Stomp The Lunatic

Monday is the day that I call the calm before the storm. The power conference tournaments don’t start until Tuesday or Wednesday, and so there are only a few games being played tonight. That certainly doesn’t mean there is nothing at stake – every game happening is a mid-major conference tournament game and so if you lose, your dreams to dance in the tournament are done.

Since I am a little behind, lets first congratulate the teams that have punched their ticket to the dance.

• Long Island University – NEC (although they do play Tuesday night against transitioning Mercyhurst for their conference tournament title).
• Tennessee State – OVC (the regular season co-champ crushed the other co-champ Morehead St 93-67)
• Northern Iowa – MVC (the first 6 seed to win Arch Madness according to the CBS broadcast – they beat UIC 84-69)
• High Point – Big South (the regular season champion beat the runner-up Winthrop 91-76 to reach an incredible 30-4 record)
• Queens – Atlantic Sun (the 3 seed held off an exciting rally by regular season co-champion Central Arkansas to win in overtime 98-93)
• North Dakota State – Summit (the regular season champion defended their spot against in-state rival North Dakota with a 70-62 victory)

For tonight’s viewing guide, there are two more automatic bids getting decided at 7 pm.

• Sun Belt (7 pm ESPN2) – regular season champion Troy (21-11, 12-6) faces off against 10 seed Georgia Southern (21-15, 8-10), who have survived 5 games in 5 days in the brutal gauntlet tournament.
• Southern (7 pm ESPN) – regular season champion East Tennessee State (23-10, 13-5) will try to beat 6 seed Furman (21-12, 10-8) for a third time (they battled to overtime at ETSU before winning by 9 on the road at Furman)

The best games of the night might be the semi-finals of the West Coast Conference, and these will impact the bubble the greatest.

• 12th ranked Gonzaga will play 4th seed Oregon State at 9 pm – if you are a fan of a bubble team, you need Gonzaga to win this game and prevent the Beavers from stealing a bid tomorrow.
• 21st ranked St. Mary’s will play 3rd seed Santa Clara – this game has huge bubble implications. St. Mary’s is probably safe based on their poll ranking – mainly thanks to their upset of Gonzaga at home to claim a share of the WCC regular season title. Santa Clara is getting some attention as one of the last teams in – but their only Quad 1 win is their 8 pt home victory against St. Mary’s in January. Getting to the West Coast Final might be enough for either team to feel safer going into Selection Sunday, while whoever loses will have a long week ahead of watching how the other bubble teams and potential bid stealers perform.

It is a shame – I don’t know that the Lunatic can make it to 2 am EST to watch the big game of the evening. But if you can, it looks like it should be a good one.

Enjoy the games!!!

Long Island University became the first team to get an invitation to the dance – and they didn’t even win their conference tournament.

The LIU Sharks beat Wagner 64-56 to get to the NEC championship game. But in the other semi-final, Mercyhurst beat Stonehill 56-51. But Mercyhurst is still in their 4 year transition period from Division II to Division I. So whether the NEC regular season champions can beat Mercyhurst on Tuesday, LIU will still claim the NEC automatic bid.

Later this evening, we have our first actual conference championship final and it feels the way it should happen. The Ohio Valley Conference had co-champions for their regular season as both Tennessee State and Morehead State went 15-5. So, there seems like there is some cosmic justice that the Tennessee State Tigers and Morehead State Eagles have won their way to the title game in Evansville so that they can break the tie on the court.

The Madness is here!!!!

The Miami (OH) Redhawks has a chance at history tonight. According to an article that I read on ncaa.com, 20 teams during the NCAA Tournament era have gone undefeated during the regular season. Tonight at 9 pm, Miami (OH) has a chance to become the 21st, but they will have to survive a road game at the 15-15 Ohio Bobcats.

Earlier this week, the talking heads started to debate if the Redhawks lose in the MAC conference tournament. And since today, the first #1 seed lost in their conference tournament as Belmont got beat by Drake in the Missouri Valley quarterfinals, the reality that an upset can happen feels more realistic than before.

But the debate went wild last weekend when ex-Auburn coach Bruce Pearl made this statement on the Big East telecast. “Here’s the deal. Are we going to select the 68 most deserving teams? Or are we going to select the 68 best teams?” he said. “If we’re selecting the 68 best teams, then Miami (Ohio) is going to have to win their tournament to qualify as a champion, because as an at-large, they are not one of the best teams in the country, and that’s going to be a difficult choice for the committee.” Based on some defense from the Miami OH athletic director later in the week, it sounded like Pearl also made the degrading comment that the Redhawks would have finished last if they were in the Big East.

Pearl then doubled-down on Monday when trying to make a statement that 15-14 Auburn belongs in the field and that they are in the last four in territory if they simply beat LSU on Tuesday, March 3 and then win their first round game of the SEC tournament. Of course, he specifically left out the need to beat rival Alabama on Saturday.

“They’ve got five Quad 1 wins. They’ve got the best win in college basketball on the road at Florida. As far as that margin, it’s either the best or one of the best. So they got a little bit more work to do,” he said.

Pearl added “there’s no love of my son. I mean, there’s no nepotism involved here.”

So, lets break down a few statements here as well as call out some facts.

No offense to the Gators – who might actually win the National Championship in a few weeks and are clearly the best team in the SEC. But I would argue that Wisconsin’s road victory or Duke’s neutral court victory over Michigan, or the Texas Tech neutral court victory over Duke or the Red Raiders road victory at Arizona would count as a better win. Might even go with the Tar Heels home victory over the Blue Devils if you add the tension of the rivalry between the two schools.

And lets not take away games from those top teams simply because they are always winning. Michigan has gone on the road to Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois and left those incredibly difficult places to play with double digit victories. And if we are saying Auburn is a tournament team, then the Wolverine’s 30 point neutral court victory over the Tigers must look incredible.

Auburn’s victory over the Gators is certainly a great victory – but there are 5 other teams who have beaten Florida, while there are only 2 teams who beat the other top 3 teams – I can’t call one of those 6 games the best of the season.

Also, while I don’t want to go back and look, I am pretty sure based on my previous bracketologies, there has been no team in history that has lost 16 games and received an at-large bid to the tournament. If the Tigers lose to Alabama this weekend and then lose in the SEC tournament to need an at-large bid, they will have 16 losses. History does not suggest they will make it.

Considering that Pearl used to coach at Auburn, and that his son still coaches at Auburn, if there is “no nepotism” or love for his son in his statements, then he is not qualified to be talking about college basketball if he is going to say that a team with more losses than any other tournament team in history belongs in over a 32-1 team – even if that team is from the MAC. Bruce Pearl won a lot of basketball games as a coach, and so he knows basketball – and so it is horribly disappointing to hear him make such biased and careless statements.

It really, really bothers me that Pearl suggested that the Red Hawks would finish last in the Big East. Lets just assume that the NET rankings are truly predictive. Miami is 53rd, which is one spot behind Seton Hall at 52nd. The Pirates are 10-9 and 4th in the Big East. Creighton, Providence, Butler, Georgetown, Xavier, Marquette and DePaul all have NET rankings in the 80s and 90s – implying that there are 7 teams that the Redhawks would be favored to beat (especially at home) if they were in the Big East. They probably wouldn’t still be undefeated. Even the conference leaders, Connecticut and St. John’s, have lost twice in the conference. But it is truly unfair to say that Miami would finish in last place in the Big East. In fact, if they played the way they currently are, they likely would be ranked and we wouldn’t be having a debate about if they belong in the tournament.

You will hear stupid statements like the following. Miami OH only beat a team like Mercyhurst by 5 points – a poor Big 10 team like Northwestern beat Mercyhurst by 23. Those types of arguments will leave out the fact that the Redhawks also beat Central Michigan by 39 points – a team that lost by only 14 point on the road at Marquette. The transitive theory might seem fun to rank teams, but they break down when you realize that there are thousands of games in the season and everyone has an off-night. The transitive theory tells us that since the Wisconsin Badgers went on the road and beat #2 Michigan by 3 points, then clearly Villanova and TCU (teams that beat Wisconsin by double digits) would have destroyed the Wolverines if they were given a chance.

At some point, we have to do a comparison point when we look at teams that played in different conferences and might only have 1-2 teams that both have played. So, I understand wanting the transitive theory to count. But at some point, winning games has to matter – and while I understand it is against weaker competition, no team in college basketball this season other than the Redhawks will have 30 regular season wins.

I would rather see a regular season champion like Miami OH get a second chance over a middle of the road power conference team. Ohio State and Indiana both have played 12 games against Quad 1 teams and have only managed to win 2 of them. So, simply because Ohio State or Indiana beat #15th ranked Purdue but in 10 other games against likely tournament teams, they lost, I should assume that those teams have a better chance to win a tournament game than a mid-major team that went 30-0. Based on the regular season, the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers have a 16% chance of winning against a NCAA tournament team. Miami OH is a true unknown based on the regular season, but based on the fact that they went 30-0, I have to believe that they still have a better chance to win a tournament game than 16%. So, if I think Ohio State or Indiana is a tournament team that will be on the correct side of the bubble, I feel like I can find a place for the Redhawks.

I do admit that I noticed something that worried me about Miami’s at large hopes. They have no games against Quad 1 teams, and their only Quad 2 game is their 3 point home victory against Akron. The selection committee has not been kind to mid-major teams with a NET ranking in the 40s or 50s that have no Quad 1 wins. No one is making an argument that 25-6 Belmont (who is currently 54th in the NET) should be in with 0 Quad 1 wins so what is different about Miami (who is 53rd in the NET).

But at the end of the day, there is still a difference. Belmont lost 6 games. If Miami wins tonight and loses in the MAC tournament, they will have lost only once.

It makes me sad because I don’t normally agree with a lot that Stephen A Smith says (although to be fair, I think sometimes that is because he is so demonstrative and feels like he tries to be controversial to get ratings). So, I am not sure that I don’t agree with him, or if he is simply taking the contrarian side to get clicks. So it makes it even crazier that in this case, he might be the side of reason. He said this. “There is no reason on God’s green Earth that a team goes 30-0 in the regular season, only the 4th team in the last 35 years to do so, can’t make a field of 1 of 68 – that’s insane.” He then said basically if you go 30-0 and can’t make the NCAA Tournament, then the regular season means nothing – you just can’t do that.

Every team has a bad night. And the Miami Redhawks have managed to find a way to still win when they have a bad night. And the closer and closer they have gotten to an undefeated regular season, the more the pressure in the room rises. And somehow, they continue to find ways to win.

Do I have to re-think my stance if the Redhawks lose tonight (right now, they have a 6 point half-time lead)? Maybe. While I would have them in, I am not sure the committee would be as agreeable to let the Redhawks in with 2 losses. But if they hold on to get to 31-0, and then somehow get upset in the MAC championship, it would be ridiculous that the committee leave them out.

Yesterday was a sad day for me. Charlie and I were super excited for the James Madison game. The Sun Belt Conference Tournament looked like it would be a free-for-all where anyone could be. And the Dukes were on a streak – as they had won 7 of their last 8 games.

I was all ready to write my “The Dukes Are Hot” article to support them. But then as I have watched painfully a few times this season with my Boilermakers, the JMU shots stopped falling. The game was tied at 43 with about 16 minutes to play. And then a horrible stretch of 2 minutes happened where Tylik Weeks, Isaac Taveras and Tegra Izay from Southern Miss led a 9-0 run and never looked back on the way to an 86-80 victory to knock out the Dukes from the Sun Belt tournament.

Then, in the second game, one of the 6 teams tied for 2nd place, Arkansas State lost by 3 points to a Georgia Southern team that they had beaten by 17 points on the road in January. To put into perspective the type of upset this was, ESPN did a guide by Jeff Borzello, Myron Medcalf and Joe Lunardi to predict who will win all 31 conference tournaments. All three of them predicted Arkansas State to win the entire tournament – certainly not expecting them to lose in their first game.

It is a constant reminder that in March, it doesn’t matter who the favorite is. Vegas had JMU as a 2.5 point favorite and Arkansas State as a 7.5 point favorite. But the games are not played in a Vegas sportsbook or in an ESPN article, they are played on the court. And if you go cold for 2 minutes, your March can be over.

I feel bad for the Dukes – I was hoping that they were going to make a Cinderella run. But as I mentioned before, the Sun Belt is brutal. March is brutal. And when the month of madness is done, only one team will still be happy and 360 schools will see their dreams for a national championship at some point end.

Since I still haven’t figured out the box score dilemna, a lot of the fun comparisons that I do are harder. But with the conference tournaments starting, it is really important to start to figure out what we are watching and why.

There will be plenty of discussion for what I consider the 5 power conferences – the ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East and SEC will easily send multiple teams to the dance. It is certainly possible for a bid stealer to come from here, but there are too many scenarios to watch. If Michigan gets upset next week in the Big 10 tournament, there is still a pretty strong chance that the automatic bid will go to someone from the pool of Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, or Purdue. Maybe it goes to a more bubblish team like Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State or Indiana – but that likely means they were solidifying their place vs. stealing a bid from another team. We will assess if a bid is in danger as those conference tournaments progress next week.

The rest go into the following 4 groups

The one bid conferences

17 conferences do not have a single team in the top 80 of the NET. No team in history has received an at-large bid without being in the top 80, so it is pretty clear these teams are simply playing for their automatic bid. The regular season champs of all conferences are at least guaranteed a spot in the NIT, but obviously everyone wants to be dancing. So, if you lose in one of these tournaments, you are going to have to watch the dance on TV like all of us.

These conferences are America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big West, Coastal, Conference USA, Horizon, MAAC, MEAC, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC and the WAC.

Likely one bid conferences

These four conferences currently have a team in the NET Top 80. But their current league leader has a different statistic going against them. None of the 4 of these teams have a Quad 1 victory. It is nearly impossible to get into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team if you haven’t at least once beaten someone else in the field. These 4 in particular are ones the Lunatic tends to root for the regular season champion because it is heartbreaking for me to see a team that went 25-5 in the season and 15-1 in the conference have their tournament dreams crushed at this point.

• Missouri Valley – Belmont (NET 55)
• Southland – McNeese St (NET 61)
• Ivy – Yale (NET 67)
• Big South – High Point (NET 77)

Bubble Stealers

These might be the saddest of the group. They have a couple teams in the top 80, which means the regular season champion has a true competitor in the conference tournament

American

• South Florida (49) – they have a 2 game lead on the conference as well as a victory vs Utah St (and their road win at Tulsa also counts as a Quad 1 win). Probably not enough to get in as an at large – definitely dangerous enough to win a game in the tournament if they get in.
• Tulsa (50) – unlike South Florida, they do not have a Quad 1 win – so they likely are automatic bid or hoping the NIT keeps their season going.

MAC

• Miami OH (53) – they are the elephant in the room and will probably earn their own blog piece – I think they are in the tourney no matter what so it will be a true bid-stealer if someone else wins the MAC
• Akron (56) – Akron is 25-5 so certainly good enough to pull an upset. But they have no Quad 1 wins – so their only path to the dance is through the automatic bid.

Atlantic 10

• St Louis (NET 23) – they are likely in at 27-3 and ranked in both the top 25 of the NET and the polls. Their Quad 1 wins at VCU and Santa Clara don’t necessarily scream guaranteed but I suspect they are in if they fall next week.
• VCU (NET 46) – they played a bunch of Quad 1 games when compared to other mid-major conference teams, but their only victory to show for it was vs South Florida. They would at least be in the discussion but not convinced they can get in over a power conference bubble team. They are certainly dangerous enough to win the Atlantic 10 and steal a bid from someone else.
• Dayton (NET 69) – their claim to fame is they were responsible for one of St. Louis’ three losses. But with a NET at 69 and a WAB of 63, they need the Atlantic 10 tournament championship to keep dancing.

Multiple Bid conferences

That is the Mountain West and West Coast Conference – they are strong enough to likely send more than one team to the tournament, but still too small to be included as a power conference.

Mountain West – they have 6 teams in the top 80, leading with Utah State at 28th. San Diego State (45) and New Mexico (47) should at least get discussed as an at large team. Boise State (59), Nevada (72) and Grand Canyon (73) all at least have one Quad 1 win – but might be too far down the list on NET to be considered. I could see anything from 1-4 teams coming out of the Mountain West – so it could be a wild tournament to see who at least guarantees their spot.

West Coast – Gonzaga (6) and St. Mary’s (21) are both ranked in the top 25 for both the NET and the polls. It would be no surprise if these two meet up in Vegas to decide the title – which would make bubble teams happy since both are probably already in the field. I have seen some people say Santa Clara (41) might also be in the at-large consideration bubble. I am not convinced that the one Quad 1 victory over St Mary’s and a one point loss to St Louis is enough but they will make the conversation (and earn another Quad 1 win if they can get to the WCC final).

So if you are rooting for chaos, you want carnage to happen in the Mountain West, West Coast, Atlantic 10, MAC and American conference tournaments. If you are a fan of a bubble team, you should be rooting for Gonzaga, Utah State, St Louis, Miami OH and South Florida over the next week.

In the power conferences, there will be some critical games this week as teams on the bubble try to convince the Selection Committee they belong as one of the 37 best at-large teams. But in the world of 15 of the mid-major conferences, their regular seasons are over and this week is the beginning of their conference tournaments.

The simplest way of thinking of the NCAA Tournament is that it is a great 68 team single elimination tournament. But in reality, it is a 300+ team tournament with wild and different bracket structures that for many teams will be a single elimination tournament, with a strange break in the middle where a selection committee decides that 37 teams will get a second chance and then will reseed everyone. While I haven’t checked where teams stand, I suspect for many of the 15 conferences that have started the conference tournaments this week, these teams are playing games where if they lose, their season is over.

This can be heartbreaking for teams like 27-4 High Point or 26-5 Belmont, who won their conference regular season titles by multiple games, and now in order to get the rewards of playing for the NCAA National Championship, they must win their next 2-3 games. But that is the life of being in a mid-major conference – their champions do not get the benefits that teams like Michigan, Duke and Arizona get when their tournaments start.

If Nick Boyd from Wisconsin (who averages 20 pts a game) gets hot and blows up for 46 points to upset Michigan in the Big 10 tournament, the Wolverines will still be the #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. If Radford’s Dennis Parker Jr (who averages 18 pts a game) gets hot and blows up for 46 points to upset High Point, then High Point is heading to the NIT. There will be so much more attention to the power conference tournaments next week – but the most pressure-packed tournaments are starting right now.

Some conferences have structured their tournaments in ways to try to give those regular season champions. Some give their champions byes until the semi-finals so they only need to win 2 games. Some play the games on the campus of the better seed so that they have to huge advantage of playing in front of their home crowd.

The Horizon Conference does a fascinating tournament where they had their 10th and 11 seed play into the 1st round, the remaining ten teams play the first round today. Then, the worst two seeds play to get into the semi-finals, which then have the best remaining seed play that winner while the other two winners from the 1st round play each other.

But the one method that has caught my attention the most is done by the Sun Belt and the WCC. I think I have heard others refer to it this way – but I call it the gauntlet. The tournament bracket has two paths – the worst 4 teams play first. Waiting for the winners of that game is the next two teams, and so-on until you get to the semi-finals where the top two teams are waiting.

In principle, there is a lot to like about this tournament. If you are regular season champion Troy, you need to win two games to earn the conference’s automatic bid. If you were last place UL-Monroe, you need to win seven games to claim the championship. This tends to be unlikely – when a team goes 1-17 in the season, they don’t typically make a 7 game run (and they did not here as well – they lost by 7 to Old Dominion last night). So it has a redeeming quality that if a team is going to claim the championship from the regular season team, they have to basically win more games.

But the Sun Belt tournament has received some additional attention this year because of the closeness of the league. While I don’t think that a team from the Sun Belt is going to suddenly make the Elite 8 once the tournament begins, it should be an incredibly competitive tournament based on the conference standings. It is also the year that the gauntlet style tournament goes from redeeming to unfair. That will make sense once you see the bracket. And not just because I am rooting for JMU with my son.

SECOND ROUND – tonight (all games in Pensacola, FL – top line plays the winner from the previous top line)

• 9 – James Madison (9-9, 17-14, NET 209) vs 12 – Louisiana (7-11, 11-21, NET 310)
• 10 – Georgia Southern (8-10, 16-15, NET 252) vs 11 – Old Dominion (7-11, 12-20, NET 253)

THIRD ROUND – Thursday

• 8 – Southern Miss (9-9, 16-15, NET 223) vs top line winner
• 7 – Arkansas State (11-7, 20-11, NET 145) vs bottom line winner

FOURTH ROUND – Friday

• 5 – Texas State (11-7, 19-12, NET 234) vs top line winner
• 6 – South Alabama (11-7, 21-20, NET 177) vs bottom line winner

QUARTERFINALS – Saturday

• 4 – Appalachian State (11-7, 19-12, NET 184) vs top line winner
• 3 – Coastal Carolina (11-7, 19-12, NET 217) vs bottom line winner

SEMIFINALS – Sunday

• 1 – Troy (12-6, 20-11, NET 138) vs top line winner
• 2 – Marshall (11-7, 19-12, NET 163) vs bottom line winner

FINAL – Monday at 6 pm on ESPN2

That’s right. Troy won the conference with a 12-6 record and then there was a 6 team tie for second just one game back. So, because of the tie-breaker system (that I am not sure I understand and certainly not going to try to explain), Arkansas State finished in a tie for 2nd and will need to win 5 games in 5 days to claim the Sun Belt automatic bid, while Marshall will only need to win 2 games in 2 days to claim the trip to the NCAA Championship.

Friday night, Coastal Carolina was down 1 with 10 seconds to play at JMU when Joshua Beadle drove to the lane and then sank a last-second, step-back fade-away jumper from 18 feet to win the game. If Beadle missed that shot, Coastal would have fell from 3rd to 8th and needed to win 5 games in the tournament instead of only 3. That’s right – a last second buzzer beater was the difference of having to play 2 extra games.

According to the NET, Arkansas State is the 2nd best team in the conference. But because of the 6 game tie-break (and apparently the bad luck that 4 of their losses came to JMU, Marshall, Troy and South Alabama), they will have to win 5 games while Marshall only has to win 2 games.

Lets put this closeness into perspective. If you look at the 5 power conferences

• ACC – Duke has a 2 game lead over Virginia and a 3 game lead over Miami
• Big 12 – Arizona has a 2 game lead over Houston and a 3 game lead over Texas Tech
• Big 10 – Michigan has a 3 game lead over Illinois
• Big East – UConn and St. John’s are tied with Villanova 3 games back
• SEC – Florida has a 3 game lead over Alabama and Arkansas

So, if the major conferences played the same gauntlet.

The teams 3 games behind the regular season champion would need to play.

• ACC – 3 games – bye to the quarterfinals (3rd)
• Big 12 – 3 games – bye to the quarterfinals (3rd)
• Big 10 – 2 games – bye to the semi-finals (2nd)
• Big East – 3 games – bye to the quarterfinals (3rd)
• SEC – 2-3 games based on tiebreak – worst is bye to the quarterfinals (3rd)

The last team in the Sun Belt that was 3 games behind the regular season champion will play 6 games since JMU finished 9th (well tied for 8th). And the 6 teams tied just 1 game behind the champion have to play somewhere between 2 – 5 games. That is just brutal for a conference where the only team that will go to the dance is the one that wins the final next Monday night.

The Sun Belt gauntlet should lead to an incredible week of close games between a conference that has several teams all of the same talent level. And it certainly gives Troy, the regular season champion an easier path as it is designed. I guess there is a question about a streaking team getting comfortable with the neutral court – but they will still potentially be playing their 4th or 5th game in that many days. But in general, it has to be better to only win 2 games in a row vs. 3-6 games.

But if you are a fan of Arkansas State, it is a little heartbreaking to realize that if they had won one of the two overtime losses to South Alabama this season, they would be watching the gauntlet as everyone beats each other up for the previous 5 days until Sunday’s semi-final instead of starting the gauntlet on Thursday and having to be the team beating everyone up for the next 5 days. Of course, you could probably say that for any of the 6 teams that finished in the 6-way tie – they all had a close game somewhere that they probably wish they could have back now that the gauntlet is set.

If they were in the Big 10, it probably wouldn’t matter since a six way tie for 2nd would likely lead to at large bids for all 6 teams. But in the Sun Belt, you either win the gauntlet or your season is over. That is the brutal nature of Mid-Major Madness.

First of all, watching my Boilermakers be in what appears to be a free-fall as they have lost 6 of their last 11 games has been tough to watch. Knowing how good that Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer have been over the last 4 years has made me want this senior year to go better for them than it did. There is certainly no reason to be embarrassed about being one of the top 15 teams in the country. But when you start the season as the pre-season #1 team in the country, you are thinking about winning championships and not simply being a ranked team. Obviously, they still have time to fix things. At this point for the Boilers, the only games that really matter are the ones after March 10th (since I suspect that the seniors would love one last chance at a Big 10 tournament championship).

After Ohio State totally beat up my Boilers in a game the Buckeyes clearly needed for their post-season hopes, I felt that I should at least start making progress on getting the basketball box scores – since that typically takes a couple days.

So, I wasn’t too happy to find that after pulling a day of games that I was getting errors accessing the NCAA stats website. Based on some of my research, it looks like they have instituted new rules about accessing their site that blocks web-scrapers like the one I have written. I am very disappointed in this, since I have been doing this for years so that I can build my handicapping models. It also means that I can’t see some of the links I provide to all of you that list some of the statistics like the WAB and NET rankings. It looks like there might be some paid versions that do it, but I don’t know that I have the time or the desire to pay the costs for that solution.

So, I need to set some expectations. Since the NCAA clearly doesn’t want me to use their site for this, I will look for another option. But that means that I might simply not have the time to re-write my data collector. I will apologize in advance to all of you who use the summaries that I create – I really hope that I can find an alternative, but with only 13 days before the tournament, it just might not be realistic.

For those of you who simply like the blog, the bracketology and the crazy handicapping (and of course, the basketball pool itself), do not worry – I will still provide most of my normal pages of the website. It simply might not have the research page with the statistical based cheat sheet that I provide.

Thinking about this makes me sadder than when my Boilers lost on Sunday. I might simply have to watch the awesome game tonight between #2 Arizona and #6 Iowa State. Since #1 Duke is beating NC State by 27 points, I can probably find something better to watch until the Big 12 battle comes on.

Because bracketology has become such a popular thing and because the Selection Committee has been criticized in the past for a lack of clarity into their decisions, the NCAA has done a few things to try to provide a more open environment. One thing they did was they do a mock selection committee session with the press to allow them to go through the process that the committee does – which would be such a fun thing for a crazed basketball fan like the Lunatic. But the big thing that they did was they give us a preview into their thoughts by releasing their top 16 with 3 weeks left in the season. So, lets look at what they did.

1 seeds

• Michigan (AP 1, Coaches 1, NET 1)
• Duke (AP 3, Coaches 3, NET 2)
• Arizona (AP 4, Coaches 4, NET 3)
• Iowa State (AP 6, Coaches 6, NET 6)

2 seeds

• UConn (AP 5, Coaches 5, NET 10)
• Houston (AP 2, Coaches 2, NET 8)
• Illinois (AP 10, Coaches 10, NET 4)
• Purdue (AP 7, Coaches 7, NET 7)

3 seeds

• Florida (AP 12, Coaches 11, NET 9)
• Kansas (AP 8, Coaches 12, NET 13)
• Nebraska (AP 9, Coaches 9, NET 11)
• Gonzaga (AP 11, Coaches 8, NET 5)

4 seeds

• Texas Tech (AP 13, Coaches 13, NET 17)
• Michigan State (AP 15, Coaches 15, NET 12)
• Vanderbilt (AP 19, Coaches 18, NET 15)
• Virginia (AP 14, Coaches 14, NET 16)

So, nothing too surprising. The only NET team left out was Louisville (#14). The only AP team left out was North Carolina (#16). The only Coaches team left out was St. John’s (#16).

Basically, if the polls and NET rankings agreed, the committee did as well. Michigan, Duke and Arizona were all top 4 teams – and so they were all 1 seeds. Purdue was 7th in all 3 rankings, so they were a 2 seed. Florida and Nebraska were all between 9-12, so they were 3 seeds. And Virginia was between 14-16, so they were a 4 seed. The only place where this didn’t happen was Iowa St – who were 6th in all 3 rankings but took the final 1 seed.

The committee was a little bit more variable when they didn’t agree. They seemed to agree with the polls when it came to UConn, Gonzaga and Texas Tech. But they seemed to agree with the NET ranking when it came to ranking Houston, Illinois, Kansas and Vanderbilt. But still, no one seemed to ever get a ranking that was more than 1 seed line away from any of their rankings.

And that probably should all make sense. The polls are supposed to be people who really know basketball – and so if they all vote and come up with their top 16, the fact the committee agreed with that makes sense. Same thing with the computer rankings, which are supposed to be using all the data to come up with the best teams.

One other piece of interest is some research I have done on the selection committee process. According to Jeff Borzello’s ESPN article, there are seven statistics that they look at. Three are considered resume-based – KPI, ESPN’s Strength of Record, and Wins above Bubble (WAB). Three are predictive – BPI, KenPom, and BartTorvik. The seventh is the NCAA’s NET ranking. NCAA Vice President of Basketball Dan Gavitt said the committee tends to lean towards resume metrics in selecting the field while predictive metrics become more important in seeding debates. But he highlighted the growing importance of WAB when it comes to inclusion in the field. The Lunatic will have to keep that in mind as he does his bracketology.

But there is one thing that has happened since then that really puts something into perspective. How hard it is to consistently win in college basketball, and the amazing task that the eventual champion will perform by winning 6 straight games in March.

I think while we could argue about 1 or 2 teams, these are clearly the top 16 teams at that time in college basketball. So, let see how they have done in the following week since the rankings came out.

• Michigan (L vs 2 – Duke (N), W vs Minnesota, W at 7 – Illinois)
• Duke (W vs 1 – Michigan (N), W at Notre Dame, W vs 16 – Virginia)
• Arizona (W at 6 – Houston, W at Baylor, W vs 10 – Kansas)
• Iowa State (L at BYU, W at Utah, L vs 13 – Texas Tech)
• UConn (W at Villanova, W vs St. John’s, W vs Seton Hall)
• Houston (L vs 3 – Arizona, L at 10 – Kansas, W vs Colorado)
• Illinois (L at UCLA, L vs 1 – Michigan)
• Purdue (L vs 14 – Michigan State)
• Florida (W at Ole Miss, W at Texas, W vs Arkansas)
• Kansas (L vs Cincinnati, W vs 6 – Houston, L at 3 – Arizona)
• Nebraska (W vs Penn State, W vs Maryland, W at USC)
• Gonzaga (W vs Pacific, W vs Portland, L at St. Mary’s)
• Texas Tech (W vs Kansas State, W vs Cincinnati, W at 4 – Iowa State)
• Michigan State (W vs Ohio State, W at 7 – Purdue)
• Vanderbilt (L vs Tennessee, W vs Georgia, L at Kentucky)
• Virginia (W vs Miami FL, W vs NC State, L at 2 – Duke)

So, of the top 16 teams, 9 of them couldn’t even get through their next 2-3 games before losing to someone (and 5 of those teams lost to teams not part of the top 16). And only 4 have managed to stay undefeated with a win over a fellow top 16 team (Duke, Arizona, Texas Tech and Michigan St). 5 of the top 16 teams have actually lost twice since the rankings were released.

To win the national championship, you need to win 6 straight games. And you are going to have to do that against the best teams in the country – as the last week has shown, it is hard enough to simply win 6 straight games, especially if you are not playing at home.

It should be a great tournament. So excited for March to be here.

It could just be the excitement that the tournament is just around the corner. It could be a little bit of being overwhelmed with all the things that I would like to get done over the next two weeks. It could be simply as the Lunatic gets older, the idea of sleep deprivation becomes scarier and scarier.

I was so excited that I finally got the pool entry forms tested on Wednesday, because it meant I could move on to getting all the statistics I use to do my bracketology (and eventually provide all the data to you).

So Thursday, as I thought briefly about starting to figure out my data pull scripts, I realized that Purdue was hosting Michigan State in a big game – I just needed to watch it. I will just work on the site after the game. After Braden Smith’s last second three pointer ended up missing giving the Spartans an impressive 2 point road victory at Mackey Arena, the Lunatic decided that basketball stats would have to wait for another evening – it was time for sleep. I can always work on it on Friday.

So Friday, I come home, enjoy watching the Pitt and 9-1-1 while we eat dinner, and get a text from my son Charlie at college. He has amazing tickets at Atlantic Union Bank Center to watch his Dukes play against Coastal Carolina. So, of course, I changed my mind, and instead of opening up a Jupyter Notebook to pull the schedules, I turned to ESPN.com to watch the game.

Would it have made more sense to watch the Michigan / Illinois game if I was going to watch games instead of pulling basketball box scores. Of course, it would make more sense to watch two of the teams that might be able to win the national championship. But Michigan was already up 8 points, on their way to a 14 point road victory over Illinois. So, I watched the Dukes. Sadly for me and my son, the Chanticleers’ Joshua Beadle drove to the free throw line, and hit a step-back fade-away jumper with 0.9 seconds left to give Coastal a 1 point victory and end the Dukes’ 6 game winning streak. Another evening gone – the Lunatic needed to go to sleep. After all, there will certainly be late nights in March – I am too old to start this sleep deprivation in February. I can pull the stats over the weekend.

So, I wake up Saturday morning, get dressed, and immediately head out to the Club at Viniterra. We have had so much snow and ice in Richmond, so with the temperature being in the mid-60s, I couldn’t resist a nice day on the course. I really struggled through the first five holes, but managed to get a birdie on the 12th hole, a 140 yard par 3, on my way to scoring a 96. So, now that it is almost 4:30 in the afternoon, I figure I probably should start getting my stats.

Or – I could blog. Lets face it, that is my passion anyways. I could watch #2 Arizona vs #14 Kansas – but the Wildcats have already jumped out to a 23-8 lead on the Jayhawks. Maybe I can watch #4 Iowa State play #16 Texas Tech, especially since I am interested to see how the Red Raiders can do without their star JT Toppin, who sadly had a season-ending knee injury.

Should I be pulling basketball box scores? Probably. At this moment, I don’t know if the NCAA has made any changes to their website. If everything is the same, it should only take me 5-6 hours to pull down all the games. But if they have made changes, my codes might no longer work, and then the Lunatic will be sad.

Maybe I will look into it. But most likely, I will watch the Cyclones and Red Raiders play while I continue to blog. So, as I said, I am a little distracted. Welcome to the mind of the Crazed Lunatic!!!

It has taken me a lot longer than normal, but the most important part of the website appears to be ready – I have fixed all the database links so that the pages you use to register for the pool and enter your picks all work and point to the new 2026 tables. And so, I am happy to announce the 2026 Stomp the Lunatic tournament!!!

The Lunatic is back for another month of sleep deprivation, looking through stat sheets in a foolish attempt to show he can predict college basketball games.  This will likely end in a thorough stomping, but it should be a wild and entertaining ride.

It is a good thing for the Lunatic – there is already so much to blog about. It looks like we are going to have an incredible tournament. Last year at this point in the season, we had just 5 power conference teams with 4 or less losses (Auburn, Duke, St. John’s, Houston and Florida) and the best mid-major team looked like St. Mary’s at 27-4.

Currently, we have Duke, Arizona and Michigan all at 25-2, UConn at 25-3, Virginia at 24-3, and Iowa State, Houston and Nebraska with only 4 losses. And we have Gonzaga and St. Louis with only 2 losses from the mid-majors. Not to mention we have Miami OH still undefeated. And I haven’t even mentioned teams like Purdue, Florida and St. John’s that were pre-season top 5 teams.

Duke, Michigan and Arizona have rightfully earned the right to claim they are favorites, but it really looks like it could be a more wide open tournament than usual. Of course, that could be simply because I am so behind on getting ready for the tournament that I just don’t know how badly teams like the Blue Devils, Wolverines and Wildcats are going to crush their opponents on their way to Indianapolis.

I haven’t even tried to start pulling box scores. Hopefully, the NCAA hasn’t made too many changes to their websites. Normally at this point, I have already started thinking about what sleeper teams are out there – at this rate, I might not even start my bracketology until championship week. Hopefully not, but there is still so much work to do for the Lunatic to get ready.

I will eventually send out an email to invite you all to Stomp the Lunatic!  But I can’t send out an email stating that it must be March if it is still February.  Not to mention we all know that I am horrible at managing my email lists.

That being said, Selection Sunday is just 18 days away.  March 15th will be here before we know it. Have no fears – while the Lunatic might have tons of edits that he wants to make to his website, the Lunatic will be ready for the NCAA Tournament to start.

While it is certainly not necessary, the registration link is live for this year’s tournament (that being said, it is typically easier to register when you enter your picks). The Lunatic’s favorite time of the year is almost here. And even though the Lunatic might still have lots to do to fully be ready for his yearly sleep deprivation project, I hope that all of you are ready!!!! March is almost here – which means it is time to STOMP THE LUNATIC!!!!!