Turn your TV to ESPN as the women’s championship is about to tip off. South Carolina has been the #1 team in the country this year. 5th ranked Connecticut seems to always be in the Final 4.
It should be a great battle – tune in and support these amazing athletes compete for a national championship!!!
What a crazy second half. What a crazy game. And at the end of the madness, it was North Carolina pulling the upset to win 81-77 and join Kansas in the championship game.
Duke started the half off to extend their lead to 7 off two dunks by Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero. Then, Caleb Love hit two three-pointers and led the Tar Heels on a 14-0 run. Then, Trevor Keels hit a three-pointer to start off a 10-2 run for the Blue Devils, finished up by one of multiple steals by Wendell Moore, Jr. that watched Moore drive to the basket and lay it in.
With about 10 minutes left in the game, Mark Williams picked up his 4th foul and had to deal with foul trouble. With about 7 minutes left, UNC guard RJ Davis picked up his 4th foul and had to deal with foul trouble. With about 5 minutes left, UNC forward Armando Bacot twisted his ankle after stepping on his teammate’s foot trying to block a shot. He had to leave the game, but he walked it off and somehow managed to come back in the game. There would be 18 lead changes throughout the game as one team would score just to watch the other team answer.
With 2:30 left in the game, UNC’s Brady Manek gives the Tar Heels a 2 point lead by hitting a free throw. Duke came down the court, and Paolo Banchero passed the ball to super-sub Trevor Keels who drilled the three pointer and the Blue Devils re-took the lead. But not for long…UNC’s Leaky Black found Manek outside for three, and after Manek had missed a wide-open three pointer and 3 of 4 free throws, he answers Keels with a three-pointer with a Duke player right in his face. Then, Keels missed a three pointer, but Paolo Banchero jumped high above everyone to get the offensive rebound and get the ball out to Wendell Moore Jr – who drains the three-pointer to give Duke the lead again.
RJ Davis drove to the basket and drew a blocking foul on Jeremy Roach. Davis’s two free throws made it 75-74 Tar Heels. Duke went down low to Mark Williams, and he got fouled by Armando Bacot. An ankle injury couldn’t stop Bacot from getting 11 points and 21 rebounds. But this shove into Williams’ back was his 5th foul – his incredible night was over.
But Mark Williams, a 75% free throw shooter, would miss the first free throw long off the back of the rim, and then miss the second free throw short off the front of the rim. The Blue Devils would need to get a stop. Caleb Love took the shot clock down as he waited at half court, dribbled toward the top of the key, suddenly stopped and drained a three-pointer to give UNC a commanding 4 point lead.
Jeremy Roach quickly drove down the court to cut the lead to 2 with a drive to the basket. But at this point, the Blue Devils have to foul. Caleb Love got the ball and hit one of two free throws to send the lead back to 3.
Trevor Keels got the ball outside but couldn’t get a clean three-pointer off, so he drove to the basket. He gets fouled driving to the basket, and he quickly throws the ball up with his right hand and it looks like he might be able to tie the game from the free throw line. But the refs judged that he was fouled before the shot. Keels, who scored 19 points from the Duke bench, hit the first free throw but missed the second. Somehow, Caleb Love managed to get the rebound over a leaping Banchero, and the Blue Devils would have to foul again.
This time, Love calmly sinks both free throws. Duke’s Keels put up a desperate three-pointer to try to cut the lead to 1 and give the Blue Devils one last time. But the three-pointer missed, RJ Davis would grab the rebound and dribble out the clock.
Coach K’s final season would have to settle for just one last Final Four. There would be no storybook ending to give the legend one last championship. Instead, the school that gave Coach K his first ever loss at Duke on December 5th, 1980 by a score of 78-76 would be the same arch-rivals who would give him the final loss of his career on April 2nd, 2022 by a score of 81-77. In between, Mike Kryzewski would coach the Blue Devils to 1,202 wins, 13 ACC regular season championships, 15 ACC tournament championships, 13 Final Fours, and 5 National Championships.
The North Carolina Tar Heels remarkable season continues on. Hubert Davis’s first season has been a roller-coaster. While starting 9-3 through December, the key games against Purdue, Tennessee and Kentucky all ended in losses, the last one to Kentucky by 29 points. The conversation started that UNC might not even make the tournament this year. On February 16th, UNC lost to Pittsburgh to fall to 18-8. The Tar Heels would go on to win the last 5 games of the regular season, including the game at Duke that gave them their big resume victory.
But the Tar Heels did not plan to go quietly. They destroyed Marquette to advance. They would beat #1 Baylor in overtime. They would end UCLA’s attempt to return to the Final Four. They made the clock strike midnight on Cinderella St. Peter’s. And now, they have ended Duke’s season to advance to the championship game.
So, we will have #1 seed Kansas against #8 seed North Carolina for the National Championship on Monday. And with the Tar Heels liking to run, and Kansas not being afraid of that high-paced game, it should be really entertaining! Congratulations to the North Carolina Tar Heels – they will join the Jayhawks Monday night to play for the title!
Would you expect anything more than the first half of Duke and UNC.
Carolina’s RJ Davis is so explosive and fast, as he leads the Tar Heels with 14 points.
Duke’s Paolo Banchero looks like no one can stop him when he goes to the basket, as he had 10 points.
Both teams started out a little tight but it still has been a fun, fast paced game. Big story might be the foul trouble for Duke’s big men. Mark Williams has only played the first 4 minutes of the game because he got 2 quick fouls.
Theo John came off the bench and gave Duke an instant spark. He scored 6 points of some big dunks, and added an amazing save that led to a layup. But he also ended up getting four fouls trying to stop UNC big man Armando Bacot, as Coach K left John in to avoid his starter picking up his third foul.
So that could be a huge story in the second half. Williams is rested having only played 4 minutes – but can he avoid fouls in the second half, because his backup only has 1 foul left.
It looked like we would go into the half tied, but Jeremy Roach made a great drive to the basket to score and get fouled. Roach hit the free throw and gave the Blue Devils a 37-34 lead.
Should be a great second half.
I am sitting here with my Cherry Vanilla ice cream from Gelati Celesti, they have just announced the starting lineups, mentioned that UNC’s Hubert Davis is coaching in his first Final 4 in his first year with the Tar Heels. And then mentioned that Coach K is coaching in his 132nd NCAA tournament game.
The greatest rivalry in college basketball is ready tip-off for the first time in the tournament, and the prize is a trip to the national championship.
Let go!!!!!!
As we know, I always do horrible with the seeding in my prediction of what the bracket will be. I was so bad that almost everyone on the Bracket Matrix beat my predictions. But in this part of the Selection Committee / Bracketology, we truly allow hindsight and the performances of the teams to grade both the Selection Committee and the Crazed Lunatic.
It is important to say that part of this is a little unfair – matchups totally matter. One 9 seed ended up having to play against North Carolina, while one 9 seed ended up going up against San Diego State. Hindsight makes it pretty clear that one team had a tougher matchup than the other.
Also, it is important to realize that performance doesn’t completely mean the seeding was wrong. St. Peter’s was a 15 seed who made it to the Elite 8. Just because they managed to go on a run in the tournament and beat Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, it certainly doesn’t mean that the Peacocks should have been a 2 seed when their best victory in the regular season was their conference tournament title game against NET #90 Iona.
But the results were stunning to me when I looked at them. so here are the complete details. I have removed all the teams that the Lunatic and Selection Committee agreed on. I also removed Notre Dame and Indiana because it felt unfair to include them when I had Indiana as an 11 seed and Notre Dame as a 12 seed (which in retrospect was so wrong) in the wrong play-in game. That leaves us with 4 groups. Two based on if the Lunatic or the Selection Committee disagreed by 1 seed line, and two based on if we disagreed by 2 or more seed lines. These groups don’t end up being equal because if I am off by 2 or more seeds, it creates a lot of ways the other seeds could fall…..
Also, we can quickly talk about the teams I missed. Wyoming and Rutgers were the teams that I missed. Both of them ended up in the two play-in games and lost. I had Oklahoma in the play-in game and Texas A&M as a 10 seed. Oklahoma beat Missouri St and lost to St. Bonaventure in the NIT. The Aggies beat Alcorn State, Oregon, Wake Forest, and St. Bonaventure before losing to Xavier at the last second in the NIT championship. But you can’t figure out if making the NIT championship would correspond to winning a NCAA tourney game.
Also – so we have a performance measure – we will predict their performance based on assuming they should go as far as their seed……
Selection Committee put 2+ seed ahead of the Lunatic
There are 6 teams that based on seed would have gone 4-6. Miami FL’s run to the Elite 8 saved this group to make them even with expectations. But what was stunning to me was some of the sizes of the losses. All these teams were off by 2 with the exception of Seton Hall, where I thought the Pirates should have been an 11 seed instead of an 8 seed.
Selection Committee put 1 seed ahead of the Lunatic
The SC had 9 teams which were 1 seed better than the Lunatic’s seed. With the 2 seed supposed to win 3 games, the 3 and 4 seeds to win 2 games, and the two 6 seeds to win 1 game, they are expected to go 9-9. With both 6 seeds losing their first round games, this group fell 1 game below expectations (although I guess I could call them even if Duke beats UNC tonight).
Lunatic put 2 seeds ahead of the Selection Committee
The Lunatic only had 3 teams where he felt they were 2 better seed lines than the committee – but 2 of those teams were incredible. Based on seed, the 8 seed should have made them 1-3. Instead, they went 6-3….. So, they performed 5 games above expectations
Lunatic put 1 seed ahead of the Selection Committee
There were a lot of these teams (14 to be exact) – The 3 and 4 seeds should win 2 games, and the 5 seed, two 7 seeds and 8 seed should have won 1. So, they should have gone 8-14. Instead, they went 15-14 to go 7 games over expectations, including two teams to the Elite 8. Also, want to mention that there were 10 teams based on seed that pulled an upset in the first round. 7 of those 10 teams were ones the Lunatic seeded better than the Selection Committee.
So, lets summarize. For teams that the Selection Committee seeded better than the Lunatic, those teams finished overall with a record of 1 game below expectations. But only 3 of the 15 teams won more games than they were supposed to, and 6 of the teams lost before they were supposed to (and only 6 of the 15 teams managed to win 1 game in the tournament).
For teams that the Lunatic seeded better than the Selection committee, those 17 teams finished overall with a record of 12 games above expectations. 8 of the 17 teams won more games than they were supposed to while only 3 lost before they were supposed to. 11 of the 17 teams won their first game in the tournament.
So, maybe the Crazed Lunatic does a horrible job of predicting where the Selection Committee will seed all the teams in the tournament. But based on how the teams did this year, maybe the Crazed Lunatic should be the one doing the seeding…..
Villanova tried to make it interesting. They cut the lead at one point to 6 points. But every time the Wildcats got close, the Jayhawks had an answer.
The Jayhawks went 13-24 from three point range to win the game on the outside, and David McCormack continued his dominance in the paint with 25 points.
So Kansas led wire to wire as they jumped out to a 10-0 lead and never looked back. Congratulations to the Jayhawks – the Big 12 champs will be playing for the national championship on Monday
The Jayhawks are up 40-29, but to be honest, I am not sure the game is that close. David McCormack had 13 points and dominated the paint before heading to the bench with 2 fouls. Ochai Agbali added 12 points by hitting all 4 of his three pointers.
Collin Gillepsie is doing all he can for the Wildcats with 11 points. But the rest of the Wildcats are 6-24 from the field.
At least this is letting me type more of my other blog posts – but Katie is not thrilled that she has to watch basketball all night and the game isn’t even close. As she said, “If you are going to make me watch a game, at least let it be fun!”
Lets see if the Wildcats can help Katie out in the second half. Obviously, the Jayhawks probably will have something to say about it.
Just in case you are like me and just assumed the games are on CBS, apparently, they are on TBS this year.
Figure that if anyone is reading the blog right now, I can at least lead them to the right channel.
So, I have the benefit of hind-sight as I write this, so it is a little unfair. For Part 1 of this, I am going to try to remember back to my feelings before many of the games started. But since we have the benefit of hindsight, I have to include a little about how the tournament went. I will try to be fair and mention some things I was wrong on as well.
The process is amazing
The thing I loved the most is something they really didn’t do, but I have to give the NCAA credit. The tournament is fool-proof. And a large part of that is because of the selection committee procedures. But the part that I love the most is how each conference’s top 3 teams must be placed in different regions if they are in the protected top 4 seeds. Then, they try to avoid these teams playing a conference opponent until the regional final. It sometimes can’t happen (such as when a conference like the Big 10 has 9 teams), but they do their best.
Lets remember what this gives us (without names):
West – WCC champs, ACC reg season champs, Big 12 third place team (tourney runner-up), and SEC 4th place team.
East – Big 12 reg-season co-champ, SEC reg season tied for 2nd, Big 10 third place team (tourney runner-up), and Pac 12 reg-season 2nd place team (tourney runner-up).
South – Pac 12 champs, Big East tourney champ (and 2nd place reg season), SEC tourney champ (tied 2nd reg season), and Big 10 reg season co-champ
Midwest – Big 12 tourney champ (and reg season co-champ), SEC reg season champ, Big 10 reg season co-champ, and Big East regular season champ
So, 11 of the top 16 teams won either their regular season championship or tournament championship, all the power conferences are represented, and they are split so they don’t play anyone they have played before the regional final. You simply can’t go wrong. We can debate if Tennessee should be a 2 seed and Duke should be a 3 seed, but in the end, you set up the champs to play other champs. And once again, it has led to an outstanding tournament.
Conference tournaments apparently don’t matter
Before the tournament, I really didn’t like this. The SEC tournament is the biggest example of this. Both at the top and at the bubble.
Lets look at the top first. Kentucky and Tennessee were tied for 2nd in the SEC. They split their games in the regular season, both defending their home courts. Going in, Kentucky is 5th in the polls and Tennessee is 9th – so people felt the Wildcats are felt as slightly better. Then, the SEC tournament happens and watches the Volunteers beat Kentucky in the semi-finals and go on to win the SEC tournament. So you had to figure the Vols would jump Kentucky. Even the polls agreed with me – as the final AP poll had Tennessee at 5th and Kentucky dropped to 7th.
Then, when the bracket comes out, Kentucky is a 2 seed as the 6th overall team, and Tennessee is a 3 seed as the 10th overall team. How is that even possible. Two teams from the same conference – tied in the standings and split their games – you would think the team that wins in the tournament would get the edge. Instead, the Volunteers reward for winning the SEC tournament is getting ranked also behind Wisconsin who lost in the Big 10 tourney quarter-finals to Michigan State.
I can see the committee not wanting to do what I did and put three SEC teams on the 2nd line. But then why weren’t the 2 teams the SEC reg season champ Auburn and the SEC tourney champ Tennessee.
The bubble side was just as confusing. Texas A&M was clearly on the bubble – with a NET ranking of 43rd, there were not a lot of at large team spots left. Before the tournament, they were only 2-9 against the Top Quadrant teams. The Aggies then beat fellow bubble team Florida, Auburn – who ended up being a 2 seed and then Arkansas – who ended up being a 4 seed before finally falling to the Volunteers.
So, it was a crazy surprise to see that the Aggies didn’t make it to the dance. All the bubble teams have double digit losses – they all have flaws. But not many of them have victories against two teams ranked in the top 16. And isn’t that who you want in the tournament as your 10-12 seeds. Someone who is inconsistent but capable of beating anyone.
The Aggies didn’t change my opinions from their performance in the NIT – making it all the way to the NIT final and losing on a shot with 3 seconds left to Xavier – who has a different fascinating profile. But this is about the conference tourneys. The Aggies looked like they were peaking at the right time to make a run in March – except they apparently peaked to late.
The SEC had 6 teams in the top 6 seed lines – with the two 6 seeds being 9-9 in the conference. LSU was 22-11 overall, 9-9 in conference, and of teams in the at-large part of the field they had home victories against Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. If that is the profile of a 6 seed, why did Texas A&M, who was 23-12 overall, 9-9 in same conference, and of teams in the at-large part of the field had a road victory against Alabama and neutral court victories against Auburn, Arkansas and Notre Dame, not even get in the field. The Aggies had the same record, had all their big victories away from home, and had one more big victory than the 6 seed from their conference and are not even worth an 11 seed.
The only reasonable explanations for that are somehow LSU had a NET ranking that was 18th instead of 43rd (which I don’t understand how that happened and still doesn’t explain why they don’t at least deserve an 11 seed$ or that the tournament games don’t count and so the Aggies don’t get credit for their 2 big victories over top 16 teams.
What to do with the Mountain West
At the end of the day, I am not upset that Wyoming got one of the last spots. I have always said that I would rather see a runner-up from a non-power conference make it over a 18-15 power conference team like Oklahoma. But was the 4th place team from the Mountain West the right choice.
4 Mountain West teams made it – and they created a confusing set of rankings.
Colorado State was ranked 23rd in the polls – and they beat St Mary’s and Creighton. They split against SD State and Wyoming and swept Boise St. But they lost twice to UNLV to fall to 2nd in the standings and lost to San Diego St in the semi-finals
Then you have Boise State. Boise St lost those two to Colorado St and once to Wyoming, but then won the other 15 conference games (including the other game against Wyoming and a sweep of San Diego St). They also swept UNLV to make up the losses to CSU. They beat power conference teams that didn’t make the tourney in Mississippi and Washington State but they also lost two games to some of the best in the Atlantic 10 (St Bonaventure and St Louis) – which is relevant later. They also beat Wyoming and SD State to win the conf tournament. It is weird that a team wins their conference regular season title, beats everyone again in the tourney, and falls 2 seed lines below the conference runner-up. But I guess there is enough weirdness with their non-conference and the fact that they were swept by the runner-up. I don’t agree with it but I can see the complexity
San Diego St finished 3rd in the conference – they have also a victory against St. Mary’s. They have the 2 victories against Colorado State and a victory against Wyoming, but the could not figure out Boise State in three games.
This brings us to Wyoming. The Cowboys finished 4th. In non-conference, they did beat CSU Fullerton and Washington, but the game against a top 40 team against Arizona ended in a 29 point defeat. They managed to hold their home court against Boise State and Colorado State but lost in the conference tournament to Boise State.
Should this be enough? The conference has only beat St. Mary’s twice and beat Creighton. Not Wyoming – the top 6 teams from the conference (I checked out UNLV and Fresno State as well). Why not reward another non-power conference with an extra bid.
That brings us back to the Atlantic 10. Dayton was tied for 2nd in the conference with VCU. Unlike Wyoming, when they played a number 1 seed in Kansas, they successfully pulled the upset. They also beat Miami FL in that November tournament. They also won on their home court against Virginia Tech and Davidson before getting upset in the conference tournament by March darling Richmond.
So, Dayton had arguably a bigger win in Kansas and the same number of non-conference victories as the top 3 teams from the Mountain West conferences. And so it makes sense that they are behind Wyoming who has only the two Mt West home victories on their resume. One could point out that Wyoming was 50th in the NET and Dayton was 58th. But if NET is the reason, I could probably list out a few other deserving mid-majors who were ahead of Wyoming in the NET rankings – 47th North Texas who won the Conf USA regular season, 45th SMU was the runner-up in the American but got passed up by 3rd place Memphis – who got a 9 seed (and by the way then beat 8th seeded Boise State).
I am thrilled the committee wanted to reward a talented non-power conference team. I just think there were probably better choices. Hindsight then agreed with me as the Mountain West went 0-4 in the tournament.
We both went wrong with the ACC
I don’t like the fact that UNC was ranked in the top 25 after their big victory against Duke and ended up as an 8 seed. The Tar Heels didn’t seem to mind – since they are playing tonight in the Final Four. But it is ridiculous that non-ranked 9-9 teams from the SEC are getting 6 seeds and the Tar Heels who were tied for 2nd in the ACC settle for an 8 seed.
I also don’t like that Notre Dame, the other 14-4 team tied for second in the ACC, ended up in the play-in game. The play-in game should be for middle of the road 9-9 or 8-10 power conference teams that sneak into the tournament, not a 2nd place team. Notre Dame couldn’t win any of their multiple games against tourney teams in non-conference, but they did beat UNC, Miami and Virginia Tech. Somehow, Miami who finished 4th in the conference jumped them in the standings – would the Irish have been in the Final Four and if conference standings mattered and they switched places with the Hurricanes – maybe. Regardless, they should not have been in the play-in game.
Conference standings should matter!!!
As I have been typing this, I have noticed multiple times the committee reversed the standings. It is hard to say in every case – might be a research topic for Sunday. But it doesn’t seem right.
I agree that we are putting in teams instead of conferences. I am glad that non-conference games matter as well. But it is hard enough to compare Memphis to Creighton to North Carolina – we should be able to leverage the conference standings to at least have a good ranking between teams that play each other.
There have been a few examples here, but I will add one more. Creighton was 4th in the Big East, 1 game ahead of Seton Hall and Marquette. Creighton then made it to the Big East championship while Seton Hall lost in the quarterfinals to UConn. Yet, Seton Hall ended up an 8 seed, and Creighton was a 9 seed – probably due to the fact that the Hall swept Creighton. But that says something in the standings of a league with a relatively balanced home and away. Creighton was 3 games better in the standings against the rest of the conference…..
Creighton ended up winning an exciting game against San Diego State, while Seton Hall got destroyed by TCU. So, maybe it all worked out for Creighton – but we are grading the committee here. If it is really due to uneven schedules, it is one thing – but otherwise, the conference standings should matter in the rank ordering.
So glad to be wrong!!!
In my bracketology, I had St. Peter’s as a 14 seed and Yale as a 15 seed. But the selection committee felt that those teams should be swapped.
If the Selection Committee listened to me, my Boilers might have lost their 3 point game in the First Round instead of the Sweet 16 – glad that the Committee was right and believed the team we beat by 22 points was better….
I am sure that if my bracket had been the final, people could rip apart the inconsistencies as well. The Selection Committee deserves credit for coming up with a great tournament. I can not-pick seeding, but at the end of the day, the teams still get to play the games on the court.
Speaking of which, not sure I will have time for part 2 before the game starts. Kansas and Villanova tip-off a great night of basketball in New Orleans in 20 minutes!!!! Enjoy the games!!!!
As many of you know, the Lunatic does his insane handicapping of all 67 games. And after writing my reasons for my picks, I realized that it is also the perfect Lunatic preview of the Final Four. Or maybe I am just desperate to not stay up past midnight. It is hard to tell sometimes.
I have had a hard time getting my expert staff together to do our roundtable. Katie’s expert opinion would be it is only 3 more days until this nonsense is over and she can start to watch her TV shows again. Charlie has been busy with his swim team’s end of season awards, soccer practices and a party tonight with his friends, and with his picks eliminated in the pool, he probably doesn’t even care about who wins. And then of course, we have Katie’s rugby match on Saturday. I could probably get my wonderful wife, Elizabeth, to pick the two games with me, but she is being nice enough to let me watch the Stanford / UConn game, so I won’t make her pick. Although she has told me that she wants to let everyone know that she is a plumbing genius, fixing our toilet fill valve in our downstairs bathroom this afternoon.
Maybe I can get them together on Sunday for the championship game. For the Final Four, we will settle for the professional betting opinions of the Crazed Lunatic, live from the Lunatic Casino, so that you don’t need to go to the Handicapping page to find his madness……..
LUNATIC’S DISCLAIMER – For those who do not look at the Lunatic’s handicapping page, please remember that the Lunatic Casino only deals with imaginary money. If I bet for real, I would most definitely jinx any team I pick and lose huge amounts of money. These four teams are all great, and should not have to worry about any crazy curse from a middle-aged sleep-deprived fan. But that fan has to pick someone – it is just for fun.
At this point, the Lunatic could be safe. His current progress against the spreads is 33-30-1, putting him down $17. But his progress against the over/under is 36-26-2, putting him ahead $121. It is crazy that at this point in the tournament that the Lunatic is ahead $104.
There are only 6 potential bets left. The Lunatic could simply say that he is unsure about all 3 games, bet $10 for each of the 6 bets, and walk away with no less than a $44 victory. But any degenerate gambler would never do this. So, neither will the Lunatic. You should always respect a streak, and the Lunatic is on one. Have to take a risk to get a great reward. No one wants to simply leave the Lunatic Casino winning enough to pay for the parking garage outside. Go Big or Go Home!!!!
As I type this, the Lunatic Casino’s host comes over and says, “We love to have you here, Mr. Hodgson. Please accept this comp at our amazing prime rib buffet, and afterwards, maybe you would like to sit down at one of our blackjack tables. We really appreciate your business at our Sportsbook, and maybe you would like to try your luck at one of our other games.”
The Lunatic should be afraid. But he does love a good prime rib. And he definitely loves college basketball. Here we go!!!!
6:09 pm – #1 Kansas (-4) vs #2 Villanova (OVER/UNDER: 133)
Kansas is responsible for knocking off 2 of the best teams in the Big East in Providence (beat by 5) and Creighton (beat by 7). While both of those games got close at times, Kansas never looked like they didn’t have control of the game. Now, they get the best team from the Big East. But here is the problem for Villanova. Villanova basically plays 6 players. Then, Justin Moore, their 2nd leading scorer, tore his achilles in the final minute against Houston. In the last 3 games, other than their 6th man Caleb Daniels, the only other players who have come off Villanova’s bench are Bryan Antoine (who has played 8 minutes over the 3 games) and Chris Arcidiacono (who has played 6 minutes over the 3 games). Maybe the Wildcats top 5 remaining players can play the whole game. Maybe Caleb Daniels can take over Moore’s place in the lineup and someone will step up to take over Moore’s scoring. Kansas would have been the favorite if Moore was in the line-up. Add Moore’s injury and the fact that it is only a 4 point line and you have to take the Jayhawks. Kansas’ last two games fell under 133 and Villanova’s last three fell under 133, and it is unclear who will replace Moore’s scoring for Villanova. So, I would take the under.
LUNATIC’S PICKS – Kansas ($30) / Under ($30)
8:49 pm – #2 Duke (-4) vs #8 North Carolina (OVER/UNDER: 151)
It is kind of crazy that Coach K has led Duke for 42 years, the Blue Devils and Tar Heels have won so many National Championships, and yet this is the first time these two powerhouses have met in the tournament. However, we have the benefit of the ACC regular season to handicap this game. In their first game at Chapel Hill, Duke jumped out to a 31-8 lead, and coasted to a 87-67 victory. In their second game in Coach K’s farewell to Cameron Arena, the Blue Devils led by 7 in the second half, and then North Carolina finished on an amazing run to beat Duke 94-81. I think that the pressure of Coach K’s finale got to the young Blue Devils at Cameron. And you would think that there is a tremendous amount of pressure to get Coach K to the championship game. But I also think that this is the best thing that could have happened to Duke in this pressure packed game. Pride and revenge are interesting motivations. Duke was the better team for 68 of the 80 minutes these teams played this year. So, while UNC is playing like a different team from that first game – having won 10 of their last 11 games, you have to pick the ACC regular season champs in this game. And since both games covered the over, I will take Duke in a high scoring game.
LUNATIC’S PICKS – Duke ($30) / Over ($30)
The Crazed Lunatic is a crazy college basketball fan, especially for his Purdue Boilermakers!!!! Boiler Up!!!!
Every March, his passion comes out to rant and rave about one of the best sporting events in the world, the NCAA Basketball Tournament. While many of you will Stomp the Lunatic with your picks in our fun bracket picking game, this will not diminish the Lunatic’s crazed attempt at blogging about the tournament that he loves. Whether it will be trying to predict who will be in the tournament during Championship Week or his insane attempt to handicap all 67 games against the Vegas spreads, you can count on the Lunatic’s sleep-deprived rantings throughout the month of March.
If you notice any problems with the website or have any questions about the Stomp the Lunatic contest, please reach out by email at thomas@tehodgson.com
