Stomp The Lunatic

I was at a meeting at work, answering questions about some of the project our team was working on, when all of a sudden my phone blows up. First my son sends me a text. Then I received an email from a friend who enters the pool every year. Then my roommate from college sent me a text. And I knew the March had happened. I tried desperately to try to remember who was playing. When my meeting was over, I looked to try to find out what carnage had happened and heard a sound.

That sound was the collective deep breath as 88 of us gave a sigh of relief that our bracket wasn’t completely destroyed within the first 5 hours of the tournament, while the rest of the world gave a groan of disappointment as we didn’t get a 16 seed upsetting the overall #1 seed.

You have to give the five starters of Siena a ton of credit as they played their hearts out and literally played the entire game. The first bench player for Siena apparently came into the game with 10 seconds in the game – likely to intentionally foul.

Siena was up 11 at halftime and had the tournament favorites on the ropes. With 8 minutes left, Gavin Doty hit a three pointer to keep the Saints up 5. And then the Blue Devils led by Cayden and Cameron Boozer, Isaiah Evans, and an incredible display of team defense went on an 11-0 run over the next 6.5 minutes, and the Blue Devils survived with a 71-65 victory.

And I hear Kelly Clarkson in the back of my mind singing, “What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger!”

I know I have another game to write about, as Siena’s upset bid failed, but that was not the case for all the mid-major teams playing. I need to find a replay to see what I missed. I know it had to be exciting.

The TCU vs Ohio State game has started and so it is official. The brackets are now locked and it is time to Stomp the Lunatic! There is always some cleaning that I have to do when I get home from work, but if my administrative site is rig hot, we have 341 entries this year!!!! So that means that there are lots of you ready to stomp by sleep-deprived and fan-based picks into the ground.

Please check your brackets and make sure you see them in the standings page. It is a lot easier for me to fix any possible site issues if I know about them as early as possible. For example, I already know I need to clean up the standings page to have the correct regions for everyone’s winners – I seem to forget that every year. But the important part is making sure your picks are in the site. We can fix the titles of the standings at any time – but we need to make sure your picks are correctly entered before too many games are completed.

Hopefully, we have lots of fun games today – the first 4 days are always good for some classic games!!! Good luck to everyone!!!!

So very excited – and what a great game to get us started as TCU plays Ohio State at 12:15 pm. As of now we have 272 entries – if you waited to the last minute to enter your picks, that minute is now here!!!

Hope you all enter and that you all have a great time enjoying the Madness!!!! March is here – it is time to Stomp the Lunatic!!!!

I can see why Miami (OH) went 31-0. Even if you are a good defensive team, it is tough to guard a team that is going to shoot 41 three-point shots. When they did go inside the three point line, they were extremely efficient – going 13 – 23. That is just tough – you stop the drive and they just kick it out. And they are not afraid of shooting it from deep.

Add into it that the fans in Dayton were ready to explode whenever one of the three-pointers went down, and that lead to the Redhawks winning 89-79 over SMU to win their first NCAA Tournament games since 1999. The fans were so crazy, there was even a point where a bunch of them came out in speedos to try to distract the free throw shooter (which he did miss to delight the crowd).

Congratulations to the Redhawks for advancing to the next round!!!!!

I thought I would try to get ahead of my handicapping by getting all the first round games in tonight – but I have run out of steam. Still, the page has all the updates for Thursday’s games that start at noon.

Just 11 hours until the Round of 64 starts!!!! Make sure you get your picks in before Noon tomorrow!!!!

It could just be looking at too many handicapping stats. It could be that I am just tired. Or maybe it is simply that the top teams in the country have seemed to dominate teams throughout the season. But I was a little sad as I looked at my picks that were relatively void of upsets. Because the Lunatic loves it when the underdog wins.

In the first rounds, I am just not that impressed with the mid-majors. Almost always a 12 seed wins a game, and sometimes a 13 seed wins. But the teams I thought had the best chances to pull upsets, Northern Iowa and McNeese drew hot St. John’s and Vanderbilt. Typically, you see one of those updates happen because you get a mid-major champion playing against a team that was struggling down the stretch. Instead, you get a team that was the regular season and conference champion of the Big East. So, I tried to take some 11 seeds here and there, but I can’t see them continuing to then beat teams like Michigan State or Illinois. And it just keeps leading to the chalk winning. At one point when I was picking my sane picks, I had all four #1 seeds in the Final Four before I erased my bracket, took a step back to watch the Miami / SMU game, and then figured out what 2 or 3 seeds I was willing to give upsets to.

In my sane picks, I got Duke beating Houston and Arizona beating Iowa State as the Blue Devils go through the best teams of the Big 12 to win the championship against Arizona.

In my insane picks, I still have Duke beating Houston to get to the final. But I have Purdue upsetting Arizona, Michigan and then the Blue Devils to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.

In the last 2 hours, we have had over 40 entries as we are now up to 222 entries. With the typical last minute rush, we will hopefully break 300 entries again – which always leads to a fun tournament.

Don’t miss your chance to Stomp the Lunatic!!!!! Get your picks in – you have only 14 hours (basically until Noon tomorrow) to make your picks and help us all Stomp the Lunatic!

There was a point in time where Prairie View was 11-17 in February. But the Panthers won 7 straight games to rise to 8th in the SWAC and then win the SWAC Conference Tournament to earn their spot in Dayton. At 300th in the NET rankings, they were the worst team statistically to make the NCAA Tournament. So, no one would be surprised if the lost today to Lehigh, a team that finished 2nd in the Patriot league.

Well, the Panthers have now won their 8th game in a row, as their defense frustrated Lehigh into 16 turnovers with 9 of their shots being blocked. And unlike yesterday, there was no last second run to make it close – Prairie View kept the pressure on, beating the Mountain Hawks 67-55.

It is just a reminder that analysis can predict a lot. But at the end of the day, the games are played on the court – not on paper. Congratulations to the SWAC Conference Tournament Champions, Prairie View A&M.

Meanwhile, as we wait for the late game in Dayton, we get the news that SMU star player BJ Edwards will not be able to play as his injured ankle is still not ready to play. I do feel a little uncomfortable about this – SMU finished on a bad losing streak without their star player, but the news that he would be able to play this week was enough for the Selection Committee to give the Mustangs the final spot instead of other teams. One has to wonder if the committee would have gave the spot to streaking Oklahoma if they knew Edwards was unable to play.

Will this be the break that Miami needs to win in their first game this season against a power conference team – or will someone step up for the Mustang to keep their season alive until their star player can join them.

Not that people need help Stomping the Lunatic. But if you are not sure who to take, there is a method that helps.

Ken Pomeroy is one of the leading statisticians in college basketball analytics, and his models identify the most efficient offenses and defenses in college hoops. I read different cutoffs as people try to slide the outliers in – but in general something like 20-21 of the last 23 champions have been balanced enough to be top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

So if you want to know who that leaves you with….

• Duke (Off – 4, Def – 2)
• Arizona (Off – 6, Def – 3)
• Michigan (Off – 8, Def – 1)
• Florida (Off – 9, Def – 6)
• Houston (Off – 13, Def – 5)
• Louisville (Off – 19, Def – 25)
• Iowa State (Off – 20, Def – 4)
• Michigan State (Off – 24, Def – 13)

Here are some of the teams that missed out because their defense just missed the cut.

• Purdue (Off – 1, Def – 36)
• Illinois (Off – 2, Def 28)
• Vanderbilt (Off – 7, Def 31)
• Texas Tech (Off – 12, Def 33)

Here are some teams that missed out because their offense just missed the cut.

• Gonzaga (Off – 29, Def – 9)
• UConn (Off – 30, Def – 11)
• Tennessee (Off – 34, Def – 15)
• Virginia (Off – 27, Def – 16)
• St. Mary’s (Off – 40, Def – 20)

Finally, here are the teams that have a top 25 ranking in one measure but not a top 40 ranking in the other.

• Best remaining offenses – Alabama (3), Arkansas (5), BYU (10), Wisconsin (11), Georgia (14), Ohio State (16), Texas (18), UCLA (21), Santa Clara (22)
• Best remaining defenses – Nebraska (7), Kansas (10), St. John’s (12), Clemson (21), TCU (23), Northern Iowa (24)

I do think it is interesting that of the top 5 offenses, the only one with a top defense is Duke. But all 5 of the top defenses rank also have a top offense.

I guess the phrase defense wins championships might be more prophetic than we think. Anyways, hope that helps you with your brackets. Now I am off to see what other analytics I can come up with before eventually picking Purdue.

I will say this – because I do think analytics can really help you win a bracket pool like this. But there is a reality you have to live with. Let me approach it as a Purdue fan – lets say that you are picking the West region and while you can certainly see some teams with the potential to beat Arizona or Purdue, the odds tell you that these two teams will be in the regional final. The Kenpom approach says you should pick Arizona – and since they are the 1 seed and have only lost twice all season, this feels statistically the right answer.

So lets say you go with the stats, and the games start happening and the bracket breaks as you expected. As a Purdue fan, you desperately want to see your Boilers return to Indianapolis for the Final Four. But this will blow up your chance to win the pool – you went with the statistics and picked Arizona. So now you are conflicted. Are you really going to be happy if you come in 5th in the pool because you were right that Arizona beats Purdue? Of course not – you want to see your team win.

I personally feel you should always try to set yourself up so that you don’t end up being disappointed if you are correct. Sure, a little bit of realism is probably needed. Being from Richmond, I would like to see VCU go far. But picking them to the Final Four is probably a little crazy, even for me. But still I firmly believe you should pick with your heart so you can truly root for your picks.

If you are like me, that is a good way to use the upset pool. Pick with your heart in your entry trying to win the upset pool and pick with the statistics in your standard pool. And maybe you get lucky and one of them wins. Whichever way you choose, I hope it leads to success for you.

Well, I went 1-1 in both games – if I got the totals right, I missed the spread. If I got the spread correct, I missed the totals. So, that seems about right for my handicapping.

But I did get all the formatting cleaned up so that I could have the nicer view of the Handicapping page (and so that 32 First Round games don’t suddenly start flooding the blog).

Right now, I have only tonight’s games and yesterday’s results in the page (I have Lehigh and Miami OH to cover the spreads). I am really excited to see the Miami vs. SMU game. I want to see if Miami can prove all the critics wrong and beat a power conference team. I want to see if with BJ Edwards back, will the Mustangs turn into the dangerous team that could make a run in the tournament. It should be a fantastic game.

So, as the Lunatic goes through his check-list (that only exists in his head which probably explains why he is so far behind). He needs to pick all the games (and at least get Thursday’s games by the spreads – which is a lot harder than simply picking that the #1 seed will beat the #16 seed).

Will I use sound analysis to pick my brackets this year? Or will I get paralyzed with so much data to analyze that I will run out of time and pick wildly around midnight so that I at least have a bracket to root for? I like to believe it will be the first – but something tells me it will be the second.

Enjoy tonight’s games! And don’t forget to make your picks to Stomp the Lunatic!!!

With about 3 minutes left in the game, Texas’ Chendall Weaver hit a free throw to give the Longhorns what looked like a comfortable 9 point lead against the NC State Wolfpack. But remember, no lead is safe in March.

With under 2 minutes to play, Tre Holloman drives to the basket, gets fouled, and makes both the layup and free throw to cut the lead to 6 points. An immediate foul sent Dailyn Swain to the line – where he calmly made both of them. But the Wolfpack’s Paul McNeil Jr would come back and hit a three-pointer, and suddenly that comfortable lead is down to 5 points with 90 seconds to play.

Texas struggles to break the press, and eventually turn it over. Quadir Copeland picks up the ball and drives to the hoop but gets his layup blocked by Tramon Mark. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, the ball would go to NC State, and they would find Paul McNeil Jr for another three-pointer. We have a 2 point game with a minute to play!!!!

Texas almost turns the ball over again but they finally get the ball in successfully, and run down the clock. The ball ends up into Tramon Mark, and he starts to try to get free at the top of the key but he is guarded tightly. But big players make shots – Mark gets almost to the foul line, takes a dribble to his right as if he is going to drive to the lane, pivots and hits a ridiculous fade-away shot to extend the lead back to 4 points at 66-62.

But the Wolfpack were not done, they got the ball out to Darrion Williams on the wing and with a defender in his face, he drills the three-pointer to make it a one point game.

Texas’ struggles against the press continue as they get trapped in the corner and have to call their final timeout. But this time, when they get it in, Dailyn Swain loses control of the ball and it goes out-of-bounds – the Wolfpack have a chance to take the lead! They get the ball into Tre Holloman and he drives straight to the hoop, where he gets fouled. So, the 80+% free throw shooter goes to the line and misses the first free throw long. But he hits the second to tie the game.

Texas brings the ball down and runs down the clock. They get the ball into Tramon Mark on the wing. Mark drives to the basket, and with very little time on the clock launches a high arching shot over his defender, and the ball rattles in the basket with 1 second to play.

After Texas got lucky that the refs didn’t call a technical foul for their bench sprinting onto the court thinking the game is over, NC State got one more desperation chance – but the shot gets blocked by Swain and the game ends with a 68-66 victory by the Longhorns.

First of all, I need to thank Charlie. Because with the lead being close to double digits, I started to nod off before he called me about trying to logon to the webpage. Once I helped him navigate the site, I got to see the final 3 minutes of chaos in Dayton.

Second of all, I have to mention Karma again. Remember how the Lunatic said in his Handicapping post that many of his Locks end up failing. He locked the over at 158.5 points because when these teams played last time, they combined for 199 points. So, it makes sense that the Lunatic’s lock was wrong by 24.5 points. If Mark had missed his shot and the game went to overtime, the Lunatic probably still loses the over bet. Don’t mess with Karma!!!!

Finally, what a fantastic couple of games. March is known for wild comebacks, and in about a minute, both UMBC and NC State took 9 point leads that looked unsurmountable, and completely erased them. Sure, both their comebacks ended up falling just a basket short, but in both cases it was thanks to some last second heroics by the Howard Bison and Texas Longhorns.

I guess I need to go to sleep since I almost fell asleep earlier. Hope you all enjoyed the games – and that the rest of the tournament is as good as the games were tonight.

With two minutes left to play, Howard looked like they were safely advancing out of the first four with an 11 point lead for a date with Michigan.

Then, Caden Diggs hit a layup to cut the lead to 9. So, Howard ran the shot clock down but Cam Gillus missed a long jumper – still they took 30 seconds off the clock. Then, UMBC’s DJ Armstrong Jr got fouled in the lane and hit two free throws to cut the lead to 7. Howard looked clearly content to take another 30 seconds off the clock, so UMBC fouled Cam Gillus – and he missed the free throw. This time, it would be Caden Diggs heading to the line after being fouled, and his two free throw cut the lead to 5 with about a minute to play.

So, UMBC fouls Gillus again, and the 77% free throw shooter leaves it short, so the Retrievers rush down the court. They get the ball out to DJ Armstrong Jr on the wing, who takes a step back to the three point line and launches a shot over his defender. And it hits nothing but net – the lead is down to 2 points with 43 seconds.

With the momentum suddenly going against the Bison, they wind the clock down and get the ball inside to Bryce Harris. Looking like he might not even get a shot off – he takes a wild 10 foot turn-around jumper, and drills it with 14 seconds to extend the lead back to 4 points.

UMBC sprints down the court with Jah’Likai King needing only 7 seconds to get to the rim and cut the lead back to 2 points, and so they foul Howard’s Isaiah Brown with about 4 seconds left. Brown hits the first free throw, but misses the second, and the Retrievers have one last chance to tie the game. But Armstrong’s half court shot misses, and Howard escapes with an 86-83 victory.

Hopefully, that is a reminder to all favorites that the only lead that is safe is the one that happens when the clock strikes zero. The Retrievers cut an 11 point lead down to 2 in just over a minute. But unfortunately for them, their frantic comeback just ran out of time.

It was certainly an exciting way to start the tournament. 66 more games to go!!!!