Stomp The Lunatic

I was really kind of disappointed with how the imaginary committee worked out. So here is based off mine.

1 – Connecticut, Houston, Purdue, UNC

2 – Iowa St, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette

3 – Creighton, Auburn, Illinois, Baylor

4 – Kentucky, Duke, St. Marys, Kansas

5 – Gonzaga, Alabama, Wisconsin, BYU

6 – South Carolina, Texas Tech, San Diego St, Utah St

7 – Florida, Washington St, Nevada, Boise St

8 – Dayton, Texas, Nebraska, New Mexico

9 – Clemson, Colorado St, Michigan St, Colorado

10 – St. John’s, Northwestern, Pitt / TCU, FAU / Texas A&M

11 – Drake, NC State, Oregon, Grand Canyon

12 – James Madison, McNeese St, Duquesne, UAB

13 – Samford, Yale, Charleston, Vermont

14 – Akron, Oakland, Colgate, Morehead St

15 – Western Kentucky, Long Beach St, Stetson, Longwood

16 – South Dakota St, St. Peter’s, Montana St/Howard, Grambling/Wagner

FIRST FOUR OUT – Providence, Virginia, Seton Hall, Mississippi St

NEXT FOUR OUT – Kansas St, Villanova, Oklahoma, Indiana St

Well – I am relatively sure this will be a disaster. I spent so much time trying to create models that I really didn’t pay attention much to actual resumes until late last night and today. But I managed to come up with a crazy complex method to do this that will allow me to over-analyze how I did this for longer than I would like to admit.

All the models have flaws in them. I wish I had a longer amount of time to figure out how to make adjustments for this week. For example, a team like Arizona or Purdue might drop a couple spots in the polls for losing in their semi-finals – but I have to take what the polls said at the time. I already have fears about the process – since it as Houston as the #1 seed – despite my picking UConn. The models and unadjusted polls simply aren’t going to give the Huskies credit for winning the Big East tourney while the Cougars got destroyed by Iowa State.

I am still going to go forward with what I have – this is all my sillyness anyways – so who cares if I lose again to the media. I ended up with 12 voters – just like the committee. Then, I basically walked through the voting process.

I will eventually put a ton of information on the bracketology site about the voters and methods. But since it is 4:10 pm, I have to get a bracket out before the selection show. I am also going to include my specific vote in the list – so we can see if this is better than my normal process.

On the bracketology site – I will actually fill the regions / etc. – but for sake of time, I will simply list the seed lines.

1 – Houston (2), Connecticut – BIG EAST (1), Purdue (3), North Carolina (4)

2 – Iowa St – BIG 12 (5), Arizona (7), Tennessee (6), Creighton (9)

COMMENTS – I will be interested to see how the committee chooses between Marquette and Creighton – I chose the team that went to the finals, but the metrics like Creighton.

3 – Marquette (8), Auburn – SEC (10), Duke (14), Illinois (12)

COMMENTS – I am surprised the metrics liked Duke this much – I would suspect it will be Baylor or Kentucky….

4 – Baylor (12), Kentucky (13), Gonzaga (17), Alabama (18)

COMMENTS – This is one that I really don’t agree with my committee – if one of the WCC teams is ahead a seed line, it should be St. Mary’s.

5 – Kansas (16), St. Mary’s – WCC (15), BYU (20), South Carolina (21)

6 – Wisconsin (19), San Diego St (23), Utah St (24), Texas Tech (22)

COMMENTS – will be interested to see where the committee puts Wisconsin, especially if the beat Illinois for the Big 10 title. Also, very curious to see how they rank order the Mountain West.

7 – Florida (25), Nevada (27), Dayton (29), Washington St (26)

8 – Boise State (28), New Mexico – MT WEST (32), Nebraska (31), Colorado (36)

9 – Texas (30), Clemson (33), Michigan St (35), Florida Atlantic (41)

COMMENTS – The metrics really like FAU – I am not sure they are this safe, but I hope they are.

10 – St. John’s (37), Drake – MVC (44), Colorado St (34), Indiana St (51) / TCU (40)

COMMENTS – While I would love this, I would be surprised if Indiana State makes the tournament. But this is the biggest discrepancy between my picks and the imaginary committee. If I have counted correctly, we are also already at 34 at-large. That is just crazy.

11 – Missisippi St (47) / Pitt (39), James Madison (60), Grand Canyon (59), Oregon (54)

COMMENTS – It is crazy that we have started the automatic bids in the 11 seeds. I also think the committee is crazy to believe that either Grand Canyon or James Madison will be before NC State or Oregon.

12 – McNeese St (61), NC State (53), Duquesnes (62), Samford (64)

13 – Yale (65), UAB (63), Charleston (66), Vermont (67)

COMMENTS – I might have to put my own bracket out as well – I forgot that I ranked ordered teams that will miss the tournament ahead of these – so my numbers are going to go into the 80s instead of up to 68…..

14 – Akron (68), Oakland (69), Morehead St (71), Colgate (70)

15 – Western Kentucky (72), Long Beach St (74), Longwood (75), Stetson (73)

16 – South Dakota St (76), St Peter’s (78), Montana St (79) / Howard (80), Grambling (81) / Wagner (82),

FIRST FOUR OUT – Northwestern (38), Texas A&M (42), Wake Forest (52), Villanova (49), Cincinnati (57)

NEXT FOUR OUT – Oklahoma (50), Providence (43), Virginia (45), Utah (58)

Since it also doesn’t include my last outs – I will have a separate post with my original seeding.

But since it is already 5 pm, lets at least publish this post.

What a heart-breaking game for Brown. With 20 seconds left, they hit one of two free throws to go up 4. But Yale’s John Poulakidas hit a three pointer to cut the lead to 1.

Brown barely managed to get the ball in and escaped the trap forcing Yale to foul Malachi Ndur.

But Ndur missed both FTs, Yale passed the ball outside to Bez Mbeng, who took a dribble to the basket and then found Matt Knowling opennear the basket. And Knowling’s short jumper went through the net as the buzzer sounded.

The Bulldogs of Yale survive with a 62-61 victory and send Brown (13-18) home for the season.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!!!!!!!! Wear some green and watch some college basketball – as the stakes could not be higher for at least 3 of the remaining 5 games of the season.

The festivities start off at Noon on ESPN2 as the Ivy League championship in New York will have Yale (21-9) see if they can knock off the surging Brown (13-17) – who yesterday ended 24-4 Princeton’s season.

At 1 pm on ESPN, we move to the SEC Final in Nashville, as #12 Auburn (26-7) as the last remaining SEC team who got a double bye will try to hold off a red-hot Florida (24-10) team.

If you want to watch win or go home games instead at 1 pm, tune in to CBS for the Atlantic 10 Final in Brooklyn, where the local VCU Rams (22-12) will be playing against Duquesne (23-11) – the ones who knocked off Dayton, the only ranked A-10 team.

At 3:15 pm on ESPN, we head to Fort Worth for the American championship. UAB (22-11) will try to stop the run from Temple (16-19) – who Saturday knocked off Florida Atlantic.

At 3:30 pm on CBS, the season ends with the Big 10 Championship in Minneapolis as #13 Illinois (25-8) will try to beat Wisconsin (22-12) – who are very difficult to beat when they are playing defense like they have all throughout the Big 10 Tournament.

And then after the Big 10 Tournament, stay tuned in to CBS to watch the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, as we get to finally figure out what 68 teams will have made the tournament. It should be a fun day of basketball.

So, put on some green clothes, grab a Guinness, eat some corned beef and cabbage, and watch some great basketball!!!! Actually, I am not much of a beer drinker – or a corned beef and cabbage fan. So, maybe just put on some green clothes and watch basketball!!!! That will work as well!!!

I believe I heard that this is the first time a team has won 5 games in 5 days to win the ACC Championship. The Wolfpack held off a couple of UNC runs to claim their first ACC Tourney title since 1987.

They probably needed to with the way the day has been going – I am not sure there is a bubble left. If the last few days is representative of what will happen in the tournament, it is going to be totally wild. Lets take a moment to appreciate the madness. Going into the week, the 6 major conference regular season champs looked like they would be fighting it out for the 4 final top seeds. Then, Arizona and Tennessee lost. So, it seemed clear that UConn, Houston, Purdue and UNC would be the top seeds – and that probably is still the case. But how often do we see 5 of the top 6 teams in the country lose in their conference tournaments – where only one of those 5 losses were to a ranked team. It is close to the equivalent of having 2 of your 1 seeds and 2 of your 2 seeds lose to double digit seeds.

We knew the Atlantic 10 would have a team stealing a bid. Then, FAU lost to Temple – meaning a team is stealing the American bid. New Mexico won the Mountain West – taking their bubble decision out of the committee’s hands. Obviously, the Wolfpack as the ACC 10 seed are a surprise. And just now, the Oregon Ducks – who are down to 8 scholarship players due to injuries – have just stolen the Pac 12 championship with a victory over Colorado.

I am concerned I will not even get a bracket finished at this point and certainly don’t think I will do well. Congratulations to the Lobos, Wolfpack and Ducks – they will be dancing on Sunday night.

I would like to give the referees an option when it comes to replays. This is something that has bothered me for a long time but it happened in the Purdue game, and so while I am still annoyed, I will make my point.

With about 25 seconds left in regulation, Purdue inbounded the ball to Zach Edey and he tried to pass the ball to Braden Smith who was streaking down the sideline but he threw the ball out of bounds. The refs said the ball was deflected by a Wisconsin player and it was Purdue ball – but since it is under 2 minutes, they can review it.

When you watch the review, you see one Wisconsin player hit Edey’s arm as he turns to pass the ball (which is a clear foul) and then the Wisconsin player who double teamed Edey that they thought deflected it totally whiffed on the ball and slapped Edey in the head. (which is a clear foul).

Based on the rules, the referees can not call a foul based on the replay – so they correctly awarded the ball to Wisconsin. To a certain extent, I agree with the rule – if you watch a game in slow-motion, you are going to see a foul on every play. But here is where I disagree.

In real time, they saw the Wisconsin player hit the ball out of bounds. If they saw it correctly in real time, they would have called a foul since he completely missed the ball and hit the Purdue player. And the foul is what caused the ball to go out of bounds. So there should be a different option for the refs.

I am still good with them not calling a foul – the replay should not be allowed to call a foul. But they should be allowed to make a judgment call that even though technically the ball went off one player, the non-called foul was responsible and thus, they give the ball to the team that was fouled. If we are saying in real-time they thought the arm motion deflected it out, then they should be able to say that arm still caused it to go out based on the foul.

By the way, I am not saying that the refs stole the game from Purdue – they were not great, but Purdue got plenty of calls that went their way as well. But I would like the rules to change and give the refs the chance to correct a mistake. It is a bad rule to say that I missed calling a foul on you in a fast paced physical game but since it is in the last 2 minutes, I am going to go to a replay to review it where my only option is to also take the ball away from you.

I am probably just grumpy because Purdue lost. And it is almost dinner time and I still don’t know anything more than I would have UConn, Houston, Purdue and UNC as the one seeds. I should get back to the fake bracket to cheer me up.

I hate losing – even more I hate watching my Boilers lose after some bad calls – which I feel existed.

But the Purdue – Wisconsin game is also a lesson of why you have to keep your cool.

A couple minutes into the game, the Boilers were up 6-2 when there was a rebounding foul called on Zach Edey – he walked into a Wisconsin player, and then turned around to trash talk with Badgers center Stephen Crowl. And the refs called a double technical foul.

So because he needed to trash talk, he then sat on the bench for most of the first half with 2 fouls. The Badgers outscored Purdue by 8 points while Edey sat on the bench. I think the difference was really more than 8 points as Wisconsin had no answer to him. The game never goes to overtime if Edey plays the first half – but a self-inflicted wound meant they needed to play 5 more minutes.

Then, with 40 seconds left and a 1 point lead in overtime, Chucky Hepburn hounded Braden Smith all the way up the court. Quite honestly, if you watch it, it is shocking that Hepburn had not been called for a foul with all the contact in the back court. But then, when Smith had a little bit of separation and had a pick being set by Edey that would have likely sent Hepburn to the ground, Smith threw his arm out to push Hepburn away. The retaliation always gets called – and it was a clear foul. So Smith had to go to the bench with his fifth foul, and gave the Badgers the ball and a chance for Max Klesmitt to hit a short jumper in the lane to win the game.

Look – I get it. Trash talk is sadly part of the game and they all do it. I get it that contact is part of the game – these are big men playing a physical sport. But if you are going to be champions, you have to rise above it – you have the let the trash talk roll off you, and you have to not retaliate. You have to play with urgency – that the Boilers didn’t seem to do.

I am hoping this is a good thing. I hope this reminds everyone in that locker room of how it felt last year when they got upset by FDU. I hope it reminds them that despite how most of the season has been, they are beatable if they are not playing well. I hope it makes them realize that they have options when Edey is not out there – like they had to find for most of the second half. I hope they take this game, listen to the continued feedback that Purdue can not win in March and come out with a new passion and aggressiveness that is necessary to win championships. The Boilers seem content when they are up by 5-6 points. If you watch Houston or Connecticut, they don’t appear content unless they are up 20.

But most importantly, I hope they realize that they let Wisconsin beat them. The Badgers wanted this game more and they took it. Oh well – guess I got to get back to bracketology.

I have an amazing wife – she is driving us up to DC for Katie’s rugby game, allowing me a chance to blog. Of course, that altruism might simply be a preference for safety so that I am not driving – but I am going to keep believing it is she wants to let me concentrate on basketball.

I don’t think I have the patience to type out all 23 games on my phone as Katie and Elizabeth sing to Hamilton songs. But as far as a viewing guide is concerned, here is the big thing to realize. 13 teams are going to win a game today and earn the honor of having their name called out on Sunday’s Selection Show. And the other 10 winners are going to play each other Sunday for the final 5 automatic bids.

You can not go wrong watching any of the games today. For many of them, you will have two teams playing with such passion because they know that a loss likely means their season is over. The Lunatic is excited for all of the games and wishes he could watch all of them. So realize that leaving anyone out of the blog at this point is simply a matter of what catches his eye as we head to rugby.

If you want to watch to see if there is a mid-major team that could be your 12-14 seed upset, there are plenty to choose from.

– 11 am – America East sees 27-6 Vermont play UMass-Lowell – a team with that many wins is always worth keeping an eye on

– 11 am – Ivy semifinal with 24-3 Princeton against Brown – Princeton started the season with a victory against Rutgers so they are certainly possible of beating a major conference team.

– 1 pm – Atlantic 10 semi with VCU and St Joseph’s. The local Rams have certainly made noise in the tournament before – and so have other A-10 teams.

– 3 pm – American semi between regular season champ South Florida (24-6) and a good UAB (21-11) team. South Florida didn’t have a great non-conference but going 16-2 in the American shows they can hang with anyone if they keep winning.

– 3:30 pm – Atlantic 10 semi-final between Duquesne and St Bonaventure – Duquesne just knocked off Dayton and the Bonnies beat Oklahoma State in November.

– 5 pm – American semi between Florida Atlantic and Temple. FAU has a resume that likely might be in as an at-large, so if you are rooting for a bubble team, you are also hoping FAU wins their next 2 games as any other American team will be stealing a bid.

– 7:30 pm – MAC final between Akron (23-11) and Kent State – the MAC schools tend to always be a tough out in March and Akron has lost a few close games against other top mid-major schools.

– 11:30 pm – WAC brings the night-owls a chance to watch Grand Canyon (28-4) against UT-Arlington. Grand Canyon has non-conference victories against San Diego State and San Francisco.

Well maybe I almost will have all the games here – we can’t leave out the major conferences. Lets start with championships

– 6 pm Big 12 – #1 Houston vs #7 Iowa State – might be the biggest game of the night with the top 2 teams from the toughest conference playing.

– 6:30 pm Big East – #2 Connecticut vs #10 Marquette would normally top the list of games if it wasn’t for the Big 12 game above it.

– 6 pm Mountain West – San Diego State vs New Mexico. Both these teams should probably be in the tournament, but it is still unclear to me if the Committee will take 6 teams from a conference not considered one of the major 6. Those 6 teams deserve it but perception and money are tough opponents. New Mexico probably needs to win this game more as I suspect the Aztecs are safer with their profile.

– 8:30 pm ACC – #4 North Carolina vs NC State – at the start of my bracketology, I had the Wolfpack as a long shot simply because a few wins could get them into the top 80 of the NET (where the conversation normally starts). Can they win 5 games in 5 days and punch their ticket to the dance? If they beat the Tar Heels, they will certainly have earned their spot.

– 9 pm Pac 12 – Colorado vs Oregon – if you believe Joe Lunardi, Colorado is one of the last 4 teams in and Oregon is not under consideration (which seems ridiculous – they finished 4th in the Pac 12 at 22-11 with a NET of 61). I can’t imagine the disrespect to the Pac 12 that in the final year of their existence that they only get 3 teams in the tournament – but if the media is right, Oregon needs to win this game to give them a chance at 4 (and that might simply steal the bid from Colorado).

That leaves us with the Big 10 and SEC. The Big 10 semi-finals have 4 teams likely safely in the tournament as all 4 of them are in the top 31 of the NET rankings. #3 Purdue opens the semis against Wisconsin at 1 pm while #13 Illinois takes on Nebraska at 3:30 pm.

The SEC semi-finalists might also all be in but it is less clear based on where they placed in the conference. #12 Auburn plays Mississippi State (who is ranked 32 in the NET but went 8-10 in the SEC) at 1 pm. And then at 3:30 pm, Florida (who is probably safely in with a NET ranking of 28) plays Texas A&M (who is more nervous with a NET ranking of 42 and a 9-9 conference record).

And with that, we have arrived at Signal Hill Park for Katie’s rugby game!!! Go Richmond Strikers Rugby!!!! And good luck to any of the teams you are rooting for today!!!! Enjoy Championship Saturday!!!!

Drifting in and out of consciousness, the Lunatic was lying in bed with the ACC semi-final playing on my laptop. I had made as much progress as I would on my bracketology – which is currently a mess. And with my daughter’s rugby game Saturday morning in Washington, DC, I couldn’t afford to try to model deep into the night.

So, I turned on the game, got ready for sleep and started drifting away. It was the classic Virginia game of them holding the ball for the full shot clock trying desperately to score and then playing their trademark defense on the other side. It was enough for my eyes to close.

I semi-wake up as I hear the announcers talking about it is crazy that NC State is still in this game after a flagrant foul but the Cavaliers can still wrap it up here. I have no clue what happened but I glance up to see the score is 58-55 with Virginia’s Isaac McKneely standing on the free throw line with 6 seconds left.

Then I watch as the Cavalier’s best FT shooter of the season at 84.7% misses the free throw. The Wolfpack’s Casey Morsell grabbed the rebound and quickly sent the ball up the court to Michael O’Connell, and he starts dribbling as fast as possible down the sideline across half court. He gets as far as he can before the clock gets to one second, and throws up a three-pointer from right in front of his coach on the bench. The ball seems to go off the backboard, rattles around on the rim and falls through the basketball – sending the Wolfpack bench into a frenzy as the stadium erupts.

In the overtime, the Wolfpack simply kept giving the ball to big man DJ Burns Jr – who dominated the overtime with 7 points. Burns seemed to bully his way into the lane whenever he wanted and there was nothing that Virginia could do to stop him. Virginia would miss 4 three point shots in the final 30 seconds, the Wolfpack’s DJ Horne hit 4 free throws, and NC State went on to win 73-65 for their 4th straight win in 4 days and a date with #4 North Carolina to play for the ACC Championship Saturday night. They stated the week with a NET ranking of 83 and not in the bubble conversation. The Wolfpack are now at 68, forcing their way into the committee’s selection room, and one win away from stealing the ACC’s bid.

But NC State isn’t the only concern for the bubble and the Selection Committee. In the Pac 12 last night, Oregon upset #6 Arizona and Colorado upset #22 Washington State setting up a championship between two teams that certainly are not guaranteed to be in. In the Mountain West, San Diego St upset #18 Utah State while in a game that started after midnight – the weakest bubble team from that conference, New Mexico upset Colorado State to move to tonight’s final. We can’t leave out the SEC – where the top 3 seeds lost to Florida, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. And of course, we already knew the Atlantic 10 had a bid being stolen with the top 4 seeds all losing in the quarterfinals.

There are good reasons to take so many teams this year – there are also good reasons to choose a different one. The definition of the bubble always means you have some type of flaw. The best advice has always been to take the decision out of the Committee’s hands and win the conference tournament and the automatic bid that comes with it. But with so many bubble teams taking that advice to heart and playing on Saturday, it is tough to guess what the committee is thinking. Normally, the committee already has selected their at large teams and have started the topic of seeding by this point. I am not sure if they can possibly be at that point with so many teams making a late push.

At least I think that is what happened last night. Maybe it was all a dream. For many of these bubble teams, they probably want the Lunatic to keep dreaming. For those who lost early in the week, they are probably hoping for the dream to not turn into a nightmare. As for the Lunatic, any dream involving basketball is good – let the Madness begin!!!!

It was pretty clear that Purdue, Houston and UConn had wrapped up 1 seeds going into the week. So, the drama became who would take the last #1 seed. The polls and the regular season championships of the major conferences suggested it was a race between #4 North Carolina, #5 Tennessee and #6 Arizona.

Well – the Tar Heels handled their business in the ACC semi-finals – fighting off a desperate Pitt team for a 72-65 victory. But with Tennessee losing by 17 in the SEC quarterfinals to Mississippi State and Arizona losing by 8 in the Pac 12 semifinals to Oregon, the other two leaders will be sitting out the rest of the weekend.

And considering that UNC also beat Tennessee in the regular season, I suspect that ends the conversation. The Lunatic is predicting that the Tar Heels will join Houston, UConn and Purdue on the top line. I am not sure how I will rank order the Cougars, Huskies and Boilers – but I am not sure that matters to his bracketology – a 1 seed is a 1 seed.

It does look like the bubble is getting tighter and tighter, as bubble teams fight their way to their conference championship games. It should be a really interesting Selection Sunday.