Stomp The Lunatic

Well, it is ready through Saturday’s (March 3rd) games!   For the most part, the file is the same as normal.   I have continued with the approach that conference tournament game are counted as conference games instead of post-season games.

No promises that I will update every day, but wanted to make this available for everyone – and will update as I have time throughout the week – the spreadsheet has a page that says when it is last updated.

For those of you who want to do crazy statistical research, build models, or just have all the schedule data at your fingertips to evaluate teams, the data is there in the research links under 2018 Schedule.

Obviously, remember the traditional Lunatic disclaimers.  I have done some basic cleaning and quality checks against RPI data – but there are a lot of games, and so I will not make the claim that I have checked every piece of the dataset.

One other important note – since I don’t remember a lot of these happening in the past.  While I didn’t get a lot of the details, apparently Hampton beat Morgan State by forfeit on February 24th.  From the couple of articles I could read, Hampton was up in the second half 57-38 when there was an altercation.  Both Morgan State coach Todd Bozeman and player David Syfax were ejected from the game – and then Bozeman instructed his players to leave the floor – causing the game to end.  By NCAA rules, the score gets marked as a forfeit – which becomes a 2-0 win for Hampton.   Just be aware that is how it is stored in the data file.

For those of you who are not familiar with this tradition, I will give you some more details.

As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I pick Purdue to go far and just randomly pick the other games late Wednesday evening.

However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort.

If you notice something terribly wrong, let me know – no promises I have time to fix it, but at least everyone will know.

Enjoy the data!!!!

While many of the college basketball world were watching the game considered the greatest rivalry in the sport between Duke and North Carolina, a potentially more critical game was being played in Evansville, Indiana.

That’s because the game in Evansville was between the top two teams in the Ohio Valley Conference.   In this game that was going unnoticed by many, regular season champion Murray State beat runner-up Belmont 68-51 to finish the season 26-5 and claim the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament.

Both Duke and UNC will be high seeds on Selection Sunday, but today belongs to the Racers.  Because with Murray State’s victory, they become the first team to get their invitation to the 2018 NCAA Tournament.  And while there is always a lot made out of rivalry games, Murray State faced the harsher reality of many small conference teams.  Despite only losing 5 games the entire season and being the best team in your conference, your tournament hopes become a one game season – win and you are in, lose and it is all taken away.  To make matters harder for Murray State, that one game was against one of the two teams from the conference that beat them in the regular season.

The Racers were up to the challenge – and ran away in the second half to claim the title.   Congratulations to the Racers for claiming the first spot in the Big Dance!!!!!

With Tom Izzo getting me all riled up, I needed to find something good about college basketball.

Enter Iowa’s point guard Jordan Bohannon.  Jordan had been on a pretty impressive streak, hitting 34 straight free throws, making him tied for the school record with Chris Street.

Some of you might not know Chris Street, but he played basketball when I went to college at Purdue.  Street was a star player for the Iowa Hawkeyes in 1993.  During that season, he had also set the record with 34 straight free throws.  Tragically, he never got the chance to extend that record streak – his life was cut short when he was involved in a car accident.

On Sunday, Bohannon found himself on the line against Northwestern with the chance to hit that 35th free throw and extend the Hawkeyes 8 point lead with just 2 minutes to play.  Jordan stepped up to the line, and missed the FT badly short.  Then, a minute later, Bohannon made it back to the line, and before he shot the next free throw, he touched his heart and pointed to the sky.  While he was making the next two free throws to secure Iowa’s lead, it became very clear that he intentionally missed the last free throw to preserve Street’s record.

With everything that is going on in college basketball, it is clear what lengths people will go to win.  Which is why you have to love the fact that on Sunday in Iowa, a young man decided that it was more important to preserve the legacy of a player who died tragically.  For that, Jordan Bohannon deserves so much more than a school record.

So, I have lots of thoughts around the horrible things going on in my favorite sport.  I need a night when I can gather my thoughts ranging from all the players who are taking money from agents, to LeBron James criticizing the NCAA for being corrupt, to a wiretap saying that Sean Miller talking about paying $100K to get a player to come to Arizona.

But I have to give a quick comment about the recent news conference where Tom Izzo said that he and his team will only be answering basketball questions from here on in.  He doesn’t like while his #2 Spartans have just won the Big 10 and have a legitimate chance at winning the National Championship, he is getting questioned about the multiple sexual assault allegations that have happened to players in his program and why his star player from this year was one of the 7 active players getting improper benefits according to the report by Yahoo.

I can understand he doesn’t like it.  But Tom Izzo is paid $3.65 million a year to be the face of the Michigan State basketball program.  And that means going to press conferences and answering questions from the media.  It is not hard to guess what questions the media are going to ask – he has obviously anticipated them if he says he is not going to answer anything other than basketball.  He might not like it – but his job doesn’t end when the clock hits zero on the court.  With that kind of money, he can prep a little bit and have a planned answer for all the questions he doesn’t want to answer.

Or how about this.  He says he owes it to his team to get the focus back on basketball.   But lets say his star Miles Bridges gets to the NBA.  Then, he is going to have to answer the media’s questions all the time, whether they are about things on or off the court.  How about instead of hiding his star player from the press, why not earn a little bit of his outrageous salary and coach that player on how to prepare for a press conference when they are going to ask tough questions.

I don’t think Miles Bridges is a bad person for having lunch with an agent – he is likely going to need an agent when he goes pro.  But what I do have a problem with is that Tom Izzo feels that he should be allowed to simply run practices, win basketball games and then answer questions about how proud he is of his team when they win.  He is paid a lot of money to represent Michigan State as the leader of that program.  And when there are lots of questions about what is happening outside the court, as much as he might not like it, it is his job to answer them.  He can answer them with a very lawyer like answer of – I can’t answer that because of student privacy laws, or I wasn’t there – I can’t watch my players and their parents 24/7.  But for $3.65 million, he should at least spend some time and prepare a canned response instead of getting angry that he is getting asked questions he doesn’t want to answer.

Some of the games tonight should be really good – Virginia Tech is at home trying to upset Duke, Texas has a huge bubble game at Kansas, and what should be a fantastic game between #12 Texas Tech and #20 West Virginia.

But quietly without much fanfare, in the arenas of four small colleges, the Atlantic Sun’s Conference Tournament has begun tonight.  It even has begun with some of the normal chaos – as #1 seed Florida Gulf Coast found themselves only up 3 at halftime against last place USC Upstate before running away in the second half, and #2 seed Lipscomb is currently only up 1 at halftime against 7 seed Stetson.

It is only two weeks away – the Madness is coming.   Bubble teams try to get one more win so that they don’t need to depend on winning a couple games in their conference tourney (as I am typing this, the Hokies just got a tip-in with 4 seconds to pull off a 64-63 upset over Duke).  Small conference regular season champions try to figure out how to win three more games so they get their deserved invitation to the Big Dance.

Two weeks of huge drama will be happening on the court.  Buzzer beaters and Cinderella runs all leading up to Selection Sunday.  It is almost March!!!!!

It is only February – but College Basketball is in full swing!!!!!  And that means that it is time for the Lunatic to get ready for his favorite time of year!!!!   MARCH MADNESS!!!!

The site has been updated to get us ready for the 2018 Stomp the Lunatic tournament!   That means that the standings pages don’t really lead to anything at the moment – since the games haven’t started.   You can register for this year’s tournament (just please remember the name and email that you use – since you won’t be able to enter your picks, you will have to eventually log back in later).  Also, just remember that you always have to register for the new year’s tournament – the database does not remember you from last year….

In the meantime, you are welcome to look at previous year’s standings and blogs.   I will probably start posting my basketball comments here instead of Facebook, so you can enjoy those as well.

Do you want to tell us your thoughts – the 2018 User Blog is already setup for you to tell us what you want – just please keep it clean (since we do have children who participate).

Good luck to everyone in stomping the Lunatic!!!!

Congratulations to our Standard Pool champion – Lauren Martin.   Lauren ran away with the pool as she got 3 of the Final 4 correct in UNC, Gonzaga and Oregon, but also correctly forecasted that UNC would beat Gonzaga in the championship game.   Ashley Peterson finished second, just 70 points behind, and Jessica Atkinson finished in 3rd, just 110 points behind.

The Lunatic then has to give a special call out to those who were tied for 4th.  That is because I know that my mother-in-law, Kate Yost, is thrilled to death that her Tar Heels won and helped her bracket get into 4th place.    She ended up tied with David Zimmerman, who was my roommate in college at Purdue.   As I was getting stomped, it was enjoyable for me to see my mother-in-law and one of my close friends do so well in the pool.    And they were not the only ones who did well – my wonderful wife, Elizabeth, also finished tied for 10th.   That is a fitting prize for the wonderful woman who puts up with my madness every March – oh who am I kidding, she puts up with my madness all year round.  Not sure how I got so lucky.

In the Upset Pool, Greg Williams was the big winner as he picked UNC to win the championship.   It was those 6 points that allowed Greg to sneak out the championship over our Round 4 leader Kyle Kelly by a single point.   Both Greg and Kyle managed to get to the top of the board by picking 11 seed Xavier to the Elite 8, but in the end, it was picking a #1 seed that led Greg to the championship.   This really was one of the closest upset pools that I remember, because Earl McKnight came 1 point short of catching Kyle as well thanks to the Tar Heels victory in his third place finish.

In the Second Chance Pool, Tony Bisese correctly picked UNC to beat Gonzaga and win by 40 points.    He was closely followed by a 4-way tie for 2nd place – congrats to Jack White, Kelly McDowell, John Howarth, and Andrea Zimmerman (yes, Dave’s wife also managed to make it into the prize list).

The Lunatic managed to quietly sneak up the standings a little bit with his sane picks, since they had picked North Carolina to win the championship as well.   But unlike his mother-in-law and wife, that pick was only good enough to move up to a tie for 68th place.   That also put the Lunatic behind his 10 year old son Charlie (tie for 30th) and his 7 year old daughter Katie (tie for 53rd).    So while not as big of a stomping as it looked like when he was buried on the standings page somewhere in the 100s, if we include the tie-breaker, 69 of you Stomped the Lunatic!!!!   So that is still a pretty good stomping.

Congratulations below to all of our Stomp the Lunatic winners!!!!!

STANDARD POOL

1) Lauren Martin – 1300

2) Ashley Peterson – 1230 (FUN)

3) Jessica Atkinson – 1190

4th Tie) Kate Yost and David Zimmerman – 1180

6) Joel Lander – 1170

7) William England – 1150

8) Earl McKnight – 1120

9) KJ Martin – 1110

10th Tie) Rohit Kapoor #1, Rohit Kapoor #2, Elizabeth Hodgson and Kevin Flippen – 1100

LAST) Joe Chapman – 380

UPSET POOL

1) Greg Williams – 246

2) Kyle Kelly – 245

3) Earl McKnight – 244

4th Tie) Mark Schumaker and John Howarth – 239

SECOND CHANCE POOL

1) Tony Bisese – 840

2nd Tie) Jack White, Kelly McDowell, John Howarth, and Andrea Zimmerman – 800

 

Congratulations again to Lauren Martin – our 2017 Standard Pool champion, Greg Williams – our 2017 Upset Pool champion, and Tony Bisese – our 2017 Second Chance champion!!!!   And of course, congratulations again to the North Carolina Tar Heels – our 2017 National Champions!!!

What a great game!!!!!    Both teams point guards had amazing games.   All second half, Joel Berry II kept hitting big shots for North Carolina to keep the game close as he scored 22 points.  But it was Nigel Williams-Goss who brought Gonzaga back when UNC had built a small lead, including a great drive on Justin Jackson with 2 1/2 minutes to give the Bulldogs a 63-62 lead.

Justin Jackson, who struggled from the field during the game, drove to the hoop and got fouled by Williams-Goss and hit one of his free throws to tie the game.    This led to the Gonzaga point guard driving again on Jackson and hitting another big basket.   But the lead was short lived as Theo Pinson had a nice pass to a cutting Jackson, who hit the layup in the paint and got fouled again.   Jackson hit the free throw to give the Tar Heels a 66-65 lead – a lead that they would not give up.

Sadly, on the next possession, Williams-Goss got tangled up with Pinson and injured his ankle.   While he stayed in the game, you have to wonder how much that impacted his play in the final minute.    Williams-Goss tried to drive on Pinson, but missed his fade-away jumper as Pinson did a great job of not leaving his feet so Williams-Goss could draw the foul and forced a tough shot.

Then, in another fitting way to end, UNC let some time come off the clock, but because of some great defense by Gonzaga, Berry had to force up a three-pointer that missed.   And the ball fell into Kennedy Meeks hands.  He actually lost it for a minute, but was able to fall on it and get a jump ball called – giving the Tar Heels a chance to run more clock.    With the time running down on the shot clock, Isaiah Hicks drove to the basket and the senior made a huge basket to make it 68-65.

After a time-out, Williams-Goss tried to drive to the basket and Kennedy Meeks blocked his runner, with the defensive rebound going to Berry.   Berry quickly outlet the ball to a streaking Justin Jackson who dunked the ball to give the Tar Heels a commanding lead.   As Gonzaga tried to rush the ball desparately up the court, Meeks stepped up again and stole the ball.   Fittingly, he got the ball into his point guard’s hands.   And Berry, the Final Four MVP who kept the Tar Heels in this game, scored the final point of the Tar Heels 9-2 run on the free throw line.

All tournament, it had been the Tar Heels finding a second gear in the final four minutes.   Whether it be going on late game runs like they did against Arkansas and Kentucky, or whether it was coming up with big offensive rebounds as they did against Oregon, North Carolina found a way to get their redemption from last year.  Maybe it was also fitting that UNC coach Roy Williams managed to win his 3rd national championship in his 100th NCAA Tournament game.

You have to give so much credit to Gonzaga – they fought hard and had such an amazing season – it is hard to go 37-2 in college basketball.   But tonight, the Tar Heels had just too many weapons, and they managed in the second half to find the right hot hand at just the right time.  Congratulations to the North Carolina Tar Heels – they are the 2017 NCAA Basketball Champions!!!!!

Joel Berry II looks like he stripped the ball from Przemek Karnowski and there is lots of contact on the way down.   Initially, they called the foul on Berry (although replay looks like he got it clean).   But Berry was on the ground for a while from the hit by the big 7 footer (which was not intentional, just two players going for the ball).   Then, they went to the replay and called a flagrant one on Karnowski for hitting Berry in the head (totally by accident) as they both fell to the floor.

How can you call a flagrant one when you didn’t even initially call the foul on the player?   Of course, since the replay looked like Berry got the ball cleanly, maybe the foul should have been on Karnowski.   And Berry was kind enough to miss both free throws.   But that becomes the 4th on Karnowski.   And as I type this, Zach Collins just fouled out on a push-off for a defensive rebound.

If they keep calling this so tight, there will be no one left to play.