Stomp The Lunatic

I hate losing – even more I hate watching my Boilers lose after some bad calls – which I feel existed.

But the Purdue – Wisconsin game is also a lesson of why you have to keep your cool.

A couple minutes into the game, the Boilers were up 6-2 when there was a rebounding foul called on Zach Edey – he walked into a Wisconsin player, and then turned around to trash talk with Badgers center Stephen Crowl. And the refs called a double technical foul.

So because he needed to trash talk, he then sat on the bench for most of the first half with 2 fouls. The Badgers outscored Purdue by 8 points while Edey sat on the bench. I think the difference was really more than 8 points as Wisconsin had no answer to him. The game never goes to overtime if Edey plays the first half – but a self-inflicted wound meant they needed to play 5 more minutes.

Then, with 40 seconds left and a 1 point lead in overtime, Chucky Hepburn hounded Braden Smith all the way up the court. Quite honestly, if you watch it, it is shocking that Hepburn had not been called for a foul with all the contact in the back court. But then, when Smith had a little bit of separation and had a pick being set by Edey that would have likely sent Hepburn to the ground, Smith threw his arm out to push Hepburn away. The retaliation always gets called – and it was a clear foul. So Smith had to go to the bench with his fifth foul, and gave the Badgers the ball and a chance for Max Klesmitt to hit a short jumper in the lane to win the game.

Look – I get it. Trash talk is sadly part of the game and they all do it. I get it that contact is part of the game – these are big men playing a physical sport. But if you are going to be champions, you have to rise above it – you have the let the trash talk roll off you, and you have to not retaliate. You have to play with urgency – that the Boilers didn’t seem to do.

I am hoping this is a good thing. I hope this reminds everyone in that locker room of how it felt last year when they got upset by FDU. I hope it reminds them that despite how most of the season has been, they are beatable if they are not playing well. I hope it makes them realize that they have options when Edey is not out there – like they had to find for most of the second half. I hope they take this game, listen to the continued feedback that Purdue can not win in March and come out with a new passion and aggressiveness that is necessary to win championships. The Boilers seem content when they are up by 5-6 points. If you watch Houston or Connecticut, they don’t appear content unless they are up 20.

But most importantly, I hope they realize that they let Wisconsin beat them. The Badgers wanted this game more and they took it. Oh well – guess I got to get back to bracketology.

I have an amazing wife – she is driving us up to DC for Katie’s rugby game, allowing me a chance to blog. Of course, that altruism might simply be a preference for safety so that I am not driving – but I am going to keep believing it is she wants to let me concentrate on basketball.

I don’t think I have the patience to type out all 23 games on my phone as Katie and Elizabeth sing to Hamilton songs. But as far as a viewing guide is concerned, here is the big thing to realize. 13 teams are going to win a game today and earn the honor of having their name called out on Sunday’s Selection Show. And the other 10 winners are going to play each other Sunday for the final 5 automatic bids.

You can not go wrong watching any of the games today. For many of them, you will have two teams playing with such passion because they know that a loss likely means their season is over. The Lunatic is excited for all of the games and wishes he could watch all of them. So realize that leaving anyone out of the blog at this point is simply a matter of what catches his eye as we head to rugby.

If you want to watch to see if there is a mid-major team that could be your 12-14 seed upset, there are plenty to choose from.

– 11 am – America East sees 27-6 Vermont play UMass-Lowell – a team with that many wins is always worth keeping an eye on

– 11 am – Ivy semifinal with 24-3 Princeton against Brown – Princeton started the season with a victory against Rutgers so they are certainly possible of beating a major conference team.

– 1 pm – Atlantic 10 semi with VCU and St Joseph’s. The local Rams have certainly made noise in the tournament before – and so have other A-10 teams.

– 3 pm – American semi between regular season champ South Florida (24-6) and a good UAB (21-11) team. South Florida didn’t have a great non-conference but going 16-2 in the American shows they can hang with anyone if they keep winning.

– 3:30 pm – Atlantic 10 semi-final between Duquesne and St Bonaventure – Duquesne just knocked off Dayton and the Bonnies beat Oklahoma State in November.

– 5 pm – American semi between Florida Atlantic and Temple. FAU has a resume that likely might be in as an at-large, so if you are rooting for a bubble team, you are also hoping FAU wins their next 2 games as any other American team will be stealing a bid.

– 7:30 pm – MAC final between Akron (23-11) and Kent State – the MAC schools tend to always be a tough out in March and Akron has lost a few close games against other top mid-major schools.

– 11:30 pm – WAC brings the night-owls a chance to watch Grand Canyon (28-4) against UT-Arlington. Grand Canyon has non-conference victories against San Diego State and San Francisco.

Well maybe I almost will have all the games here – we can’t leave out the major conferences. Lets start with championships

– 6 pm Big 12 – #1 Houston vs #7 Iowa State – might be the biggest game of the night with the top 2 teams from the toughest conference playing.

– 6:30 pm Big East – #2 Connecticut vs #10 Marquette would normally top the list of games if it wasn’t for the Big 12 game above it.

– 6 pm Mountain West – San Diego State vs New Mexico. Both these teams should probably be in the tournament, but it is still unclear to me if the Committee will take 6 teams from a conference not considered one of the major 6. Those 6 teams deserve it but perception and money are tough opponents. New Mexico probably needs to win this game more as I suspect the Aztecs are safer with their profile.

– 8:30 pm ACC – #4 North Carolina vs NC State – at the start of my bracketology, I had the Wolfpack as a long shot simply because a few wins could get them into the top 80 of the NET (where the conversation normally starts). Can they win 5 games in 5 days and punch their ticket to the dance? If they beat the Tar Heels, they will certainly have earned their spot.

– 9 pm Pac 12 – Colorado vs Oregon – if you believe Joe Lunardi, Colorado is one of the last 4 teams in and Oregon is not under consideration (which seems ridiculous – they finished 4th in the Pac 12 at 22-11 with a NET of 61). I can’t imagine the disrespect to the Pac 12 that in the final year of their existence that they only get 3 teams in the tournament – but if the media is right, Oregon needs to win this game to give them a chance at 4 (and that might simply steal the bid from Colorado).

That leaves us with the Big 10 and SEC. The Big 10 semi-finals have 4 teams likely safely in the tournament as all 4 of them are in the top 31 of the NET rankings. #3 Purdue opens the semis against Wisconsin at 1 pm while #13 Illinois takes on Nebraska at 3:30 pm.

The SEC semi-finalists might also all be in but it is less clear based on where they placed in the conference. #12 Auburn plays Mississippi State (who is ranked 32 in the NET but went 8-10 in the SEC) at 1 pm. And then at 3:30 pm, Florida (who is probably safely in with a NET ranking of 28) plays Texas A&M (who is more nervous with a NET ranking of 42 and a 9-9 conference record).

And with that, we have arrived at Signal Hill Park for Katie’s rugby game!!! Go Richmond Strikers Rugby!!!! And good luck to any of the teams you are rooting for today!!!! Enjoy Championship Saturday!!!!

Drifting in and out of consciousness, the Lunatic was lying in bed with the ACC semi-final playing on my laptop. I had made as much progress as I would on my bracketology – which is currently a mess. And with my daughter’s rugby game Saturday morning in Washington, DC, I couldn’t afford to try to model deep into the night.

So, I turned on the game, got ready for sleep and started drifting away. It was the classic Virginia game of them holding the ball for the full shot clock trying desperately to score and then playing their trademark defense on the other side. It was enough for my eyes to close.

I semi-wake up as I hear the announcers talking about it is crazy that NC State is still in this game after a flagrant foul but the Cavaliers can still wrap it up here. I have no clue what happened but I glance up to see the score is 58-55 with Virginia’s Isaac McKneely standing on the free throw line with 6 seconds left.

Then I watch as the Cavalier’s best FT shooter of the season at 84.7% misses the free throw. The Wolfpack’s Casey Morsell grabbed the rebound and quickly sent the ball up the court to Michael O’Connell, and he starts dribbling as fast as possible down the sideline across half court. He gets as far as he can before the clock gets to one second, and throws up a three-pointer from right in front of his coach on the bench. The ball seems to go off the backboard, rattles around on the rim and falls through the basketball – sending the Wolfpack bench into a frenzy as the stadium erupts.

In the overtime, the Wolfpack simply kept giving the ball to big man DJ Burns Jr – who dominated the overtime with 7 points. Burns seemed to bully his way into the lane whenever he wanted and there was nothing that Virginia could do to stop him. Virginia would miss 4 three point shots in the final 30 seconds, the Wolfpack’s DJ Horne hit 4 free throws, and NC State went on to win 73-65 for their 4th straight win in 4 days and a date with #4 North Carolina to play for the ACC Championship Saturday night. They stated the week with a NET ranking of 83 and not in the bubble conversation. The Wolfpack are now at 68, forcing their way into the committee’s selection room, and one win away from stealing the ACC’s bid.

But NC State isn’t the only concern for the bubble and the Selection Committee. In the Pac 12 last night, Oregon upset #6 Arizona and Colorado upset #22 Washington State setting up a championship between two teams that certainly are not guaranteed to be in. In the Mountain West, San Diego St upset #18 Utah State while in a game that started after midnight – the weakest bubble team from that conference, New Mexico upset Colorado State to move to tonight’s final. We can’t leave out the SEC – where the top 3 seeds lost to Florida, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. And of course, we already knew the Atlantic 10 had a bid being stolen with the top 4 seeds all losing in the quarterfinals.

There are good reasons to take so many teams this year – there are also good reasons to choose a different one. The definition of the bubble always means you have some type of flaw. The best advice has always been to take the decision out of the Committee’s hands and win the conference tournament and the automatic bid that comes with it. But with so many bubble teams taking that advice to heart and playing on Saturday, it is tough to guess what the committee is thinking. Normally, the committee already has selected their at large teams and have started the topic of seeding by this point. I am not sure if they can possibly be at that point with so many teams making a late push.

At least I think that is what happened last night. Maybe it was all a dream. For many of these bubble teams, they probably want the Lunatic to keep dreaming. For those who lost early in the week, they are probably hoping for the dream to not turn into a nightmare. As for the Lunatic, any dream involving basketball is good – let the Madness begin!!!!

It was pretty clear that Purdue, Houston and UConn had wrapped up 1 seeds going into the week. So, the drama became who would take the last #1 seed. The polls and the regular season championships of the major conferences suggested it was a race between #4 North Carolina, #5 Tennessee and #6 Arizona.

Well – the Tar Heels handled their business in the ACC semi-finals – fighting off a desperate Pitt team for a 72-65 victory. But with Tennessee losing by 17 in the SEC quarterfinals to Mississippi State and Arizona losing by 8 in the Pac 12 semifinals to Oregon, the other two leaders will be sitting out the rest of the weekend.

And considering that UNC also beat Tennessee in the regular season, I suspect that ends the conversation. The Lunatic is predicting that the Tar Heels will join Houston, UConn and Purdue on the top line. I am not sure how I will rank order the Cougars, Huskies and Boilers – but I am not sure that matters to his bracketology – a 1 seed is a 1 seed.

It does look like the bubble is getting tighter and tighter, as bubble teams fight their way to their conference championship games. It should be a really interesting Selection Sunday.

The Lunatic might be getting old. Normally, by this point, I have Excel sheets tracking the NET, half of the bubble teams ranked, and some type of plan for my bracketology page. This year, he has simply gotten caught up with actually watching the games. Last night definitely had some fun ones. So, it only makes sense as I have some time before work to procrastinate that task longer and provide a viewing guide telling you almost every game that is happening – because they are all worth watching!!!!

In the Noon / 1 pm games, my Boilers kick off their Big 10 tournament against Michigan State – who is likely in but would love one large upset on their resume. Then, in the SEC, Tennessee starts their campaign for the final #1 seed as they play a Mississippi State team that desperately needs a win to stay in the conversation.

In the mid-afternoon games, Wisconsin and Northwestern should be a great game of two teams that probably should be in. However, the best game maybe of the entire day comes from the SEC as #15 South Carolina plays #12 Auburn.

At 5:30 pm, the Big East semi-finals kick off with #2 Connecticut playing against St. John’s, who might have already fought their way into the dance, but certainly could use another victory. A key point is this game is at Madison Square Garden – so it is a home game for St. John’s.

Around 7 pm, pick your major conference:

• Big 10 – Illinois plays a Ohio State team trying to go on such a win streak with their interim coach that they sneak into the tournament
• Big 12 – #1 Houston vs #25 Texas Tech as a pair of ranked teams play in the semis
• ACC – #4 North Carolina continues their search for the #1 seed against Pitt, another bubble team desperately needing a win
• SEC – #9 Kentucky takes on Texas A&M, who also is a bubble team needing a big victory
• Pac 12 (8 pm) – #6 Arizona plays Oregon, so this is a big chance for the bubbly Ducks to get one last ranked victory
• Big East (8 pm) – #10 Marquette plays Providence – who made a big case for themselves on the bubble yesterday against Creighton and could make a bigger case tonight in the semis.

The 9 pm games also have their drama.

• Big 10 – Nebraska and Indiana is one of the biggest bubble team / long shot team games of the day.
• Big 12 – #7 Iowa State vs #14 Baylor should be a fantastic game that would resemble a Sweet 16 game.
• Mt West – #18 Utah State vs San Diego State in the semis of a crazy competitive conference
• SEC – #19 Alabama vs Florida – as the Gators try to build their resume against the Tide
• ACC – Virginia vs NC State – are the Wolfpack moved onto the bubble yet. Has Virginia done enough to move into the tournament. So many bubble questions.

And of course, if you want to stay up super late. You have the Pac 12 semi of #22 Washington State against Colorado – a team I think is in, but many experts say they are on the brink of the bubble. And the night finishes with a huge bubble match-up in the Mountain West, as Colorado State plays New Mexico. Both these teams were the most vulnerable bubble teams from the conference going into the tournament. And both came up with huge wins Thursday to make it to the semi-finals.

So much to watch – enjoy the games!

What is happening in Brooklyn! Apparently, March Madness has begun in the Atlantic 10, as all 4 of the top seeds have been eliminated. #1 Richmond lost by 5 to 9 seed St Joseph’s. Then, #4 Massachusetts lost to 5 seed VCU by 14. In the thriller of the night, #2 Loyola Chicago lost by 1 in double overtime to 7 seed St Bonaventure. And then, 6 seed Duquesne didn’t want to be left out of the party and pulled off the biggest upset of the day with an 8 point victory – against nationally ranked Dayton.

And the bubble gets a little bit tighter – none of VCU, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, or St Joseph’s was expected to be in the tournament – but one of them is going to earn a bid.

What a great day for Pi Day – the Thursday of Championship Week!!!!

It has been a tough day for mid-major champs. Richmond and Loyola Chicago both got knocked out of the Atlantic 10 tournament, and Toledo got knocked out of the MAC tournament.

How about the NC State Wolfpack who upset Duke!!! Add Pitt’s victory over Wake Forest, and now the ACC bubble has become extremely cloudy. I have no clue who is making it.

Since I have no clue who is safe on the bubble, I probably should start to figure that out. I am running out of time – as are some of the other bubble teams that lost tonight. Either that or tell you all the games I want to watch tomorrow – which is all of them!!!!

Maybe I will just watch one of the many late games that are good – hey look, Dayton is losing at halftime to Duquesne – that will ensure a bid to be stolen if the all top 4 seeds lose in the quarterfinals. Of course, Virginia/Boston College, Marquette/Villanova or Baylor/Cincinnati could be more interesting games – but they are just starting. I can always come back to that after the upset alert is over.

Wish I had some pie to go along with the basketball – oh well. Happy Pi Day!!!!

As I sit here watching Kansas play Cincinnati, I realized that my modeling chances for the evening are waning. So why not keep blogging. By the way, I have to say that the bubble is fascinating this year – I really am not sure what is going to happen. With Kansas State winning against Texas, and Cincinnati having a chance to knock off Kansas, can 11 Big 12 teams really make the tournament. I do think it is a win or else game for Cincinnati – I don’t know that 19-14 with 7-12 in the conference going against a team without its two leading scorers is good enough. But right now the Bearcats are up 14 – so they look good. That being said, it is still early.

Thursday is typically the classic bubble day, as the Big 12, ACC, Big East, Pac 12 and Mountain West all have their quarterfinals – and the 2nd rounds of the Big 10 and SEC are going. So, if you want to watch a bubble team, you can simply turn on the TV. I will say that I think the Big 10 and SEC hurt their bubble teams. The quarterfinals which will give a 7 seed on the bubble a shot at the 2 seed doesn’t happen until Friday. The Selection Committee makes their initial board tonight, and while teams can make their way on and off that board, the further into the weekend, I suspect the less likely for movement.

If you are looking for the best basketball, simply go to Kansas City (or watch ESPN) to see the Big 12 championship. Look at this schedule starting at 12:30 pm EST and going all day:

• #20 BYU vs #25 Texas Tech
• #1 Houston vs TCU (who is not a lock but probably is in)
• #7 Iowa State vs Kansas St (who clearly is on the bubble and might need another win to make it)
• #14 Baylor vs the winner of #16 Kansas / Cincinnati – so we either get to see how the injured Jayhawks due against a ranked team, or see if Cincinnati can move their way off the bubble and into the dance

You really can’t get much better than that. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t good basketball out there. Teams like #2 UConn, #4 UNC, and #6 Arizona open their conference tournaments – but their opponents probably need to be still playing on Saturday to even move onto the bubble. Teams finishing with 16+ losses like Florida State, Xavier and USC don’t get at large bids. But there are plenty of interesting bubble teams still playing. I could name off almost every game tomorrow, but here are the ones that are most interesting to me.

• Atlantic 10 co-champ and local favorite, Richmond opens against St. Joseph’s – I can’t see the Spiders making it without getting to the final. (Same can be said for Loyola with their game against St. Bonaventure)
• As a Big 10 fan, Michigan State vs Minnesota is interesting to me to see if the Spartans can advance against another 18-13 team.
• Mississippi State got ranked and then lost a bunch of games at the end of the season now desperately need a win against LSU (who could possibly get in the conversation with some wins)
• St. John’s vs Seton Hall is a classic bubble game, with the winner probably earning a chance to upset Connecticut. That is actually a prize – since no one is going to blame you for losing to the Huskies, but you will certainly be win if you can knock the defending national champions out of the Big East tournament.
• Wake Forest vs Pitt in the ACC could be against 2 teams both in the tournament, or could be 2 teams both out of the tournament trying to make one last good impression. The ACC bubble is confusing as always.
• UNLV gets to host San Diego State in the Mountain West – the Running Rebels are the Mt West team left out of the conversation for the bubble – which is unfair. Their 12-6 record was actually better than the Aztecs.
• Oregon probably desperately needs a win against a tougher than expected UCLA.
• Are there any crazier bubble teams than Ohio State and Iowa? OSU started the season 11-2, crash and burned so badly in January and early February that they fired their coach, and then responded with a 5-1 record for their interim coach. The Hawkeyes finished strongly with a 4-2 record (only losses both to Illinois) to get onto the bubble.
• Providence is clearly part of the Big East bubble, but also has Creighton – so a win could clinch things for them.
• NC State has seen their NET ranking move into the top 80 and will continue to rise with their big victory over Syracuse today – they next get Duke, which would certainly be a big game to have.
• Ole Miss vs Texas A&M is for two SEC teams that I think probably need to win 3-4 games, so this could easily be an elimination game.
• The evening games of the Mountain West include Colorado State vs. Nevada and New Mexico vs Boise State. Should be a good time in Las Vegas.

Some of the other evening games might be more interesting based on who wins later tonight – but I have already listed off too many games to watch as it is. And the second half of the Kansas game has started – although maybe I should be checking out the fact that Boston College is up double digits against Clemson, or that 3-28 DePaul is up a basket against Villanova.

So much basketball – so little time. Enjoy the games!

Well, there is trouble ahead for the Lunatic as well. If the Lunatic was sane, he would be working on a model to predict what the committee will do so I could create an awesome bracketology page with analytics and sage wisdom. Thankfully, we know the answer to this question – the Lunatic is certainly not sane. The blog is calling – so is a desperate plea for sleep that will obviously be ignored.

So lets talk about the long week that the Indiana State Sycamores are having. The Sycamores had a fantastic season, going 28-6 overall and 17-3 in the Missouri Valley to win the regular season championship by a game over Drake. In week 15, they entered both the AP (23) and Coaches (24) Polls. At 22-3 and a NET ranking of 20, it looked like they would be one of those rare mid-major schools that were locks to make the tournament even if disaster happened in the MVC tournament.

But then disaster started. The Sycamores celebrated their entry into the polls as clearly a team with a target on their back. They lost at home by 13 to Illinois State and then on the road by 5 to Southern Illinois. But Indiana State did win the last 4 games to hang on to the MVC regular season title. And then, they fell behind in the MVC championship game by 13 at half to Drake. That lead grew to 18 points with 10 minutes to play before they came alive. A 24-5 run gave them a lead late, but Drake stopped the momentum and finished with a 4 point victory – taking the MVC’s ticket to the dance with them.

With a NET ranking of 29, the Sycamores are still clearly in the discussion. But a closer look at their resume brings more questions than answers. The only quad 1 victory they have is a road win at Bradley on December 2nd. That home loss to Illinois State is classified as a Quad 4 loss (making them only 1 of 2 teams in the top 30 with that bad of a loss). Their only other wins against top 100 teams are their home wins against Drake and Bradley. They do have a 2 point victory against MAC regular season champion Toledo – but with that being a Quad 3 win – it probably won’t help them.

But the toughest point for them is the only two major conference teams they played. They played at Alabama in their second game of the season – where the Tide beat them by 22 points. They then travelled to East Lancing at the end of December, where they were down only 1 point with 7 minutes to played before the Spartans ran away for a 12 point victory. So, the only 2 games they played against teams likely in the tournament as at-large teams led to double digit losses.

And that is the unfairness of being in the Missouri Valley. The Spartans beat Illinois by 8 at home and no one is even questioning if the Illini should be dancing. They also lost on the road by double digits to both Northwestern and Wisconsin – yet, the Spartans are probably safely in the tournament. But imagine how this conversation would be different for the Spartans if they only had those two road games against teams likely in the tournament. People would be asking – who did they beat?

Alabama was 14-2 at home with 11 of those victories being by double digits. Michigan State was 14-4 at home with 10 of those victories being by double digits – and yet those were the only 2 chances the Sycamores had to prove themselves. If 3 or 4 bubble teams had to come to Terre Haute to play, I bet Indiana State probably wins those games.

But major conference teams don’t make the foolish decision of heading to Terre Haute – many won’t even let the Sycamores come to their home to play. So we are left with the question of what is the right picture of this team. Are they the regular season champion who won 28 games that the NET rankings consider one of the top 30 teams in the country? Or are they a team that simply won a lot of games against weak competition and didn’t beat any tournament worthy teams? Sadly, the answer is they are both.

Personally, I hope the Selection Committee gives the Sycamores a chance. But honestly – as I try to predict the bracket, I am not sure they make it – I certainly have seen other regular season mid-major champions with great NET rankings get left out. And that fact will make this week become a very long week in Indiana.

Well – I have a crazy busy day tomorrow, so while the day is not completely decided, lets talk about Wednesday’s games.

Before we do that, congratulations to Charleston, Oakland and Wagner for winning their conference tournaments.

There are three finals:

5 pm – Southland – McNeese (29-3) vs Texas A&M – Corpus Christi / Nicholls winner

7 pm – Patriot – Colgate (24-9) vs Lehigh (14-17)

11:30 pm – Big Sky – Montana St/Sacramento St winner vs Montana / Idaho St winner

But the bubble starts getting interesting on Wednesday – there are so many good games for either bubble teams that simply can not afford a bad loss vs. bubble teams playing each other. We even have a few ranked teams playing thanks to the ridiculously tough Big 12.

12:30 pm – Big 12 has BYU vs UCF

2:30 pm – ACC has Wake Forest vs Notre Dame

3 pm – Big 12 has TCU vs Oklahoma

4 pm – Big East has Butler vs Xavier

4:30 pm – Mt West has Colorado St vs San Jose St

6:30 pm – Big East has Providence va Georgetown

7 pm – Mt West has New Mexico vs Air Force

7 pm – Big 12 has Texas vs Kansas St

7 pm – ACC has Syracuse vs NC State

9 pm – Big East has Villanova vs DePaul

9:30 pm – Big 12 has Kansas vs Cincinnati

9:30 pm – ACC has Clemson vs Boston College

11:30 pm – Pac 12 has Utah vs Arizona St

So many games to watch tomorrow!!!