Stomp The Lunatic

The Lunatic might be getting old. Normally, by this point, I have Excel sheets tracking the NET, half of the bubble teams ranked, and some type of plan for my bracketology page. This year, he has simply gotten caught up with actually watching the games. Last night definitely had some fun ones. So, it only makes sense as I have some time before work to procrastinate that task longer and provide a viewing guide telling you almost every game that is happening – because they are all worth watching!!!!

In the Noon / 1 pm games, my Boilers kick off their Big 10 tournament against Michigan State – who is likely in but would love one large upset on their resume. Then, in the SEC, Tennessee starts their campaign for the final #1 seed as they play a Mississippi State team that desperately needs a win to stay in the conversation.

In the mid-afternoon games, Wisconsin and Northwestern should be a great game of two teams that probably should be in. However, the best game maybe of the entire day comes from the SEC as #15 South Carolina plays #12 Auburn.

At 5:30 pm, the Big East semi-finals kick off with #2 Connecticut playing against St. John’s, who might have already fought their way into the dance, but certainly could use another victory. A key point is this game is at Madison Square Garden – so it is a home game for St. John’s.

Around 7 pm, pick your major conference:

• Big 10 – Illinois plays a Ohio State team trying to go on such a win streak with their interim coach that they sneak into the tournament
• Big 12 – #1 Houston vs #25 Texas Tech as a pair of ranked teams play in the semis
• ACC – #4 North Carolina continues their search for the #1 seed against Pitt, another bubble team desperately needing a win
• SEC – #9 Kentucky takes on Texas A&M, who also is a bubble team needing a big victory
• Pac 12 (8 pm) – #6 Arizona plays Oregon, so this is a big chance for the bubbly Ducks to get one last ranked victory
• Big East (8 pm) – #10 Marquette plays Providence – who made a big case for themselves on the bubble yesterday against Creighton and could make a bigger case tonight in the semis.

The 9 pm games also have their drama.

• Big 10 – Nebraska and Indiana is one of the biggest bubble team / long shot team games of the day.
• Big 12 – #7 Iowa State vs #14 Baylor should be a fantastic game that would resemble a Sweet 16 game.
• Mt West – #18 Utah State vs San Diego State in the semis of a crazy competitive conference
• SEC – #19 Alabama vs Florida – as the Gators try to build their resume against the Tide
• ACC – Virginia vs NC State – are the Wolfpack moved onto the bubble yet. Has Virginia done enough to move into the tournament. So many bubble questions.

And of course, if you want to stay up super late. You have the Pac 12 semi of #22 Washington State against Colorado – a team I think is in, but many experts say they are on the brink of the bubble. And the night finishes with a huge bubble match-up in the Mountain West, as Colorado State plays New Mexico. Both these teams were the most vulnerable bubble teams from the conference going into the tournament. And both came up with huge wins Thursday to make it to the semi-finals.

So much to watch – enjoy the games!

What is happening in Brooklyn! Apparently, March Madness has begun in the Atlantic 10, as all 4 of the top seeds have been eliminated. #1 Richmond lost by 5 to 9 seed St Joseph’s. Then, #4 Massachusetts lost to 5 seed VCU by 14. In the thriller of the night, #2 Loyola Chicago lost by 1 in double overtime to 7 seed St Bonaventure. And then, 6 seed Duquesne didn’t want to be left out of the party and pulled off the biggest upset of the day with an 8 point victory – against nationally ranked Dayton.

And the bubble gets a little bit tighter – none of VCU, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, or St Joseph’s was expected to be in the tournament – but one of them is going to earn a bid.

What a great day for Pi Day – the Thursday of Championship Week!!!!

It has been a tough day for mid-major champs. Richmond and Loyola Chicago both got knocked out of the Atlantic 10 tournament, and Toledo got knocked out of the MAC tournament.

How about the NC State Wolfpack who upset Duke!!! Add Pitt’s victory over Wake Forest, and now the ACC bubble has become extremely cloudy. I have no clue who is making it.

Since I have no clue who is safe on the bubble, I probably should start to figure that out. I am running out of time – as are some of the other bubble teams that lost tonight. Either that or tell you all the games I want to watch tomorrow – which is all of them!!!!

Maybe I will just watch one of the many late games that are good – hey look, Dayton is losing at halftime to Duquesne – that will ensure a bid to be stolen if the all top 4 seeds lose in the quarterfinals. Of course, Virginia/Boston College, Marquette/Villanova or Baylor/Cincinnati could be more interesting games – but they are just starting. I can always come back to that after the upset alert is over.

Wish I had some pie to go along with the basketball – oh well. Happy Pi Day!!!!

As I sit here watching Kansas play Cincinnati, I realized that my modeling chances for the evening are waning. So why not keep blogging. By the way, I have to say that the bubble is fascinating this year – I really am not sure what is going to happen. With Kansas State winning against Texas, and Cincinnati having a chance to knock off Kansas, can 11 Big 12 teams really make the tournament. I do think it is a win or else game for Cincinnati – I don’t know that 19-14 with 7-12 in the conference going against a team without its two leading scorers is good enough. But right now the Bearcats are up 14 – so they look good. That being said, it is still early.

Thursday is typically the classic bubble day, as the Big 12, ACC, Big East, Pac 12 and Mountain West all have their quarterfinals – and the 2nd rounds of the Big 10 and SEC are going. So, if you want to watch a bubble team, you can simply turn on the TV. I will say that I think the Big 10 and SEC hurt their bubble teams. The quarterfinals which will give a 7 seed on the bubble a shot at the 2 seed doesn’t happen until Friday. The Selection Committee makes their initial board tonight, and while teams can make their way on and off that board, the further into the weekend, I suspect the less likely for movement.

If you are looking for the best basketball, simply go to Kansas City (or watch ESPN) to see the Big 12 championship. Look at this schedule starting at 12:30 pm EST and going all day:

• #20 BYU vs #25 Texas Tech
• #1 Houston vs TCU (who is not a lock but probably is in)
• #7 Iowa State vs Kansas St (who clearly is on the bubble and might need another win to make it)
• #14 Baylor vs the winner of #16 Kansas / Cincinnati – so we either get to see how the injured Jayhawks due against a ranked team, or see if Cincinnati can move their way off the bubble and into the dance

You really can’t get much better than that. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t good basketball out there. Teams like #2 UConn, #4 UNC, and #6 Arizona open their conference tournaments – but their opponents probably need to be still playing on Saturday to even move onto the bubble. Teams finishing with 16+ losses like Florida State, Xavier and USC don’t get at large bids. But there are plenty of interesting bubble teams still playing. I could name off almost every game tomorrow, but here are the ones that are most interesting to me.

• Atlantic 10 co-champ and local favorite, Richmond opens against St. Joseph’s – I can’t see the Spiders making it without getting to the final. (Same can be said for Loyola with their game against St. Bonaventure)
• As a Big 10 fan, Michigan State vs Minnesota is interesting to me to see if the Spartans can advance against another 18-13 team.
• Mississippi State got ranked and then lost a bunch of games at the end of the season now desperately need a win against LSU (who could possibly get in the conversation with some wins)
• St. John’s vs Seton Hall is a classic bubble game, with the winner probably earning a chance to upset Connecticut. That is actually a prize – since no one is going to blame you for losing to the Huskies, but you will certainly be win if you can knock the defending national champions out of the Big East tournament.
• Wake Forest vs Pitt in the ACC could be against 2 teams both in the tournament, or could be 2 teams both out of the tournament trying to make one last good impression. The ACC bubble is confusing as always.
• UNLV gets to host San Diego State in the Mountain West – the Running Rebels are the Mt West team left out of the conversation for the bubble – which is unfair. Their 12-6 record was actually better than the Aztecs.
• Oregon probably desperately needs a win against a tougher than expected UCLA.
• Are there any crazier bubble teams than Ohio State and Iowa? OSU started the season 11-2, crash and burned so badly in January and early February that they fired their coach, and then responded with a 5-1 record for their interim coach. The Hawkeyes finished strongly with a 4-2 record (only losses both to Illinois) to get onto the bubble.
• Providence is clearly part of the Big East bubble, but also has Creighton – so a win could clinch things for them.
• NC State has seen their NET ranking move into the top 80 and will continue to rise with their big victory over Syracuse today – they next get Duke, which would certainly be a big game to have.
• Ole Miss vs Texas A&M is for two SEC teams that I think probably need to win 3-4 games, so this could easily be an elimination game.
• The evening games of the Mountain West include Colorado State vs. Nevada and New Mexico vs Boise State. Should be a good time in Las Vegas.

Some of the other evening games might be more interesting based on who wins later tonight – but I have already listed off too many games to watch as it is. And the second half of the Kansas game has started – although maybe I should be checking out the fact that Boston College is up double digits against Clemson, or that 3-28 DePaul is up a basket against Villanova.

So much basketball – so little time. Enjoy the games!

Well, there is trouble ahead for the Lunatic as well. If the Lunatic was sane, he would be working on a model to predict what the committee will do so I could create an awesome bracketology page with analytics and sage wisdom. Thankfully, we know the answer to this question – the Lunatic is certainly not sane. The blog is calling – so is a desperate plea for sleep that will obviously be ignored.

So lets talk about the long week that the Indiana State Sycamores are having. The Sycamores had a fantastic season, going 28-6 overall and 17-3 in the Missouri Valley to win the regular season championship by a game over Drake. In week 15, they entered both the AP (23) and Coaches (24) Polls. At 22-3 and a NET ranking of 20, it looked like they would be one of those rare mid-major schools that were locks to make the tournament even if disaster happened in the MVC tournament.

But then disaster started. The Sycamores celebrated their entry into the polls as clearly a team with a target on their back. They lost at home by 13 to Illinois State and then on the road by 5 to Southern Illinois. But Indiana State did win the last 4 games to hang on to the MVC regular season title. And then, they fell behind in the MVC championship game by 13 at half to Drake. That lead grew to 18 points with 10 minutes to play before they came alive. A 24-5 run gave them a lead late, but Drake stopped the momentum and finished with a 4 point victory – taking the MVC’s ticket to the dance with them.

With a NET ranking of 29, the Sycamores are still clearly in the discussion. But a closer look at their resume brings more questions than answers. The only quad 1 victory they have is a road win at Bradley on December 2nd. That home loss to Illinois State is classified as a Quad 4 loss (making them only 1 of 2 teams in the top 30 with that bad of a loss). Their only other wins against top 100 teams are their home wins against Drake and Bradley. They do have a 2 point victory against MAC regular season champion Toledo – but with that being a Quad 3 win – it probably won’t help them.

But the toughest point for them is the only two major conference teams they played. They played at Alabama in their second game of the season – where the Tide beat them by 22 points. They then travelled to East Lancing at the end of December, where they were down only 1 point with 7 minutes to played before the Spartans ran away for a 12 point victory. So, the only 2 games they played against teams likely in the tournament as at-large teams led to double digit losses.

And that is the unfairness of being in the Missouri Valley. The Spartans beat Illinois by 8 at home and no one is even questioning if the Illini should be dancing. They also lost on the road by double digits to both Northwestern and Wisconsin – yet, the Spartans are probably safely in the tournament. But imagine how this conversation would be different for the Spartans if they only had those two road games against teams likely in the tournament. People would be asking – who did they beat?

Alabama was 14-2 at home with 11 of those victories being by double digits. Michigan State was 14-4 at home with 10 of those victories being by double digits – and yet those were the only 2 chances the Sycamores had to prove themselves. If 3 or 4 bubble teams had to come to Terre Haute to play, I bet Indiana State probably wins those games.

But major conference teams don’t make the foolish decision of heading to Terre Haute – many won’t even let the Sycamores come to their home to play. So we are left with the question of what is the right picture of this team. Are they the regular season champion who won 28 games that the NET rankings consider one of the top 30 teams in the country? Or are they a team that simply won a lot of games against weak competition and didn’t beat any tournament worthy teams? Sadly, the answer is they are both.

Personally, I hope the Selection Committee gives the Sycamores a chance. But honestly – as I try to predict the bracket, I am not sure they make it – I certainly have seen other regular season mid-major champions with great NET rankings get left out. And that fact will make this week become a very long week in Indiana.

Well – I have a crazy busy day tomorrow, so while the day is not completely decided, lets talk about Wednesday’s games.

Before we do that, congratulations to Charleston, Oakland and Wagner for winning their conference tournaments.

There are three finals:

5 pm – Southland – McNeese (29-3) vs Texas A&M – Corpus Christi / Nicholls winner

7 pm – Patriot – Colgate (24-9) vs Lehigh (14-17)

11:30 pm – Big Sky – Montana St/Sacramento St winner vs Montana / Idaho St winner

But the bubble starts getting interesting on Wednesday – there are so many good games for either bubble teams that simply can not afford a bad loss vs. bubble teams playing each other. We even have a few ranked teams playing thanks to the ridiculously tough Big 12.

12:30 pm – Big 12 has BYU vs UCF

2:30 pm – ACC has Wake Forest vs Notre Dame

3 pm – Big 12 has TCU vs Oklahoma

4 pm – Big East has Butler vs Xavier

4:30 pm – Mt West has Colorado St vs San Jose St

6:30 pm – Big East has Providence va Georgetown

7 pm – Mt West has New Mexico vs Air Force

7 pm – Big 12 has Texas vs Kansas St

7 pm – ACC has Syracuse vs NC State

9 pm – Big East has Villanova vs DePaul

9:30 pm – Big 12 has Kansas vs Cincinnati

9:30 pm – ACC has Clemson vs Boston College

11:30 pm – Pac 12 has Utah vs Arizona St

So many games to watch tomorrow!!!

Well, I spent a bunch of time last night trying to create a clearer table of conference’s and what teams and still in the running – but it is still a lot of info. Quickly – here is the viewing guide (with no commentary since I have lots to do.

There are 5 bids being awarded tonight – the one that people are probably excited for is the WCC powerhouses in Las Vegas – but all 5 have the conference regular season champs hoping for one more win to secure their ticket to the dance

9 pm on ESPN – WCC – regular season champ #21 St. Mary’s (25-7) vs #17 Gonzaga (25-6)

7 pm on CBSSN – Coastal – regular season champ Charleston (26-7) vs Stony Brook (20-14)

7 pm on ESPN – Horizon – regular season champ Oakland (22-11) vs Milwaukee (20-14)

7 pm on ESPN2 – NEC – regular season champ Merrimack (21-11) vs Wagner (15-15)

9:30 pm on CBSSN – Summit – regular season champ South Dakota St (21-12) vs Denver (17-16)

As for other regular season conference champions in action, the two of most interest are McNeese St (28-3) playing Lamar (19-13) in the 6:30 pm Southland semi-final and Vermont (26-6) playing New Hampshire (16-14) in the 5 pm America East semi-final.

The Big 12, ACC and Atlantic 10 also start their tournaments today – if you are watching the bubble, the one to watch is at 3 pm in the Big 12. NET ranking 41 Cincinnati (18-13) opens their tournament against West Virginia (9-22). While the Big 12 is brutal and it might be too much for the committee to send 11 teams, the Bearcats don’t want to make that decision easier by losing to the Mountaineers.

If you are following long shots, NC State (17-14) starts their desperation run today against Louisville (8-23). I am not sure that I see a scenario outside of winning 5 ACC Tournament games that gets the Wolfpack into the dance, but if they make it to the Friday semi-finals, it will include victories against Syracuse tomorrow and Duke on Thursday – who knows if that will vault them into the bubble discussions.

Enjoy the games!

Congratulations to James Madison and Samford, as they won their conference tournaments. And the Selection Committee thanks the Dukes and Bulldogs, since they do not need to consider leaving out a team that has won 30 or 28 games. Both teams managed to win one more – and make the debate a seeding debate instead of a selection debate.

And as I realize it is almost 10 pm, I start to realize the potential for significant late evenings. The Lunatic is getting old – not sure sleep deprivation is a good idea. Need to consider if I create my conference board to be used for bracketology – or try to get some sleep before the tournament comes.

Oh look – St. Mary’s is only up 7 at halftime against Santa Clara. Maybe I can watch one more half of basketball…..

This was fun last year – so I will try to do again. Not sure I will update every day this week between taking Katie to rugby practices and figuring out my own bracketology.

Today and tomorrow are important days for the mid-major tournaments. Most of the major conference bubble teams don’t start playing until Wednesday or Thursday, so it is an opportunity for the conference championships to take the stage.

Two more teams will punch their ticket to the dance – both playing on the ESPN channels at 7pm EST. In the Sun Belt, 2nd seeded James Madison (30-3) will take on the Arkansas State (18-15) team that shockingly took out Appalachian State on a wild and well defended buzzer beater on Sunday. Both the bubble teams and JMU fans will be rooting for the favorite – it is unclear that the committee would leave out a 30 win team, but with the only win on that resume against a possible tournament team being their opener at Michigan State, it would be great for everyone if they simply take the Sun Belt’s auto-bid. It should be a good game as these teams played to a 4 pt game in the season – and Arkansas State is playing their best basketball of the season at the right time.

In the Southern, regular season champion Samford (28-5) takes on East Tennessee State (19-15). Samford swept the regular season with a close 3 point win at ETSU and a 16 point win at home, so they will need to win one more time to go dancing. ETSU has already upset the 2 seed (UNC-Greensboro) and an exciting overtime victory over the 3 seed (Chattanooga) so it should also be a great game.

After that, the West Coast conference has their semi-finals starting at 9 pm – as their top 4 teams will fight it out. This is always a great night (especially if you are a nightowl and can stay up until 1:30-2 am). Don’t think the new polls are out yet – but #23 St Mary’s plays first against Santa Clara, and #19 Gonzaga plays San Francisco. While basketball fans are probably hoping for a rematch in Las Vegas between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, the bubble is desperately hoping that San Francisco or Santa Clara don’t become bid-stealers over the next two evenings.

The regular season champions from the Coastal (Charleston), Horizon (Oakland) and Summit (South Dakota State) conferences also play in their semi-finals tonight as they look to keep their dreams of going to the dance alive – so lots of good basketball tonight!! And a chance to maybe check out a team that possibly will be in that 12-14 range which always provide the fun upsets that make March special (if you are looking for that, definitely check out JMU, Samford, and Charleston).

Enjoy the games!!!!

In the Big South, fifth seeded Longwood (21-13) managed to make their 2nd NCAA Tournament in the last three years. They upset regular season champion High Point on Saturday in the semi-finals. And they rode that momentum to jump out to a 31-14 lead in the first half over 2 seed UNC-Asheville and never looked back on their way to win the Big South Conference Tournament Championship.

In the Missouri Valley, regular season champion Indiana State (28-6) will have a long week ahead of them. They had an emotional roller coaster today as they fell behind 67-49 with 10 minutes to play, came charging back to take the lead 76-74 with 3 1/2 minutes, and then watched as Drake went on a 10-4 run to finish and claim the MVC championship. So, Drake (28-6) will be celebrating back to back MVC Tournament titles, and Indiana State will have to hope that their NET ranking of 26 is enough to get them an at-large bid.

Finally, in the Atlantic Sun, 2nd seeded Stetson (22-12) beat 4th seeded Austin Peay in an exciting finish to win 94-91. The Hatters’ Jalen Blackmon drove to the basket, made the layup and drew a foul with 71 seconds left to break a tie game. Stetson hit their free throws to lock up the game, and win the Atlantic Sun conference tournament. This was definitely a special moment as it will be the first time in school history that Stetson will head to the NCAA Tournament, and you could tell the students were excited as they flooded onto the court to celebrate with their team.

Congratulations to Longwood, Drake and Stetson – who will join Morehead State in the dance.