Stomp The Lunatic

Syracuse started today on the bubble against a North Carolina State team that probably needed a big run to get to the tournament. Syracuse destroyed them – while I haven’t evaluated their profile, they looked like a tournament team today.

Duke also continued their improbable run. They set up the game they needed to tomorrow against second seed Florida State.

Louisville could have used the win today to help their resume – but before you start thinking crazy things like Duke just jumped over Louisville – remember they beat Duke twice in the regular season and have a better record than the Blue Devils. Louisville might be a little more nervous on the bubble, but at this second, they are more worried about other teams on the bubble. Duke still needs to get past Florida State to get back into the discussion (at least in my opinion).

Clemson went from comfortably in to maybe not as comfortably in – losing a close game to Miami FL. And Xavier blew a 19 point lead to watch their bubble get dangerously close to popping by losing to Butler in overtime.

The crazy NET story from the Patriot league is doing just fine – Colgate is up by 31 points against Bucknell – and there is still 16 minutes to play.

So – a little bit of drama in the ACC and Big East. But the big stories are still to come likely tomorrow.

To be honest, Wednesday isn’t the most exciting day for me. I might need to really make some ground on Bracketology. Or maybe I will try to set up my Handicapping blog. Maybe I might even try to sleep early. It might be the last chance for several days.

The reason it isn’t that exciting is because there are no finals. At this point, many of the conferences are starting tournaments that will end on Saturday or Sunday. I know that their fans care – but I can’t get that excited about watching a game like 9-12 Portland St play 5-15 Northern Arizona to kick off the Big Sky tournament. You might say – sure but the major tournaments are starting tomorrow. Great – I get to watch 12-13 TCU play 8-19 Kansas St to kick off the Big 12 tournament. There are a couple bubble teams playing tomorrow – even one ranked team. So, the day isn’t void of interesting games. But in most cases, we are more watching bubble teams to make sure they don’t lose to a team that could knock them off the bubble. The story simply isn’t as interesting to me.

The ACC at least is onto their second round – so they have a couple of interesting games – including what I believe is the game of the day.

6:30 pm EST brings us Louisville vs. Duke – we know that Duke is in desperation mode, but Louisville’s NET ranking does put them on the bubble. Louisville’s resume isn’t as strong as one might think. The only quad 1 victory that Louisville has is their victory at Duke (a team not likely in the field). They are 6-0 against Quad 2 – but of the teams that are legitimately possible tourney teams, they really only have home victories against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. That might be enough – sometimes it is important to simply win the games you are supposed to. But getting a 3rd win against Duke might be just as important to Louisville as the game is for Duke.

Other games that might have some bubble interest:

• Noon EST – ACC 2nd Round – Syracuse (15-8) vs. North Carolina St (13-9) – I find it fascinating how often Syracuse finds their way on the bubble. And watch out if they make the tournament. Syracuse is likely in better shape than NC State – but a run in the ACC Tournament could get them to the dance
• 2:30 EST – ACC 2nd Round – Clemson (16-6) vs Miami FL (9-16). Clemson is likely in the tournament with a 10-6 record in the ACC. So, a chance to watch a possibly tournament team.
• 6 EST – Big East 1st Round – Xavier (13-7) vs Butler (9-14). Xavier is a bubble team who could really use a good run in the Big East tournament. It starts with not getting upset early against Butler.
• 7 EST – Conf USA 2nd Round – Marshall (15-6) vs Rice (14-12). Marshall currently stands at 81st in the NET ranking. They are one of multiple teams that could win the Conf USA tournament – and while I suspect that only one Conf USA team makes it to the dance, that team could be dangerous…..It might be Marshall……
• 7:30 EST – Patriot Semifinal – Colgate (12-1) vs Bucknell (5-6). Because it is the #8 team in the country according to NET. I might need to see for myself what Colgate looks like.
• 9 EST – ACC 2nd Round – North Carolina (16-9) vs Notre Dame (11-14). UNC looks like they are in – and that by itself puts them on the Wednesday viewing list. Add into it Notre Dame, who survived today on a last second three-pointer, following their regular season upset of Florida State. The Irish aren’t getting in without winning the ACC Tournament – but they are not your normal 11-14 team.
• 9:30 EST – Big 12 1st Round – Oklahoma (14-9) vs Iowa State (2-21). OK – this should be a blowout. But Oklahoma is the only ranked team playing on Wednesday.

If you are a fan of the Big 10 or the Pac 12, they play a couple games as well. But truthfully, Wednesday is our final day of calm before the storm. Over half of the AP Top 25 start their Championship Week on Thursday – starting at 11:30 am with #10 West Virginia against #12 Oklahoma State. So, Championship Week will get interesting again quickly……

I keep debating structure for the blog. Last night, I had so much fun doing a breakdown of the bubble – then I woke up this morning and realized that should have probably been in my bracketology blog. With the changes in service that I had on my website provider, I made the realization that instead of loading pages for my bracketology and handicapping pages and constantly uploading them, I could simply use WordPress to create a new blog – easier to update, always available, etc. Just one problem – I came up with the idea last weekend which doesn’t leave a lot of time for making pretty or organizing what content goes where.

Sleep deprived lunatic with multiple blogs at his fingertips – what can go wrong with that.

Anyways, lets look at today’s Lunatic viewing guide. If you are lucky enough to watch TV during the afternoon, the ACC has your sole and undivided attention. The one that will have everyone’s attention is at 4:30 pm EST as Duke starts their last charge for the dance against Boston College. At 11-11, the Blue Devils probably have to at least win 3 games in Greensboro to make a last ditch effort. As I said before, I can’t see a 13-12 team making the tournament, even if they have the name Duke across their jerseys.

There are other small conference tournaments starting this late afternoon and evening, but everyone’s attention really should be on the finals – as 5 teams will punch their ticket to the dance. The premier game of the day is in Las Vegas in the West Coast Conference at 9 pm EST. In the middle of the night for us on the East Coast, BYU survived a scare from Pepperdine in overtime, creating the matchup everyone wanted to see from the WCC. The #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs will try to go into the tournament undefeated, with the BYU Cougars trying to pull the major upset.

But there are 4 other championships to be played – hope they are as good as Monday night.

• Colonial (7 pm EST) – #6 Drexel (11-7) vs #8 Elon (10-8)
• Northeast (7 pm EST) – #2 Bryant (15-5) vs #4 Mount St Mary’s (11-10)
• Horizon (7 pm EST) – #1 Cleveland State (18-7) vs #3 Oakland (12-17)
• Summit (9 pm EST) – #3 North Dakota State (15-11) vs #4 Oral Roberts (15-10)

Enjoy the conference tournament games tonight – tomorrow begins some of the bubble activity as first round games of some of the major conferences begin.

Its late, but bracketology is on a roll – why not do one last quick categorization. There are a few other things that we can look through that can order the teams without looking at anything but the Nitty Gritty summary.

• Based on my memory – the worst record to make the tournament is the 16-14 Georgia team from 2001.
• Teams don’t tend to get an at-large bid if they don’t have a Quad 1 victory. Sometimes the committee will look past it if they have a ton of Quad 2 wins – but at the end of the day, the committee selections teams that have beaten other teams in the bracket.
• If you are not in the top 6 conferences (Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big East and Pac 12), you better be in the top 50 of the NET. Not saying it doesn’t happen – but a mid-major team has few chances to get Quad 1 wins to begin with – it helps to be looked at with the teams in the top 30-50.

The Bubble Crashers – these are the teams that are outside of the top 80, but could come crashing into the rankings if the make it to their tournament championship (probably taking out a top 10 team along the way). You can only be in this group if you are in a major conference. Sure – Marshall might jump into the top 80 if they make it to the Conf USA final. But they still have no chance for a Quad 1 victory to grab the committee’s attention. This also doesn’t include a team like Notre Dame – at 10-14, they could win the ACC tournament and still have a worse record than Georgia did in 2001. They don’t need the at-large bid if they win 5 games in the tournament, and they don’t have a .500 record without those 5 wins. We won’t really look at these teams unless they go on a streak – if they are still playing on Saturday or Sunday, we will have to re-evaluate them

• Marquette (87) – 13-13
• Pitt (92) – 10-11
• Georgia (94) – 14-11

Already out due to losing record or ineligible – these teams have a losing record going into the tournament. They are in the top 80 of the rankings, but they are out barring winning their tournament.

• Penn State (40) – 10-13
• Arizona (46) – 17-9 but ineligible
• Kentucky (59) – 9-15
• Indiana (61) – 12-14
• Auburn (69) – 13-14 and ineligible
• Minnesota (79) – 13-14

No wins against Quad 1 teams – the two American teams might still get another chance at Houston. The other two have their season over with so are likely done.

• Memphis (52) – American (15-7)
• SMU (56) – American (11-4)
• Davidson (62) – Atlantic 10 (13-8)
• St. Marys CA (64) – WCC (14-8)

Mid-major outside the top 60 – only one team in this bucket has a chance – but it is hard to tell. That is Wichita State – they still have the American in front of them. But they also have the interesting fact that they are the American’s regular season champion – one would think it was 7th ranked Houston, but Houston actually fell behind Wichita State by conference winning percentage.

• Wichita State (65) – American (15-4)
• Richmond (70) – Atlantic 10 (13-8)
• Dayton (80) – Atlantic 10 (14-9)

Better win 2 or 3 games this week – these teams have records that are between .500 and 2 games above .500. Remember that Georgia team was 2 games above .500. I don’t suspect that a 13-12 team makes it.

• Seton Hall (58) – Big East (13-12)
• Duke (60) – ACC (11-11)
• Stanford (71) – Pac 12 (14-12)
• Providence (77) – Big East (13-12)
• Mississippi State (78) – SEC (14-13)

Have No Clue How to Handle – this just shows how confusing this is. Colgate has a NET ranking of 8!!!!! If they seed simply on the ranking, they are a #2 seed!!!!! I can’t believe that they are an at-large candidate, but how can I take them off the bubble. I really hope they win the Patriot.

Outside the top 50 – some of these teams are surprising that they are here (Louisville), some of them have some of the best wins on the bubble (Michigan St), but regardless, I am categorizing without deep diving into schedules

• Louisville (51) – ACC (13-6)
• Mississippi (53) – SEC (15-10)
• Xavier (57) – Big East (13-7)
• North Carolina State (66) – ACC (13-9)
• Michigan State (67) – Big 10 (15-11)
• St. John’s (68) – Big East (16-10)

Remaining Mid-Major Teams – these teams have had great seasons. But they are in the mid-major conferences. And I have seen too many top mid-major teams not get into the tournament due to not enough quality wins. I think it is a shame – and this is probably the type of season to give the mid-majors more chances. But they are on the bubble because history has not been kind to this group.

• Boise State (43) – Mountain West (18-7)
• St. Louis (44) – Atlantic 10 (14-6)
• Drake (47) – Missouri Valley (25-4)
• Utah State (48) – Mountain West (18-7)
• Colorado State (50) – Mountain West (17-5)

Remaining Major Teams – this is the largest group – not all of these teams are ranked equally. But they might be some of the safest teams on the bubble from a history perspective.

• Connecticut (31) – Big East (14-6)
• Maryland (34) – Big 10 (15-12)
• Clemson (36) – ACC (16-6)
• Rutgers (37) – Big 10 (14-10)
• Georgia Tech (38) – ACC (15-8)
• North Carolina (39) – ACC (16-9)
• UCLA (41) – Pac 12 (17-8)
• Missouri (45) – SEC (15-8)
• Syracuse (49) – ACC (15-8)

Loser of the Atlantic 10 championship – St. Bonaventure is 15-4 and ranked 27th. VCU is 19-6 and ranked 35th. They were the top 2 teams in the regular season, and they survived to make it to the tournament final. They also play the championship on Sunday. Remember, Selection Sunday is money to the NCAA. Their game will finish approximately 3 hours before the bracket is released. It is possible they could simply have both in already. But if VCU is on the outside of the bracket and they win on their home court on Sunday, would the committee simply put them in the spot they placed St. Bonaventure so that they can get a bracket out the door. I have heard stories of contingency brackets so that they can move from bracket to bracket based on the results of the championships on Sunday – but I am obviously not in the room… Who knows what will be going through the mind of the Selection Committee at 3 pm EST. If I had to go based on my initial gut instinct, I think both teams are in.

So – there you go. 16 spots for 40 teams if we include the bubble crashers and remove the two ineligible teams. But the reality is that I think the teams really looking at this are the last 4 categories. Those 21 teams really have the best chances at the 16 remaining spots…..

As we said in the last post, there are really likely 60 teams playing for 37 at-large spots. But we would like to know what teams are likely locks into the tournament, and which are really still on the bubble.

And we want to do it quickly – I don’t want to pour over schedules just yet. I simply want to start to define groupings. So, lets establish our locks.

Lets first make an assumption – remember we really have 70 teams and 47 spots – there are 11 potential multi-bid conferences (and one is decided). For right now, lets place the highest ranked NET team in these spots (partly out of laziness so that I don’t have to look up conference standings) – we will list the one team who has actually punched their ticket first..

• Missouri Valley – Loyola – Chicago (10)
• WCC – Gonzaga (1)
• Big 12 – Baylor (2)
• Big 10 – Michigan (3)
• American – Houston (5)
• SEC – Alabama (7)
• Big East – Villanova (11)
• Pac 12 – Colorado (12)
• ACC – Virginia (13)
• Mountain West – San Diego State (21)
• Atlantic 10 – St Bonaventure (27)

Next, there are only two ranked teams that I remember that have missed the NCAA tournament (2014 – SMU and 2004 – Utah State). My memory is not always perfect – I wouldn’t be surprised if I missed someone (probably recent). Considering both of these teams are from smaller conferences, and the bottom of the current top 25 polls are from the major 6 conferences, I think you can safely lock the teams in this weeks poll.

You also have to remember the NET / RPI rankings. There has never been a top 30 RPI / NET school from a major 6 conference that has missed the tournament – and the best ranked team to miss the tournament was #21 Missouri State in 2006. I’ve mentioned Colgate’s weird situation a couple times – so they get left out of this conversation. This will give you the following locks:

• Illinois – Big 10 (4 – AP #3)
• Iowa – Big 10 (6 – AP #5)
• Ohio St – Big 10 (9 – AP #9)
• Kansas – Big 12 (14 – AP #11)
• USC – Pac 12 (15 – AP #24)
• Arkansas – SEC (16 – AP #8)
• Texas Tech – Big 12 (17 – AP #20)
• Tennessee – SEC (18)
• BYU – WCC (19)
• Purdue – Big 10 (20 – AP #21)
• Florida State – ACC (22 – AP #15)
• West Virginia – Big 12 (23 – AP #10)
• Texas – Big 12 (24 – AP #13)
• Creighton – Big East (25 – AP #17)
• Wisconsin – Big 10 (26)
• LSU – SEC (28)
• Florida – SEC (29)
• Oklahoma State – Big 12 (30 – AP #12)
• Oregon – Pac 12 (32 – Coaches #25)
• Oklahoma – Big 12 (33 – AP #25)
• Virginia Tech – ACC (42 – AP #22)

So – very quickly, without looking at schedules and simply trusting the rankings, you can lock in 21 teams. Sure – it is always possible for teams to shift. It would likely be a good thing for Wisconsin, LSU and Florida to win their first tournament game so they stay in the top 30. But I would likely believe that they are OK – remember, not only would they have to drop because of the loss, but 16 more teams have to pass them. A loss might push them back – but probably not far enough out of the tournament.

That leaves 16 spots for the remaining 39 teams. There are two teams that are not as safe – because they are our place-holders.

First, there is San Diego State – our Mountain West “champion”. They are likely safe. They currently are at 21st (that magical number that only Missouri State didn’t survive). They are also 19th in the polls, which adds another level of safety. The part that is scary is that they are 0-3 in their Quad 1 games. They are 6-1 against Quad 2 – so the committee might look past the gap, but they join Colgate as the only team in the NET top 50 without a Quad 1 victory. The good news is that if the NET rankings stay as is and they beat Boise St, Utah St or Colorado St in the conference tournament, they will remove that hole.

Next, there is St Bonaventure – our Atlantic 10 “champion”. I think they are safe, but as a team from the Atlantic 10 hovering around a ranking of 30th, they probably fall into the bubble conversation.

Still – unless something strange happens, these teams are the ones playing this week for seeding. You will probably hear their name called on Sunday.

There are two exciting parts of championship week. Obviously, there are all the championship games. But then there is watching the desparation of the bubble teams trying to make one last good impression on the Selection Committee.

We might not be able to know for certain, but there are some historical rules that can help us really identify the teams who are playing for seeding vs. the teams who are playing for their tournament lives.

In this first piece, we will break down the conferences. This year, due to the Ivy League cancelling their winter sports, there are 31 conference champions and 37 at-large bids. In order to help start identifying the bubble, it can help to understand the potential teams.

At the end of the day, when the NCAA used the RPI, the worst RPI to ever get an at-large bid was in 1999 when New Mexico made it as #74. In 2019, the first time the committee used the NET, they came close to breaking this record – as #73 St. John’s made it into the field as the last at-large team. We can be a little ultra conservative and probably make a safe assumption that you will not be an at-large team if you are not in the top 80 of the NET rankings.

13 of the conferences do not have a team in the top 80 – these are definitely one-bid conferences. Those are (added their conference tournament winner if it has happened): America East, Atlantic Sun (Liberty), Big Sky, Colonial, MAAC, MEAC, NEC, OVC (Morehead St), Southland, Summit, Sun Belt (Appalachian St), SWAC, and WAC.

Another 6 conferences have 1-2 teams in the top 80 NET rankings. But they likely will be a one-bid conference. The reason for this is the best of those teams is ranked 54th (UC Santa Barbara from the Big West). 54th is really good, but all these teams have a large hole in their resume – quad 1 victories. Of these 8 teams, only #74 Louisiana Tech has a quad 1 win – and their lone win is a road win against #73 North Texas.

So, the Big West, Big South (Winthrop), MAC, Horizon, Conference USA and Southern conferences join the one-bids.

I suspect there is one more one-bid conference, but they would create a record depending on how far a loss causes the team to fall. The best ranked team to not get invited to the tournament (based on RPI) was #21 Missouri State in 2006. Currently, Colgate sits at 8th in the NET. I can’t imagine the Patriot second-place team can get an at-large bid based on having beaten only 4-5 teams in the Patriot league. But their NET ranking will put them on the bubble if they lose – probably the wrong side, but still…….

The Missouri Valley is decided – Loyola Illinois defended their regular season championship and do not need to worry about Selection Sunday (although with their NET ranking of 10 and being ranked in the polls, they were likely safe anyways). Drake is 25-4 with a ranking at 47 – they will probably be one of the Selection Committee’s most difficult decision.

So, that then leaves us with 10 conferences with a chance at multiple bids (outside the case of if Drake gives the MVC a second team). Here they are with the number of top 80 teams they have:

Big 10 (12), SEC (10), ACC (10), Big 12 (7), Big East (7), Pac 12 (6), Atlantic 10 (6), American (4), Mountain West (4), WCC (3).

So, they represent 69 teams – 10 of them likely will get their bid from the conference championship. Adding Drake gives us 60 teams fighting for 37 spots (OK – I guess ultra-conservatively 61 if we need to add Colgate if they lose on Wednesday or Sunday – they would be better off not joining the at-large discussion).

This establishes a few things. First, we likely have 19-20 one-bid conferences where they will be sending their conference champion to the dance.

Next, there are 9 conferences that can cause the bubble to shrink. The Atlantic 10 championship is St. Bonaventure vs VCU – both top 80 teams. If BYU can beat Pepperdine tonight, it will drop to 8 – since Gonzaga is beating St. Mary’s by 27 pts in the second half, BYU is in the top 20, and if St. Mary’s miraculously comes back, they are also in the top 80.

The major 6 conferences normally aren’t responsible for the bid-stealer. With typically over half of your conference being top 80 teams, the chance that one of the worst teams in the conference can go win games on 4-5 straight days is unlikely. So, if you are rooting for a bubble buster, you will be watching the American and Mountain West conference tournaments – and rooting for chaos.

If you are following the Lunatic’s guide and enjoying some of the games, they are treating you to some fun.

In the Summit conference, regular season champion South Dakota State found themselves down a decent part of the game, but with 9 seconds left, tied the game from the free throw line. Oral Roberts then broke their hearts by driving to the lane, missing the jumper in the lane, and having Kevin Obanor of the Golden Eagles tap the ball in right before the clock struck 0 to send the regular season champs home.

Meanwhile, in the Horizon conference, Cleveland State also found themselves down most of the game, but while they were down 1 with a minute left, a tap out on a defensive rebound led to a fast break for Tre Gomillion who gave the Vikings a lead with a thunderous dunk and foul.

With 5 minutes left, UNC-Greensboro just scored the last 5 points to take a 4 point lead in the Southern Conference championship. Appalachian State is running away with an upset in the Sun Belt – they have a 14 point lead over East division champion Georgia State with 4 minutes to play.

Lots of excitement in the Monday conference tournaments. They might not be the big names like Michigan or Baylor or Virginia. And admittedly, some of the basketball isn’t the best. But it sure is exciting to watch.

I actually love how Championship Week starts and builds. Monday and Tuesday in some sense are the calm before the storm. Other than the ACC having their first round on Tuesday, these days are dedicated to the mid-major conferences. Seven of these conferences will crown their champion over the next two days, which should lead to some exciting basketball. We also start to get an idea on if there might be any bid stealers.

For bracketologists or insane people like myself, these are great days to start to get your hands around what to watch for before the major conference championships begin. Thus, the calm before the storm.

However, if you want to watch some fun college basketball games, Monday and Tuesday are still great days. Many of these teams have seniors who are playing for one last chance to get to the biggest stage in March and compete for a national championship. They know that if they play well today, they get to extend their college career for at least one more game. And that emotion and all-out effort tends to lead to some magical events happening on the court.

If you are looking for a bid thief and probably the best chance to look at a team that could go far in the tournament, you have to stay up late to watch the West Coast Conference semi-finals. Gonzaga plays St. Mary’s at 9 pm EST, and BYU plays Pepperdine at midnight EST. Gonzaga is obviously the number one team in the country – so you can get a sneak peak at them. BYU is in the top 20 of the NET rankings, and St. Mary’s is in the top 65 – so while everyone expects Gonzaga to keep winning, they will have some decent opponents. And obviously, if St. Mary’s or Pepperdine shocks the world over the next couple of days, they will shrink the at-large bubble.

The rest of the conferences look like they will be playing their championships knowing that this is their only way to the dance. Of the remaining 6 conferences, only 2 had teams in the top 80 of the NET rankings (Horizon had Wright State at 72nd and Southern had Furman at 75th at the time of writing this). Wright State was a co-champ of the Horizon at 16-4 with Cleveland State, but they did not survive the quarterfinals when they lost by 2 to Milwaukee. Furman was strangely the 3rd seed in the Southern – and also fell in their quarterfinals to an overtime loss to VMI. Neither Wright State or Furman had a quad 1 win and both lost early in their conference tournament. So, neither likely is going to get an at-large spot for the bubble to shrink.

But the remaining teams still are competing for a championship. And that always brings out the best in teams.

So if you are watching basketball tonight. Tune in to one of the conference finals at 7 pm EST.

The Southern Conference has UNC-Greensboro trying to defend their regular season championship against Mercer. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt Conference has Georgia State, the best team from their East division playing against Appalachian State.

You also have Cleveland State trying to defend their regular season co-championship in the Horizon semi-finals and South Dakota State trying to defend their title in the Summit semi-finals.

Of course, on Tuesday, you can also tune in to see if Duke is going to make one last run for the dance. But I would spend some time and enjoy the smaller conferences fight for their tickets to the dance. The Colonial, Horizon, Summit, Northeast, and West Coast Conferences all will have their championship Tuesday night. Maybe you find your bracket buster team – that 13 or 14 seed who comes out of nowhere. Those types of teams are going to start to introduce themselves to the world tonight and tomorrow – so if you have some time on TV and you are craving basketball, take the opportunity to watch them earn their tickets to the dance.

Well, it is ready through Saturday’s March 6th games!   For the most part, the file is the same as normal.   I have continued with the approach that conference tournament game are counted as conference games instead of post-season games.  Since I had the new NET ranking pulled from the NCAA website and added to the standings, I added a couple other things. In the standings file, the NCAA NET page lists out a team record for the 4 quads, so I copied those into the Standings page. And because I had the rules and the NET ranking, I merged it onto the Schedule page in a way that you can see the NET ranking for each opponent, and what quad that game is. I did not validate that matched the NCAA site, so take the data for what it is…….

The NCAA Archive site doesn’t appear to be loading the PDFs that I had been downloading – they keep moving more and more contact to their Statistics webpage. But why not simply use that as an excuse to give you more access to the data I find. The 2021 NET Nitty Gritty link actually goes to the NCAA Statistics website – it gives you an option to download the Nitty Gritty as a PDF. If you click on one of the team’s names, it takes you to their schedule, and if you click on their NET Ranking on the schedule page, it will give you a team sheet that is similar to what they provide in the PDF. The only thing I don’t like about that is it doesn’t have all the other computer scores (the old PDF used to have KenPom and Sagarin scores for example on their team sheets). It also isn’t in one large document, which is annoying. If I find a better option, I will add information as we go……

But that does have the benefit that there is now only one file to update instead of 3. No promises that I will update the Schedule Excel file every day, but wanted it to be available to everyone as early as possible. I will update as I have time throughout the week – the spreadsheet has a page that says when it is last updated.

Obviously, remember the traditional Lunatic disclaimers.  I have done some basic cleaning and quality checks that the records from the schedule I have match the official NCAA site – but there are thousands of games, and so I will not make the claim that I have checked every piece of the dataset.  To be honest, I simply check to make sure the records match – I figure if I can get lucky enough that all 347 teams have the correct records, the rest of the data is probably right. 

That being said, one really interesting thing that this file does create is a side-by-side comparison of the old RPI calculation (which my tool still calculates – as does some other webpages) vs. the new NET model that the Selection Committee is using to rank games into the quadrants.  I do think that the NET score is giving the Selection Committee a better ranking. For example, Illinois right now would be 17th in the RPI instead of 4th in the NET. And Iowa would be at 39th in the RPI instead of 6th. I am sure that it could be even better – KenPom has Colgate as the 88th ranked team instead of 8th for the NET (or 7th for the RPI). But glad that the NCAA is moving a step forward….

For those of you who are not familiar with this tradition of me doing insane data pulls to grab all this great college basketball data, I will give you some more details.

As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I pick Purdue to go far and just randomly pick the other games late Wednesday evening.  So, I am not really sure what I am going to do this year with my Boilers looking like they might not be dancing.

However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort.

If you notice something terribly wrong, let me know – no promises I have time to fix it, but at least everyone will know.

Enjoy the data!!!!