St, Duquesne, UAB

13 – Samford, Yale, Charleston, Vermont

14 – Akron, Oakland, Colgate, Morehead St

15 – Western Kentucky, Long Beach St, Stetson, Longwood

16 – South Dakota St, St. Peter’s, Montana St/Howard, Grambling/Wagner

FIRST FOUR OUT – Providence, Virginia, Seton Hall, Mississippi St

NEXT FOUR OUT – Kansas St, Villanova, Oklahoma, Indiana St

Well – I am relatively sure this will be a disaster. I spent so much time trying to create models that I really didn’t pay attention much to actual resumes until late last night and today. But I managed to come up with a crazy complex method to do this that will allow me to over-analyze how I did this for longer than I would like to admit.

All the models have flaws in them. I wish I had a longer amount of time to figure out how to make adjustments for this week. For example, a team like Arizona or Purdue might drop a couple spots in the polls for losing in their semi-finals – but I have to take what the polls said at the time. I already have fears about the process – since it as Houston as the #1 seed – despite my picking UConn. The models and unadjusted polls simply aren’t going to give the Huskies credit for winning the Big East tourney while the Cougars got destroyed by Iowa State.

I am still going to go forward with what I have – this is all my sillyness anyways – so who cares if I lose again to the media. I ended up with 12 voters – just like the committee. Then, I basically walked through the voting process.

I will eventually put a ton of information on the bracketology site about the voters and methods. But since it is 4:10 pm, I have to get a bracket out before the selection show. I am also going to include my specific vote in the list – so we can see if this is better than my normal process.

On the bracketology site – I will actually fill the regions / etc. – but for sake of time, I will simply list the seed lines.

1 – Houston (2), Connecticut – BIG EAST (1), Purdue (3), North Carolina (4)

2 – Iowa St – BIG 12 (5), Arizona (7), Tennessee (6), Creighton (9)

COMMENTS – I will be interested to see how the committee chooses between Marquette and Creighton – I chose the team that went to the finals, but the metrics like Creighton.

3 – Marquette (8), Auburn – SEC (10), Duke (14), Illinois (12)

COMMENTS – I am surprised the metrics liked Duke this much – I would suspect it will be Baylor or Kentucky….

4 – Baylor (12), Kentucky (13), Gonzaga (17), Alabama (18)

COMMENTS – This is one that I really don’t agree with my committee – if one of the WCC teams is ahead a seed line, it should be St. Mary’s.

5 – Kansas (16), St. Mary’s – WCC (15), BYU (20), South Carolina (21)

6 – Wisconsin (19), San Diego St (23), Utah St (24), Texas Tech (22)

COMMENTS – will be interested to see where the committee puts Wisconsin, especially if the beat Illinois for the Big 10 title. Also, very curious to see how they rank order the Mountain West.

7 – Florida (25), Nevada (27), Dayton (29), Washington St (26)

8 – Boise State (28), New Mexico – MT WEST (32), Nebraska (31), Colorado (36)

9 – Texas (30), Clemson (33), Michigan St (35), Florida Atlantic (41)

COMMENTS – The metrics really like FAU – I am not sure they are this safe, but I hope they are.

10 – St. John’s (37), Drake – MVC (44), Colorado St (34), Indiana St (51) / TCU (40)

COMMENTS – While I would love this, I would be surprised if Indiana State makes the tournament. But this is the biggest discrepancy between my picks and the imaginary committee. If I have counted correctly, we are also already at 34 at-large. That is just crazy.

11 – Missisippi St (47) / Pitt (39), James Madison (60), Grand Canyon (59), Oregon (54)

COMMENTS – It is crazy that we have started the automatic bids in the 11 seeds. I also think the committee is crazy to believe that either Grand Canyon or James Madison will be before NC State or Oregon.

12 – McNeese St (61), NC State (53), Duquesnes (62), Samford (64)

13 – Yale (65), UAB (63), Charleston (66), Vermont (67)

COMMENTS – I might have to put my own bracket out as well – I forgot that I ranked ordered teams that will miss the tournament ahead of these – so my numbers are going to go into the 80s instead of up to 68…..

14 – Akron (68), Oakland (69), Morehead St (71), Colgate (70)

15 – Western Kentucky (72), Long Beach St (74), Longwood (75), Stetson (73)

16 – South Dakota St (76), St Peter’s (78), Montana St (79) / Howard (80), Grambling (81) / Wagner (82),

FIRST FOUR OUT – Northwestern (38), Texas A&M (42), Wake Forest (52), Villanova (49), Cincinnati (57)

NEXT FOUR OUT – Oklahoma (50), Providence (43), Virginia (45), Utah (58)

Since it also doesn’t include my last outs – I will have a separate post with my original seeding.

But since it is already 5 pm, lets at least publish this post.

What a heart-breaking game for Brown. With 20 seconds left, they hit one of two free throws to go up 4. But Yale’s John Poulakidas hit a three pointer to cut the lead to 1.

Brown barely managed to get the ball in and escaped the trap forcing Yale to foul Malachi Ndur.

But Ndur missed both FTs, Yale passed the ball outside to Bez Mbeng, who took a dribble to the basket and then found Matt Knowling opennear the basket. And Knowling’s short jumper went through the net as the buzzer sounded.

The Bulldogs of Yale survive with a 62-61 victory and send Brown (13-18) home for the season.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!!!!!!!! Wear some green and watch some college basketball – as the stakes could not be higher for at least 3 of the remaining 5 games of the season.

The festivities start off at Noon on ESPN2 as the Ivy League championship in New York will have Yale (21-9) see if they can knock off the surging Brown (13-17) – who yesterday ended 24-4 Princeton’s season.

At 1 pm on ESPN, we move to the SEC Final in Nashville, as #12 Auburn (26-7) as the last remaining SEC team who got a double bye will try to hold off a red-hot Florida (24-10) team.

If you want to watch win or go home games instead at 1 pm, tune in to CBS for the Atlantic 10 Final in Brooklyn, where the local VCU Rams (22-12) will be playing against Duquesne (23-11) – the ones who knocked off Dayton, the only ranked A-10 team.

At 3:15 pm on ESPN, we head to Fort Worth for the American championship. UAB (22-11) will try to stop the run from Temple (16-19) – who Saturday knocked off Florida Atlantic.

At 3:30 pm on CBS, the season ends with the Big 10 Championship in Minneapolis as #13 Illinois (25-8) will try to beat Wisconsin (22-12) – who are very difficult to beat when they are playing defense like they have all throughout the Big 10 Tournament.

And then after the Big 10 Tournament, stay tuned in to CBS to watch the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, as we get to finally figure out what 68 teams will have made the tournament. It should be a fun day of basketball.

So, put on some green clothes, grab a Guinness, eat some corned beef and cabbage, and watch some great basketball!!!! Actually, I am not much of a beer drinker – or a corned beef and cabbage fan. So, maybe just put on some green clothes and watch basketball!!!! That will work as well!!!

I believe I heard that this is the first time a team has won 5 games in 5 days to win the ACC Championship. The Wolfpack held off a couple of UNC runs to claim their first ACC Tourney title since 1987.

They probably needed to with the way the day has been going – I am not sure there is a bubble left. If the last few days is representative of what will happen in the tournament, it is going to be totally wild. Lets take a moment to appreciate the madness. Going into the week, the 6 major conference regular season champs looked like they would be fighting it out for the 4 final top seeds. Then, Arizona and Tennessee lost. So, it seemed clear that UConn, Houston, Purdue and UNC would be the top seeds – and that probably is still the case. But how often do we see 5 of the top 6 teams in the country lose in their conference tournaments – where only one of those 5 losses were to a ranked team. It is close to the equivalent of having 2 of your 1 seeds and 2 of your 2 seeds lose to double digit seeds.

We knew the Atlantic 10 would have a team stealing a bid. Then, FAU lost to Temple – meaning a team is stealing the American bid. New Mexico won the Mountain West – taking their bubble decision out of the committee’s hands. Obviously, the Wolfpack as the ACC 10 seed are a surprise. And just now, the Oregon Ducks – who are down to 8 scholarship players due to injuries – have just stolen the Pac 12 championship with a victory over Colorado.

I am concerned I will not even get a bracket finished at this point and certainly don’t think I will do well. Congratulations to the Lobos, Wolfpack and Ducks – they will be dancing on Sunday night.

I would like to give the referees an option when it comes to replays. This is something that has bothered me for a long time but it happened in the Purdue game, and so while I am still annoyed, I will make my point.

With about 25 seconds left in regulation, Purdue inbounded the ball to Zach Edey and he tried to pass the ball to Braden Smith who was streaking down the sideline but he threw the ball out of bounds. The refs said the ball was deflected by a Wisconsin player and it was Purdue ball – but since it is under 2 minutes, they can review it.

When you watch the review, you see one Wisconsin player hit Edey’s arm as he turns to pass the ball (which is a clear foul) and then the Wisconsin player who double teamed Edey that they thought deflected it totally whiffed on the ball and slapped Edey in the head. (which is a clear foul).

Based on the rules, the referees can not call a foul based on the replay – so they correctly awarded the ball to Wisconsin. To a certain extent, I agree with the rule – if you watch a game in slow-motion, you are going to see a foul on every play. But here is where I disagree.

In real time, they saw the Wisconsin player hit the ball out of bounds. If they saw it correctly in real time, they would have called a foul since he completely missed the ball and hit the Purdue player. And the foul is what caused the ball to go out of bounds. So there should be a different option for the refs.

I am still good with them not calling a foul – the replay should not be allowed to call a foul. But they should be allowed to make a judgment call that even though technically the ball went off one player, the non-called foul was responsible and thus, they give the ball to the team that was fouled. If we are saying in real-time they thought the arm motion deflected it out, then they should be able to say that arm still caused it to go out based on the foul.

By the way, I am not saying that the refs stole the game from Purdue – they were not great, but Purdue got plenty of calls that went their way as well. But I would like the rules to change and give the refs the chance to correct a mistake. It is a bad rule to say that I missed calling a foul on you in a fast paced physical game but since it is in the last 2 minutes, I am going to go to a replay to review it where my only option is to also take the ball away from you.

I am probably just grumpy because Purdue lost. And it is almost dinner time and I still don’t know anything more than I would have UConn, Houston, Purdue and UNC as the one seeds. I should get back to the fake bracket to cheer me up.