It is almost an inevitability that many of you will Stomp the Lunatic - and we all know that drives the Lunatic crazy. He loves college basketball so much that he feels he has to show that he can provide tons of brilliant analysis and insight to predict the games. So, he has created this extremely time-consuming part of his web-blog where since he knows his bracket is going to burn in flames, he will demonstrate his brilliance of picking games by picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines. Because if he can't beat half the people in the pool, it is clearly obvious that he can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers.
Lunatic Disclosure #1This is for recreational purposes only. The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!!
Lunatic Disclosure #2:In case you haven't read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you. I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.
Lunatic Disclosure #3:In case you haven't read the first two disclosures, I have lost imaginary money in this silly feature for most of the years - I am not really sure why I keep doing it because it really takes a lot of effort. Oh yeah!!! I am crazy about college basketball.
Lunatic Disclosure #4:If you are in Virginia, then you know that from all the FanDuel and DraftKings commercials that some online sportsbooks are now legally operating in Virginia. And despite the fact that I could, I will not create an account on one of those sites and place a bet on ANY of these handicapping choices.
That's right - even though I now could possibly place these bets, I still will not do that. With my luck, that means since I have nothing riding on it, I will be wildly successful this year. But the reality is that I have poor luck when my money is on the game - we all know of the Lunatic Curse.
I am happy to go to my imaginary casino and bet imaginary money on games that I really know absolutely little information about the teams to provide an entertaining blog. Typically it is fun watching me do horribly on spreads and trying to make it up by winning on the over/unders. My commentary on the games are ludicrous since I have no business handicapping any of these games. That is what makes it entertaining.
But at the end of the day, it still is imaginary. No real money gets lost. And the truth is gambling can be a dangerous addiction. I never really worried much about it because where I lived I had the realization that most sane people would never use these picks to make a real bet, and most of us lived in an area where you could not bet on the games. So even if you were crazy enough to try, you couldn't do it.
Now that at least those of us who live in the same state as me have options, I need to really emphasize the point. I do this for fun. It is entertaining for me to see how I do, and I think it is entertaining for the readers to read the commentary. And despite the significantly unusual result from last year where I ended ahead $100 despite losing $123 on the spreads, the Lunatic certainly does not do well enough to be considered a credible handicapper. A sleep-deprived and crazy handicapper - absolutely. Credible - only in the Lunatic's dreams. I will not be betting my money on any of these picks, and so that tells you how much faith I have in them.
Anyways, here is the structure. I predict every game - because what fun would it be otherwise. To give myself a chance, I tier my bets into three types.
A $10 imaginary bet means I have absolutely no clue. I also tend to bet small on games where I have a huge bias (such as when my Boilers play). I can’t make an imaginary bet against the team I want to win. No true fan would go into a Vegas sportsbook and bet against their team - neither will the Lunatic
A $20 imaginary bet means I have some confidence that my pick will win.
A $30 imaginary bet means I am so confident I would lock that pick and go big.
I also have a tendency after a bad first set of games to stop the tier structure and just bet the same amount on every game. I would probably be intelligent to do that to start - but lets face it. There is a tremendous amount of humor in watching the Lunatic curse crush all the picks that I lock.
Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit the games that I have no clue. Maybe I am not giving myself a good chance by tiering my bets!!!
As you know, I sadly lost my Word Press sites, so this page might suffer in appearance for it. I also don't know that I will be able to proudly show the amazing picks I did last year in time. I have them in a horrible format from the WordPress database that I can eventually restore, but I might run out of time before the tournament. We'll see how the bracketology piece goes. However, I do still have the pages from before I foolishly tried to move to a blog format.
| Day | Record against spread | Record against totals |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday's First Four | 0 - 2 - 0 ($-50) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-2) |
| Wednesday's First Four | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-3) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-12) |
| Thursday's First Round | 7 - 9 - 0 ($-23) | 6 - 10 - 0 ($-74) |
| Friday's First Round | 10 - 6 - 0 ($61) | 6 - 10 - 0 ($-112) |
| Saturday's Second Round | 5 - 3 - 0 ($49) | 7 - 1 - 0 ($114) |
| Sunday's Second Round | 3 - 5 - 0 ($-35) | 4 - 4 - 0 ($-9) |
| Thursday's Sweet 16 | 2 - 2 - 0 ($-6) | 3 - 1 - 0 ($51) |
| Friday's Sweet 16 | 3 - 1 - 0 ($51) | 2 - 2 - 0 ($-6) |
| Saturday's Elite 8 | 2 - 0 - 0 ($54) | 2 - 0 - 0 ($54) |
| Sunday's Elite 8 | 2 - 0 - 0 ($54) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-3) |
| Saturday's Final 4 | 2 - 0 - 0 ($54) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-3) |
| Monday's Championship | 0 - 0 - 0 ($0) | 0 - 0 - 0 ($0) |
| Overall | 37 - 29 - 0 ($206) | 34 - 32 - 0 ($-2) |
The Lunatic is dreaming!!!! His Boilermakers are in the championship game!!!! It should be a fantastic game! The battle between Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan should be epic!!! I am a little nervous whether Purdue can slow down the Connecticut back-court, but Lance Jones has over-achieved, especially on the defensive end of the court. But to be fair, I have been horribly nervous throughout the entire tournament, so why stop being nervous now. Not to mention that Matt Painter has done a fantastic job of managing matchups throughout the tournament. The Lunatic Bias has only one choice - to pick his Boilermakers!!!!! BOILER UP!!!! As for the over/under, I have to believe that this will be a half-court game. Connecticut typically only runs off turnovers, which Purdue typically does a good job of keeping to a minimum. And Purdue is going to want to run their offense through Edey which typically slows the game down. Add into it the nerves of playing in a national championship, and you have to like the under.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(30) Totals: Under(30)
I am playing with imaginary house money!!!! So, as any compulsive gambler would do, I will obviously continue to max out my bets!!!! If I do poorly, I can always go low in the championship game and walk away with enough imaginary money to buy myself some imaginary Chick-Fil-A. But we all know when you have a chance to gamble with the casino's money, you go for it - respect the streak!!!! And this game includes my bias!!!!! Honestly, 9.5 points scares me, since that appears a lot. But I have certain rules - and obviously I would never bet against my Boilers. What fan goes into a Sportsbook and puts money on the other team!!! The Lunatic is crazy but not that crazy. That being said, I can give a little guidance on the over/under. Purdue/Tennessee combined for 138 points, and NC State/Duke combined for 140 points. So, with the total being at 146.5, I do really like the under.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Purdue 63, NC State 50 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
Lets continue with talking about streaks. The Connecticut Huskies have now played 10 games over the last 2 NCAA Tournaments. And they would be 10-0 against covering an 11.5 spread. Look, I want the game to be close. And if any team had a chance of scoring against the Huskies vaunted defense, it would certainly be Alabama. But you have to respect the streak. It would be crazy to pick against the Huskies - the Lunatic Casino can not figure out how to give enough points to make me change my mind. Take the Huskies!!!! As for the over, I am going to do a little bit of a strategic hedge. If Alabama does keep this game close, it is going to turn into a shootout like the UNC game - in that case, you take the over at 161.5. On the other hand, with the way Alabama will push the pace, there is a chance that UConn wins by double digits but still scores 90 points - which would also cover the over. It is certainly a possibility that UConn shuts down Alabama's amazing offense for the game the way they did against Illinois. But in that scenario, we will still win the bet for the Huskies. So, why not be a little safe and take the over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Connecticut(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Connecticut 86, Alabama 72 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
BIAS IS GOING CRAZY - BOILER UP!!!!! When the teams played in Maui, Purdue won 71-67. This line has the teams scoring 10 more points which seems like a lot for a Purdue team that will slow the game down into a half-court game. Go Boilers!!!!!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Purdue 72, Tennessee 66 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
So, lets look at what these teams have done. In the ACC tournament, the Wolfpack won 74-69. When they played in Raleigh, Duke won 79-64. I am not sure that helps me much. Both times they scored 143 - and so of course, Vegas set the line at 142.5. Duke went on the road to beat them in the regular season by 15, just to lose on a neutral court by 5. Something tells me with the way that NC State is playing right now, Duke is not going to be able to run away. And while it is only by 0.5 points, they went over both times so we will go over again. Lets take the Wolfpack in a close game that gets to at least 143 points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: NC State(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: NC State 76, Duke 64 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
In the last 9 games the Huskies have played in the NCAA Tournament, they have won by no less than 13 points. Illinois is a great team, with multiple offensive options. But this Huskies team continues to take out any opponent they face. And I can't get the thought of the game they played in the 2nd round where they were up almost 30 points against Northwestern before taking the foot off the gas. Illinois is obviously a better team that Northwestern - but I don't know that they can upset the Huskies. UConn has the type of defenders that can shut down Shannon - which scares me. And of course, the fact that UConn is killing everyone. Someone might knock the defending champs off - but it seems foolish at this point to bet against them.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Connecticut(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Connecticut 77, Illinois 52 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
Well, I don't know what I am thinking here. If I took the logic from the Purdue / Gonzaga game, you would look at the last time the teams met. Clemson won 85-78 - so that suggests take the Tigers and the under. But Alabama was up 7 with about 13 minutes until Clemson went on a 13-0 run over the next 3 minutes that changed the whole momentum of the game. And of course, we just watched Alabama beat UNC - which is theoretically a better ACC team than Clemson. I think Clemson matches up very well against Alabama, and the Tide's defense is still very questionable at times. But if I had to take one team to come out on top, I am going to take the team that scores points at will.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Alabama(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Alabama 89, Clemson 82 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
I reserve the right to change the Friday games based on any results that steer me from Thursday. But it is my desire to spend more time watching Thursday's games and less time trying to analyze games agaisnt the spread - so here we go! Marquette escaped their last game against Colorado with a 4 point victory. And NC State keeps defying expectations by winning and winning and winning. I don't know if the Wolfpack can continue their magical run against the Golden Eagles, but with a line of 6.5 points, I am going to go with the fun story of the tournament.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: NC State(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: NC State 67, Marquette 58 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
First of all - BIAS, DUH!!!! BOILER UP!!! However, when they played in Maui, Purdue won 73-63 - which suggests taking Purdue and the under. Teams are playing at different levels, and obviously the stakes are much higher. And the Lunatic is Biased!!! BOILER UP!!!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Purdue 80, Gonzaga 68 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
I was really surprised about how many points Texas A&M was able to score on Houston's defense. And while there is no one in the ACC that can prepare Duke for the physicality of the Cougars, I have a suspicion that Duke will be well prepared to exploit the holes that Texas A&M showed. The Aggies might not have won - but they also created a roadmap of how to beat Houston's defense. So, I am going to take a chance here and pick Duke to have the talent to take advantage of that map.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Duke 54, Houston 51 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
This should be one of the most fun games to watch of the Sweet 16. With the line only 2.5 points, and Creighton having so many weapons on how to score, I am going to take the team I feel is a more complete team (with 4 players averaging over 15 points per game) over the team that has the best star player (Dalton Knecht for Tennessee)
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Creighton(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Tennessee 82, Creighton 75 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
Well - it is about that time. I am down $96 dollars. Of course, I would be down more if I was always betting the largest amount - which is a little surprising. But anyways, any compulsive gambler would double down at this point. So, in an attempt to make my money back quickly and still leave the tournament with a decent set of winnings. I will bet $30 across the board on each bet - even if I have a bias. For this game, the question isn't whether or not I think Arizona will win (since the odds are clearly in their favor). The question is whether I think Clemson can keep it close. With Clemson proving me wrong by beating Baylor by 8 (and Arizona only beating Dayton by 10), I am going to take my chances with Clemson covering the 7.5 points in a lower scoring game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Clemson(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Clemson 77, Arizona 72 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
I have seen games this year where San Diego State struggled to score - but stayed in the game because of their defense. I have seen so many games this year where Connecticut wins by double digits. The total of the game against Northwesten stayed under 135.5 and I think Northwestern is a better offensive team - so going to go under figuring UConn's defense will stop the Aztecs, and the Huskies will slow the pace down once they have a comforrtable lead.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Connecticut(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Connecticut 82, San Diego State 52 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
North Carolina really impressed me with their vicory over Michigan State (not that I wasn't already impressed). I have been pleasantly surprised with Alabama getting to the Sweet 16 - and surviving a game where they did not shoot well (only scoring 72 against Grand Canyon). I am still a little nervous about Alabama's defense against a top team like the Tar Heels - so I am going with UNC. As for the over/under, this line is predicting 89-84, which is certainly in the realm of possibility but it feels more likely for UNC's defense to keep the totals under those numbers.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: North Carolina(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Alabama 89, North Carolina 87 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
Illinois is a team that has fast quick guards that can drive well to the basket, winning games with their offense. Iowa State is a team that plays such physical defense that nothing gets by them, and there are no easy shots. The Big 10 is a phyiscal league, but I don't think any team can prepare Illinois for what they are about to face. And if Illinois struggles to score, you have to figure Iowa State will win by at least 2 points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa State(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Illinois 72, Iowa State 69 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
This game makes me nervous - record-wise and performance wise, Colorado and Oregon were extremely similar in the Pac 12. And so were Marquette and Creighton in the Big East. We just watched Creighton and Oregon go to double overtime before the Big East team came out ahead - so what should we expect here. Probably another close game (which is what Vegas picked). I am going to go with my gut and take Shaka Smart's team.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Marquette(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Marquette 81, Colorado 77 Spread: $18 Totals: $27
The Bias is here - never go against your team!!!!! Look - Utah State is obviously a good team by the way they dismantled TCU. They should not be underestimated by anyone. But obviously no one will be underestimating Zach Edey and Braden Smith. BOILER UP!!!!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Purdue 106, Utah State 67 Spread: $9 Totals: $18
I was surprised that Duke really struggled scoring against Vermont - but their defense helped them pull away. Meanwhile, James Madison is playing with house money after their double digit win against Wisconsin. I don't know if James Madison can take out the ACC power-house, but if Vegas is going to give me 7.5 points, I am going to root for James Madison. Actually, I was going to do that anyways - we all know the Lunatic loves the mid-major schools when they are not playing Purdue.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: James Madison(10) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Duke 93, James Madison 55 Spread: $-10 Totals: $27
This makes me a little nervous. After Virgiinia struggled, the rest of the ACC is putting up a pretty good tournament. Both these teams won big in their first round games. But with the line being 4.5 points, I think you have to take the team that has been ranked all season over the team that has been a little bit inconsistent at times. I will take Baylor
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Baylor(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Clemson 72, Baylor 64 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
Alabama scored 109 points against Charleston, but they also gave up 96. Grand Canyon scored 75 points against a very defensive-minded St. Mary's (and won by double digits). I am ready for the track-meet. Someone is going to get to 90 points in this game, and likely both of them will. As for the line, I am going to take Grand Canyon - I am a little scared about Alabama's defense, and so I have a feeling this could be the classic game where each team scores back and forth. With 6.5 points, I will take Cinderella cautiously
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Grand Canyon(10) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Alabama 72, Grand Canyon 61 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-30
Connecticut is an amazing team - they clearly deserve their number 1 overall seed. But Northwestern is a strong Big 10 team that has played plenty of talented teams and has only lost by double digits once this season (when they forgot to show up to Champaign for a game against Illinois). They tend to keep games close, and they have a player who can carry a team when the rest are struggling. Every team in the tournament tends to have that one game that they need to survive a scary moment. With the line at 14.5, I have to take Northwestern to provide the Huskies that scary moment (or at least keep the game in single digits).
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Northwestern(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Connecticut 75, Northwestern 58 Spread: $-20 Totals: $9
Don't get fooled by the number of points that Texas A+M scored against Nebraska - the Cornhuskers are a fun team to watch because of how fast they play but they are not the strongest on defense. The number to remember in this game is 48 - the number of points Houston held Longwood to in their first round game. Houston has held their opponents to 50 points or less in 12 games this season, and 51-60 in another 10 games. There is no one you can play out there (other than maybe Iowa State) that can prepare you for the physical defense that the Cougars play - and it is easy once you go on a run of not scoring for 3 or 4 possessions of going away from your game and compoundnig the mistakes by taking bad shots. I wish the line wasn't so high, but I am still going to take the Cougars.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Houston(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Houston 100, Texas A+M 95 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
Yale does not play at a fast pace, and neither do the Aztecs. So, this could be a first team to 50 wins situation. I really want to take Yale. I love the Cinderella teams. But San Diego State seems to do really well in March. I also wonder if there is a little bit of an advantage by not being one of the power conference schools. It is easy to underestimate a team like Yale when you are from a power conference - of course, you will stomp on the Ivy League team. But teams like Yale are the only types of competition Mountain West teams get because no one is crazy enough to schedule them - and the Mountain West does very well in these games.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: San Diego State(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: San Diego State 85, Yale 57 Spread: $18 Totals: $-20
Something has to give - the Pac 12 is 5-0 in their final season as a league. The Atlantic 10 is 2-0 when I expected them to fall apart. I have to give Dayton an incredible amount of respect for their amazing comeback against Nevada. But if Dayton falls behind double digits to Arizona, the Wildcats won't let them come back. I suspect that the Wildcats will win this running away.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Arizona(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Arizona 78, Dayton 68 Spread: $18 Totals: $18
Kansas was able to survive Samford without Kevin McCullar Jr. But Gonzaga is an experienced team that will be a different story. This would have been a great game if Kansas had everyone - but I have to believe that Gonzaga will take this game with Kansas' injury issues.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Gonzaga(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Gonzaga 89, Kansas 68 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
This is a tough game for me to pick. On one side, you should probably never pick against Tom Izzo in March. On the other side, you should normally always take a 1 seed that is only giving up 3.5 points to a 9 seed. I think the fear of how well Izzo teams do in March has made this line too good to pass up for the Tar Heels. I will not put much on it - but I will take UNC
Lunatic Picks - Spread: North Carolina(10) Totals: Over(30)
Results: North Carolina 85, Michigan State 69 Spread: $9 Totals: $27
Sometimes I get too caught up with trends like the Pac 12 is 5-0 in the tournament so far and teams that were not ranked in the pre-season polls but get a top seed don’t perform to expectations. However, sometimes you just have to predict the game based on their resume. In that case, I would clearly take the Iowa State Cyclones to completely shut down Washington State. Take the Cyclones in a defensive battle.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa State(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Iowa State 67, Washington State 56 Spread: $27 Totals: $18
On Thursday, I wasn't sure which NC State would be coming to the tournament. They showed me they are on a winning streak that you have to just keep riding the streak. Add into it that the clock tends to strike midnight at this point in the tournament, and you then have to take the Wolfpack to make it to the Sweet 16,.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: NC State(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: NC State 79, Oakland 73 Spread: $-20 Totals: $9
I still remember a few streaks in Texas' first round game where they struggled to score. I could see points in this game where that happens as well - except Tennessee will jump on them. I am going to go with Tennessee to cover here.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Tennessee(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Tennessee 62, Texas 58 Spread: $-20 Totals: $18
I thought BYU would crush Duquesne when the line of that game was 9.5 - yet, here we are where I am picking another game with a big college team being favored to beat Duquesne by 9.5. I suspect that Illinois will win this game - but there are also enough chances that Duquesne keeps this game close that I will cautiously take them (and the points)
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duquesne(10) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Illinois 89, Duquesne 63 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-30
I really was impressed with how the Oregon Ducks played their way into the tournament by winning the Pac 12. They continued that streak by beating 6 seed South Carolina. But Creighton was one of the small number of teams that had KenPom efficiency rankings that said they could win the entire tournament. And while the Ducks seem to be run based on their two stars (Couisnard and Dante), Creighton has a star center who can neutralize Dante (Kalkbrenner) and a balanced offense that saw 4 players average in double digits - led by Scheierman and Alexander.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Creighton(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Creighton 86, Oregon 73 Spread: $18 Totals: $27
FAU is still a good team but they are not playing as well as when they made last year's Final Four. The win against Arizona was impressive but then the season kind of went downhill from there - including their conf tourney loss to Temple. Northwestern has been battling some injuries but Boo Buie is still tough to stop. I am going to go with my gut that Northwestern is the better team and so with getting a 2.5 point cushion, take the Wildcats.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Northwestern(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Northwestern 77, Florida Atlantic 65 Spread: $18 Totals: $18
I would expect that Baylor will take control of this game similar to how Iowa St did, and this game will stay in double digits for most of it. I am going to take a chance on Baylor and lock it.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Baylor(30) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Baylor 92, Colgate 67 Spread: $27 Totals: $18
When I handicapped this game for my picks, I thought this would be a tight game but gave the edge to the Aztecs. However, if I am also going to get 7.5 points, I am leaning toward taking the Blazers. I think UAB will keep it close the whole game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: UAB(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: San Diego State 69, UAB 65 Spread: $18 Totals: $-30
Marquette has typically covered the 14.5 points when playing against teams with a NET profile like Western Kentucky. It is a lot of points, but I think they can cover it.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Marquette(20) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Marquette 87, Western Kentucky 69 Spread: $18 Totals: $27
I would just stay away from this game. Connecticut normally wins against mid-majors by 30+ points. But Stetson only lost by that many points a few times - and they also played against some really good teams and kept the games close. I will simply stay away from this line.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Stetson(10) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Connecticut 91, Stetson 52 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-10
I don't have a lot of comparison points - but Clemson did beat Boise St by 17, while New Mexico lost twice to them (although they did win by 10 in the conf tourney game). You add in the fact that the Mountain West tends to get knocked off early in March, and you should take Clemson - despite their end of season struggles.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Clemson(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Clemson 77, New Mexico 56 Spread: $18 Totals: $9
Yale lost by 15 to Gonzaga and Kansas - so it looks like this line is placed right. I am going to stick with the favorites here and say Auburn runs away with this one.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Auburn(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Yale 78, Auburn 76 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-10
In every like opponent game that these teams played, Florida performed better. I really want to take Colorado - the lore of the First Four says take the upset. But the statistics say that Florida is the better team. I will bet cautiously on the statistics.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Florida(10) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Colorado 102, Florida 100 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-30
These teams performed pretty close to each other against their two like opponents (although I would give the edge to the Cornhuskers). So in these cases, I would lean towards the team playing in the conference that looks stronger right now - and after all the SEC losses on Thursday, that is the Big 10.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Nebraska(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Texas A+M 98, Nebraska 83 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
I have been fooled by Vermont before - and it never ends well for me. They have two like games - Virginia Tech (Duke won by 10, Vermont lost by 22), and Dartmouth (Duke won by 38, Vermont won by 11) - Those are both putting Duke as 27-32 points better - so lock in the Blue Devils.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Duke 64, Vermont 47 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
This is the biased bet. You never go into a sportsbook and place money on your favorite team's opponent. You always support your team. So, I put my lowest bet on the Boilers and simply say BOILER UP!!!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Purdue 78, Grambling State 50 Spread: $9 Totals: $-20
Alabama has really struggled towards the end of the season. And Charleston is a team that tends to get to the tournament - so they won't be easily taken out. But, Alabama has normally kncoked out mid-major opponents by double digits and Charleston lost by double digits to Florida Atlantic and Duquesne, Roll Tide.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Alabama(10) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Alabama 109, Charleston 96 Spread: $9 Totals: $-30
23.5 points is a lot to cover for a defensive team. It is very possible that Houston's defense holds Longwood to 50 points. But it is also very possible that Houston's offense doesn't get to the 73 points needed to ccover. Have to give the oddsmakers some fun credit here. They have one like opponent - Dayton. The number of points between their performances was 23......
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Longwood(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Houston 86, Longwood 46 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-10
JMU managed to march into Michigan State at the start of the season and won. They are more than ready to try to pull off the upset. Wisconsin is one of the most inconsistent teams in the tournament. And they have been on a hot streak as they made the finals in the Big 10 championship. But that probably means they are ready to have a bad game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: James Madison(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: James Madison 72, Wisconsin 61 Spread: $18 Totals: $9
Sometimes, you have to try to ride out trends. I have a Big 12 team against the Mountain West. The Big 12 tends to do very well in the opening rounds (although BYU and Texas Tech did get upset on Thursday). The Mountain West does not do well - period. Texas beat Colorado State by 12, and Vegas is so afraid of this that they made the worst seeded team a 4.5 point favorite. Vegas is basically saying they expect TCU to win as well - and if you add in free throws to ice the game, I suspect TCU covers the 4.5
Lunatic Picks - Spread: TCU(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Utah State 88, TCU 72 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
I could see this game going both ways. Grand Canyon beat San Diego State by 6 this year - so they are certainly capable of hanging with St. Mary's. The numbers say that getting 5.5 points should make me more confident. But I also remember watching St. Mary's look really good in the WCC Final against Gonzaga - a team that won their first round game by 21 points. I am going to go with my initial gut and take Grand Canyon - but do it cautiously.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Grand Canyon(10) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Grand Canyon 75, Saint Mary's 66 Spread: $9 Totals: $27
I have learned this over and over and over again. Never bet against Tom Izzo in March - if you do, do not bet large. Both teams have been inconsistent through the year - so I am going to take the team that seems to be playing in March every year.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan State(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Michigan State 69, Mississippi State 51 Spread: $18 Totals: $-30
I have watched a lot of basketball from both the Big 12 and the Atlantic 10, and while the A-10 is a great mid-major conference, the pace of the game is just a little slower. I suspect BYU will be too much with their high octane offense.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: BYU(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Duquesne 71, BYU 67 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
Creighton has beat every 100+ NET team it has played this year by double digits - I have to expect that they will keep that streak a live against Akron.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Creighton(30) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Creighton 77, Akron 60 Spread: $27 Totals: $-10
Long Beach State is going to be playing all out to try to keep their coach's last season alive, and Arizona has really had some struggles down the stretch. 20 points is a lot to cover as is 163.5 points - I will go with LBSU and the under.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Long Beach State(20) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Arizona 85, Long Beach State 65 Spread: $-20 Totals: $27
The Tar Heels will control this game and score a lot of points. I just don't know that they will outscore Wagner by 24.5 points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Wagner(10) Totals: Over(30)
Results: North Carolina 90, Wagner 62 Spread: $-10 Totals: $27
Morehead State lost by 30+ to Purdue and Alabama. I only need Illinois to cover a little more than a third of that. Lock in Illinois!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Illinois(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Illinois 85, Morehead State 69 Spread: $27 Totals: $-20
I am not sure what to think about South Carolina - it is rare for a ranked team to have such bad analytical rankings - if NET just picked the 36 at large teams, South Carolina misses the tournament. Meanwhile, I really was impressed with what Oregon during the Pac 12 tournament. I am going to take a chance on the Ducks.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Oregon(10) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Oregon 87, South Carolina 73 Spread: $9 Totals: $27
To be honest, I am not sure how Dayton was ranked. They beat St. John's and LSU and lost to Northwestern and Houston in the non-conference, and then finished in 3rd in their conference (and lost in their semi-finals). If they were in the Big 12, we would have all those conference wins to brag about, but the Atlantic 10 doesn't have that. It scares me to go with a Mountain West team - but Nevada at least had some ranked conference wins and the win against TCU I am going to pick the upset here.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Nevada(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Dayton 63, Nevada 60 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-30
This is one of those games that I think could go either way. Texas is one of those decent teams that got beat up in conference play. Colorado State looked pretty good against Virginia (although I am not sure that was a product of Virginia's offense being that bad vs. Colorado State's defense). If I am not sure, I am going to go with the rule of stay away from the Mountain West.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Texas 56, Colorado State 44 Spread: $9 Totals: $9
Kentucky can score so many points - they broke 100 points 6 times this season, so by the time they are done, Oakland might only need to score 60-65 points in a fast paced game to cover the over. Oakland was competitive against Illinois and Ohio State, but I going to expect the pace of this game will help Kentucky cover both spread and total. I am not willing to lock either - 162.5 points is a lot, and Oakland is a good team. But I would take Kentucky here.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Kentucky(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Oakland 80, Kentucky 76 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
This is not the same Gonzaga team that we are used to - they are more vulnerable than in past years. But I know absolutely nothing about McNeese. You certainly are a good team if you go 30-3, but when your biggest victory is against VCU (although to be fair, our local darlings did beat Villanova in Philadelphia last night in the NIT). I will probably be rooting for the upset, but if I have to put imaginary money on the game, I am going to go with the known quantity of Gonzaga - especially if I only need to give 5.5 points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Gonzaga(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Gonzaga 86, McNeese 65 Spread: $18 Totals: $9
The Cyclones have held 6 teams to under 50 points (including Houston in the Big 12 championship) and multiple teams to under 60. South Dakota State played a Big 12 school in the season in Kansas State and lost by 23. So, while 15.5 points is a lot, I am going to go with the Cyclones in a game that first to 50 wins.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa State(10) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Iowa State 82, South Dakota State 65 Spread: $9 Totals: $-30
I am scared of Saint Peter's any time I see their name. They haunt my soul. That aside, they also are a classic team that slows the game down and keeps games close that way (including only losing by 11 to Seton Hall). Obviously, Tennessee is the best team they have faced all season - but 21.5 is a lot to cover in a slow paced game. I would normally just 100% stay away from this game - Vegas is basically saying the score is going to be 75-54. Basically, I could very easily see the Volunteers be unstoppable and score 85 points and crush everything. And I can't get the thought of St. Peter's upsetting everyone. Simply stay away.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Saint Peter's(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Tennessee 83, Saint Peter's 49 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-10
Which NC State team is going to show up to the dance? The team playing with house money and nothing to lose that won 5 games in 5 days in the ACC Tournament. Or the team that struggled to a 9-11 record in regular season play. Or a team that is simply exhausted from their run last week. Texas Tech is a very good ranked team from the Big 12. I like to try to find like opponents in these game before going with my gut - and both teams played BYU - the Wolfpack lost to BYU by 9, while Texas Texh beat the Cougars twice. The analytics say take Texas Tech, and so until I see some more magic, I am going to go with the analytics.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas Tech(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: NC State 80, Texas Tech 67 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-10
Kansas has looked down right awful the last two games. But Houston can do that to a team. And anyone missing their top 2 scorers are going to look bad. I can't get past the fact that Samford got beat by 53 by Purdue and 10 by VCU. Do I think that the current version of Kansas is equal to VCU - probably. I love upsets so I will be rooting for Samford - so that is probably more reason to take Kansas. I would stay away normally from the spread. But I actually really like over. Samford plays fast pace and hits a lot of three pointers, and the Jayhawks will be more than happy to run with them.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Kansas(10) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Kansas 93, Samford 89 Spread: $-10 Totals: $27
This is another one I really just don't know about. Drake is a highly efficient team that is very good offensively. Washington State is a pretty good defensive team that swept Arizona, and did very well in the Pac 12 but has nothing to show outside of the conference. Then again, Drake doesn't have a lot to show other than their big victories over Indiana State and a non-conference victory over Nevada. It is also unusual when Vegas favors the underdog - so not sure what the models are telling me here. I am going to go with Drake in a game where both teams play well offensively and cover the over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Drake(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Washington State 66, Drake 61 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-20
Don't know much about either team, but Montana St has a NET of 208 while Grambling is 279 - so the statistics say Montana State is the better team. If I figure they will control the game, have to figure they also will control the pace and the score will go over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Montana State(30) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Grambling State 88, Montana State 81 Spread: $-30 Totals: $18
So, if I exclude San Diego State's magical run last year (and Tuesday night's debacle by Virginia), the Mountain West is 0-11 since 2019. Colorado had won their last 8 before losing in the Pac 12 final, and I think the Pac 12 is better than what the stats made them. I am going to go aggressive and pick the Buffalos and pick the over in a fast paced high scoring game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Colorado(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Colorado 60, Boise State 53 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
Neither team did particularly well as their top victories are in the 150+ of NET. But Howard had some competitive games against Cincinnati and Georgia Tech - so I think they are the slightly better team. That being said, Wagner plays at a very slow pace and add the pressure of the tournament could lead to a low scoring game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Howard(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Wagner 71, Howard 68 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-20
Virginia is one of those teams that I don't think the metrics look favorably at. They had a few games where they lost big that effect their efficiency rankings. But they were the 3rd place team in the ACC. It is crazy to me that we could take the 3rd place team from the ACC and get 2.5 points against a Mountain West team that tied for 6th (but did win their conference tournament). The only thing that stops me from locking this is the Cavaliers' amazing ability to go ice cold.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Virginia(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Colorado State 67, Virginia 42 Spread: $-20 Totals: $18
